The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 52-48, in from 54-46 at the poll conducted from October 4 to 12 in the lead-up to the referendum, from primary votes of Labor 35% (down one), Coalition 37% (up two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). This is the narrowest two-party Newspoll result since the election, eclipsing two of the last four results which had it at 53-47.
Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have taken a tumble, down four on approval to 42% and up six on disapproval to 52%. The net rating of minus 10 is substantially weaker than his previous worst results for the term of minus one, likewise recorded in two of the previous four polls. Peter Dutton is at 37% approval and 50% disapproval, which is respectively up two and down three on the previous Newspoll result, but equal to the poll before. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 46-36, in from 51-31 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1220.
Also out today was the latest federal poll from RedBridge Group which has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54.1-45.9 in the pollster’s previous result from early September. The primary votes were Labor 34% (down three), Coalition 35% (down one), Greens 14% (up one) and others 17% (up three). The poll was conducted October 27 to November 2 from a sample of 1205.
How about including the Resolve poll results? Like the Preferred PM? 😀
Bad news for Labor. They’ll only win next Saturday’s election comfortably, instead of in a complete blowout.
From the previous thread I believe Morrison visited Israel zero times while PM although he did visit Hawaii at least once.
No evidence of any new Resolve poll, on the last thread I think it was a joking reference to an old one.
Cat no such thing as a Resolve Poll currently. Holdenhillbilly is not very smart I think.
New Newspoll approval rates seem rather bouncy.
So if your Labor do you stick with a Leader who looks like taking you back into minority govt next year or do you put in the Queenslander who may win seats in QLD and hold onto a majority.
I’d say Albo has less than 6 months to show he can stage a recovery otherwise the switch will happen before the Budget.
Leroy @ #NaN Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 10:01 pm
Thanks, Leroy. 🙂
Wat Tyler @ #NaN Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 9:58 pm
And if Scott Morrison keeps putting his ugly mug out there, they’ll win in a canter. 😀
Will Albo get 2 years as PM and pass Tony Abbott.
2 months ago there was a Newspoll with primaries of (this poll in brackets): ALP 35 (35), LNP 37 (37), Green 13 (12) One Nation 7 (6).
2PP then was 53/47. Now 52/48. Must be rounding error movement between both polls. Lot of hypo-ventilating about nothing…. One pretty clear conclusion – Referendum result has done nothing to move polls.
The Lion From The North stalking his prey!
There’s just not a lot of there there with Albo. The punters have worked that out in 18 months, he was exceedingly lucky to be up against scomo in 2022.
From the last thread – originally I didn’t think Israel could have much to do with the dip for Albo since anti Israeli/pro Palestinian sentiment might drive Islamic and hard left ALP voters (such of the latter as still exist) to “others” or “greens” for their primary but not at all to Dutton on 2pp, but of course the polls in question don’t use respondent assigned preferences, so these primary moves would leak to Dutton on 2pp. So it might be part of the gap. Still think economic issues are the main thing.
High Street @ #NaN Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 10:08 pm
Exactly. One bit of data smoothing and Coalition fanbois wet their pants and bare their fangs.
Lars Von Trier @ #NaN Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 10:12 pm
People worked you out years ago. 😐
I’m actually looking forward to having a bald Prime Minister in New Zealand and Australia, should be interesting
@High Street: “One pretty clear conclusion – Referendum result has done nothing to move polls.”
The result didn’t move it (especially since people have known for months what it was going to be barring a miracle) but the opportunity cost of not talking about other issues all this time has moved the polls. Labor could have been out of sight in front by now, maybe.
Arky @ #NaN Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 10:13 pm
Exactly. Peter Dutton has been leading the Pro Israel charge. Forgetting that there are quite a few pro Palestinian voters out there. Tony Bourke spoke up for them. So just how that’s supposed to be a big negative for Labor just doesn’t make sense.
“It’s the Economy, stupid!”
(Clinton, B)
I didn’t mind Murph’s critique on Albo yesterday.
“Albanese is attempting to ignore the static and get about his business. It’s certainly true that a prime minister more intent on winning the “optics” would stay closer to home rather than flying to Washington, Shanghai, Beijing, the Cook Islands and then back to San Fransisco in the space of a month. But Albanese continues to conduct what, at times, feels like a radical governing experiment in a fractured and febrile age. Australia’s current prime minister does things because he thinks they are important. He has an unfashionable fetish for substance.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/03/albanese-to-raise-human-rights-and-trade-with-xi-in-first-china-visit-by-australian-pm-since-2016
And Lars Von Trier has a fashionable RW fetish for flim flam.
The polling problem is Albo himself – hence the -10 approval.
After the Voice there should have been a reset, instead it’s been steady as she goes with trips thrown in.
A self-indulgent govt thats been worked out by the public.
@cat
Very true haha.
But Arky, no one is voting now, so it would be irrelevant even if your unprovable scenario was true.
There’s a fundamental flaw with the LNP logic of attacking Albo over obsession with the Referendum – its over, done, dusted, fish and chip paper. The default position now and everyday forward is not to talk about it.
It’s referendum day + 3 weeks – did anyone see Jacinta Price in the news this week??
If the Government isn’t polling 54/46 in February when everyone is over Christmas break and incumbents tend to get a small lift, I will be very surprised. Then the headline writers will be heaping pressure on Dutton.
I could be wrong but it seems Lars thinks of themselves as the fisherman.
But they are actually chum.
Nobody should be wetting the bed or creaming their pants over this. But anyone assuming a left leaning government are assured of two terms is way wrong. You snooze, you lose. You fence sit, you’re a sitting duck. You fail to address core issues, you’ll get a box of….. 2b4’s.
Bearing in mind the result at the last election and all the Teal seats held by “other” this is still nowhere near a change of governmetn poll result. The Libs would go further backward on this result.
In terms of economic mood, this should be the bottom of the cycle for Labor. World inflation has peaked and is trending down. Interest rates will follow. Barring insanity in the RBA, Australia should start following suit soon. Economic conditions should be much better by 2025.
A lot of the things Labor has done so far will start bearing fruit in the next two years. The NACC should be fun. REviews of infrastructure projeccts will be finished and should finally see announced what will happen next. Likewise the initatives on housing supply.
Team Katich:
Agreed.
Shift in voter sentiment since May 2022 election, according to the latest Newpoll:
Primary votes (rounded to nearest 0.5%):
ALP +2.5
LNP +1.5
Grn 0.0
ONP +1.0
Oth -5.0
TPP (rounded to nearest 0.5%):
ALP 0.0
LNP 0.0
So, same TPP as at the election, but with both Labor and the Coalition firming up their PV, Labor more so than the Coalition. This suggests a possible lift in seats to the Coalition, and certainly no loss in seats by Labor (maybe a lift).
Prognosis: another narrow majority to Labor on these voting intentions.
Lars’ suggestion that this poll points to a minority Labor government is not mathematically coherent.
2PP then was 53/47. Now 52/48. Must be rounding error movement between both polls. Lot of hypo-ventilating about nothing…. One pretty clear conclusion – Referendum result has done nothing to move polls.
The sample size is 1205, so the margin of error is nearly 3%.
Statistically, no change, business as usual. All else said about the 2PP result is spin.
The approval changes are significant, as are those for preferred PM, but they don’t mean much.
Team Katich @ #26 Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 10:01 pm
Well said. And I think this should be an important thing to remember, regardless of what polling says.
Am currently laughing at the trolls trying to argue that Labor is going to knife Albo for a “horror poll” of an election winning 4 point lead and a 20 point lead on preferred PM.
Sorry. Repeating this because I missed the new thread.
Kirsdarke 8.52 pm
‘Oh yeah, the SA Labor government in that time of 1989-1993 was really on its last legs and that act was probably a move of desperation from them, not that it did much good since 1993 was a landslide victory for the SA Liberals, reducing Labor to just 10 out of 47 seats from a 60-40 result.’
Not quite sure who this post is responding to but just out of interest:
The 1993 flogging was because Labor bankrupted the state. They got back within one seat at the following election and won back government at the next.
Just a quick history of SA governments.
Don Dunstan, Labor 1970-1979: 4 election victories
David Tonkin, Liberal 1979-1982: 1 election victory
John Bannon, Labor, 1982-1992: 3 election victories
Dean Brown, Liberal 1993-1996: 1 election victory
John Olsen, Liberal 1997-2001: 1 election victory
Mike Rann, Labor 2002-2011: 3 election victories
Jay Weatherill, Labor 2011-2018: 2 election victories
Steven Marshall, Liberal 2018-2022: 1 election victory
Peter Malinauskas, Labor 2022-?: 1 election victory
Score 1970-2022:
Labor 13 election victories
Liberals 4 election victories
And that’s how we roll in the great State of South Australia.
Lars – the minus 10 figure is undisputable, so I agree with your assessment. {Welcome back, by the way}. 10 point deficit is a bad smell in the elevator & I think Albo is in a bit of trouble. Other posters’ comments about “waiting for the China visit to impact”, are not quite correct. Albo was in the U.S. during this polling period of Pyxis-Newspoll, including staged photo’s with Biden & H.O.R. dinners etc, and he has still been marked down. With regards to replacing him, well this is not going to happen. The Socialist Left faction of the ALP control the Federal Party, and therefore who will be the P.M.. Chalmers, or Shorten, both of whom are from the right, don’t stand a chance. Maybe Deputy, but not P.M.. Marles is from the right faction, but he won’t progress further than Deputy PM level. I would keep an eye on Plibersek as she is from the A.L.P. Left faction too, though not quite in sync with the Socialist Left. (ie; she doesn’t have the numbers… yet). With regard to Shorten, there are whispers on the Antony Green blog site, that his seat of Maribyrnong may be abolished, as Victoria is due to lose a seat in Parliament (along with NSW). This would probably suit Albo quite finely. Complicated stuff the old politics isn’t it!
IMO, the main reason the polls have been tightening as of late are cost of living, rising inflation, and the ongoing housing crisis, and the while I don’t think the electorate blames the government for these situations (yet), enough time has passed since Morrison’s defeat that people are increasingly inclined to blame the government for not satisfactorily dealing with it.
The aftermath of the Voice referendum and the middle east conflict might have had a little impact too, but the referendum is already becoming yesterday’s news and I don’t doubt there’s a great deal of votes shifting over the ME either.
I don’t think anyone should be getting too worried about this poll – if reflected at an election it would probably end up broadly similar to 2022’s results – but the government certainly take heed of the fact that the honeymoon is most definitely over (and probably has been for months) and that – if those personal ratings are any indication – Dutton isn’t nearly as unelectable as his detractors tend to claim.
@Rainman
I said that in regards to the conversation about the “Multi-function polis” things that showed up randomly in that term of government, where they insisted on it being in SA.
That said, the recovery of SA Labor after 1993 was fairly remarkable, in fact it was pathetic that Rob Kerin’s Liberal government tried to hold on until the very end when it came down to a losing minority government and refused to resign until losing a confidence vote after the 2002 election.
The disconnect from media narrative of cost of living pressures and wall to wall complaining based on recalcitrant “experts” or an “expert”is attending a well regarded eatery or attending a function including the races
Simply, well regarded eateries are jumping as are attendances at performances and on Day 1 of the 4 Day Melbourne Cup Carnival where bookies are being kept most busy
These observations give weight to official data
Economies remain resilient (and there are wage increases) noting Biden’ reference to workers as the engine room of the economy, joining striking workers (to the chagrin of certain of our media proprietors!!)
So a rate increase on Cup Day?
IF there is, and I would put it in the IF catagory, I would suggest that it will be the final hike in the current cycle
The significant rally on Global Equity Markets, pulling back from an official correction (post December 2021), is noted
This rally was based on sentiment re interest rates, the commentary of the Fed Reserve and the decision of the Fed Reserve last week
No doubt there are a raft of geopolitical events fracturing societies plus inflation remains elevated
So dissenting voices remain and, indeed are elevated
But reasoned responses, as promoted by the Australian government and other governments promoting a 2 State solution in the Middle East, will carry the day and we trust that what we see now and the International response on the streets will hasten the 2 State resolution being progressed in a reasoned and sustainable manner by players of good faith (noting Hamas was elected as the government in Gaza for a reason, so frustration with the progress being made this aligned to the Israel Coalition government being on fragile ground domestically and internationally which it is)
In regard the other disruption being the Russia/Ukraine border dispute, and noting those Nations accessing energy supply from Russia including India and China with 2.8 billion of population between them, so considerable markets, you would reason that embargoes elsewhere will be overturned based on the lack of impact given who do not comply with those embargoes
Accordingly the moderating of inflation will continue and this will pressure those using the cover of inflation to increase pricing because there is predatory inflation at play across some sectors of the economy (and we all know where these pressures are currently courtesy of who is billing us for what)
The complaining classes have plenty of ammunition at present (including anti vaxxers who are still prominent along with anti lockdown proponents) but their causes will exhaust as reasoned voices stay consistent promoting resolutions
The rude people promoting discourse will be identified for who and what they are
Professional recalcitrants with agendas which are fringe agendas
The rest of us are enjoying spending on the good things in life – so socialising
The 2PP trend is solid for Labor. But the steady decline in Albo’s approval from such a strong start is a concern. The question is does it matter in a contest between Albanese’s ALP and Dutton’s Liberals.
The problem is inflation is not going to die down before the next election or even into the next term. Chalmers’ strategy is basically to ride it out but like Morrison they’re now facing the usual calls to take some token action which will 100% contribute to a prolonging of inflation. Bridget McKenzie talking about fuel excise on sunrise but went quiet when asked if the Dutton coalition would support another temporary cut.
Honestly the issue has been Albanese losing control of the day to day news cycle and communicating poorly. Israel/Palestine, cost of living and for the last few months, the Voice have crowded out anything else and in all those areas he’s been losing skin, mostly unnecessarily. The only thing that matters now is the govt’s plans to grow productivity and reduce inflation.
Here We Go Again:
Yes, people with comfortable incomes still exist. That doesn’t mean others aren’t still doing it tough. Someone frequenting the races or a “well-regarded eatery” in this economic climate probably isn’t particularly representative of the people struggling right now.
Rate hikes are the stupidest hammer, and only make banks more money.
Many more ways (and still let the banks be profitable) to bring down inflation with an economic and social dividend.
Some fresh insanity from the former President of the United States:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-05/donald-trump-claims-he-won-all-50-states-in-2020-election-in-flo/103067228
All Dutton does is whinge and moan. No plan to tackle anything in the economy. No plans. No policies. Are the punters going to be stupid enough to vote for Dutton on an agendaless platform just because he is not Albo. There will be no help for anyone especially lower to middle class paid people under Dutton. The Libs only hand out to their mates with money. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool.
Chrysalis at 10.39 pm
You wrote: “So, same TPP as at the election, but with both Labor and the Coalition firming up their PV, Labor more so than the Coalition. This suggests a possible lift in seats to the Coalition, and certainly no loss in seats by Labor (maybe a lift).”
Don’t forget the complications of the Australian electoral system. Your last sentence would be more accurate if Australia had MMP in the lower house.
One cannot extrapolate simply from TPP to predicting seat numbers, as the Labor loss in 1998 demonstrated. See post-2022 election pendulum:
https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-post-federal-election-pendulum/
Libs hold 8 seats by less than 3%, with Monash (at 2.9%) most likely to see the incumbent Broadbent retiring. Of the others only Moore (WA) and probably Bass and Dickson are safe, unless Archer is forced out of the Libs. Hence there are 5 Lib seats (including Monash) that could easily be lost.
Labor holds 10 seats by under 4%. Hunter is on 4%, with a sophomore effect possible. Similar effect is likely in six others (5 won from Libs: Bennelong, Higgins. Robertson, Tangney and Boothby, plus Lingiari). Gilmore has a strong local MP, Fiona Philipps, who defeated Constance.
So the Labor position in terms of seat margins is stronger than the LNP’s.
Then there is the Teal factor. The only independent who is very likely to lose, depending on the Labor candidate, is Dai Le, who is a former Lib. The margin for both Dr Ryan and Zoe Daniel is 2.9%. Spender’s margin is 4.2%. Mr Roses, Dave Sharma, might think that is a bar too high for him.
If anybody thinks Dr Scamps’ margin in Mackellar is thin at 2.5% (before the redistribution), there are 7 Lib seats with a smaller margin. The likely prospects for the North Shore Sydney Teals must await the redistribution.
Kate Chaney’s margin in Curtin is only 1.3% but she could well be endorsed by Julie Bishop, apart from probably having a good portion of former Lib booth workers etc volunteering for her. If the next federal election is in late 2024 (before the WA election on 8 March 2025), that will help Chaney. However, she may not need such help to retain Curtin. After all, she will be supported by the Chairman of Wesfarmers, her father, a fierce operator.
Hence, while the pendulum is steep for the Libs, the existence of the Teals means the Libs are trying to ascend an electoral cliff, operating in electoral terrain (because of the losses to the Teals) that will be terribly difficult.
That is before you include subjective factors like Dutton’s woman problem.
bob: “… and a 20 point lead on preferred PM”
Er, it’s a 10 point lead, 46 – 36.
Less than the long-term average lead of incumbents, 14 to 17 points.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/04/why-better-prime-ministerpremier-scores.html
Some scary polling in the US. Sienna/NYT showing Trump moderately ahead in swing states (Penn, Georgia, Ariz, Nev). Also shows Harris doing not much worse than Biden.
With usual caveats, of course. State polls. Long way out. Some off-year elections Tuesday might give some clues on reliability.
This pollster has been using some interesting (expensive) polling methods of late that should make them more reliable. However, not sure if they used those methods for these polls.
While on the polls… looks like American Democracy will require the Supreme Court to save them… fat chance.
Colour me surprised.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/punishment-and-control-the-secret-handbook-that-rules-a-religion-20231026-p5ef9z.html
I always stated the peak for the lib/nats combined primary vote seems to be 37%
Which is well below what the lib/nats and their propaganda media units would be wanting to be , no doubt they would have thought they be close to or over 40 % by now
If the lib/nats combined primary vote is lower than 37% around next years budget , those in the current federal Liberal party will start rumbling of liberal party leadership spill
The absolute nadir of the ALP’s vote after a disastrous referendum, and they are still 4 whole points clear of the no-alition: Played like a trout integrity and taylormerde must be apoplectic 😆
bob @ #32 Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 10:43 pm
It’s all they’ve got. 😐