The first two polls after the government’s tax cuts backflip are out, though neither was conducted entirely after the new policy was announced on Thursday. The Essential Research poll, which was conducted Wednesday to Monday with a sample of 1201, is as yet lacking voting intention numbers, which will hopefully be along later today. As reported in The Guardian, the poll presented respondents with a description of the stage three tax cuts as originally proposed and a choice of four responses, with only 22% favouring that the cuts proceed unchanged, up two from November. Of the remainder, 47% preferred they be “revised so they mostly benefit those on low and middle incomes”, in line with the government’s new policy, up six; 19% favoured an option of delaying cuts for those on more than $200,000 until “economic conditions improve”, down three; and 13% opposed the cuts altogether, down three.
UPDATE: Essential Research’s voting intention numbers are Labor 32% (up one from mid-December), Coalition 34% (steady), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady) with 5% undecided. Its 2PP+ measure has Labor leading 48-46, in from 49-46.
The weekly voting intention poll from Roy Morgan had only half its field work after the announcement, being conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1688. The two-party headline of 50.5-49.5 in favour of Labor is in from 52.5-47.5 last week, though that result was something of an outlier: the previous four polls, conducted from late November to early January with a week’s break for Christmas, were all in the range from 51-49 to 49-51. On the primary vote, Labor is down one-and-a-half to 31% and the Coalition is up by the same amount to 37.5%, with both the Greens and One Nation up half a point to 13.5% and 5% respectively.
Essential Research also asked about respondents’ personal financial circumstances, which reportedly showed improvement “over summer”, though I can’t find the earlier poll being compared to. Eleven per cent rated their circumstances as comfortable, 38% as secure (up seven), 39% as struggling a bit (down four), and 12% as in serious difficulty (down two). Regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, 67% felt Australia should stay out entirely, up six since November, with a five point drop in support for “active assistance to Palestine” to 16% and a one point drop for Israel to 17%. A presumably related question on the ABC found an even 39% for and against the proposition that it was independent and unbiased. Support for a republic was at 42% and opposition at 35%; on Australia Day, 40% supported the status quo, 18% a separate new date, and 31% a new date in addition to the existing one.
In other news, yet another by-election is on the horizon after Labor MP Jim Madden announced his resignation from the Queensland state seat of Ipswich West. Like the by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala, this will be held simultaneously with the local government elections on March 16, at which Madden will run as a candidate for Ipswich City Council. Madden had previously announced he would retire at the next election after a series of unwelcome headlines last year, including claims of bullying and harassment of electorate office staff. Labor had already preselected Wendy Bourne, a Right-aligned former staffer to Annastacia Palaszczuk, who was unopposed after the withdrawal of Neisha Traill, an official with the Left faction Electrical Trades Union.
Entropy,
‘Only’ 0.01% of the UNRWA workers actively supported Hamas on Oct 7 is your get out of jail card for them!?!Oh, and the last time I looked the Australian Baby Nazis hadn’t murdered over 1200 adults and babies. So your comparison, as well as being moot, is weak as. So I can only conclude that no amount of evidence of atrocious behaviour of Palestinians towards innocent Israelis is ever going to convince you to change your rock rigid support of the terrorists. Sad.
At least the two leaders of our government from the Left of Labor, the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister, even though they support a 2 State solution and giving aid to the Gazans, were unblinkered and clear-eyed enough to be able to tell right from wrong, look at the facts and the evidence, and only pause, not ‘block’, the aid until the issue was dealt with.
Oh, and here’s a quote for you because you love them so much:
‘There are none so blind, as those that will not see.’
The balaclavas and masks are coming off.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-north-west-sydney-tradie-leading-the-state-s-neo-nazis-20240129-p5f0uq.html
I hope there are some of Jack Eltis’ workmates that mock him ragged. It’s the only thing that works with those brain dead idiots. And social isolation.
To which I’ll add that these are exactly the demographic Peter Dutton has decided to reach out to. Pauline Hanson is already there. This I know from my son’s Tradie friends. They love them and their messages.
Scott Morrison went to Hawaii again this summer, but as an invited speaker at a conference. And I said all from the beginning he would leave parliament only when he had another job to go to, and so it would seem this indeed was the case.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/scott-morrison-goes-to-hawaii-over-summer-again-20240129-p5f0w4.html
Two handguns?
That poor innocent child…
Or, as my son describes them, ‘pin dicks’:
Eltis talks about a growing membership in the Northern Rivers district of NSW, calls for interest in the Wagga area, and mentions a Townsville branch to complement the Brisbane one.
He discusses the galvanising issues; immigration pushing the white man out of jobs and houses, feminism inverting the natural order. In one post, he talks about the danger of losing male warriors for the cause “as a result of their women not being in order”.
“They are based on the notion of inequality,” said Ross. “That some people are superior, and they put themselves in the superior category. They can say whatever you like about disabled people, Aboriginal people; you can be as racist and homophobic as you like. That’s quite appealing to some young men.”
Or, as I like to characterise them, bird-brains. Hence, support for Donald Trump:
The tie, the blue suit. I’m amazed they haven’t grown their hair out the sides and combed it over the bald top and found themselves orange stage make-up to wear. 😐
Rex Douglas @ #NaN Tuesday, January 30th, 2024 – 6:57 am
There’s more than one, Rex Douglas:
C@t:
The irony of masking themselves is that these are likely the very people demanding muslim women uncover their faces.
And if they really want to push the white Australia message, at least have the balls to do it in Lakemba or Bankstown, not the monocultural Turramurra!
Maybe the Shire mayor isn’t the shoo-in to replace Morrison that everyone seems to think he is.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/scott-morrison-goes-to-hawaii-over-summer-again-20240129-p5f0w4.html
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Paul Karp unpacks the latest Guardian Essential poll in which one in two voters backed the stage three tax cuts changes.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/30/guardian-essential-poll-one-in-two-voters-back-stage-three-tax-cuts-changes
Paul Sakkal tells us about the first instalment of “Nemesis”, the documentary he says will reopen Coalition wounds.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-very-dangerous-prime-minister-turnbull-attacks-abbott-s-prime-ministership-in-new-documentary-that-will-reopen-coalition-wounds-20240129-p5f0x3.html
Australians face another five years of tough personal finances as the economy slows, one of the nation’s top economic forecasters has predicted, with warnings that tax cuts and falling interest rates will only provide muted relief to hard-pressed families, write Shane Wright and Natassia Chrysanthos.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/another-five-years-of-pain-facing-australian-households-20240129-p5f0so.html
Phils Coorey posits that poor poling in Dunkley drove Albanese’s Stage 3 U-turn.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-s-poll-slide-in-dunkley-drove-tax-u-turn-20240129-p5f0ph
Jim Chalmers all but confirmed on Monday that Labor will make changes to negative gearing when he categorically ruled out doing so. That’s what his word is worth these days, says a spiteful Peter van Onselen.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/are-chalmerss-denials-on-negative-gearing-changes-a-precursor-to-what-comes-next/news-story/6c64e02a1115f86f1d514cdd5166c2f9?amp=
The architect of Australia’s last major tax reform push, Ken Henry, has urged Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers to revive a flatlining national reform agenda, arguing that significant change is possible with courage, creativity and political persistence.
https://www.afr.com/politics/be-courageous-henry-urges-albanese-not-to-drop-ball-on-tax-reform-20240129-p5f0uc
Peter Hartcher looks at the provocation emanating from Iran and says, “The temptation to escalate is a trap. Australia, like all US allies except Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, will hope and trust that Biden doesn’t fall into it.”
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/america-is-committed-to-50-allies-what-if-they-all-come-knocking-at-once-20240126-p5f0bz.html
The SMH editorial says, “While Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong has important work to do in the Middle East this week, there is a situation closer to home that should be high on her agenda when she returns. Papua New Guinea remains in a state of emergency after riots broke out across the country last week.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-urgent-task-that-awaits-penny-wong-on-her-return-20240115-p5exbw.html
Angus Thompson reports that the business lobby will ask the Fair Work Commission to reduce the size of this year’s increase to the minimum wage in response to the Albanese government’s tax cuts for people on low incomes. FFS!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dock-tax-cuts-from-increase-to-minimum-wage-employers-say-20240126-p5f0by.html
Independent MPs in the country’s richest seats say many of their constituents feel the Albanese government’s new stage 3 tax cuts are fairer, but warned more substantial reform must be on the agenda to resolve long-standing tax problems such as bracket creep, writes Natassia Chrysanthos. She says that, while Labor will not need the support of independents to pass its tax package in the lower house, the views of teal MPs will shape the debate in parliament and could influence the vote of key crossbenchers in the Senate.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/teal-mps-want-tax-reform-on-the-agenda-as-they-float-support-for-new-cuts-20240127-p5f0g9.html
Evidence that airlines double their ticket prices in the absence of competition will be provided to the government as it considers a major aviation overhaul, reports Adrian Rollins.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8502187/airlines-double-ticket-prices-without-competition/?cs=14329
Jack Waterford declares that Australia’s biggest handicap is believing our own bullshit about our military.
https://johnmenadue.com/australias-biggest-handicap-believing-our-own-bullshit-about-our-military/
Michael Bachelard and Nick McKenzie tell us that a whistleblower has claimed the consulting giant EY was complicit in systematic fraud in which one of the world’s biggest coal companies, Peabody Energy, exaggerated the quality of Australian coal it sold to customers.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/fake-coal-fraud-whistleblower-takes-aim-at-ey-peabody-over-contracts-20240123-p5ezdk.html
Recently, the Human Rights Law Centre reviewed every whistleblower case to go to judgment in Australia. They found no successful judgment in favour of a whistleblower under our public or private whistleblower regimes, explains Yony Watson.
https://michaelwest.com.au/lendlease-whistleblower-finds-no-justice/
Jordan Baker and Jessica McSweeney reveal the identity of the leader of the neo-Nazi mob in NSW.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-north-west-sydney-tradie-leading-the-state-s-neo-nazis-20240129-p5f0uq.html
And an editorial in the SMH says Chris Minns is right to strongly oppose Nazis – they have no place in Sydney.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/chris-minns-is-right-to-strongly-oppose-nazis-they-have-no-place-in-our-city-20240129-p5f0ql.html
Max Maddison reports that NSW Fair Trading has launched an investigation into whether claims made by a cancer charity breached the law after revelations the foundation passed on 23¢ in every dollar raised despite claiming “100% of all donations” went towards supporting children with cancer and their families.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/kids-cancer-charity-uses-lottery-to-fund-operating-costs-despite-donation-claims-20240129-p5f0sd.html
It’s no accident neo-Nazis tried to rally on Australia Day. Denialism of our dark history aids their cause, argues Jason Wilson.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/29/sydney-neo-nazi-rally-attempt-australia-day-comment
Ongoing attempts by lobbyists to evade the topic of phasing out fossil fuel use in recent UN Climate Change Conference talks again highlight its insincerity to actual change, writes Giles Parkinson.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/fossil-fuel-lobby-steer-cop28-climate-deal-towards-global-catastrophe,18279
Michael Smith explains how the Evergrande liquidation order is rattling China’s economy.
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/evergrande-heads-to-liquidation-in-milestone-for-china-s-property-crisis-20240129-p5f0t2
The US economy is growing at a faster rate than anyone, including the Fed, had anticipated. Inflation has dropped back to within the Fed’s targeted range, retail spending has held up and consumer confidence – which was weak through most of last year – seems to be picking up rapidly. Stephen Bartholomeusz looks at how this might rekindle inflation.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-multitrillion-dollar-question-for-the-us-20240129-p5f0p2.html
Nick Bryant reckons Trump has a woman problem way worse than just ‘Missing Melania’.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-has-a-woman-problem-way-worse-than-just-missing-melania-20240128-p5f0la.html
Abortion rights are Biden’s most powerful re-election issue. He should act like it, urges Moira Donegan.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/29/why-is-the-biden-administration-still-afraid-to-talk-about-abortion
“To beat Trump, we need to know why Americans keep voting for him. Psychologists may have the answer”, writes George Monbiot in an interesting essay.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/29/donald-trump-americans-us-culture-republican
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
Cathy Wilcox
Mark David
David Rowe
Alan Moir
Dionne Gain
John Shakespeare
Matt Golding
Spooner
From the US
A senior Fijian military officer allegedly responsible for human rights abuses and torture has been appointed as deputy commander of the Australian Army’s 7th Brigade, amid claims the Australian government has turned a blind eye in its bid to counter Chinese influence in the Pacific.
Colonel Penioni (Ben) Naliva, a one-time right-hand man to former Fiji coup leader and prime minister Frank Bainimarama, is alleged to have been involved in the violent beating of two Fijian politicians, with one victim claiming the soldier tried to force an M16 rifle barrel into his anus during an interrogation.
In another case, the UN Special Rapporteur named then-major Naliva, in a report to the Human Rights Council, as being involved in the savage beating of a Suva businessman that left him unable to walk.
In a third case, a prominent youth activist says Naliva was present when he was detained and tortured in 2006, and did nothing to stop it.
At least two of his alleged victims have told The Australian of their horror at learning the man they say tortured them has been appointed by the Australian government to such an esteemed position.
Several sources in Fiji have speculated to The Australian that Colonel Naliva’s appointment was approved by current prime minister Sitiveni Rabuka because of concern that the soldier – still reputedly a Bainimarama loyalist – was the military officer most able to stage a coup against his already unstable government.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/accused-fijian-torturer-colonel-penioni-ben-naliva-to-command-adf-troops/news-story/dd2d736dbf0f30186b33f53c24cd0ca9?amp
On the Essential poll, increasing economic contentment over summer plus increasing support for the Government’s tax cut revisions equals good news for Labor.
“It’s the economy, stupid!”
By the way, only 22% reckon the ‘promise to the rich’ should be kept unchanged. So much for that.
I’m convinced that there is a cult developing around being strong, which flies against all that is attempting to help men deal with the issues they are experiencing finding a place in the world. I mean, we don’t need hunters for our food anymore.
To say “the barbarians are at the gate” is one description; young men are falling for the line that showing weakness (woke) is bad and like Trump and other potential role models they see strength as their defining characteristic.
To negotiate, empathise, be helpful or kind is anathema, crash or crash through, wether it be in your ute, ‘sorting out’ the wife/partner, and showing aggression whenever they find themselves in a challenging situation.
Gee, didn’t we , and our beloved ANZACs fight the Nazis? I think this typifies how disconnected these guys are from society, but if they can find others like themselves then it helps them feel like everything is ok (not).
Isn’t it good that we have Toyota, Ford, et al to be there and provide them with emotional support vehicles?
Almost half of voters support revising the stage-three tax cuts to help low- and middle-income earners while only about one in five believe the plan should go ahead unchanged in July.
That is the result of the Guardian Essential poll of 1,201 voters, which provides a boost for the Albanese government’s plan to reform the tax package, finding only 22% of respondents agreed the previously legislated cuts should be left untouched.
Essential asked voters last week about their commitment to the stage-three plan legislated by the Coalition with Labor support in 2019.
Respondents were given a detailed description of the original stage-three plan, including that “all income earned between $45,001 and $200,000 will be taxed at 30%” and that as a result a person earning $200,000 would get a $9,075 cut while someone earning $60,000 “will only receive a tax reduction of $375 a year”.
The poll found 47% of voters said “the tax changes should be revised so they mostly benefit those on low and middle incomes”, up five points from November.
A further 19% said tax cuts for those earning less than $200,000 should go ahead while those earning more should have to wait until “economic conditions improve”. About 13% said “the tax changes should not go ahead at all”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/30/guardian-essential-poll-one-in-two-voters-back-stage-three-tax-cuts-changes
Confessions @ #NaN Tuesday, January 30th, 2024 – 7:01 am
Exactly. Also, the covered, all black clothing also suggested to me the kind of clothing Muslim women wear. However, the ideology between the two groups does appear to be similar, in so far as they both support the suppression of women.
Enjoyed watching the Liberal Party bloodletting last night.
Most stunning takeaway was the permanent smirk welded on ScoMo’s face…
Dog’s Brunch @ 7.27am,
Absolutely agree. Also, I was just thinking to myself that luckily my boys were brought up with a father who believed in equality of the sexes and a mother who showed them that women could do everything that men could do in society. I didn’t call it ‘feminism’, I just called it reality.
A tractor blockade established at eight points around Paris is intended to “starve Parisians”, a French farmer has claimed. Benoit Durand, a grain farmer, told French broadcaster BFM TV: “We are holding a siege in Chartres, one hour away from Paris. It’s part of the blockade… the goal is to put pressure on the government.” ”[Blockading Paris] will happen naturally. Parisians are going to be hungry. The goal is to starve Parisians. That’s it”.
Around 800 tractors have surrounded the capital as farmers protest what they say are stringent environmental regulations, red tape and low pay. Near Beauvais, north of Paris, dozens of tractors lined the highway in one of many such protests across the country, displaying banners that read: “Our end will be your hunger” – a play on the similar-sounding French words fin (end) and faim (hunger). Armoured police vehicles were deployed to Rungis on Monday after some farmers threatened to “occupy” it. Over 8,000 tons of goods pass through its market every day to feed nearly 12 million people. In the event of major disruption, Paris would only have three days’ food supplies, as deliveries are made every day, according to government agency Ademe.
‘C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 6:57 am
Or, as my son describes them, ‘pin dicks’:
…’
————————-
Odious, sexist pejorative. By way of contrast how would you feel about calling some bastard woman or other a ‘slack vag?
Men with small penises can suffer hell on earth. They don’t need that reinforced by unthinking comments.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 7:35 am
A tractor blockade established at eight points around Paris is intended to “starve Parisians”, a French farmer has claimed. Benoit Durand, a grain farmer, told French broadcaster BFM TV: “We are holding a siege in Chartres, one hour away from Paris. It’s part of the blockade… the goal is to put pressure on the government.” ”[Blockading Paris] will happen naturally. Parisians are going to be hungry. The goal is to starve Parisians. That’s it”.
….’
———————————-
Seems a bit self-defeating. The taxpayers they are seeking to starve are the ones who are extremely heavily subsidizing the farmers in the first place.
”
Confessionssays:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 6:34 am
The balaclavas and masks are coming off.
He’s a twentysomething tradie from Sydney’s north-west fringe. He has a chubby toddler, runs his own business and leads the NSW chapter of a neo-Nazi organisation that has shot to notoriety after three attempted Sydney gatherings were intercepted by police at the weekend.
”
This is what I thought the group that went to Artarmon Railway station to be during Australia day weekend i.e. them to be from NSW.
I never expected their leader to be from Melbourne and most of them coming from Victoria.
Boerwar @ #NaN Tuesday, January 30th, 2024 – 7:41 am
Tell that to my son. He has utter contempt for those sort of men and describes them, yes, in the most pejorative way possible, by a man, about other men. You may not like it but it’s the unvarnished reality of one young Australian male speaking about other young Australian males.
‘A presumably related question on the ABC found an even 39% for and against the proposition that it was independent and unbiased.’
Of the 39% who regard the ABC as biased: did Essential provide any breakup of the perceived direction of the bias?
“shellbellsays:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 6:56 am
Two handguns?
”
No Shellbell
“two rifles, one shotgun and two handguns” for a twenty something man
The time is right to wind back negative gearing as ‘mum and dad’ investors can’t get a foothold onto the investment ladder
Rising Land taxes are making investing in rental property unattractive
IE fewer wealthier people now using negative gearing, housing crisis
==> negative gearing on the nose
Actually consider retaining for new builds capped at 7 years
Jim Chalmers all but confirmed on Monday that Labor will make changes to negative gearing when he categorically ruled out doing so. That’s what his word is worth these days, says a spiteful Peter van Onselen.
_____________________
Lock it in Eddie.
‘Billie says:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 7:56 am
The time is right to wind back negative gearing as ‘mum and dad’ investors can’t get a foothold onto the investment ladder…’
——————–
Bandt has vision and guts. That should do it, right?
”
BK Dawn Patrol
Paul Karp unpacks the latest Guardian Essential poll in which one in two voters backed the stage three tax cuts changes.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/30/guardian-essential-poll-one-in-two-voters-back-stage-three-tax-cuts-changes
”
BK
Due you see the contrast?
“one in two voters backed the stage three tax cuts changes.” when 90% voters benefit from it.
Some posters yesterday were going on and on about money in pocket will change people’s attitude. How they voted will be different to Voice referendum vote.
Macarthur: ‘By the way, only 22% reckon the ‘promise to the rich’ should be kept unchanged. So much for that.’
78% reckon, one way or the other, that those earning more than $200,000 should not receive their promised tax cut.
Seemingly not embracing Littleproud’s view that it’s ‘not a lot’.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 6:55 am
Scott Morrison went to Hawaii again this summer, but as an invited speaker at a conference. And I said all from the beginning he would leave parliament only when he had another job to go to, and so it would seem this indeed was the case.
Morrison recently confirmed he’d be taking on two new roles in the defence space – as a non-executive vice chair of American Global Strategies and as an adviser to asset management firm Dyne Maritime. Mike Pompeo, who was US secretary of state under Donald Trump, has also been appointed a Dyne strategic adviser. He would’ve felt right at home at the Honolulu conference, sponsored by international arms manufacturers like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/scott-morrison-goes-to-hawaii-over-summer-again-20240129-p5f0w4.html
——————-
As you must be aware Labor supporting AUKUS opened up Morrisons new post politics job. What would have been Morrisons plan with his support of AUKUS originally.
He will still be paid with our generous taxes regularly sent to the USA.
Some sanity, extending the apartheid solution (which is what the two state solution is), is not the way to go. Will sanity get off the ground.
Opinion
Israeli-Palestinian conflict
The two-state solution has failed. A true democracy is the Middle East’s only hope
The first and most important step for ending ongoing human rights violations is allowing people to freely decide between two states, one state or a collection of microstates.
Sarah Leah Whitson
https://www.theage.com.au/world/middle-east/the-two-state-solution-has-failed-a-true-democracy-is-the-middle-east-s-only-hope-20231204-p5eowg.html
When I was in Cape Town, the Church from which South African apartheid started was pointed out to me, it was so unassuming. Each nation unto itself.
http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1017-04992014000300014
Ven:
‘BK
Due you see the contrast?
“one in two voters backed the stage three tax cuts changes.” when 90% voters benefit from it.’
Timing, Ven:
‘… neither [poll] was conducted entirely after the new policy was announced on Thursday. The Essential Research poll … was conducted Wednesday to Monday …’
‘Ven says:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 8:04 am
”
BK Dawn Patrol
Paul Karp unpacks the latest Guardian Essential poll in which one in two voters backed the stage three tax cuts changes.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/30/guardian-essential-poll-one-in-two-voters-back-stage-three-tax-cuts-changes
”
BK
Due you see the contrast?
“one in two voters backed the stage three tax cuts changes.” when 90% voters benefit from it.
Some posters yesterday were going on and on about money in pocket will change people’s attitude. How they voted will be different to Voice referendum vote.’
—————————
1. Some of the polling was done before the picture was complete.
2. Forming the question with the options was difficult.
3. It won’t fully hit people until it shows up in their paychecks, five months away.
It is far too soon to make confident assertions about how the eventual differences will affect opinions about the changes.
‘frednk says:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 8:11 am
Some sanity, extending the apartheid solution (which is what the two state solution is), is not the way to go. Will sanity get off the ground….’
—————————
Both Bibi and Khamanei want a one state solution so your idea might have legs…
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK, and William thanks for the article on the Guardian poll. Worst case I find it hard to see how the polls will get worse for Labor. Given the response to Stage 3 there should be a swing to Labor. All the LNP talk about people on “only $190,000” won’t help the LNP vote either.
Looking forward to the next Essential or Newspoll 2PP.
Ven @ Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 8:04 am:
“BK
Due you see the contrast?
“one in two voters backed the stage three tax cuts changes.” when 90% voters benefit from it.”
===========================
I think I’ve made this mix-up as well, but we need to be clear that it is about 90% of taxpayers who pay less tax under Labor’s S3 than under the Coalition’s S3, not 90% of voters. It will be a somewhat smaller percentage of voters.
Thanks, BK.
The Monbiot article is a must-read, IMO.
The key finding of that poll is that only 22% of respondents wanted the tax cuts to go ahead as legislated. Everyone else, over three quarters of responders, thought that Stage 3 needed to be either changed to be less favourable to high income earners or dropped altogether.
#weatheronPB
White noise fills the ears.
Rain beats on the metal roof.
The silent earth melts.
EricA betz won preselection to the Tas Libs to run in the next state election. The preselection vote count is an eye opener. 4 Lib Candidates with EricA getting 54 of the votes, the other 11 votes split between 2 sitting members and a 4th Lib.
The whispering campaign that EricA is seeking the premiership has already started, and Premier Rockcliff has had to publicly state he himself is the man for the job. I’d expect EricA to walk straight into a cabinet position if the Libs somehow form government at the next election.
The Mercury FB comments certainly have a slant towards public support for EricA, read that as you wish.
In other news, the two ex-Libs that put the current Lib government into minority didn’t get preselection.
All of this puts paid to my favorite local conspiracy theory that EricA was shaping up to form his own Christian Right party to run at the next election, might have happened if he didnt get pre-selection but with numbers like that looks like he was never at risk.
The Mercury https://archive.md/5S3sA
Billie says:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 7:56 am
The time is right to wind back negative gearing as ‘mum and dad’ investors can’t get a foothold onto the investment ladder
Rising Land taxes are making investing in rental property unattractive
IE fewer wealthier people now using negative gearing, housing crisis
==> negative gearing on the nose
Actually consider retaining for new builds capped at 7 years
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Without the ‘mum and dad’ investing in rental properties, there will be less to rent and rents will rise.
As for ‘new builds’ they are often full of defects as builders have no one overseeing their work. Buyers often have to fork out many more thousands in rectification work.
And every young and not so young people ( except the very wealthy ) need to rent for a short or long period in their lives.
Reducing negative gearing options means more people will be homeless.
Governments, state and federal for the last 2 decades have reduced building low rent accommodation. And Federal governments have had big immigration numbers annually. So percentage to population of rental properties has reduced.
Why negative gearing on all properties needs to be maintained. Can’t see governments building enough low rental properties ever to meet demand.
And speaking to people I know, young people in their 20’s are still able to save for a deposit for a home. And buy that home . Not an apartment. Certainly outside capital cities.
And these are people who do not have the bank of mum and dad to help.
Maybe many of those desiring owning their own home are not willing to save? Or don’t have a partner to help here?
As I have said before, the Shorten policy for the May 2019 election of cutting negative gearing for existing investment properties was class envy in full view.
The over 2 million Australians who have at least one investment property are not the wealthy that many like to target. Just middle class Australians who want to protect themselves financially when retired.
And save the government money by not needing the pension.
$1653.40 is the current fortnightly pension for a couple.
$42,988.40 over a year.
$859,768 for 20 years. Quite a cost.
Another reason, better management of money for the government to keep negative gearing.
‘Irene says:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 8:10 am
Confessions says:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 6:55 am
Scott Morrison went to Hawaii again this summer, but as an invited speaker at a conference. And I said all from the beginning he would leave parliament only when he had another job to go to, and so it would seem this indeed was the case.
Morrison recently confirmed he’d be taking on two new roles in the defence space – as a non-executive vice chair of American Global Strategies and as an adviser to asset management firm Dyne Maritime. Mike Pompeo, who was US secretary of state under Donald Trump, has also been appointed a Dyne strategic adviser. He would’ve felt right at home at the Honolulu conference, sponsored by international arms manufacturers like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/scott-morrison-goes-to-hawaii-over-summer-again-20240129-p5f0w4.html
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As you must be aware Labor supporting AUKUS opened up Morrisons new post politics job. What would have been Morrisons plan with his support of AUKUS originally.
He will still be paid with our generous taxes regularly sent to the USA.’
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Why on earth hasn’t Bandt fixed this yet? He’s the longest serving political leader in federal politics and he has yet to achieve anything at all… except stunting, delaying and blocking.
Oliver Sutton @ Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 8:06 am:
“78% reckon, one way or the other, that those earning more than $200,000 should not receive their promised tax cut.
Seemingly not embracing Littleproud’s view that it’s ‘not a lot’.”
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Indeed. It also explains why the Coalition and its media spear-carriers are trying for the ‘it happened to the rich it could happen to you’ angle. I really don’t think that cuts much ice with anyone who can’t see a non-miraculous path towards their own elevation to the ranks of the rich.
”
Peter Hartcher looks at the provocation emanating from Iran and says, “The temptation to escalate is a trap. Australia, like all US allies except Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, will hope and trust that Biden doesn’t fall into it.”
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/america-is-committed-to-50-allies-what-if-they-all-come-knocking-at-once-20240126-p5f0bz.html
”
Hartcher: “The temptation to escalate is a trap. Australia, like all US allies except Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, will hope and trust that Biden doesn’t fall into it.”
Ven: I saw Morning Joe yesterday night. Joe Scarborough is seriously suggesting Biden to Bomb Iran.
Hartcher is no Dove when it comes to going to war. Remember his his articles when it came to China.
But will some posters ask “what does Peter Hartcher know?”
Going to war against Iraq would appear like a picnic when compared to going to war with Iran.
Evangelicals dream of rapture will come true.
”
Macarthursays:
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 8:34 am
Oliver Sutton @ Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 8:06 am:
“78% reckon, one way or the other, that those earning more than $200,000 should not receive their promised tax cut.
Seemingly not embracing Littleproud’s view that it’s ‘not a lot’.”
=======================
Indeed. It also explains why the Coalition and its media spear-carriers are trying for the ‘it happened to the rich it could happen to you’ angle. I really don’t think that cuts much ice with anyone who can’t see a non-miraculous path towards their own elevation to the ranks of the rich.
”
MacArthur
Why are thinking like this?
Didn’t you notice that only 50% people support changes to tax cuts when 90% tax payers get more tax cuts?
Irene @ Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 8:34 am:
“The over 2 million Australians who have at least one investment property…”
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… are still the richest 7.5% of Australia’s 26.6 million people. They are not part of the 92.5% of us.
As WWP suggested
I am beginning to suspect that ALP can’t sell hot water to Eskimos.
Have people actually read the ‘one in two support tax cut stories’?
Roughly- 50 percent support, 30 percent want the high income earners to get nothing now, and 20 percent are opposed…
So in reality it is 80 percent support and 20 percent opposed to Labors changes.
On the psychology of the young men attracted to Nazism, sexist insults won’t help, but I agree this group does have social problems. It has been a problem a long time, especially in rural areas.
Years ago I worked in a government office in Gympie north of the Sunshine Coast. It was traditionally a rural area where a fit young man could get good work helping on farms etc. Even then (1990s) there were real social problems with young adults.
Except mechanization had started changing that. Unless you had skills even farm work was drying up. A generation of young men who had not tried at school realised they had few options. The top sportsmen could move to Brisbane and try out for a team. There was a distressing number of suicides and drug problems.
Meanwhile a lot of girls were pregnant by 20. When I asked a quite bright female admin assistant working in our office why she never went to Uni and got married and had kids so young she said “what else is there to do in Gympie (after high school for a girl)”?
I think a lot of young men buy utes because it symbolises being a tradie with skills in control of your own destiny. Most are not tradies and lack those skills. They crave the substance of feeling useful, so settle for adopting the image.
It was no accident Pauline Hanson campaigned in the Gympie area. Now neo-Nazi groups are targeting the same sorts of places. Being told that immigrants are the reason they never had career success is what they want to hear. It wasn’t their fault.
All that being said, and not to defend such groups, Australia increasingly failed its young people over the last 25 years. Education and housing got more expensive. Real wages for starting and low skilled jobs declined in real terms. Destroying TAFEs was a particular blow for those school leavers unlikely to succeed at Uni. It should not be a surprise that movements like Nazism find this fertile ground for recruiting, just as it was in bankrupt 1930s Germany.