4:06pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation on the final NZ results that also includes swings from the 2020 election result and a look at the polls.
1:39pm A National win in the Port Waikato by-election would give Nat + ACT 60 of the now 123 seats, still two short of the 62 needed for a majority. So National will definitely need NZ First.
12:14pm National have dropped two seats and the Māori party have won two electorate seats in which they narrowly trailed Labour on election night. This means an overhang of two seats, with the combined right of National and ACT getting 59 of the 122 seats, three short of the 62 needed for a majority. One win by the Māori party was by just four votes.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The New Zealand electoral commission said on election night there were an estimated 567,000 “special votes” remaining to be counted or 20.2% of all votes. Unlike Australia, no counting updates are provided after election night until final results are released at 12pm AEDT Friday, three weeks after the election.
On the preliminary figures, National won 50 of the 121 seats and ACT 11, with National and ACT at 61 seats, enough for a majority. In my article Tuesday for The Conversation previewing the final results, I expect National and ACT to fall below a majority, meaning that National would also need NZ First to form a government.
Final results should be posted here when available. The winner of the November 25 Port Waikato by-election, expected to be National, will also be seated in addition to those elected on October 14.
Mike Johnson elected US House Speaker
Right-wing Republican Mike Johnson was elected US House Speaker by a 220-209 party-line vote on October 25, with all Republicans in favour and all Democrats supporting their leader Hakeem Jeffries. This vote concluded three weeks of chaos after Kevin McCarthy’s ouster, in which Republicans had unsuccessfully nominated Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan and Tom Emmer.
While the US presidential election is not until November 2024, there will be a few state elections and a federal by-election next Tuesday. I will cover these elections then and provide live commentary as results come in Wednesday AEDT.
Combined right wins Argentine lower house, but fails in Senate
In the October 22 Argentine presidential election, the centre-left Sergio Massa won 36.7%, the far-right Javier Milei 30.0% and the conservative Patricia Bullrich 23.8%. A centrist candidate won 6.8% and the far-left 2.7%. The runoff between Massa and Milei will be held November 19. Bullrich endorsed Milei on October 25.
Despite the 53.8% combined right vote, Massa is ahead in early runoff polls, although they were taken before Bullrich’s endorsement. Massa is the candidate of the incumbent Union for the Homeland (UftH) coalition.
In concurrent legislative elections, 130 of the 257 Chamber of Deputies seats were elected by proportional representation in multi-member electorates based on the 24 provinces. UftH won 58 seats (down six since the last time these seats were contested in 2019), Milei’s Liberty Advances (LA) 35 and Bullrich’s Together for Change (TfC) 31 (down 25). The other 127 seats were elected in 2021. Total seats are 108 UftH out of 257, 92 TfC, 39 LA and 18 others. The combined right of TfC and LA has a majority.
In the Senate, eight provinces held elections with the winning party taking two senators and the second party one. This is more like first past the post, and UftH benefited from the right split, winning 13 of the 24 seats (up one since the last time these seats were contested in 2017) to seven for LA and two for TfC (down ten). A regionalist party won the remaining two seats. The other 16 provinces held Senate elections in 2019 and 2021. Total senators are 36 UftH out of 72, 23 TfC, seven LA and six others.
Switzerland and Slovakia
Switzerland uses PR in multi-member electorates based on the cantons (states) to elect its lower house. At the October 22 election, the right-wing SVP won 62 of the 200 seats (up nine since 2017), the Social Democrats 41 (up two), the Centre 29 (up one), the Liberals 28 (down one), the Greens 23 (down five) and the Green Liberals ten (down six). The upper house is heavily malapportioned, with runoff elections in November to fill 15 of the 46 seats.
Instead of a single PM or president, Switzerland has a seven-member federal council, which is currently two SVP, two Social Democrats, two Liberals and one Centre. This composition is likely to be retained when the full parliament votes on December 13.
I covered the September 30 Slovakian election in early October. On October 25, the pro-Russia but economically left Smer formed a government with the support of Hlas (a breakaway from Smer) and the nationalist SNS.
So NZ will be governed by a coalition of the traditional Right, the libertarian Right, and Winston Peters. What could possibly go wrong?
I suppose there’s no chance that Labor would be able (or willing to) cobble some sort of deal with The Greens, The Maori Party, and NZ First?
All this means that Aotearoa will have the most conservative government in living memory – but it will probably still look like a Danish enclave in Cuba by Dutton standards. I have met very few people who I would class as “ratbag right”/MAGA from New Zealand. We shall see.
Winston Peters categorically ruled out cooperation with Labor before the election. Given the massive fall in the Labor vote, I think they’d be wrong to try to cobble together a coalition anyway. How long would it last? Better to regroup in Opposition, and wait for the inevitable problems the new government will face to start to erode their support.
Sounds like NZ politics will be a bit chaotic with a broad coalition like that.
Thanks as always Adrian
“Sounds like NZ politics will be a bit chaotic with a broad coalition like that.”
Probably not as much as it sounds, due to Chris Luxon’s managerial style of governing. For him, it will be like his stints in the commercial world, managing diverse teams, finding common ground and pushing for results.
Luxon is very much a pragmatist and is also not a career politician which probably helps. No-one in NZ history has made the journey from MP to PM in just 3 years before, 6 years has been the shortest before.
Like everyone, though, I’m curious to see how the new govt works in practice.
BTSays at 7.31 pm
A new NZ government is founded on one primary condition, which is W. Peters as Deputy PM. That is the opinion of a Kiwi journo Tova O’Brien:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/133232517/as-he-ignores-david-seymour-winston-peters-has-picked-up-a-far-stronger-hand
Peters can more or less demand what he wants, including on taking the GST off some food, which was the most serious NZ First policy. Luxon will want to avoid a new election much more eagerly than Peters would.
A key factor in the continuing influence of NZ First under Peters has been ‘the need to carefully nurture their “outsider” characterization, even as a part of government’.
Quote from paper by Oldfield and Van Veen (p 10), available at:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/373842720_Man_alone_Winston_Peters_and_the_populist_tendency_in_New_Zealand_politics
Peters was able to work with the Green Party under Ardern as PM, partly because there was some semblance of common economic policies, but with the ACT libertarians there is no such semblance. While ACT has three more MPs than NZ First, Peters has much more influence on what the next NZ government will do than the ACT leader will have, and he knows it.
When National lost the 2017 election its party vote was 44.5%. In 2023 its party vote is 38%. All that difference has gone to ACT, without influence.
I’m sure NZ First will negotiate with Labour and The Greens if they don’t get enough out of the Nationals and ACT.
Yet another come back for Winston Peters. He has more lives than a cat.