Mid-week miscellany: Cook by-election, Morgan poll, SA redistribution (open thread)

Reports suggest the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook is likely to be held in April, with a contested Liberal preselection looming.

A second federal by-election is now in the works after Scott Morrison announced his retirement from politics yesterday, adding to the pile of looming electoral events canvassed in the previous post:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook could be held concurrently with the Dunkley by-election on March 2 if Morrison formalises his resignation this week, but Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports it will “not be held until April at the earliest”. Liberal sources quoted by Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald said Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce would nominate for preselection, with one factional moderate rating him a “shoo-in”. However, Simon Kennedy, who ran unsuccessfully for Bennelong in 2022, was also likely to run and would have backing from conservatives. Also mentioned was Gwen Cherne, “who works in veterans affairs”, and former Premier Mike Baird, though it seems entreaties to him are likely to fall on deaf ears.

• The weekly Roy Morgan federal poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 51.5-48.5 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 32.5% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one), Greens 12.5% (up half) and One Nation 5% (up half). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675.

• The procedure for a South Australian state redistribution has commenced with the call for submissions, which are due by April 19. Draft boundaries are scheduled for publication on August 15, with finalisation to follow in November.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,806 comments on “Mid-week miscellany: Cook by-election, Morgan poll, SA redistribution (open thread)”

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  1. I’d question the Maranoa figures. How many people “earn” $60k but are sitting on farming properties worth $5m or more?

    Cockies always cry poor.

    These people dont want to pay tax when they choose to take out income from their properties.

  2. That weird tweet of Dutton’s having a go at David Crowe still hasn’t been taken down. It’s extremely unusual for any politician, let alone a party leader, to launch a personal attack on a leading Press Gallery journalist. Perhaps it was meant as a joke, although, if so, it was very poorly expressed.

    He happens to reside in a state in which Nine Media doesn’t have much influence, but I doubt that many of his colleagues in NSW and Victoria would be feeling very pleased with him tonight.

  4. GG:

    For someone that eschews the political horse race we call polling, Possum is agitated about a result at a particular time that doesn’t continue to resonate beyond that issue.

    No one ever lost an Election because of a Referendum result.

    Pretty sure that was Ven making the point about the referendum, not Possum, though I admit the formatting does make it pretty ambigious.

    Blockquotes, people. Blockquotes.

  5. Meher,

    Dutton is peeved about Crowes insider info that filled his piece from last Saturday.

    Dutton has also been known to call Sam Maiden , “A mad forking witch”.

  6. The program after was more interesting about submarine cables and China fronted by Jeremy Fernandez.

    Apparently Taiwan has had 27 undersea cables go out in the last 5 years. This is regarded as a very high rates – apparently all caused by Chinese fishing trawlers accidentally dragging the undersea cables.

  8. $190000 may not be ‘that much’ to David Littleproud, but it’s an awful lot to more than 90% of Australians. I think it’s true to say that the ‘class warfare’ is coming in the other direction from that which David Littleproud is attempting to imply. It’s coming from the wealthy, who don’t seem to ‘get’ just how privileged they are. And it’s trying to engender sympathy from the less well-off for the well-off. It’s a perverse strategy for a political party to take. Mainly because this lot of Liberals and Nationals aren’t as deft in deploying it as John Howard was.

  9. meher baba:

    It’s such an odd thing for the leader of a major political party to write, especially someone like Dutton who, er, isn’t exactly known for his snarky tweets. I was convinced it was from a parody account when I first saw it.

  10. Peter Dutton has barely kept his political bovver boy instincts in check since becoming Opposition Leader. However, it looks like the changes to S3 have really got him rattled.

  11. A couple of things:

    1. Abbott and BOJO had journalistic careers before they became politicians and PMs and
    2. They both performed woefully as Ministers and PMs
    3. The MSM in Australia and Britain gave them favourable coverage than they deserve.
    4. There was parliamentary revolt against them for their roles in PMship.

  13. Switched off Nemesis just after the Bronwyn Bishop debacle. (Not because I wasn’t enjoying it, but because I had other things to do. I’ll watch the rest later tonight or tomorrow.) Fascinating, darkly hilarious, and often truly depressing stuff, even if it doesn’t reveal a whole lot that we didn’t already know from other sources.

  14. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, January 29, 2024 at 10:49 pm
    $190000 may not be ‘that much’ to David Littleproud,
    ===================================================================

    In the first part of his statement he claims it is not much. Yet in the second half he claims it is class warfare. Which seems to imply it is enough for him to consider you upper class for earning it. Otherwise his class warfare statement makes no sense. It appears in his statement he is having an each way bet by labelling it “not much” and “class warfare” in the one statement.

  16. The Prime Minister on UNRWA:

    Palestinian funding could resume with “protections”: Albanese

    PM Anthony Albanese says the Australian government wants to resume its funding to the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, but want assurance of further “protections” about where that money goes.

    Australia joined allies in pausing funding to UNRWA after Israel provided the agency with information alleging that as many as 12 of its staff were involved in Hamas’s 7 October attack on southern Israel.

    Speaking on Triple J’s Hack program tonight, Albanese said: “we want the funding to resume but there’s a pause on while this investigation takes place. The foreign minister [Penny Wong] is talking with the United Nations.”

    Albanese went on to say: “We want to make sure that protections are put in place to ensure that the money that Australia is giving, goes to the right purpose.”

    Albanese said it was “unfortunate”, saying “UNRWA do good work overwhelmingly, but this is of real concern.”

    On Triple J, Albanese went on to talk up the increased funding from the federal government to the Occupied Palestinian Territories, saying his administration was also assisting other agencies.

    “We believe this is very important that the humanitarian assistance gets to the people who need it, when they need it, and we know they need it now,” the PM said.

    He went on to reference the investigation into UNRWA, saying: “we are very conscious of the pressures which are on, but the investigation that will take place quickly, we want to see these issues sorted out but it is appropriate that a pause take place given the revelations which have appeared in recent days.”

    Hack host Dave Marchese read out a text from a Triple J listener, who asked if Albanese’s position regarding Palestine and Israel had changed, and claiming he wasn’t as “vocal” as he had been earlier in his career.

    Albanese responded: “we have been very vocal”.

    “We have voted for a humanitarian ceasefire in the United Nations, we have supported a two state solution, we reversed the decision of the former government to move the Australian embassy and to change the designation of the capital of Israel. We provided additional funding for humanitarian support in the Occupied Palestinian Territories.”

    (The Guardian)

  17. ”
    Mavissays:
    Monday, January 29, 2024 at 10:42 pm
    True to form, the most disingenuous & dishonest player in tonight’s reliving of Abbott’s downfall was Morrison.
    ”

    Mavis
    The worst 4 policies implemented by an Australian government since WW2 happened during ATM years and Morrison implemented all of those policies as Minister or PM.
    1. Nauru refugee camps policy as Immigration minister
    2. Robo Debt policy as Social security minister
    3. S3 tax cuts as PM
    4. AUKUS deal as PM.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Morrison#:~:text=On%2018%20September%202013%2C%20Morrison,boats%20from%20entering%20Australian%20waters.

  18. Entropy @ #3765 Monday, January 29th, 2024 – 10:56 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, January 29, 2024 at 10:49 pm
    $190000 may not be ‘that much’ to David Littleproud,
    ===================================================================

    In the first part of his statement he claims it is not much. Yet in the second half he claims it is class warfare. Which seems to imply it is enough for him to consider you upper class for earning it. Otherwise his class warfare statement makes no sense. It appears in his statement he is having an each way bet by labelling it “not much” and “class warfare” in the one statement.

    I think he’s trying to use the ‘class warfare’ epithet to reinforce his, ‘it’s not that much’ line by attempting to imply that the ‘class’ on $190000+ are being attacked, and ‘warfare’ has been declared on them. It’s a very ‘up is down’ use of the ‘class warfare’ slogan, but it’s of a piece with the Coalition’s appeal to ‘Aspirationals’ that underlies it. I think.

  19. Cat: I’m on my phone ATM and would struggle to copy and paste it. But try Chris Bowen’s twitter feed: you’ll find it quoted there.

  20. Bojo is the UK’s Abbott, Abbott is Australia’s Bojo.

    Wasn’t able to watch Nemesis tonight. Will have to catch up on iView.

  21. Having external enemies is a key element of Iran’s defense against revolution/overthrow internally. Its hardly an innovation to use external foes and scapegoats internally to fashion a united front in fascist and authoritarian regimes

  22. Ollie Pope scores 196 to help England recover from a 190 run deficit and win the first Test against India in Hyderabad.

    Jannik Sinner makes a stunning recovery from two sets down in the Australian Open finals to beat Daniil Medvedev 3-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3.

    Moral of the story: whether you’re a Pope or a Sinner, everyone has a fighting chance, so give it your best!✨

  23. The Coalition have been waging warfare against people and institutions it didn’t like, including the unemployed, the tertiary education sector, the ABC, the (intellectual and cultural) “elites”, trade unions and their membership, industry superannuation, renewable energy, science, especially climate science, even the weather bureau, etc etc. Dividing the country and going after the bigger half is their business model.

  24. LVT

    Not everyone in Maranoa wears a blue shirt and tan strides, drizabone and RM Williams. No doubt they skew the average higher, but there are plenty low income earners in Nat electorates

    Eg in Maranoa close to 20% either indigenous or not saying

  25. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Monday, January 29, 2024 at 10:56 pm
    UNRWA supporting Hamas gets more legs.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/world/middleeast/gaza-unrwa-hamas-israel.html

    ===========================================================================

    Unless you are subscribed you can’t read it. Does the article cite independent sources that verify claims made?. Because the only sentence i could read before the login banner came down. Said Israel officials, which is hardly an independent source. As Israel has form in making up stories about aid workers. See link to red cross statement in December.

    https://www.icrc.org/en/document/debunking-harmful-narratives-about-our-work-israel-and-palestinian-occupied-territories

  26. The rich aren’t really rich. They suffer from a lot of financial stress. Rich people living in rich suburbs have huge morgages. They have to live in huge houses, to impress their friends at their dinner parties. They have to drive really expensive cars, to impress their friends at their dinner parties. They have to send their kids to really expensive schools, to impress their friends at their dinner parties. They have to go on really expensive holidays,
    to impress their friends at their dinner parties. The list goes on.

    What a lot of people don’t understand is that it costs a lot of money to be rich. They can hardly live within their means. They’re really struggling to keep their heads above water. And now they’ve been screwed by the Labor government not giving them their well deserved tax cut – tax cuts they really needed and were relying on. They might have to cut back on something but everything is really essential. And what would their friends at their dinner parties think? No wonder they’re angry. No wonder they booed Albanese at the tennis. Those tickets weren’t cheap.

  29. Entropy,

    You’ll need to do your own research.

    I subscribed because of Wordle. Costs 50 cents a week and I get total access.

    Best deal ever.

  31. subgeometer says:
    Monday, January 29, 2024 at 11:18 pm

    Having external enemies is a key element of Iran’s defense against revolution/overthrow internally. It’s hardly an innovation to use external foes and scapegoats internally to fashion a united front in fascist and authoritarian regimes.

    ———————————————————————————

    Having external enemies is a key element of the U.S. maintaining the military industrial complex upon which its economy depends.
    It’s hardly an innovation to use external foes and scapegoats internally to win elections.

  33. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Monday, January 29, 2024 at 11:31 pm
    Entropy,

    You’ll need to do your own research.

    I subscribed because of Wordle. Costs 50 cents a week and I get total access.

    Best deal ever.
    ==============================================================

    I think sentence i saw told me how independent sources were. So want bother subscribing. Though NYT is a quality newspaper. I’m fine with them reporting this, as long as they are clear on their sources. Which from the sentence i saw they seem to be.

  34. So it seems that what set Dutton off was learning about Katherine Murphy going to work for the Labor government, so he fired off a bitchy Tweet about David Crowe not getting the job.
    As far as I can tell, anyway.

    I think he’ll live to regret it.

  35. steve davissays:
    Monday, January 29, 2024 at 11:41 pm
    Rainman
    The rich are fucking stupid if that is the way they go on.

    ===================================================================

    It is the premise of that British comedy “Keeping up Appearances”.

  37. c@t. I agree. The Press Gallery – even the Murdoch hacks – tend to circle the wagons when one of their own is attacked by outsiders.

  38. A person earning $190,000 is in the top 4% of wage earners. So Littledick is defending 4% of the electorate. What a plonker !!

  39. Vensays:
    Monday, January 29, 2024 at 11:10 pm
    Ollie Pope scores 196 to help England recover from a 190 run deficit and win the first Test against India in Hyderabad.

    Jannik Sinner makes a stunning recovery from two sets down in the Australian Open finals to beat Daniil Medvedev 3-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3.

    Moral of the story: whether you’re a Pope or a Sinner, everyone has a fighting chance, so give it your best!
    ===============================================================

    I doubt the Pope will have much chance next match. That wicket will be doctored more than a patient with rare illness in a teaching hospital.

  40. steve davissays:
    Monday, January 29, 2024 at 11:52 pm
    A person earning $190,000 is in the top 4% of wage earners. So Littledick is defending 4% of the electorate. What a plonker !!
    t
    =====================================================================

    Most people in his electorate on or above that wage would be in a family trust. So they pay a flat 30% tax on profits during good seasons. Actual number on the normal tax bands getting more than $190k in his electorate i suspect would be well below 1%.

  41. Peter Dutton is just being a massive hypocrite. What about Mark Simkin? Also, the guy, whose name escapes me, that leads the Federal Liberal Secretariat was a former journalist!

    And, yes, if Dutton had a political brain to bless himself with he would have congratulated Murphy and not hit out at the collective ‘glass jaw’ of the CPG.

  44. One thing i found interesting in Nemesis was how close Frydenberg was with Abbott. Walking close to him in Abbotts group heading to the leadership challenge. If Frydenberg was truly a moderate he would have been with Turnbull. He obviously rebranded himself but in the Abbott days it looks like he was strong backer of the conservative aligned Abbott.

  45. As a resident of Maranoa (Kingaroy) I can assure you that most are on low incomes and who would benefit greatly from the government’s proposed tax cuts. Unfortunately, it is also a very conservative electorate. I can never figure this out because I believe that its population are far better off under a Labor government than the Coalition.

    Even so, both Federally and State they suffer from being such safe seats. The coalition doesn’t have to do anything to win and for Labor there is no point in doing the bare minimum as it won’t make a difference to how the majority vote.

  46. Ronzysays:
    Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 12:31 am
    As a resident of Maranoa (Kingaroy) I can assure you that most are on low incomes and who would benefit greatly from the government’s proposed tax cuts. Unfortunately, it is also a very conservative electorate. I can never figure this out because I believe that its population are far better off under a Labor government than the Coalition.

    Even so, both Federally and State they suffer from being such safe seats. The coalition doesn’t have to do anything to win and for Labor there is no point in doing the bare minimum as it won’t make a difference to how the majority vote.
    ==============================================================

    Just looked on the radar. That’s one big blob of rain you have up there. Stay safe.

  47. Entropy says:
    Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 12:30 am

    One thing i found interesting in Nemesis was how close Frydenberg was with Abbott. Walking close to him in Abbotts group heading to the leadership challenge. If Frydenberg was truly a moderate he would have been with Turnbull. He obviously rebranded himself but in the Abbott days it looks like he was strong backer of the conservative aligned Abbott.
    ________________
    Frydenberg was never a moderate. I don’t think he ever pretended to be a moderate. Yet a lot of people think he is.

  48. 12 alleged terrorists out of a workforce of 13000 at UNRWA. So less than 0.1% as compared to the number of alleged war criminals that served with Australian special forces that served in Afghanistan, somewhat higher.

  49. RPsays:
    Tuesday, January 30, 2024 at 12:49 am
    12 alleged terrorists out of a workforce of 13000 at UNRWA. So less than 0.1% as compared to the number of alleged war criminals that served with Australian special forces that served in Afghanistan, somewhat higher.

    ————————————————————————

    A fair point. I wonder what professions the neo-nazis wandering around Sydney on the weekend are in. Should we suspend every business they work for too?. Until we are satisfied those workplaces are not breeding grounds for neo-nazis?.

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