Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.0-46.3 lead over Donald Trump (49.2-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday). In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.
In Silver’s model, Harris has a 55% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 54% on Monday. She has been the favourite since last Friday after falling to a 35% win probability on September 9. Previously there had been a large gap between Silver’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models, with Harris favoured more at FiveThirtyEight. But this gap has nearly vanished, with Harris now a 56% win probability at FiveThirtyEight.
Monday’s Conversation article also covered elections for the US House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election. If Harris wins, Democrats have a good chance to regain control of the House, but Republicans are likely to gain Senate control. Democrats are defending seats in three states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020 and the Senate system favours Republicans owing to two senators per state.
Canada looking bleak for Liberals
Two Canadian federal by-elections occurred on September 16. In LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Quebec, 91 candidates stood as a protest against first-past-the-post, with most receiving very few votes. The left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc gained from the centre-left Liberals, winning by 28.0-27.2 with 26.1% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) and 11.6% for the Conservatives. At the 2021 federal election, results in this seat were 42.9% Liberal, 22.1% Quebec Bloc, 19.4% NDP and 7.5% Conservatives.
At the by-election in Elmwood-Transcona in Manitoba, the NDP retained against the Conservatives, but by a much reduced margin. The NDP defeated the Conservatives by 48.1-44.1 with 4.8% for the Liberals. In 2021, the NDP won this seat by 49.7-28.1 with 14.7% for the Liberals.
The next Canadian federal election is due by October 2025. FPTP will be used to elect all 343 seats, with 172 needed for a majority. The CBC poll tracker gives the Conservatives 42.9%, the Liberals 24.1%, the NDP 17.6% and the Quebec Bloc 7.8% (33.5% in Quebec). This would be a Conservative landslide with the seat projection giving them 218 seats, the Liberals 63, the Quebec Bloc 39 and the NDP 21. The Liberals have governed since they won the October 2015 election, though they were reduced to a minority government after the 2019 election.
UK, France, Germany and Sri Lanka
In my previous article in early September, I covered the lack of a honeymoon for UK Labour and PM Keir Starmer after winning the July 4 general election. In an Opinium poll taken last week, Starmer’s net approval had plunged 45 points since the first post-election Opinium poll in mid-July. His net approval is now -26, one point lower than for former Conservative PM Rishi Sunak.
At snap French parliamentary elections in early July, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39. On September 5, Macron appointed the conservative Michel Barnier as his new PM. Last Saturday, Barnier and Macron announced a new cabinet composed of mostly conservative ministers. The NFP is hostile to the new government, so its survival depends on National Rally abstaining on confidence motions.
I previously covered September 1 German state elections in Thuringia and Saxony where the far-right AfD made gains. At last Sunday’s state election in Brandenburg, the centre-left SPD won 32 of the 88 seats (up seven since 2019), the AfD 30 (up seven), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 14 (new) and the conservative CDU 12 (down three). The Greens and Left had won ten seats each in 2019, but were wiped out as neither cleared the 5% threshold.
At last Saturday’s Sri Lankan presidential election, the socialist candidate of the National People’s Power party defeated the establishment candidate by 55.9-44.1 after preferences. The NPP had won just 3.2% in 2019.
Oh c’mon C@t, if Republicans aren’t given the freedom to lie they’ve got nothing.
I watched the debate at work and thought it was boring. Walz was nervous, but polite. Vance was like a robot speaking a million miles an hour, but he too was civil.
The Mooch believes Vance will have a falling out over the next 3 weeks because Vance referred to Trump as his running mate and not the president or Dear Leader or His Holiness (wtte). Further, Vance has overshadowed Trump in his own debate, to the point that it’s as if Vance’s primary purpose of the debate was to try to rehabilitate his image.
He didn’t make it about Trump and that, according to Scaramucci is unforgiveable.
Betfair has Trump now leading after the VP debate..
A fool and their money are easily parted
And the big loser is JD Vance’s ‘running mate’ – Donald
Is it too late to swap Trump out for JD?
Walz’s favourability improved after the debate?
@Sprocket
Only if Trump dies or voluntarily resigns before election day pretty much.
Watching just the clips of Walz speaking without JD Vance – these are being clipped and circulated widely and are much better than how they came out in the debate itself.
Lots of allusions to JD Vance gunning for Trump’s mantle…
https://youtu.be/mjGcb-lrqfQ?si=NLZIGPtq1HHPtmPl
True. It’s really only tragics who tune into these things. Likely most people watching saw the debate was mostly policy driven and moved on to watch something else.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/jd-vance-was-so-good-it-may-drive-trump-crazy-debate
Just did some further scanning on the betting markets since my last post earlier this afternoon, and I’ve noticed that a few more agencies have moved.
So my pre-emptive post at 2.43 pm, where I reported Trump as the slight favourite, was spot on!
It’s currently official as it stands, betting market percentage chances of winning:
Donald 50.5%
Kamala 49.5%
Trump your fav, ever so slightly – WOW
Trump exposed and suspended.
Ven
“Americans are either voting for democracy or dictatorship.
If Americans want democracy, they will vote for Harris-Walz team or Democrats majority HOR and Senate.
If they want dictatorship, they will vote for Trump-Vance team and Republican majority HOR and Senate.”
Yes, obviously. (raises eyebrows and sighs to himself. . .)
Ven
“Unfortunately, what Vance says makes sense to ordinary folks. Vance has calm demeanor. Walz appears to be a little bit agitated although his replies are reasonable and sane. But it is what it is.”
That was pretty much my impression from the little I watched of it. Walz very worried look, bit agitated/nervous. Never smiles.
Vance calm, direct and clear without conveying the arrogance I expected him to not be able to help.
citizen says Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 7:56 pm
While I can well imagine Trump getting upset (I would too if it was my likeness), I’m not sure what “panicked rage” is?
I’m starting to believe some of the anti-Trump, pro Democrat channels on YouTube are not much more reliable than Fox News. While I’m sure they don’t outright lie like Fox, the amount of spin would dry a basket of wet clothes in seconds. I think it’s one reason I prefer The Daily Show. You end up amused and better informed.
I rarely side with Trump on anything but I get the feeling if someone made an unflattering nude effigy of Kamala Harris, the outrage would be palpable and her objections – no matter how animated – wouldn’t be categorised as a tantrum.
Wat Tyler says Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 8:38 pm
It might well be on Fox News. But I agree with what you are saying.
C@tmomma
“The best and most lasting line from the VP debate was when Tim Walz said to JD Vance, “That was a damning non-answer”. ”
It was a good line, but he should have taken it further and railed about what “we can all see and hear is the threat to our democracy again” etc. etc. – clearly their strongest reason for winning anyway and he had a golden opportunity that I’d say he only 1/2 took. 1/2 took because that line you quote was a zinger, granted; but only 1/2 because he could have nailed concern into all the MSM front pages and viewer consciousness with a louder, longer, stronger response.
You’d have to say that this debate went a long way to ‘normalising’ JDV, articulating Trump’s positions and that Trump is one small step closer to the Presidency.
The odds are stacked against Harris, which is not her fault. This means her side need to seize every significant opportunity for a viral moment.
C@tmomma
Ironic that I now need to fact check you.
““Margaret,” he said to moderator Margaret Brennan of CBS News, “the rules were that you guys weren’t going to fact check!””
No he didn’t, that was one of the bits I watched. He started his response with “if you’re going to fact check me. . . ” No mention of any rules or anything.
I was there a while ago. Brian Tyler Cohen, Medeis Touch (or whatever) and sundry others might have started out trying to bring balance to the MSM, but it’s getting beyond ridiculous on some fronts.
BTSays @ #471 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024 – 8:47 pm
He did indeed say that and here’s the video of it.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=558581763176584
Bellwether @ #451 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024 – 5:13 pm
Ditto the Coalition, Bellweather.
Wat Tyler @ #467 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024 – 8:38 pm
To tell you the truth, going on Stormy Daniels’ evidence, the mega marionette constructers have been generous to Trump. 😉
Centre @ #462 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024 – 6:54 pm
As someone commented earlier, you can also say that betting money is panic money.
Wat Tyler @ #467 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024 – 8:38 pm
Perhaps that’s because Kamala Harris isn’t a pathological liar or convicted felon, and hasn’t had the courts determine that she sexually assaulted anyone. To name a few of many points of difference.
The false-equivalence you’re trying to establish is egregiously wrong. Nobody made a nude effigy of Trump simply because he exists as the Republican nominee for President. They would have done it because his actions have shown him, time and time again, to be a shitty human being, well deserving of scorn and ridicule. Start with the nude effigies, end with iron bars.
a r @ #476 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024 – 9:24 pm
Well said.
The Senate race:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zyPq8MACDs
Trump walked out of a “60 Minutes” interview in 2020 and has chickened out of another interview thereby breaking a 50-year tradition:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwCWcrjrsP8&t=573s
Will the real JD Shady please stand up, please stand up, please stand up?
On earth 2 Walz would have had a lot of fun pricking that balloon. Feel sorry that they hand cuffed him too much.
On earth 1 he did ok against a seasoned debater. They just need to swing him through Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania through football games for the next 5 weeks. He’ll love it and he’ll hopefully swing a few (enough) votes along the way.
Forget the sun belt seats. Let Kamala do those during the week then meet Tim for footy on Friday (school), Saturday (college) Sunday (NFL – Lions, Green Bay, Steelers) and Church and let him get amongst the ordinary punters and on local t.v and radio. Win the Blue wall states.
Get Walz to fashion a new line about JD Shady to back up his great finish last night. A line that ties in his every day ordinary appeal comparing the people he’s met along the way that only have their own ambition front of mind. I’m sure he’s met plenty of those along the way.
With a net satisfaction level of 37% following the VP debate, America seemed impressed with Walz’s performance – as was I. And although Vance told several porkies, he lifted his likeability too but is still in negative territory at minus 3.
The big money for Trump came in when Iran attacked Israel, but there has been a bit more since the debate.
I should clarify I’m talking about odds in betting markets.
New thread.