Friday miscellany: culture war edition (open thread)

Poll results on republicanism, Australia Day and boycotting Woolworths, plus Roy Morgan voting intention numbers and preselection latest.

Roy Morgan remains the only regularly reporting pollster to have returned for the year on voting intention, but Essential Research presumably isn’t far off. Past experience suggests it should be at least another week before Newspoll is back in the game. Which leaves us with:

UPDATE: There are now voting intention results for the YouGov poll mentioned below. Labor’s two-party lead is out to 52-48 from 51-49 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up three), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 13% (down two), One Nation 7% (steady).

• This week’s Roy Morgan poll found Labor with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, after the Coalition led 51-49 upon the pollster’s return for the year a week ago. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up two-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half). The poll was conducted from a sample of 1727 last Monday to Sunday.

• Pollster DemosAU, which produced accurate polling on the Indigenous Voice referendum, has a poll showing strong support for a republic referendum in the next five years, but also that any given model for a republic will have a hard time ahead of it. On the former count, 47% said yes and 39% no, a notable contrast with Freshwater Strategy’s finding of 55% opposition to a referendum “now”. On the latter, “direct election with open nomination” trailed the status quo 38-41; “executive president/US model” trailed 35-43; “ARM ‘Australian choice’ model” trailed 32-45; the 1999 referendum proposal trailed 27-48; and the McGarvie model, for all its impeccable credentials, did worst of all at 27-49. The aforementioned are summaries of more detailed question wordings that can be found on the methodology statement. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1300.

• YouGov has an Australia Day themed poll finding 49% support for keeping the holiday as its present date, 21% for changing the date, and 30% favouring a “two-day public holiday that celebrates old and new”. Respondents were also which of three options was closest to their view concerning Peter Dutton’s call for a boycott of Woolworths and Big W: support for Dutton’s position, which scored 20%; support for Woolworths and Big W, which scored 14%; and “my main concern with supermarkets now is excessive price rises rather than this issue”, accounting for the remaining 66%. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1532.

Other news:

Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail reports the by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala simultaenously with Queensland’s local government elections on March 16, and that the Liberal National Party is expected to field a candidate for the safe Labor seat. Labor’s candidate is likely to be Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick.

• Liberal preselection nominations have closed for Kooyong and Goldstein, where Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson were respectively defeated by teal independents in 2022. As previous reports indicated, Kooyong will be a four-way contest between Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris, Michael Flynn and Rochelle Pattison, with Hamer boasting the support of Frydenberg. In addition to Wilson and the previously reported Stephanie Hunt, the Goldstein preselection will also be contested by IPA research fellow Colleen Harkin. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the preselections are likely to be held shortly after the Dunkley by-election.

Dan Jervis-Bardy of The West Australian reports Patrick Hill, Canning mayor and former police officer, and Howard Ong, a Singapore-born IT consultant, will seek Liberal preselection in Tangney, where the party suffered one of its worst defeats of the 2022 election at the hands of Labor’s Sam Lim. The report says the former member, Ben Morton, is understood to have ruled himself out. It also relates that Senator Michaelia Cash is marshalling support for Moore MP Ian Goodenough in the face of a preselection challenge from former Stirling MP Vince Connelly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,286 comments on “Friday miscellany: culture war edition (open thread)”

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  1. Wat:

    No, no, you don’t understand.

    When Labor is doing stuff that Boerwar likes, then all must swear allegiance to dear leader lest they be bored to death by an endless series of copypastas and poorly formatted lists

    But if Labor does anything Boerwar doesn’t like, it’s time to vote informal.

    It’s quite simple, really.

  2. TPOF @ #2195 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:35 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:29 pm
    I was just listening to The Pretenders song, ‘Brass In Pocket’, as the thought occurred to me as well that that is the tl:dr of the tax changes announced by the government.

    ____________________________________

    I was thinking of that. I used to think she was British – she so reflected that vibe. In fact she was from Akron Ohio. She wrote a fascinating biography that I read. So much more grungy and punk that you would think from her songs. And she actually worked with Malcolm McLaren and Vivienne Westwood in their boutique and with the Sex Pistols!

    I know. I lived in a Share House with an Aussie punk band when I was at Uni.

    John Lydon worked at ‘Sex’ as well.

  3. Dr Doolittle says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:27 pm
    TPOF at 10.13 pm, Rainman at 9.45 pm

    A short history lesson. There never ever was, anywhere, a “brilliant ‘Stalinist’ argument”.
    ______________________________________

    I said a Stalinist absurdity – which probably accords more with what you posted.

  4. C@tmomma: Which is why the ABC needs institutional reform instead of hands-off treatment.

    Dreyfus had the right idea when he essentially resolved to nuke the comprehensively Liberal-stacked AAT from orbit and start again with an institutionalised merit-based appointment system to try to break the cycle that got the AAT in such a mess in the first place. Intervening – but not just appointing his mates, trying to fix the structural weakness once and for all.

    The governing structures of the ABC need a similar treatment.

  5. Dr Doolittle says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:57 pm

    “What happened the last time a PM had a DD brainwave? Turnbull recreated Hanson”

    The one good thing that Turnbull did was calling the DD and changing the Senate voting for better(thereby upsetting the crossbenchers who relied on the vote harvesting preference whispering).

    Unfortunately the short term price of that was to have a full Senate DD election with half the normal quota but that has now washed through the system.

    I don’t recall Turnbull doing anything else useful.

  6. One small detail everyone is forgetting: the Murdoch media, Sky News, 2GB, 3AW. They will still be anti Labor right up to the 2025 election.

    They will be anti Labor right up to the 2100 election

  7. To get any legislation through the Senate requires 39 votes.

    ALP.has 26
    Greens 11
    Pocock 1
    Thorpe.1

    That would do it.

    Otherwise they need to get Lambie’s 2 votes.

    Greens will want to slug high income earners even more and Lambie will want them to build a bridge to Tassie.

    Lots of committees and horse trading before it even reaches a vote.

    They should just leave them, imperfect as they are, as the broken promise campaign that Murdoch et al will run all the way to election day in 2025.

  8. Democracy Sausage @ #2176 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:53 pm

    So, if the Poll Bludger,commentariat is correct, Albanese has already won the next election. So who will take over from Dutton as Liberal leader?
    One small detail everyone is forgetting: the Murdoch media, Sky News, 2GB, 3AW. They will still be anti Labor right up to the 2025 election.

    Nobody’s just won the next election. Politics is hard work and elections are often challenges. You’re always going to find bitter opposition and people who are going to be mean. There is no magic button you can push to be guaranteed of an easy run. Even when an election is a free win, it’s usually circumstantial and not just because of One Simple Trick.

    Focus on governing well, communicating with (not at) your electorate and when you face opposition, you fight, rather than back down because they’re mean. And, even then, there are so many variables and factors (that aren’t always under your control) that can work for or against you. That’s the secret. No magic tricks, just hard work. If that’s too much, take up knitting and let someone else who’s willing to do the job do it.

  9. Rainman says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:25 pm
    ‘I don’t get the Stalinist bit’

    You do have a habit of forgetting what you said.

    —— ————————————————————————

    TPOF says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 8:46 pm
    Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 8:44 pm
    The many Labor partisans who have supported S3 all this time have a bit of egg on their faces.

    If it wasn’t for those who applied pressure for change, the greatest wealth shift to the rich would have gone through.

    _____________________________________

    We’ve gone Stalinist absurdity here.

    ______________________________________________

    Yeah. You’re dead right. I forgot that one. So Rex. Good to see that you have signed on to Stalinist absurdity too. Join Rex’s crazy bandwagon and rewrite history to suit yourself.

    The funny thing is that Rex is not real; Rex is a persona created for this blog. I think you are real, which is sad for you.

  10. Cassandra Goldie won’t be happy until the rate of Jobseeker and Youth Allowance is substantially increased.
    The government in this package or the budget will have to at least boost Rent Assistance.
    You have to also wait for redistributions in NSW, VIC and WA, which could alter the margins in many seats. I do agree that QLD federally will have very slim pickings for Labor, and so will TAS.

  11. Rebecca @ #2202 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:38 pm

    C@tmomma: Which is why the ABC needs institutional reform instead of hands-off treatment.

    Dreyfus had the right idea when he essentially resolved to nuke the comprehensively Liberal-stacked AAT from orbit and start again with an institutionalised merit-based appointment system to try to break the cycle that got the AAT in such a mess in the first place. Intervening – but not just appointing his mates, trying to fix the structural weakness once and for all.

    The governing structures of the ABC need a similar treatment.

    I think both the jobs of David Anderson and Ita Buttrose are up for consideration this year. Now’s the government’s chance for an overhaul. The ABC have suffered from the stochastic terrorism of the Coalition for so long they have become captured. They need a new broom to sweep it clean. Someone who will laugh in the face of the Coalition attacks on the ABC. But it has to be hand-in-hand with solid scaffolding into a new courageous era that takes no prisoners, Right or Left. Like it used to be.

  12. Bob Lynch: Did you miss that Lambie is pro-amending Stage 3 in basically the same terms that Labor has proposed, and was in favour of it long before Labor decided they were?

    Pocock and Lambie should be solid for it, and the Greens would be idiots to horse-trade in a way that might sink it given that there isn’t all that long to stop the legislated cuts going into force. I expect that they’ll decide this isn’t the hill to die on and pick something else where there isn’t an imminent statutory cliff to go off.

  13. The uneasiness, lack of confidence, speculation and pathetic fallback about broken promises by the LNP is telling.

    Dutton and the leftovers are on the ropes, defending predictably (and badly) and as the polls suggest are behind on the score board.

    The Murdock media and “tack ons” are beginning to wonder just how many feathers it takes to pump up the Dutton rooster.

    And Morrison pops up with his announcement to remind everyone what a rabble without a cause is the remnant LNP, both teal less and without a tinge of green, dishonest and desperate and in need of renewal.

    Dutton will be forced back to the armoury, a quick pull through and out with the “racist” schmuck and looking every bit the despised outsider.

    Albanese, the political lifer, at the”top of his game”

  14. Rebecca @ #2213 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:45 pm

    Bob Lynch: Did you miss that Lambie is pro-amending Stage 3 in basically the same terms that Labor has proposed, and was in favour of it long before Labor decided they were?

    Pocock and Lambie should be solid for it, and the Greens would be idiots to horse-trade in a way that might sink it given that there isn’t all that long to stop the legislated cuts going into force. I expect that they’ll decide this isn’t the hill to die on and pick something else where there isn’t an imminent statutory cliff to go off.

    As Democracy Sausage suggests, it might be the best bet for The Greens to negotiate an increase to rental assistance for those on welfare, in exchange for their support for the tax package.

  15. C@tmomma: I hope you’re right and that actually happens. I’m afraid it’s going to be closer to their response to the RBA succession than the cleaning-house that happened with the AAT.

  16. Democracy Sausage says:
    “So, if the Poll Bludger commentariat is correct, Albanese has already won the next election.”

    Not quite …

    Boer War is hailing the ascension of Prime Minister Dutton.

  17. Tricot at 7.54 pm

    Generally correct in substance about the enduring LNP problem, noted belatedly even in the Libs’ 2022 post-election review, but J. Bishop got 11 votes in August 2018. The two votes you referred to was probably the number of WA Libs who voted for her, including herself. Nationally it was more than two (e.g. herself, Turnbull and definitely Ms Australia on $40 a day, Julia Banks, among several others).

  18. C@tmomma: Would be a sensible position – though it could be moot given the amount of talk that Labor might do it anyway. If they don’t, not much of a stretch to push for it.

  19. Rebecca @ #2217 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:48 pm

    C@tmomma: I hope you’re right and that actually happens. I’m afraid it’s going to be closer to their response to the RBA succession than the cleaning-house that happened with the AAT.

    I didn’t put it out there originally, but I guess I should, that I agree with you to the extent that they may not think it’s the right thing to do to get rid of David Anderson because he’s the first Indigenous MD of the ABC. It shouldn’t enter into their logic, but it may enter into their sentiment.

  20. I’m going to a mate’s birthday party on the weekend. I’m a fish out of water with the wide group of mates going. Nearly all tradies. They’ll all be pretty much in the top bracket and have zero regard for society the other side of their front door.

    Most have a couple of kids in their early to mid 20’s. Will drop in at some stage when I’m inevitably harrangued about “broken promises”, the question if they think their kids will vote for their own interests and not their parents. It’s an LNP enclave within a safe Labor seat so I’ll need to have some fun!

  21. I guess I live in a world where, as a Canberran, I still get mocked by non-Canberra family for being in the only S&T that voted Yes for the voice. Hence the extreme scepticism that any S3 change would be a politically neutral exercise.

    The only way I could see it work would be if the nominal total cut is larger than the current package (a “my billions is larger than your billions” fight), though it would be silly to discount the legislative challenge (not even the Greens, you’d still need a Lambie + Pocock).

    Nevertheless, the APS will dutifully be preparing both Red and Blue books when the time comes (sorry, no Green book yet).

  22. Oliver Sutton says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:23 pm

    That preselection wasn’t the first to be overturned and it won’t be the last – by all parties – but they are the exception to the rule.

  23. C@tmomma: I do think there’s a real need to find a way to sweep the ABC board and reconstitute it regardless of what happens to Anderson (as Buttrose is gone regardless), because even if Buttrose and Anderson both went there would be a lot of rot left at the top.

  24. Dr Doolittle says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:27 pm
    TPOF at 10.13 pm, Rainman at 9.45 pm

    A short history lesson. There never ever was, anywhere, a “brilliant ‘Stalinist’ argument”.

    Dear Dr Doolittle, I don’t need a history lesson. I was being a smart arse. I’ll try to put it in context.

    Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 8:44 pm

    The many Labor partisans who have supported S3 all this time have a bit of egg on their faces.

    If it wasn’t for those who applied pressure for change, the greatest wealth shift to the rich would have gone through.

    ———————————————————————————

    TPOF says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 8:46 pm

    We’ve gone Stalinist absurdity here.

    ——————————————————————————

    Rainman says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:45 pm

    Rex has a point. And it’s hard to argue with it.

    Unless, of course, we go with TPOF’s brilliant ‘Stalinist’ argument.
    ———————————————————————————

    TPOF says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:13 pm

    I don’t get the Stalinist bit, but it seems that Rainman has been blinded by disdain, perhaps hatred, of me and his judgement is totally fucked.

    ———————————————————————————

    Rainman says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:25 pm
    ‘I don’t get the Stalinist bit’

    You do have a habit of forgetting what you said.

    (My last comment is referring to a matter I have stated that I will not refer to again).

  25. FUBAR: “The one good thing that Turnbull did was calling the DD and changing the Senate voting for better (thereby upsetting the crossbenchers who relied on the vote harvesting preference whispering).”

    The JSCEM recommended “abolishing group voting tickets and implementing optional preferential voting” in May 2014 … almost a year and a half before Turnbull became PM.

    So, perversely perhaps, a reform formulated under Abbott’s ‘leadership’. You bet you are! You bet it was!

    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/SenateVotingReform

  26. Rebecca says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:38 pm

    “ the comprehensively Liberal-stacked AAT”

    …because the ALP never stacked it. Apparently.

  27. Bizzcoin,

    Labor has always embraced and supported S&T people regardless of their colour, gender or religion. Who you work for or your sexuality is no problem.

    But, can you tell me what S&T is?

  28. Speaking of the ABC, what a shame the Drum has been replaced by repeats of Backroads and Hard Quiz.
    And Laura Tingle tonight interviewing Eric Bana.
    If the ABC is getting a shakeup, maybe they can start with the news and current affairs division. The standard of their federal politics department leaves a lot to be desired.

    As for the Coalition, I think Andrew Hastie will be leader at the next election.

  29. FUBAR: “That preselection wasn’t the first to be overturned and it won’t be the last – by all parties – but they are the exception to the rule.”

    So, the Liberal party will field the candidate judged best by the preselection committee … except when they don’t?

    Riiiight … got it …

  30. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:44 pm

    “The ABC have suffered from the stochastic terrorism of the Coalition”

    Utter rubbish.

  31. “Utter rubbish.”

    Pure projection for the guy who reads Chevron pressers on tax contributions, doesn’t understand them but still believes them more than most people believe their sacred scripts. There is deeply ignorant and biased, and then in a much worse category is you.

  32. ALP marginal seats in danger in 2025: Tangney, Boothby, Lyons, Aston, Bennelong, Gilmore, Werriwa, Lingiari.
    I know Labor fancy their chances in Leichardt, because Warren Entsch is retiring at the next poll. S

  33. FUBAR, what was the ‘exception to the rule’ that prompted the Liberal party’s faceless men to overturn Towke’s annihilation of Morrison in the Cook preselection vote?

    Was it something Towke said? Or did?

    Or was it something that Towke is?

  34. WeWantPaul says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 11:16 pm

    Coming from someone who’s political outlook represents maybe 5% of voters – jam it.

  35. Just voted for Steven Bradbury in the Guardian’s Australia’s Greatest Sporting Moment Poll. What a legend! It’s down to the final ten. So far he’s coming in fourth. All he needs is for Cathy Freeman, Cortney Vine and John Aloisi to fall over.

    ‘In the 1000m short-track semi-final at the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Games, Steven Bradbury knew he was outclassed in the high-calibre lineup. Trailing behind throughout the race, the veteran was well out of contention – until a late crash allowed him to progress. Then in the final, with an even hotter field led by USA hero Apolo Anton Ohno, another almost unfathomable late fall procured the first winter gold medal for Australia – and “the Bradbury” was born.’

  36. TPOFsays:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:42 pm
    Rainman says:
    The funny thing is that Rex is not real; Rex is a persona created for this blog. I think you are real, which is sad for you.

    ===========================================================================

    Don’t listen to him Rainman it is good to be real. He just has so many avatars he doesn’t know which one is real or fake anymore.

  37. Oliver Sutton says:
    Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 11:16 pm

    That was over 15 years ago and the only ones going public over it are people with an axe to grind against Morrison. Unsubstantiated allegations. Try harder.

    Simple rule in politics – only believe those who tell you they voted against you.

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