11:31am Friday With 98% of Super Tuesday delegates allocated in the NYT count, Trump leads Haley by 1,062 delegates to 91. The only consolation for Haley is that her vote share has risen to 50.2% in Vermont. If that holds, she will win all 17 Vermont delegates, not just the 9 from a proportional split.
7:34am Thursday summary Haley has withdrawn. It’s been obvious for a long time, but Trump will be the Republican nominee. Dean Phillips also withdrew from the Democratic contest, so it’s virtually official: a Trump vs Biden rematch.
Trump won the Utah caucus by 57-42 last night. This was easily his worst state in 2016, but the Mormons in Utah clearly like him better now. The NYT delegate count gives Trump 1,004 delegates to 89 for Haley, with 1,215 needed to win. Trump will reach that target by March 19. Other than Vermont (Haley by four), Trump’s margins ranged from 15 points in Utah to 76 in Alaska. He now leads the Republican national popular vote count on The Green Papers by 71.7-24.7 (this includes all states that have held primaries or caucuses so far).
This will be my final live blog on the US primaries, and probably my last post here for a while.
Live Commentary
6:28pm Trump has crushed Haley in Alaska by 87.6-12.0. Alaska had proportional rep for delegates, but a 13% threshold was needed. With Haley below 13%, Trump will take all 29 delegates.
4:49pm I don’t know why Utah, where polls closed at 2pm AEDT, still has under 1% counted. The Green Papers now has Trump up to 936 delegates, with Haley on 83.
4:05pm On the Green Papers’ delegate tracker, Trump now leads with 829 to 68 for Haley. and he’s well on track for the 1,215 needed to win. Today’s primaries have also enhanced his popular vote position; he now leads Haley by 71-25 on overall popular votes in the primaries so far.
3:20pm Trump has been CALLED the winner in California, and will take all 169 delegates from that state. In the Senate “jungle primary”, where all candidates from different parties compete on the same ballot and the top two go through to the general election regardless of party, Dem Schiff and Rep Garvey are very likely to qualify.
2:43pm Vermont has been CALLED for Haley, and she currently leads Trump by 49.7-46.0 with 92% in. Can she get over the 50%+ needed to win all 17 delegates?
2:16pm With 90% counted in Vermont, Haley leads Trump by 49.5-46.2, and should win. But due to votes for dropped out candidates, she may not get the 50%+ required to win all of Vermont’s 17 delegates. If she doesn’t, they’ll be proportionally allocated.
1:58pm And now Trump is up to 645 pledged delegates in Green Papers’ count.
1:41pm Green Papers now has Trump up to 558 “soft pledged” delegates, while Haley is still on 43.
1:35pm Minnesota and Colorado, where polls closed at 1pm AEDT, have both been called for Trump, and he’ll easily win both. Haley is still ahead on the NYT projection for Vermont by 2.7% with 52% in.
1:30pm Biden is also romping to huge victories in the Dem primaries.
1:21pm The NYT has been slow to call delegates. The Green Papers has Trump up to 325 delegates, while Haley is still on 43. I have made great use of this site in these articles as they give all the delegate rules.
1:04pm With all polls now closed in Texas, that’s been CALLED for Trump, with the NYT needle pointing to a final result of Trump by 53. Trump will win all 47 Texan statewide delegates and probably at least 90 district delegates (three delegates per district won).
12:26pm The NYT needle is at Haley by 2.3 in Vermont with 28% in. Everything else looks like a Trump blowout.
12:11pm North Carolina has been CALLED for Trump as he leads by 51 points with 9% in. NC is a closed primary available to only registered Reps. The NYT needle has Trump by 52 there. Tennessee has also been called for Trump.
11:54am Trump back ahead in Vermont in both the live count and the NYT projection with 11% in. This is a heavily Dem state at general elections that had an “open” primary, as there’s no registration by party in Vermont.
11:41am Haley is now ahead in Vermont with 7% in, and the NYT needle gives her a 1.6-point forecast lead.
11:35am Hete’s the main NYT page to follow all the results as they come in. There are also congressional primary races in many states voting today. In Vermont, the needle only has Trump winning by 1.6 points.
11:30am With 10% counted in Virginia, it’s been CALLED for Trump, as he leads Haley by 64-34. The NYT needle is at Trump by 31.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Polls close between 11am and 4pm AEDT today for Republican presidential contests in 15 states that will allocate a total of 865 delegates. These include the two most populous states of California and Texas. The large majority of polls in Texas close at 12pm AEDT, but the area around El Paso closes an hour later. Polls close in California at 3pm AEDT.
All of California’s 169 delegates go to the winner if a vote majority is reached (which is almost certain as there are only two candidates remaining). In Texas, the 47 statewide delegates go to the state’s winner, and the 114 district delegates (three for each of Texas’ 38 Congressional Districts) go to the district’s winner. Many other states voting today also have a majority vote wins all delegates rule by statewide or district.
Donald Trump leads Nikki Haley by massive margins in Californian and Texan polls. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregates, he leads by 73.4-18.6 in California, and by 78.4-14.4 in Texas. California has a “closed” primary where only registered Republicans can vote in the Republican primary. In national polls, Trump leads by 77,3-15.2, while Joe Biden leads Dean Phillips in national Democratic primary polls by 75.9-8.2.
In contests held over the last few days, Trump won all 54 delegates available in Missouri, all 39 at the Michigan state convention (these were awarded separately to the 16 that were on offer at the February 27 Michigan primary), all 32 in Idaho, and all 29 in North Dakota. But Haley won all 19 delegates in Washington DC, which gives Democrats over 85% at general elections. Trump now leads Haley on the Republican delegate count by 273-43, with 1,215 needed to win the nomination.
No popular votes were recorded in Missouri, but Trump won all 924 delegates to the state convention at Saturday’s caucuses. In Michigan, Trump won by 98-2 at the state convention after winning the primary 68-27. In Idaho, he won by 85-13, and in North Dakota by 85-14, while Haley won DC by 63-33. These were majority winner takes all contests, except in ND where 60% was required for WTA.
Most national general election polls give Trump a lead over Biden, by roughly a low single-digit margin, and Trump is likely further advantaged by the Electoral College system. In FiveThirtyEight averages, Trump’s net favourability is -8.8, while Biden’s net approval is -18.0. Trump’s ratings have improved recently, while Biden’s haven’t changed much. In a legal victory for Trump, the Supreme Court on Monday unanimously overturned a Colorado court’s decision, so Trump will be on the ballot paper in all states in November.
Right likely to take control of Portugal at Sunday’s election
In January 2022 elections, the centre-left Socialists won an outright majority in Portugal’s legislature. But they had a series of major scandals that led to the resignation of the PM. In November 2023, the Portuguese president sacked the government and called elections for this Sunday, about two years early. The president, who is popularly elected for a five-year term, has more power in Portugal than in most other parliamentary democracies.
The 230 MPs are elected by proportional representation in multi-member electorates. This system gives bigger parties more seats than national PR. Most polls show the conservative Democratic Alliance (AD) leading the Socialists with about 17% for the far-right Chega. An alliance between AD and Chega will easily have enough seats for a majority, with the only question whether they will form such an alliance after the election. The Socialists have held government since shortly after the October 2015 election.
In a key development….
Taylor Swift took time out on Super Tuesday to implore her fans to vote in the 2024 primary elections.
“Today, March 5, is the presidential primary in Tennessee and 16 other states and territories. I wanted to remind you guys to vote the people who most represent YOU into power. If you haven’t already, make a plan to vote today,” Swift shared in a post on her Instagram Story.
“Whether you’re in Tennessee or somewhere else in the US, check your polling place and times at Vote.org.”
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2024/mar/05/taylor-swift-voting-primary-election
Thanks as always Adrian.
I don’t think Haley will do as bad as the 538 averages, but even if she does quite a lot better (given there’s been no recent polls in most states, she will) she won’t do any better on the delegate count. On the GOP side, it’s too heavily weighted towards the winner – which in a 2-person contest is going to be very lopsided.
Trump will average 65-69% of the vote but take +/- 90% of the delegates on offer, across all states taken together today.
Some of the only recent polls in Super Tuesday states recently show Trump up 51-43% in Virginia and 64-36% in North Carolina, far lower leads than expected.
I remain sceptical that Virginia is really that close. OTOH, Haley probably does have a chance of actually winning Maine, Vermont and – especially – Utah.
She will at least get delegates in North Carolina and Virginia, which are among the few that are proportional on the GOP side.
Trump will sweep the south and California with 100% of the delegates, if Haley gets any delegates in Texas it will be single-digit crumbs out of the 161 delegates on offer and all she gets in the deep South.
I thought she was brave to visit Texas on Monday, but maybe she had to politically and she’s probably looking at vote share more than delegates knowing Trump will achieve a majority of delegates by the end of March or so. This isn’t a typical primary in that way.
Alaska and Minnesota are among the hardest to predict, but I assume Trump will win both notwithstanding Lisa Murkowski’s endorsement of Haley.
When GOP primary voters see Haley in their state her ratings go up – but she’s had no time to campaign and millions of votes were already cast even before South Carolina voted and left her time more freed up.
I’m disappointed in the one-sided focus on T****. It’s as if everyone has been captured by the narrative. It’s worse than 2016. (T****’s name is used 23 times in the blog so far, 4 times by me, and Biden only 7, three times by me. Even though he is the incumbent.) When T**** loses, again, this November, I guess we’ll be able to say we survived. And if he wins, we’ll tell ourselves we saw it coming.
We can already predict the broad results. T**** will win the Republican primaries, but that’s not the interesting part. What is interesting is by how much, and what fraction of the Haley Republicans won’t vote for the guy in the actual election in November and what fraction would vote for Biden. The second interesting part is whether the RNC will choose a severely tarnished, broke, and convicted criminal as their candidate in July, and how that thought doesn’t seem to crop up during the primary process. And the third thing of interest will be the comparison of Biden’s lead in the primary with T****’s lead.
EDIT: grocer’s apostrophe, and I can’t count
(It was 5 times by me, not 4.)
The amount of free media the two time presidential vote loser is receiving is mind boggling. It’s like 2016 all over again. This time with Biden’s age replacing Hillary’s emails as topic of concern.
Onto these primaries, of course the outcome is a fait accompli, the only interest is the margin. The other factor is how many Haley voters (which are quite a decent proportion, more than I thought she’d be getting) are never Trumpers, and how many are gettable for Biden.
YaramahZ: “The amount of free media the two time presidential vote loser is receiving is mind boggling.”
Who is the two time presidential vote loser?
Re the primaries: it’s amazing (and depressing) to see the large votes for Trump in the southern states in preference to an actual southerner in Haley.
To me, Trump epitomises the sort of Yankee carpetbagging conman who southerners have long hated. If he gets back in, he will do nothing whatsoever for the people of the southern states. But they all love all the garbage that he says, all the QAnon BS and all that.
It makes you understand why a wide variety of snake oil salesmen used to flourish in the south : it must have been like shooting fish in a barrel.
I’ve quoted it before, but Randy Newman got it 100% right:
“We’re rednecks, we’re rednecks
We don’t know our ass from a hole in the ground.”
I’ve been there. Most of them are the friendliest people you could ever hope to meet. But they simply don’t get it.
PS: I know Randy Newman was actually sticking up for rednecks in a complicated sort of way. But, when they all go and do something stupid like vote en masse for Trump, any subtleties in the lyrics disappear and they mean exactly what they say.
The orange man has lost the popular vote twice. I should say “the two time presidential popular vote loser”. My guess is he’ll lose it again for a third time. And yes I know it doesn’t matter.
It is adversarial for them. Nothing to do with values or outcomes. It is about sticking it to the lefties/liberals/wokes. They have been fed that these people are the enemy. Yes, the fields were conducive to it, but the GOP have tilled, sown and fertilised it.
I said it after Biden won that the Federation needed to be loosened. This isnt a united States anymore and forcing it to be will only make the fall greater. Power needed to be divested further toward the states and let like minded states form coalitions in common legislation and some foreign trade policy rather than continue attempts at federal regulation (Congress is stagnate mess and has been for some time).
It doesnt matter if Biden (or any Democrat) wins in November. The old ways are done. The place is too divided on culture and identity. Little remains that binds the people. The glue fails when one party decides it is more important than the nation.
That is cool AB. Thanks.
“I’ve been there. Most of them are the friendliest people you could ever hope to meet. But they simply don’t get it.”
They at least seem to have figured out that establishment republicans have nothing to offer them, but have somehow concluded that the solution is a man who also has nothing tangible to offer.
I would think that if a moderate republican actually exists, they’re presumably already getting what they’d want with Biden – but then culture war brainrot comes into play. Will be interesting to see how many uncommitteds there are
”
Team Katichsays:
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 at 1:07 pm
I’ve been there. Most of them are the friendliest people you could ever hope to meet. But they simply don’t get it.
It is adversarial for them. Nothing to do with values or outcomes. It is about sticking it to the lefties/liberals/wokes. They have been fed that these people are the enemy. Yes, the fields were conducive to it, but the GOP have tilled, sown and fertilised it.
I said it after Biden won that the Federation needed to be loosened. This isnt a united States anymore and forcing it to be will only make the fall greater. Power needed to be divested further toward the states and let like minded states form coalitions in common legislation and some foreign trade policy rather than continue attempts at federal regulation (Congress is stagnate mess and has been for some time).
It doesnt matter if Biden (or any Democrat) wins in November. The old ways are done. The place is too divided on culture and identity. Little remains that binds the people. The glue fails when one party decides it is more important than the nation.
”
As BK eloquently puts it “America is f**ked”.
How convenient.
Voters in new Alabama congressional district given incorrect poll information
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/05/alabama-primary-election-polling-locations
Polls seem to be wrong by record amounts.
Polls not wrong in Texas or California.
YaramahZ @ #9 Wednesday, March 6th, 2024 – 12:20 pm
He may not. Some indication he is increasing support in reddish states. 1 example, Selzer poll recently has him 15 up in Iowa. Trump won it by 8 in 2020.
There were so few recent polls in any of the states voting, i.e. since other candidates dropped out and various other results in other states – most states have no polls this year – that it’s impossible to judge whether polls were right or wrong.
No polls in California or Texas this year for the primaries, nor virtually anywhere else.
The one poll each in N Carolina and Virginia in February overstated Haley by quite a bit, but whether that’s any kind of quirk to do with early voting I don’t know, doubt that would explain it all.
Why is Utah so slow to give results?
At this point in time, I’ll be surprised if Trump doesn’t win in November, quite probably a popular vote win too although he could be -4% on popular vote and still win the electoral college to become President.
Yeah, there have been. Texas – Trump 70-80 : Haley 10-20 (ish). Result 78-17
Nth C polls seem pretty close to result too.
These are small and specific polls and not often from top pollsters. Them being wrong or right on primaries doesnt really say much imo
Must work, so briefly….. I will leave this here. Keep in mind Silver is probably right of centre, dislikes Trump, has approved of Biden wrt the economy and has been critical of Biden running due to his age. I think I have it wrapped now –
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-white-house-is-betting-the-election
You will need to sign up for the whole article but a good amount is free.
Team Katich
Please provide links to polls. Wiki shows none.
Last California one conducted Nov. 1-30
Last Texas one conducted Dec 1-10
Are you sure you’re not getting muddled up with political sites’ summaries / estimates on polling, e.g. 538 and others, which may show they have been ‘updated’ recently but aren’t based on any polls?
I’m also pretty sure I wouldn’t have missed the reporting on any such polls had they been released tbh, and I don’t recall any.
Hi BTSays
Try this.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/
You can select by state from there to hone down.
Real Clear Politics have a good one too.
The 538 shows 6 polls in Texas Trump v Haley head to head this year.
We’ll see. I’ll trust the polls alot more post the conventions. Not that they don’t have some predictive power now, but they are much more reliable post convention. Wouldn’t it be wild if Biden loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college. Unlikely, but it could happen.
Team Katich
Thanks, I’ll take a look later.
YaramahZ
What states do you see flipping each way for that possible scenario to happen??
Nikki Haley to suspend her campaign this morning American time, no endorsement for Trump expected…. Also all hail the voters of American Samoa
Red alert, Red alert:
Would you believe Biden is defeated in Democratic primaries . He is defeated in American Samoa.
I don’t know but is American sitting President defeated in American primaries?
Ven says:
Wednesday, March 6, 2024 at 11:03 pm
Red alert, Red alert:
Would you believe Biden is defeated in Democratic primaries . He is defeated in American Samoa.
I don’t know but is American sitting President defeated in American primaries?
I have trouble with my s and ed too. You don’t use an s on the end when it is singular.
Best wishes AB. And thanks. Hope you enjoyed all the fish.
No, It won’t be a Trump-Biden rematch. trump won’t be on the ballot in November. And no, this is not wishful thinking. He will succumb to his legal troubles by then.
You might be half right.
A second Trump administration is inevitable. All polls have shown a swing to Trump; Trump will win back all the states he lost in 2020, and also win Nevada and maybe one or two more other states. He is also likely win fair and square the popular vote. The world should stop living in denial.
MelbourneMammoth. A convicted felon and an insurrectionslist has never won the WH. Explain why it will be any different this time? Poll’s don’t decide elections. Voters do.
Kevin
I don’t think Utah loves Trump much more than before. But like several other states, switching to a caucus to sew up the result in favour of Trump (due to his vast and superior organisation, and only the diehards going to caucus, if you look caucus voters are a tiny fraction of primary voters) just worked a dream.
It was still his 2nd worst Super Tuesday state in spite of that. I have no doubt Haley would have won if it had been a primary. As it is, Trump took all 40 delegates – a theme repeated over and over in states. Haley won c.43% in Utah but gets nothing, got c.40% in South Carolina and gets virtually nothing; but gets 29% in Minnesota to Trump’s 69% and gets 12 delegates to his 27.
Looks like Haley got >50% in Vermont after all, so will take the consolation prize of all 17 delegates not just the 9 she’s have got for 49.9%. Oh well, probably gets her over 100 delegates in the final count now, and maybe delays Trump’s official crowning by one day 🙂
Daniel
Well, one poll decides the election – the one held in November.
Meanwhile, opinion polls are predictors of this poll.
And everything points to a Trump win. I don’t like it, but I don’t see the point in denying the obvious.
There’s scant evidence that any of his court cases will have progressed enough to make him a ‘felon’ by November. And even if they have, it will probably increase his vote share – just like all the court cases took him from mediocrity at the beginning of 2023 to invincible by the end of 2023.
I agree with what BTSays says.
As much as I don’t like it, Trump is leading in all the states he needs to decisively win the presidency according to the constitution, which as we found out in 2000 and 2016 does not require a national lead in votes. In fact he’s leading there as well.
Here’s a map of what the election result will look like if the election was held today according to current polls. Until some of those pink states start turning blue, there’s plenty to worry about there.
Biden is swing hard in the State of the Union. Going for Trump directly.
B. S. Fairman @ #38 Friday, March 8th, 2024 – 1:01 pm
He has to. At the very least, the polling screams that Biden will need to campaign hard and well. He needs to show he is up for that.
It is very nearly too late now for the DNC to slip in anyone except Harris….. and time is running out even for that. She hasnt had the opportunity of the primaries to strut her stuff. So she starts well behind the gate.
Quite a good SOTU from Biden for anyone worried that he’s ‘losing it’.
Nothing like hearing directly instead of doctored clips out of context – and from a man who has a longstanding speech impediment due to his successfully overcoming a major stammer.
His humour and smile helps too.
That said, if he doesn’t move the needle on his performance on the economy vs. the perception of Trump on the economy, he doesn’t really have a chance. Fair or unfair, that’s the truth, and Biden is not good at succinct, memorable statements that resonate on the economy.
It horrifies me to say it – But Drumpf has it in the bag.
The US is willingly kissing representative democracy goodbye.
They do not have:
1) a federal independent electoral commission
2) mandatory voting
3) preferential voting.
They also have institutionalised gerrymanders.
State governments determining electoral boundaries is a disaster.
This time round Drumpf will win on the popular vote and the electoral college. Enough people want to screw the system because of the mythical benefits others have -like the right to not be enslaved based on the colour of your skin,….
I am still waiting for Dutton to call Drumpf for what he is. Won’t happen – He’s a wannabe MAGA. Thank your preferred deity that he is a charisma free zone.
The US is fugged. And we are ties to their apron strings.