The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday published a New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic, which even more than last week’s federal result was a lot less strong for Labor than the pollster’s past form. A Coalition that has been struggling through its first year in opposition is credited with a six-point spike on the primary vote since November to 38%, while Labor is down three to 34%. The Greens are down a point to 12%, a generic independents category is steady on 12%, and “others” is down two to 5%. This suggests a two-party result of around 51.5-48.5 in Labor’s favour, compared with 54.3-45.7 at the election last March.
A preferred premier question continues to produce a high undecided result, although it has narrowed to the extent Chris Minns’ lead over Liberal leader Mark Speakman is out from 35-13 to 35-16. The accompanying report says the sample for the poll was 1035, but is silent on the question of field work dates. It thus leaves unanswered the question of whether the interruption of New Year has prompted a change to the pollster’s normal practice of combining state results from the past two monthly national surveys, last week’s poll having been the first since early December.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of New South Wales state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
This result is not bad you expect hard unpopular decisions in first year and then better from there.
Better this then going backwards later in term.
I’m a little incredulous about these numbers. There hasn’t been any particular event in NSW state politics in recent months that would have jolted voting intentions. Maybe it’s just the end of the new government’s honeymoon. The numbers are about what you’d expect for federal voting intention in NSW-did respondents understand this was a state poll? I think Minns is still doing pretty well as the media frontman for the government, while Speakman (who is a decent person from the moderate faction) remains invisible.
Longer-term, chronic problems with housing in NSW may eat away at government support. Everyone wants their kids to be able to get their own affordable property, but no-one wants more housing in their neighbourhood or their own property value to fall.
I agree with this, I feel like there’s a conflation with Federal politics.
Given the limited attention people pay to NSW politics, Minns is a more than adequate frontman. That said, he masks the longest tail I’ve ever seen, most of his Cabinet are absolutely woeful.
Speako is a good guy but there aren’t too many who’d pick him out in a line up. Natalie Ward is the only one of the current lot who would have a fighting chance but she needs to move to the Lower House.
Realistically, the challenge for the Libs will be holding ground in 2027 to give them a fighting chance in 2031.
It’s true that Minns has a cabinet of some mediocre performers, especially the transport minister and the police minister. The star performers in this government are Minns himself, Daniel Mookey, John Graham and Penny Sharpe.
The rise in the Liberal primary vote has to based on federal issues, because the state opposition leader Mark Speakman is fairly invisible from the media in Sydney.
Minns is probably getting some blowback too because he’s been more supportive of Israel and less so towards the Palestinians.
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Newcastle Moderatesays:
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 at 8:15 am
I’m a little incredulous about these numbers. There hasn’t been any particular event in NSW state politics in recent months that would have jolted voting intentions. Maybe it’s just the end of the new government’s honeymoon. The numbers are about what you’d expect for federal voting intention in NSW-did respondents understand this was a state poll? I think Minns is still doing pretty well as the media frontman for the government, while Speakman (who is a decent person from the moderate faction) remains invisible.
Longer-term, chronic problems with housing in NSW may eat away at government support. Everyone wants their kids to be able to get their own affordable property, but no-one wants more housing in their neighbourhood or their own property value to fall.
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The “particular event in NSW state politics in recent months that would have jolted voting intentions” is the fact that Minns completely supported one side of war in Arab world, as described by Leftiebrawler.
That must have pissed off significant portion of Labor voters.
And Minns isn’t particularly a charismatic leader. He was elected with a minority government, where he lost all close seats as described on election night
Hello Ven. I’m not convinced that the carnage in the Middle East would shift many votes at state level. Certainly the federal and state ALP were very quick to denounce the initial terrorist attack by Hamas, while the LNP were just as quick to denounce the ALP as being soft on terrorism. But after months of endless slaughter of civilians by the IDF, don’t the polls now show that most Australians don’t support either side of this awful conflict? I get that Muslim Australians and those who support the Palestinian cause would be deeply angered by what is happening in Gaza, but why would that lead to support for the LNP increasing? Most of the LNP supporters I know are very hostile towards people from the Middle East. Or anyone else who doesn’t have white skin, for that matter.
Im from NSW and I can’t even tell you the leader of the oppositions name, nor what he (im pretty sure its a he) looks like
So what hope would the average person who has no interest in politics got?
Most of the LNP supporters I know are very hostile towards people from the Middle East. Or anyone else who doesn’t have white skin, for that matter.
I think you will find it actually has nothing to do with any ones skin colour and more to do with their hatred towards gays and their views on anyone who doesn’t share their religious beliefs, they have a derogatory word for that
Really we on the left are the ones who should be more intolerant of the intolerant but I am not holding my breath.
Chickens for KFC we on the left are
NM, I think that the response to the unqualified support given by the ALP hierarchy to the IDF could be a bit more nuanced that just voting for the LNP which is also in the IDF camp. There are minor parties, and there will be independents with clearly stated positions on the slaughter in Gaza, that will be there for disaffected ALP supporters to consider. There is also optional preferential voting in NSW.