The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 52-48, in from 54-46 at the poll conducted from October 4 to 12 in the lead-up to the referendum, from primary votes of Labor 35% (down one), Coalition 37% (up two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). This is the narrowest two-party Newspoll result since the election, eclipsing two of the last four results which had it at 53-47.
Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have taken a tumble, down four on approval to 42% and up six on disapproval to 52%. The net rating of minus 10 is substantially weaker than his previous worst results for the term of minus one, likewise recorded in two of the previous four polls. Peter Dutton is at 37% approval and 50% disapproval, which is respectively up two and down three on the previous Newspoll result, but equal to the poll before. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 46-36, in from 51-31 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1220.
Also out today was the latest federal poll from RedBridge Group which has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54.1-45.9 in the pollster’s previous result from early September. The primary votes were Labor 34% (down three), Coalition 35% (down one), Greens 14% (up one) and others 17% (up three). The poll was conducted October 27 to November 2 from a sample of 1205.
https://apple.news/AGYEkk9yFRjuQZvJLY80q1w, NuScale SMR hailed by opposition cancelled (costs, USD/$9.3B for 462MW, supposedly 70% higher than Csiro projects looking at 2030), “Industry experts say …, that nuclear energy is more expensive than alternatives and in a best-case scenario could not play a role in Australia for more than a decade, and probably not before 2040.”
Same method as above would put Max Chandler-Mather in Ryan at the mercy of LNP preferences in Griffith.
C@tmomma:
Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 7:15 pm
[‘Mavis,
Projection.’]
I take it that’s the best you’ve got.
Elizabeth Watson-Brown would be safe enough in Ryan, though.
Good to see a victim get some justice.
Mavis @ Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 7:08 pm:
“Macarthur:
It’s good to see that you’re posting under your original screen persona. You won’t be hassled about the issue by me in the future!”
==============
No worries, thank you.
I received a message from Aunty that today’s HC decision re. detainees
could be terminal for Labor – what is it they’re on? I’m impressed with this HC, making a decision with such alacrity. And although the costs will be significant, Dutton can take no advantage therefrom.
‘Arky says:
Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 7:02 pm
Pocock and Lambie reminding everyone, vis a vis the Industrial Relations Bill, that they are not left wing on all things….’
===================
Pocock has demonstrated a yen for gutting IR laws to the benefit of the bosses.
The pattern is clear.
So if Dotard walks the plank, who will the Repugs put forward? Surely not a woman.
Nikki Haley emerged as a power center on the debate stage, giving a forceful performance that took advantage of the night’s focus on foreign policy to present a clear and hawkish vision of America’s role in the world.
Leaning into her experience as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, she staked out expansive, interventionist positions that cut against Mr. Trump’s “America First” foreign policy vision.
She backed Ukraine to the hilt. She said she would support military strikes against Iran. And she said the United States needed to support Israel with “whatever they need and whenever they need it.”
Most of the other candidates gave versions of the same responses — but Ms. Haley had the edge of having represented the United States on the world stage.
When the candidates were asked what they would urge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to do at this moment, Mr. DeSantis said he “would be telling” him to eliminate Hamas. Ms. Haley said she did, in fact, tell Mr. Netanyahu to “finish them.”
As Ms. Haley vies with Mr. DeSantis to establish herself as the field’s Trump alternative, some of the party’s biggest donors were closely watching her performance as they weighed whether to spend millions on her behalf in a desperate final effort to beat Mr. Trump.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/09/us/politics/republican-presidential-debate-takeaways.html
We’re lucky clem doesn’t get to gatekeep who votes Labor the way he wants to or we’d have no Labor seats at all.
Optus escalate the PR disaster .. offers no compensation just an extra 200gig of data that no one needs or uses as they already have more than they need ( on average).. worthless gesture that highlights their incompetence.. & gesture than costs them ZERO
Yeah, Optus going from “no compensation” to “here, have this free shit you don’t need and which costs us nothing” is not helping them. Weird decision making. Feels like the outside world isn’t getting into Optus management’s insulated bubble.
Arky @ Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 7:57 pm:
“Yeah, Optus going from “no compensation” to “here, have this free shit you don’t need and which costs us nothing” is not helping them. Weird decision making. Feels like the outside world isn’t getting into Optus management’s insulated bubble.”
==============
They need to recruit someone from a profession renowned for having its finger on the pulse of public opinion, like politics. 😐
Sceptic:
Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 7:49 pm
[‘Optus escalate the PR disaster .. offers no compensation just an extra 200gig of data that no one needs or uses as they already have more than they need (on average).. worthless gesture that highlights their incompetence.. & gesture than casts them ZERO’]
Agree, Optus is intransigent, knowing that few will change their provider. I think the clue is to keep $5oo under the mattress. Pepys.
Mavis, 7.08
“As I’ve suggested before, it’s you – not me – whom throws their weight around on this site, behaving like a grand inquisitor, interrogating anyone who has the temerity to criticise, expressly or even impliedly, your treasured party. Talk about projection writ large!”
Dear Black Pot,
You’re as pure as the driven snow !
See you in heaven (or somewhere like a gated community perhaps)
40 degrees in Adelaide tomorrow then a mild weekend and week. Earliest 40 degrees for years.
Holdenhillbilly @ #1217 Thursday, November 9th, 2023 – 8:00 pm
*cries* Glad I stocked up on some ice cream and ice blocks that should be frozen by tomorrow.
nuclear…. could not play a role in Australia for more than a decade, and probably not before 2040
———————————-
Which is when we might need it.
But impossible to talk anything the Coalition says seriously when so many of them have flocked like groupies to Petersens fossil fuel wankference. You’ll never find a more pathetic bunch of scorned childish brats in one place. Proven wrong again and again they cling desperately and angrily to their dumb – rather condemn ecosystems and humanity than swallow their pride.
VCT Et3e @ #1202 Thursday, November 9th, 2023 – 7:17 pm
So .. very much like the AUKUS submarines, then?
Let’s all just pray that Albo can placate China for that long. So far, so good … 🙂
Jeeeesus. It’s not even Summer yet!
Asha says:
Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 8:52 pm
40 degrees in Adelaide tomorrow
Jeeeesus. It’s not even Summer yet!
_______
Melbourne has had mild summers lately but if things turn I will get a Tasmanian summer bolt hole for sure. Head down there for just 3 months a year. Should be no danger of sprouting a second cranium.
Can an PB economics types explain this?
Albo shown on 7:30 claiming an achievement & goal of his Government is to increase Australian employment .. laudable yes? meanwhile the RBA is busily trying to increase unemployment by raising interest rates to reduce consumption to reduce inflation.
Seems to be a mismatch there… somewhere.
Q: Earliest 40 degrees for years.
Earliest ever I heard….surprise surprise.
AUKUS Submarine Post of the Day: Part One
I see that C@t has gone in to her predictable swoon over the latest AUKUS annouceable.
Also waving an angry little fist at Socrates.
I don’t see any difference in substance between the announcement that the first two – and ‘second hand’ virginia class subs being now likely to be purchased in ‘around’ 2032 and 2035 and the initial March announcement of a transfer into RAN service by 2033 and 2036 respectively. The purchase date and the service entry date are nearly always two seperate occurrences in an overall process. Even something as relatively unsophisticated as a Heavy Sea Lift Ship like HMAS Choules had a purchase date from the UK many months prior to it being commissioned into the RAN.
More interesting is that the third submarine purchase will be (1) new and (2) designated as a Virginia Class Block VII (which was summarised as being in effect similar to the Block Vs now beginning to be build – and the Block VIIs slated to follow later this decade – BUT with the 4 missile silo ‘Virginia Payload Module’ removed. Leaving these boast with the two smaller silos that are situated f’ward the sail in existing Virginia class (Blocks I – IV) boats.
This announcement – or ‘slip’ – said today by the visiting American Admiral isn’t interesting just because it foreshadows Australia getting at least one brand new nuclear sub from America prior to the SSN-AUKUS class coming into service the following decade. Although that aspect is of interest.
Rather, what makes these comments most interesting is that they perhaps provide a very small and brief window into the current USN thinking of the future force structure of its nuclear submarine fleet.
Until the start of the Virginia Block V build (which is only just getting underway now) the US ‘Attack Class’ submarines have – although also multipurpose – had as their key function the ‘hunter-killer’ role: prowling the ocean for soviet and now Russian and chinese SSBNs. What is also clear is that as these boats get bigger, they are less suitable for this primary role. In fact the office established for submarine strategic planning has straight up stated – in open source documents – that the Block V and VI boats – together with the future even larger replacement SSN(X) boats that are slated to start coming into service from 2043 are simply too big and unsuitable to be referred to as Attack class submarines.
So it is interesting that the US Navy are clearly thinking about a ‘Block VII’ boat which is going to revert to the current size of the Virginia class boats in service. This ‘Block VII” is unlikely to be a ‘one off’ boat build. Nor is it likely to be a small batch build to sell to the RAN as an interim.
What I suspect this comment really foreshadows is the the USN navy is likely to split is current 66 boat SSN requirement in half – with a larger class of boat undertaking both cruise-missile boat and ‘seabed warfare’ functions as their primary missions – with a smaller core and genuinely ‘hunter-killer’ boats sticking to their existing primary mission statement.
I think the implications for the envisaged SSN-AUKUS Class of this pivot are devastatingly bad news for Australian shipbuilding. In short IF America is really going to revert to building smaller ‘attack class subs’ with a view of always having around 30 of them in service AND America starts selling Australia ones ‘off the shelf’ by 2038 then there will be no future SSN-AUKUS class. At least not any boats built in Australia (over ever coming into RAN service, even if some are ultimately build in Britain).
This all illustrates how cac-handed and stupid the original commitment to AUKUS was back in 2021. I’m not going to re-litigate all of the established arguments against AUKUS as a concept in this post. For the remainder of it i will simply start from a basic premise: “IF we must AUKUS, then we should so this right – by all three countries”.
I think the availability evidence establishes these points at least:
1. If America does sell us nuclear submarines from its existing stock, it will suffer a decade long capability gap until its increased production goals match and then start to surpass the inevitable decommissioning of boats in its aging fleet of Los Angeles and Sea Wolf class boats;
2. Britain still cant build a nuclear submarine without the close support, assistance and supervision of the Americans. Even then every boat in every class has been built late, over cost and with ongoing development issues that plague them throughout their service life. In other words they are batting at ZERO for 34 boats on the ‘on time, on budget and fully operational’ stakes;
3. The SSN-AUKUS – even if it breaks the mould and is ready for steel cutting in a decade will still not enter service in Britain until 2038 and RAN service until 2043. However, the closest thing to a ‘sure fire’ 20 year bet is that those benchmarks will not be reached. In fact – a further side bet that is also a ‘sure thing’ – by 2033 it will be obvious that there are going to be blow outs in both schedule and costs.
4. Even under ‘the plan’ nothing is going to happen in Adelaide regarding a local build for a decade.
5. If America is going to green light a smaller ‘Block VII” Virginia Class boat, it is likely to do so after first procuring 10 Block Vs and a further 10-15 odd Block VII boats. With the envisaged increase to over 2.5 boats per year by 2030 (of which one MUST be a Columbia Class SSBN) it is likely that the build of this Block VII class will start in around 2033 at the latest.
In other words at exactly the time as (1) Australian has donated several billion to BAE for the design work of the future submarine class they were always going to build to replace the Astute Class, BUT (2) before any construction work gets underway in Adelaide for a local build, (3) at a time when the timeframes for delivery are being rapidly pushed back.
In those circumstances it will be predictably inevitable that the Australian SSN-AUKUS class will be cancelled and that we simply buy Virginia Class boats ‘off the shelf’ from America.
I repeat, I am not going to get into the weeds and point out in detail that the true cost of acquiring American submarines is not the money – but the fact that we will end up promising to make these submarines available to US strategic command for its strategic interests, no matter what they are.
However, even putting aside such considerations this is all one giant missed opportunity to ‘do AUKUS (if we must) right.
Sceptic @ #1223 Thursday, November 9th, 2023 – 9:16 pm
You are assuming governments work on your behalf. Increasingly, they do not. They tell you what you want to hear, while putting people in positions of power that will do precisely the opposite.
It is astonishing how long it takes before some people realize that governments with a majority of either of the major parties work primarily on behalf of their financial supporters, not you. Unless by chance you or your family happens to have an interest in a fossil fuel company or two.
If you want government that works on your behalf, elect more independents.
In economic policy the fiscal and regulatory levers are king, and monetary policy just isn’t very useful when you don’t need to defend a fixed exchange rate. The optimal approach would be to
set the official interest rate at zero and keep it there
stop issuing Australian Government Securities (they aren’t necessary – they are just a slightly different type of financial asset for financial institutions to hold compared to a regular Exchange Settlement Account at the Reserve Bank)
rely on fiscal and regulatory policy to get the outcomes you want (stable prices, labour under-utilization below 2 percent, good quality public services and infrastructure, healthy ecosystems, etc.).
I see that Andrew_Earlwood has gone into his predictable contemptuous crouch, before springing to the defense of Socrates because I dared to criticise his support crew.
*yawn*
Fyi, it was no ‘swoon’, it was laying the bait to see who would bite and find some way to continue to criticise AUKUS and what is a positive development. And bite you did.
Don’t you get bored being so predictable, Andrew_Earlwood?
Btw, I’m organising a PB Xmas Get-Together for December 2/3 at Abduls. You can come if you want. 😐
In those circumstances it will be predictably inevitable that the Australian SSN-AUKUS class will be cancelled and that we simply buy Virginia Class boats ‘off the shelf’ from America.
Spinning a self-serving narrative may work in court, Andrew_Earlwood, but you don’t have any more knowledge than the man on the street that this will happen. Despite the certainty with which you proclaim it.
Anyway, I’m going to bed now, so you can rain down your vitriol on me again if you like, if it makes you feel better. I’m beyond caring, except in so much as it reflects more on you than me. That helps me sleep better at night to know that I have maintained an independent perspective and haven’t succumbed to your overbearing denunciations. Again.
Part 2: Doing AUKUS Right (if we must).
1. If that F’wit Morrison didn’t cancel the Attack class contract outright (and in a way that was calculated to burn as many Australian-French bridges as possible) back in September 2021 but simply announced a commitment to build the first four boat block as planned and on schedule alongside the AUKUS nuclear pivot annouceable, then all three countries under AUKUS would have stood to benefit big time in the medium to longer term, as I set out below.
2. Further to point 1, even assuming Albo’s ‘snap decision’ to immediately back AUKUS was correct, nonetheless Labor was completely craven in not making support conditional on the Government committing to proceeding with the initial Attack class build whilst all the nuclear submarine details were nutted out. No doubt this would have led to a predictable ScoMo set of lies about it being obsolete and hence unnecessary, but these argument were paper thin and capable of being defeated politically in short order. If only Labor was on top it is brief and showed some balls. Alas.
3. Assuming that Australia did spend this decade in recruiting, training, employing a submarine construction workforce and giving that workforce the real work expertise of building at least four very very large submarines, then it would be in a position to bring some real heft to the table in negotiations over the composition of a joint – three navy – attack class submarine build program for the period 2033-2063.
Amongst other things, the SSN-AUKUS class will carry exactly the same weapons envisaged by the Attack Class, the British SSN(G) and American SSN(X) classes. The sensors in the SSN-AUKUS are successors and within the same family as those that were to go into the Attack Class. The combat system will be a successor to both the Virginia Class combat system (currently also used on the Collins class and slated for the Attack Class) and the UK combat system (which has American DNA all through it).
4. Therefore, because we would have built four large subs, and have recent experience in fitting all the relevant weapons, sensors and combats systems we could have made a realistic bid to provide the front sections/modules for every SSN-AUKUS constructed and brought into service across three navies. Approximately 50 ‘front of boat’ sections, with each of eight Aussie boat also being assembled and fitted out in Adelaide.
5. What is now potentially clear – assuming that the talk of a smaller Virginia Class Block VII is a real thing – is that going forward all three navies requirements for an attack class sub are effectively the same. Therefore there no proper basis for separate classes of attack class subs in AUKUS. This new ‘Block VII’ really represents an epic failure in thinking. Block VII should equal SSN-AUKUS. And all four shipbuilding yards should be involved in the build of this common design.
6. America would benefit in many ways. Firstly, it no longer face having to compromise its own capability for a decade in order to provide interim boats for the RAN. Secondly, even by 2033, US Submarine boat building still faces an epic backlog – having to bring in the final 10 Columbia Class SSBNs over the following 10 years, finish its Block VIs, build as many ‘Block VIIs’ as possible, and start building the SSNX class. If ‘Block VII” became SSN-AUKUS – with both australia and the UK providing up to 25% of the work for each boat, that would really take the pressure off them. As allies, shouldn’t we be helping out, rather than just take take take?
7. If Block VII became rolled into SSN-AUKUS BAE Marine would be saved the ignominy of fucking up yet another new class of nuclear submarine. they can only build nuclear subs under close American supervision, and having the Americans take the lead role in the program is the best chance the Brit’s will ever have of ‘getting this right’. Plus, just like Australia they’d stand to get a big slice of work out of a three navy build.
8. Australia would also avoid the worst of the albatross that is BAE marine as the lead contractor.
And THAT dear Bludgers would be AUKUS done Right (if we must).
“ Btw, I’m organising a PB Xmas Get-Together for December 2/3 at Abduls. You can come if you want. ”
Comrade, id love to join you for an AUKUS free luncheon, but alas I’m likely to be stuck in Nowra running my last trial of the year; however because Nowra isn’t that far away it is also possible that I’ll be home for the weekend.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/09/small-modular-nuclear-reactor-that-was-hailed-by-coalition-as-future-cancelled-due-to-rising-costs
Small modular nuclear reactor that was hailed by Coalition as future cancelled due to rising costs.
Opposition climate and energy spokesperson had pointed to SMRs as a solution to Australia’s energy needs, but experts raise questions over price tag.
Labor are proved right again as always.
Andrew_Earlwood:
Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 9:30 pm
I’m sure you’re unaware of the extent of which your posts are so boring? Have you considered subscribing to the “Gunplot” site?
https://www.gunplot.net
We’ll see…
A Liberals’ own Killing Season, Shaun Micallef returns and more drama: ABC announces new offerings for 2024
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/nov/09/abc-australia-new-shows-2024-premieres-liberal-coalition-documentary-shaun-micallef-newsreader-total-control
Meanwhile: SMRs still do not exist, and are now off even further in to the future because they are not economically viable OR invented yet.
Vote 1, the party of unicorns.
The AUKUS sub deal won’t happen either.
Nor will the S3 tax cuts.
Just saying.
Meanwhile in the Age, Annika Smethurst runs the LNP talking points yet again:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-suburban-rail-loop-offers-allan-a-rare-political-opportunity-few-leaders-get-20231109-p5eip3.html
Independent always! (Always regurgitating Costello’s party line….)
The good people of Victoria have voted on this twice now, and what doo you know, they voted against Costello/Smethurst 3 elections in a row, in increasing landslides.
IS there any chance reporters could report rather than campaign?
More tinkering at the edges of housing policy from the WA government. Short-stay accommodation should be restricted to primary residences only, no letting out secondary properties. AirBNB needs to get back to being what it was originally for – swapping residences with other travellers, while you travel yourself; or running a lodging house to supplement your income. It shouldn’t be taking houses off the market which would otherwise be long-term rentals or available to first home-buyers to buy.
Andrew Earlwood 9.30pm and 10.09pm
Thanks for your comments which appear technically sound. A Virginia Block VII delivered as SSN AUKUS would make logical sense.
1. Like you though, I do not expect to see any SSN construction occur now in Adelaide even if not starting till after 2035. Australia being used to assist in behind schedule SSN maintenance for the USN and later RAN operated SSNs is far more likely. If we were really going to be building SSNs in Australia we would be doing a range of preparatory steps which we show no sign of doing. Therefore I assume SSN construction here is not really happening.
2. Despite the obvious logic, I question whether Australia (or UK) would ever be permitted to build Virginia Block VIIs outside USA. Too much of the supply chain is in USA and I can’t see this changing. We still haven’t seen the US laws required for it even drafted, let alone passed. Time is running out.
3. Even with US permission, UK would IMO be reluctant to agree to a switch from a UK SSN AUKUS design to a US Virginia Block VII design. There is nothing in it for UK. The UK are broke, and want to use AUKUS as a vehicle to fund the design development of their next SSN (before SSNR, now SSN AUKUS). There are several billion $ in SSN design development fees the UK wants to get from Australia, not pay GDEB a license fee to build their design.
4, Likewise BAE won’t want to let go of the builder fee and hand over technical leadership to GDEB or HII. With the Hunter frigate program, Aussie cash was allegedly used to bail out the struggling RN Type 26 program. BAE would love to be in that position again with the RN and RAN both paying for SSN AUKUS.
5. When I first tried to understand AUKUS, I made the mistake of looking at all the technical arguments for and against to understand why they did it. Technical factors never explained the decision. AUKUS was always about politics, money and old school loyalty (subservience?), not getting the best technical result.
6. Assuming that hasn’t changed, I agree we won’t build SSNs in Australia. Instead we will buy a combination of 3 US and 5 mostly UK built SSNs. The UK built SSNs will be finished off in ASC for the last 20% of the work, perhaps fitting the US combat system, and nothing else. We will then pay a fortune maintaining this motley crew for the following 30 years. Australian yards will learn how to maintain Virginias and SSN AUKUS boats, perfect for UK and US SSN basing.
I sincerely hope I’m wrong, but so far Marles and Albo show no sign of changing course.
What the naval shipbuilding armament manufacturers are hawking to the Government this week, in advance of some sort of annouceable in the new year for future surface combatants:
https://youtu.be/U_nU7EyRSyk?si=dwbzE2BMrMRa1-BX
The two Navantia proposals are by far the most mature – hence straight forward – options for any rapid upscaling in capability. If the government was serious about obtaining ‘meaningful impact ion’ by the end of the decade it would go with an immediate 3 ship ‘flight 2’ AWD order and a 6 ship ‘Tasman Class’ ‘Corvette’ deal (these are really light frigates) for the tier one and tier two requirements. … but im guessing the anglophiles wil go with the Gibbs & Cox and BAE ‘imaginings’ instead. …
Hi Socrates. It’s late, so i wont go into detail, but to clarify – i dont mean that SSN-AUKUS simply becomes a rebadged ‘Block VII’ Virginia. Perhaps I should have articulated my thoughts better.
What I am suggesting is that all the Australian design money be tipped into a common pot alongside the US and UK’s existing next generation SSN projects to come up with a common design. One that might actually look to be closer to the ‘artists impressions’ of the SSN-AUKUS concept than just another iteration of the Virginia class: ‘starting now’ I’m pretty sure that a US lead, and properly funded project would be ready for construction by 2033.
Night all.
Ps. Sorry to bore you Mavis. Feel free to scroll on by. In fact I’d prefer it if you did if you’re bored.
If you want government that works on your behalf, elect more independents.
=============================================================
Never saw this call when LNP/ Morrison were in government.
Very transparent.
Sometimes Director’s cuts actually work:
https://youtu.be/pdqI49DKfhM?si=GOekvHfGQlkUic_E
New thread.
Been There @ #1241 Thursday, November 9th, 2023 – 11:56 pm
So you weren’t here on PB before the last election?