Further analysis Thursday morning
While these elections were good for Dems, New York Times analyst Nate Cohn says they were low-turnout affairs. The types of voters that didn’t vote yesterday, but are likely to vote in a presidential election, are much more anti-Biden, and more motivated by economic factors than abortion.
Furthermore, the legislative elections, where voters don’t know so much about candidates so they vote for parties more than for candidates, were mediocre for Dems compared with Biden’s margins. In Virginia, Dems won the Senate by 21-19 and the House by a likely 51-49. But Biden won Virginia by 10.1% in 2020. In the close seats, Reps ran well ahead of Trump.
In New Jersey, Dems won the Senate by 25-15 and the House by 51-29. But if they’d won the NJ popular vote by close to Biden’s 15.9 point margin in 2020, the single-member system should have produced a bigger blowout. In Mississippi, Reps won the Senate by 36-16 and the House by 79-41 with two others. That suggests a blowout; it was Trump by 16.5 in 2020.
Republicans also far exceeded their governor candidate’s performance in other statewide races in Mississippi and Kentucky.
Live Commentary
5:37pm Overall, today was decent for Dems. They gained full control of the Virginia legislature after Reps won the House in a big swing two years ago. They held the federal Rhode Island seat in a by-election by a bigger margin than in 2022. They held the Kentucky governorship despite it being a very Republican state at presidential elections. And two referendums supported by Dems passed in Ohio.
However, Biden remains unpopular, and today’s results are not good predictors of the outcome of the November 2024 presidential election. But they’ll mean Biden is less likely to face a real challenge to his re-nomination as 2024 Dem presidential candidate.
5:13pm Rep Reeves has been called the Mississippi governor winner, defeating Dem Presley by 51.6-46.6 with 94% in.
4:15pm Dems have now been called the winners of both chambers of the Virginia legislature, gaining control of the House and maintaining it in the Senate. Nate Silver says that, since 2917, Dems have done well in US elections when Trump isn’t on the ballot paper with the exception of November 2021.
3:57pm In Mississippi, Reps have easily retained control of both chambers of the state legislature, while Dems are on track to retain control in New Jersey.
3:40pm In Mississippi, with 86% in, Rep Reeves leads by 52.3-45.8 and Wasserman has called for Reeves. Dems have won the Virginia state Senate 21-16 with 3 uncalled, and lead in the House 48-42 with 10 uncalled. Dems have also won a state Supreme Court judgeship in Pennsylvania, where a Dem defeated a Rep 54.1-45.9.
2:10pm Mississippi looks very likely to be held by the incumbent Rep governor Reeves, with Wasserman pointing out a disastrous result for the Dem challenger.
2:07pm In Virginia, Dems lead the state Senate in called races by 18-14 with 8 still undecided. They lead the House by 42-32 with 26 undecided.
1:46pm Over 95% reporting in Rhode Island, and the Dem wins the by-election by 64.8-35.2. That’s slightly better than the 64.0-35.8 margin Dems won by in 2022, and much bigger than the poll that suggested only an 11-point Dem win.
1:42pm In Ohio, both the pro-abortion and the pro-marijuana amendments have been called for “yes”. However, the pro-abortion amendment is doing much less well than polls suggested (winning 56-44 when polls had it up by over 20 points).
1:20pm Media have now called Kentucky governor for Dem incumbent Beshear, who leads by 52.7-47.3 with 86% in.
1:17pm With 12% counted in Mississippi, the incumbent Rep Reeves leads the Dem Presley for governor by 56.0-42.5.
1:12pm Wasserman says Dems have retained control of the Virginia state Senate. With 41% counted in Ohio, the pro-abortion amendment wins (current lead 57.4-42.6).
12:55pm With 33% counted in Ohio, the pro-abortion measure is winning by 59.1-40.9 and the pro-marijuana one by 55.7-44.3.
12:22pm Fast counting in RI, where polls closed at 12pm. Dem now leads by 63.4-36.6 with 75% in.
12:16pm In Rhode Island, the Dem has been called the winner of the federal by-election, and currently leads by 62.4-37.6 with 58% in.
12:10pm In Virginia it’s a 6-6 tie in the Senate in called races; 21 needed for a majority. In the House, Dems lead by 24-19; 51 needed for majority.
11:51am Both Ohio referendums, one on a right to abortion and one on legalising marijuana, are far ahead, abortion by 66-34 and marijuana by 57.5-42.5. The NYT prediction is both will win easily.
11:31am Wasserman has CALLED Kentucky governor for Dem Beshear. He currently leads by 56.6-43.4 with 31% in.
11:19am US analyst Dave Wasserman is tweeting the results as counties complete their counts, and these are so far looking good for Beshear (Dem) in Kentucky compared to 2019, which he won.
10:58am 12% now reporting in Kentucky, and Beshear leads by 60-40. This reflects early votes from the Kentucky cities of Louisville and Lexington.
10:40am Wednesday The first results from Kentucky from rural counties have the Rep Cameron leading the Dem incumbent Beshear by 53-47.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
While the next US presidential election will occur in November 2024, there are a few US state elections and a federal by-election today. There will be gubernatorial elections in Kentucky and Mississippi and legislative elections in Mississippi, Virginia and New Jersey. A federal by-election for a safe Democratic House seat will occur in Rhode Island, and there will be a referendum on a pro-abortion measure in Ohio.
Elections in Louisiana (Donald Trump by 18.6 in 2020) occurred on October 14, with runoffs if needed on November 18. In a “jungle primary” in which all candidates run on the same ballot, Republican Jeff Landry won the governorship with 51.6%, above the 50% required to win outright, with a Democrat at 25.9%. Including minor candidates, Republicans defeated Democrats by 65.5-28.5. This was a Republican gain, with the current Democratic governor term limited. Republicans extended their state Senate majority from 27-12 to 28-11 with the House to be decided after runoffs.
In Kentucky (Trump by 25.9 in 2020), incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear led Republican Daniel Cameron for governor by 49-33 in an Emerson poll in early October, but this became a 47-47 tie in the final Emerson poll last week. In Mississippi (Trump by 16.5), a mid-October poll by a Democratic pollster had incumbent Republican Tate Reeves just one point ahead of his Democratic challenger, but an early October poll gave him an 8-point lead.
Republicans hold big majorities in the Mississippi legislature, while Democrats have clear majorities in the New Jersey legislature (Joe Biden by 15.9 in 2020). The most interesting legislative election is in Virginia (Biden by 10.1), where a big swing to Republicans in 2021 gave them the governorship and a 52-48 majority in the House. The Senate was not up for election in 2021, and Democrats hold a 22-18 majority.
Polling shows the pro-abortion measure in Ohio (Trump by 8.0) winning by at least 20 points. Past votes on similar measures in various states have far exceeded Biden’s performance in 2020, but they don’t imply smashing Democratic victories any more than the big defeat for Australia’s Voice referendum implies a smashing Coalition victory. State gubernatorial elections are poorly correlated with presidential elections.
A mid-October poll for the federal by-election in Rhode Island gave the Democrat a 46-35 lead. This would be a poor result for Democrats, as Biden won 63.8% in 2020 and Democrats won by 64-36 in 2022.
Polls close at 10am AEDT Wednesday in Kentucky’s eastern time zone, 11am in Virginia and western Kentucky, 11:30am in Ohio, and 12pm in Rhode Island, Mississippi and New Jersey. I will start commenting from about 10:45am.
Despite unpopularity, Biden and Trump cruising to nominations
The Democratic and Republican nominating contests begin in early 2024, with the Iowa Republican caucus on January 15 the first contest. There are several other contests in February before many states vote on “Super Tuesday” March 5.
Trump is dominating Republican national primary polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, winning 58.4%, to 13.6% for Ron DeSantis and 7.9% for Nikki Haley. He also has a big lead in Iowa. Biden hasn’t been challenged by another important Democrat. Federal Minnesota House member Dean Phillips launched a presidential campaign on October 27, but is so far not registering in Democratic national polls.
Biden and Trump’s likely nominations come despite their unpopularity with the general electorate. Biden’s ratings are currently 55.0% disapprove, 38.8% approve in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate (net -16.1), while Trump is at 54.6% unfavourable, 40.8% favourable (net -13.7).
Robert F. Kennedy Jr campaigned for the Democratic nomination, but his anti-vaxxer views were unsuitable for Democrats. He has launched an independent presidential campaign, and polls currently have him in the double digits. Biden and Trump’s unpopularity could benefit third party candidates. By the November 2024 election, Biden will be almost 82 and Trump 78.
Siena polls for The New York Times of six close 2020 Biden states were released Sunday. They gave Trump four-to-ten-point leads in five of these states, with Biden only ahead by two in Wisconsin. By 59-37, voters trusted Trump over Biden on the economy.
Meanwhile in Argentina, there will be a November 19 presidential runoff between the centre-left Massa and the far-right Milei. The three most recent polls, conducted after the conservative Bullrich endorsed Milei, suggest a close contest.
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AB: Past votes on similar measures in various states have far exceeded Biden’s performance in 2020, but they don’t imply smashing Democratic victories any more”
Special elections are closely correlated with the House popular vote: Still true, six years later
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/31/2194553/-Special-elections-are-closely-correlated-with-the-House-popular-vote-Still-true-six-years-later
AB: There are correlation analysis available in this study, which says correlation exists
Thanks Adrian
“State gubernatorial elections are poorly correlated with presidential elections.”
Absolutely, good point.
It could also be added, and even LESS closely correlated with (the federal) House and Senate results in the same state.
It can be hard for those of us who live in parliamentary democracies to understand the power of personality politics.
A classic is Democrat Joe Manchin, who was not only elected but re-elected senator in West Virginia, a deep red state Trump carried by colossal margins and where the GOP otherwise dominate virtually every elected office. I believe he is still showing competitive for his re-election bid in 2024, although it looks like a tough fight against a popular GOP governor Jim Justice.
The irony in West Virginia being that Jim Justice was elected as a Democratic Party Governor in 2016, then changed allegiance to the Republicans in 2017, and was re-elected as such in 2020.
Beshear is leading 58:41 in Kentucky.
Ohio abortion voting is in ‘Holy crap’ range. They are very close to US Senate voting range.
Kabir @kabirkhanna.bsky.social
@kabir_here
Election-Day turnout in Ohio looking quite strong so far, based on smattering of counties reporting live numbers
Combined with advance vote, total turnout may end up closer to U.S. Senate election (4.1M votes) than August 2023 special (3.1M)
Kentucky, 21% counted, Beshear on 59.9, but it looks to me from the NY Times map that many rural counties not reporting at all yet.
Ross Adams
@radamsWAPT
BREAKING At least 9 Hinds county precincts have run out of ballots, according to the clerk. Election officials are now scrambling to quickly print new ballots and rush them out to the polling places. It could be a long night this Election Day.
CNN Poll:
Trump leads Biden 49:45
Effective world leader: Biden 36
Trump: 48
Trump leading among ‘Independents’
Kentucky, 29% counted, Beshear on 57.9%.
Nicholas County in eastern KY has 90% of estimated vote in, Beshear 56-44. In 2019 it was 49.5-48.5 Beshear #KYGOV
Another eastern KY county mostly in: Magoffin 91% of estimated vote in, Beshear 50.4-49.6. It was 54-44 Beshear in 2019, so looks like slippage. #KYGOV
Fayette County (Lexington) 91% of AP’s estimated vote in, Beshear 72-28. In 2019 Beshear won it 66-33.
Anderson County has 99% of AP’s estimated vote in, Cameron 55-45. In 2019 Bevin took it 56-42 #KYGOV
Well done Kentucky, Fantastic.
Now hopefully Mississippi votes out their confederate loving governor.
Ohio issue 1 – 6% counted, 67.7% yes.
AP estimates Boone County in northern KY suburbs is 88% in, Cameron leads 56-44. Bevin took it 56-41 in 2019; one of the big questions heading into Election Day was whether Beshear could exceed his performance in this region #KYGOV
Trump reinauguration is almost inevitable unless he goes to God in the next year
Harlan County (deep red coal county, setting of “Justified”): 96% of AP’s estimated vote in, Cameron 66-34. Was 69-29 Bevin #KYGOV
MANCHESTER (NH) MAYOR: The Republicans will be able to hang their hats on one big win tonight: they have claimed the mayor’s office in Manchester (Cavanaugh is the Democrat, Ruais the Republican)
Voting time in one of the Mississippi state counties is extended by 1 hour.
All of the counties in Ohio (roughly a dozen) that I have randomly looked at have a higher Yes % vote for Issue 1 then their corresponding No vote in the previous referendum designed to require a 60% approval vote rather than a 50% approval vote in referendums (which was designed to thwart success in todays referendum).
Looks like that last poll in Kentucky was a bust, with Beshear winning by a clear margin (yay!).
American state level polling really is a busted flush, isn’t it.
Rhode Island the same – the result is in line with 2020 and 2022, which is a great sign for Biden, despite the story told by the polling.
Jefferson County just dropped another 20%, Lousiville. The remaining 44% here will swamp the banjo counties which is all the Repugs have
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/results-kentucky-governor.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=NavBar
MelbourneMammoth @ #18 Wednesday, November 8th, 2023 – 10:51 am
You say that, but his side sure doesn’t appear to be winning much tonight. Certainly not enough to make any outcome appear inevitable.
Looking like very good results for the Democrats so far, and quite promising in their implications for next year’s presidential election as far as I can tell.
AP have called Kentucky for Beshear- no sign of the red wave
Democrats likely to hold Virginia state senate according to 538:
https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/election-day-2023-live-results-analysis/?id=104679542
Willing to write this off as a case of name confusion. People must have mistook Cavanaugh for Kavanaugh, the credibly accused attempted rapist who gets to sit on the Supreme Court anyways because Republicans have zero standards and require zero accountability.
Of course people aren’t going to vote for that. 🙂
The Virginia house/senate election is looking like no change either.
Maybe not having Dotard on top of the ticket is a bad thing for Repugs?
Looking at the Mississippi Governor race, expecting Brandon Presley to get a big boost out of Tupelo
sprocket_ @ #30 Wednesday, November 8th, 2023 – 12:37 pm
Interesting. How many extra critters crawl out of the swamp and turnout when his name is on it – vs – how many GOP voters, so repulsed by him, either stay home or split ticket? And throw in – how many Dem voters he turns out by being on the ticket.
Is he ever not on the ticket tho? At least in peoples minds?
sprocket_ @ #30 Wednesday, November 8th, 2023 – 12:07 pm
Say what? He’s implicitly at the top of every GOP ticket.
Katich
I’d love to see him kicked off the ballot in one of these 14th Amendment cases – just to see how many write-ins he would get
Beshear must be a popular Democrat, as the down ticket Kentucky vacancies have been swept by Republicans
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/results-kentucky.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=EmbedLinkStrip
To really stretch the relevance – PA is electing a Supreme Court judge today. These are now hard fought and exe races and of mild interest as this is the only state that featured in the recent Seina/NYT poll of swing states that got all y’all (and me) talking. The last court election in 2021 (Republican judge retired) was neck and neck with the Republican just winning. This one is due to the Democrat Judge dying. The court is currently in Dem control 4-2. It is an interesting way that PA elects and retains and retires these judges if you wanna look into it.
Results live –
https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-pennsylvania-supreme-court-and-more/
@Sprocket
It probably helped that Andy Beshear is the son of Steve Beshear, who was a popular conservative Democratic Governor from 2007-2015.
It’s starting to look like the Democrats may have flipped the House in Virginia. If they do then it’s clear that voters have told Youngkin exactly where he can shove his proposed abortion ban.
Yes I think Dems hold State Senate maybe unchanged 22-18 but flip State House from 48-52 to at least 51-49.
I imagine the ‘draft Youngkin for President’ movement dies tonight. His Governor term finishes in 2025 and you can’t serve consecutive terms in Virginia so not sure what his future holds. Maybe a Presidential run in 2028?
Sadly it looks like Mississippi may be a bridge too far for the Democrats. Reeves is outperforming his previous result in the key Jacksonville counties of Madison and Rankin.
If the turnout isn’t high enough in the heavily Democratic Hinds county, that’ll be it for them there this time.
Ohio voting for abortion rights – just like the Australian system where the States set the rules for abortion – yet, Australian Feminists are much more concerned about US abortion rights than Australian ones as any survey of media articles would attest to.
Abortion should be legal, safe, extremely rare, and all involved should be fully aware that they are lawfully killing a human.
If I read the results correctly, all 12 of the Democratic endorsed candidates won for Fairfax County Schoolboard, so all the Moms for Liberty authoritarians lost.
”
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, November 8, 2023 at 2:32 pm
@Sprocket
It probably helped that Andy Beshear is the son of Steve Beshear, who was a popular conservative Democratic Governor from 2007-2015.
”
Kirsdarke
That is one main reason Joe Manchin should be drafted as candidate for POTUS
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Team Katichsays:
Wednesday, November 8, 2023 at 1:35 pm
To really stretch the relevance – PA is electing a Supreme Court judge today. These are now hard fought and exe races and of mild interest as this is the only state that featured in the recent Seina/NYT poll of swing states that got all y’all (and me) talking. The last court election in 2021 (Republican judge retired) was neck and neck with the Republican just winning. This one is due to the Democrat Judge dying. The court is currently in Dem control 4-2. It is an interesting way that PA elects and retains and retires these judges if you wanna look into it.
Results live –
https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-pennsylvania-supreme-court-and-more/
”
Democrat candidate won the election.
The Ohio voters have provided a slightly bigger majority to legalising weed than to legalising abortion.
Both measures have passed easily, but it is unlikely to shut up those wanting to control the majority with their views.
Polls have closed in Washington state, where the race between far-right Snohomish County Sheriff Adam Fortney and challenger Susanna Johnson is the main event. Nonpartisan, but GOP for Fortney and Dems for Johnson
FUBAR will be happy with below result on a dim night for Republican party.
AP calls GOP pickup for Suffolk County, executive, Ed Romaine leads 57-43 with 42% of estimated vote in. Trump only won Suffolk County by 232 votes, but it went hard to the right in 2021 and 2022.
Kirsdarke @ #40 Wednesday, November 8th, 2023 – 2:05 pm
It’s hardly surprising that a Republican incumbent is ahead in Mississippi, of all places.
If anything, it’s remarkable that the race is as competitive as it is (Dem currently on 45.6%), especially given how unenthused Democratic voters are supposed to be over the general “Biden is old and everything is ruined” sentiment which is claimed to be pervasive and insurmountable.
Virginia House is currently 48 Dem, 41 Rep with 11 seats uncertain. Of those, Democrats leading in 4, Republicans leading in 7. Assuming no flips, seems like 52-48 to the Democrats, a net gain of 4.
Democrat Cherelle Parker is elected as Philadelphia’s 100th mayor, 1st woman to hold the office
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/7/2204321/-Democrat-Cherelle-Parker-is-elected-as-Philadelphia-s-100th-mayor-1st-woman-to-hold-the-office
Democratic candidate for Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker, right, hugs Ward leader Steven Jones, of the 52nd district, who campaigned for Parker, at Pinn Memorial Baptist Church on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2023, in Philadelphia. (Jessica Griffin/The Philadelphia Inquirer via AP)
Cherelle Parker, a Democrat who has held office at the state and local level after first becoming involved in politics as a teenager, was elected Tuesday as Philadelphia’s 100th mayor, becoming the first woman to hold the post.
Cherelle Parker, a Democrat who has held office at the state and local level after first becoming involved in politics as a teenager, was elected Tuesday as Philadelphia’s 100th mayor, becoming the first woman to hold the post.
Parker, 51, emerged from a crowded field of Democrats in the May primary and was heavily favored over Republican David Oh in the city, a Democratic stronghold. She will replace Democrat Jim Kenney, who was ineligible for reelection due to term limits.
She campaigned on a promise to make Philadelphia the “safest, cleanest, greenest big city in the nation that will provide access to economic opportunity for all.”