Federal polls: Morgan, DemosAU Victorian results, and more (open thread)

Another strong result for Labor from Roy Morgan, another finding of 51-49 to federal Labor in Victoria, plus seat polling for Brisbane and various teal targets.

Notwithstanding yesterday’s suggestion of a pre-budget lull, poll news continues to come in at an exhausting clip:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll maintains the series’ recently acquired form of remarkably favourable polling for Labor, who lead 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences (in from last week’s 54.5-45.5 blowout) and 54-46 on previous election preference flows (in from 54.5-45.5). The primary votes are Labor 33.5% (up one), Coalition 35.5% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 12.5% (down one) and One Nation 4% (down one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1683.

• DemosAU has a poll on both federal and state voting election from Victoria, the latter of which I’ll cover when I do a post on a Resolve Strategic poll result I’m expecting next week. In common with both the Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy breakdowns, the federal result shows Labor leading 51-49, in from 54.8-45.2 at the 2022 election. The primary votes are Labor 29%, Coalition 34%, Greens 15% and One Nation 8%, compared with respective results of 32.9%, 33.1%, 13.7% and 3.8% in 2022. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1006.

• The Courier-Mail reports a uComms poll of the seat of Brisbane by Liberals Against Nuclear has Trevor Evans of the LNP on 31.2%, Greens incumbent Stephen Bates on 24.2% and Labor candidate Madonna Jarrett on 23.2%, with some of the remainder likely allocated as undecided. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1184. Another privately conducted poll of the seat published last week had the LNP at 36.4%, Labor on 29.5% and the Greens on 18.1%. Neither is encouraging for the LNP, with the Greens competitive on the first set of numbers but not the second.

• An article by Mike Seccombe in The Saturday Paper sketchily relates encouraging polling for teal independents by Climate 200, putting Nicolette Boele ahead of the Liberals 52-48 in the Sydney seat of Bradfield; Caz Heise 53-47 ahead over Nationals incumbent Pat Conaghan in the Mid North Coast New South Wales seat of Cowper, where Conaghan won 52.3-47.7 on Heise’s first attempt in 2022; and the Liberals leading only by 51-49 in both the South West Western Australian seat of Forrest and the Mornington Peninsula seat of Flinders, which are respectively being contested by Sue Chapman and Ben Smith. We are further told that the polls have the Nationals on 39% of the primary vote in Lyne, and the LNP on 43% and 42% in the seats of Fisher on the Sunshine Coast and McPherson on the Gold Coast. Respective sample sizes of 980, 867 and 1047 are provided for the Cowper, Lyne and Bradfield polls, with the latter conducted on February 3.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,533 comments on “Federal polls: Morgan, DemosAU Victorian results, and more (open thread)”

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  2. “The only voters who will keep voting for Labor are the unemployed and the long-term poor (who mostly stay that way due to laziness!)! Labor are the party of leeches and sloths. Only the Liberal-National Coalition reward hard work, industry, aspiration and advancement.”

    @ScromoII

    I don’t agree with this. Liberals only side with the rich even if they are rich leeches exploiting the system. This is demonstrated with the 40 billion that was paid out to businesses for job keeper with no mechanism to get that money back. Is a perfect example where there is one set of rules for the unemployed and another set of rules for the big end of town.

    If you are rich and the big end of town. It doesn’t matter what you do or your ethics the Liberal party welcomes you.

  4. Political Nightwatchman @ #2503 Friday, March 28th, 2025 – 11:11 pm

    “The only voters who will keep voting for Labor are the unemployed and the long-term poor (who mostly stay that way due to laziness!)! Labor are the party of leeches and sloths. Only the Liberal-National Coalition reward hard work, industry, aspiration and advancement.”

    @ScromoII

    I don’t agree with this. Liberals only side with the rich even if they are rich leeches exploiting the system. This is demonstrated with the 40 billion that was paid out to businesses for job keeper with no mechanism to get that money back. Is a perfect example where there is one set of rules for the unemployed and another set of rules for the big of town.

    If you are rich and the big end of town. It doesn’t matter what you do or your ethics the Liberal party welcomes you.

    Agreed with this. Isn’t it just amazing how the beneficiaries of Morrison-Frydenburg’s “Let them eat whatever they want” Jobkeeper plan got everything they wanted plus more and got away with it, but the very idea of the 99% of the country that earned less than those people getting the same treatment is an instant “MILLION YEARS DUNGEON!!!” cry from the reactionary pricks that hate everyone they think is lesser than them?

  5. sprocket at 7.31 pm, Bludgeoned Westin at 7.40 pm and Steve777 at 7.42 pm

    Mr M. Mackerras has used out of date polling (about 1.5% for Labor below what Dr Bonham currently has for them, excluding his bonus Hanson preference to the LNP).

    Consequently, assuming the recent polling shift to Labor continues or is not reversed, 71 for Labor is a floor below which they are unlikely to fall.

    Mr Mackerras has a problem counting Teals, saying all 6 will retain. That excludes Ms Chaney in Curtin (he has no comment), and also Helen Haines.

    Mr Mackerras leans Lib himself and tends to get surprised when they lose one of theirs against his odds. He lives in Canberra, nowhere near Bradfield.

    He does have historical knowledge about elections, e.g. he would know that Labor have never lost Lingiari.

  6. Scott Morrison was elected Prime Minister despite the Liberals + Liberals (Queensland Version) having one less seat than Labor.

    Needing the Nationals to form government is legitimate, but Labor with a massive seat tally and a handful of crossbenchers offering support & supply would be illegitimate. Who knew!

    And now everyone who votes Labor over LNP are the dregs of society. All 7 million of us!

    Rattled. Absolutely rattled.

  7. I have a lot of respect for Malcolm Mackerras and I hope that his Pendulum diagram will be of much use to other countries as it has been for Australia in the years to come, hopefully when they adopt Preferential Voting (looking at you, Canada and the UK).

  8. Kirsdarke says:
    Friday, March 28, 2025 at 11:22 pm

    Remind me – what happened to Jobseeker payments during the Pandemic?

  9. Good to see the media organisations that are ignoring the protests against Hamas in Gaza. Can’t depart from the narrative against Israel.

  10. As much as Preferential Voting is getting more attention in the USA, I don’t think they’re going to get far the way they are. The only states that have such a thing are Maine and Alaska, and Alaska are pretty much 1% away from eliminating it. That plus it failed to become a thing in Oregon.

  11. “Socialism draws towards it with magnetic force every fruit-juice drinker, nudist, sandal-wearer, sex-maniac, Quaker, ‘Nature Cure’ quack, pacifist and feminist in England.”

    George Orwell

    Applies equally in Australia.

  12. ScromoIIsays:
    Friday, March 28, 2025 at 10:55 pm
    The big takeaway from the Redbridge poll is that those who have little or no financial stress are still vote very strongly with the Coalition, despite there being a negative correlation between level of education and the Coalition vote.

    This means that while people who are “battlers” are switching to the Coalition, those who are well off are not going the other way. The only voters who will keep voting for Labor are the unemployed and the long-term poor (who mostly stay that way due to laziness!)! Labor are the party of leeches and sloths. Only the Liberal-National Coalition reward hard work, industry, aspiration and advancement

    ————-
    Albo hasn’t done much for the unemployment and long term poor sure labor fans will say labor spent money on health education and the ndis labor made no effort to up welfare payments above cpi and wussed it on disability reform so if Dutton wanted to hurt labor match dsp and aged pension to the minimum wage.

  17. FUBARsays:
    Friday, March 28, 2025 at 11:58 pm
    “Socialism draws towards it with magnetic force every fruit-juice drinker, nudist, sandal-wearer, sex-maniac, Quaker, ‘Nature Cure’ quack, pacifist and feminist in England.”

    George Orwell
    _________________
    Orwell was himself a socialist, so what he is referring to here are dilettantes who have attached themselves to socialism.

  18. Lars on Friday at 7.23 am and 12.11 pm, Diogenes at 2 pm

    Labor 74, LNP 60, cross-bench 16

    Combined primary 68.5%

    Labor 32.3%, LNP 36.2%

    So close to a record low combined primary but just above 2022 figure.

    Note that Dr Bonham says that the odds-on favourite Hung Parliament is no certainty given polling trends. He also points out that NSW currently has a hung parliament in the minor key (when one major party clearly won and instability is not a concern).

    Diogenes if Labor get 74 seats or very close to that the cross-bench would have to caucus with unprecedented conformity to cause major problems.

    Some former Labor ministers might consider a result like 74 seats to be better than a Labor majority because the next Labor government would then be expected to be consistently more accountable, e.g. regarding its total stinginess for the unemployed.

  19. Lars on Friday at 7.23 am and 12.11 pm, Diogenes at 2 pm

    My current expectation is:

    Labor 74, LNP 60, cross-bench 16

    Combined primary 68.5%

    Labor 32.3%, LNP 36.2%

    So close to a record low combined primary but just above 2022 figure.

    Note that Dr Bonham says that the odds-on favourite Hung Parliament is no certainty given polling trends. He also points out that NSW currently has a hung parliament in the minor key (when one major party clearly won and instability is not a concern).

    Diogenes if Labor get 74 seats or very close to that, the cross-bench would have to caucus with unprecedented conformity to cause major problems.

    Some former Labor ministers might consider a result like 74 seats to be better than a Labor majority, because the next Labor government would then be expected to be consistently more accountable, e.g. regarding its total stinginess for the unemployed.

  20. What happened to Jobseeker payments during the pandemic?
    They went up. Why?
    Because after years of putting down on the unemployed & implying they deserved bugger all Morrison was suddenly faced with a couple of million new ones, who’d just voted for him. Can’t have fine folk like that having to get by on the pittance being paid to the undeserving.

  22. Still not sensing any momentum for change. To the contrary, the sentiment is for more and more and more of the same. Labor will win comfortably. The Teals will hold all and maybe bag a couple more, as (sadly) will the Greens. The Reactionaries will lose seats. I’m hoping they will lose 20 0r so, but that would be 2 good 2 be true.

  26. Kirsdarkesays:
    Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 1:13 am
    Friday night music videos? Yeah, I’m down with that.

    Here’s a comfort video sort of thing that I enjoy. And I thoroughly recommend the rest of her works.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihDSJJnY14g
    _________________________
    Yeah, not really my speed.

    But this is:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0cdbR5ognY

    I mean, fuck, I like pills, I like drugs
    I like gettin’ money, I like strippers, I like to fuck
    I like day-drinkin’ and day parties and Hollywood
    I like doin’ Hollywood shit, snort it? Probably would (yeah)
    What can I say? The shit works, it feels good
    And my self-worth’s at an all-time low

    🙂

  32. L’twit:

    “ His Bradbury moment was being up against scomo. You only get a Bradbury moment once .”

    Dandy:

    “Really? Because Bradbury qualified for the final where he won gold after a crash in the semifinal. So Bradbury himself had two Bradbury moments.”

    _____

    Before his moment, Bradbury was already a world champion and an olympic medalist. He was a veteran of the sport who had suffered a horrific run of injuries (his head was in an halo following a broken neck only 18 months before the games) and it was a miracle that he even made the team (his fourth Olympic Games). While he’d lost a lot of his speed – on account of he age and injuries – he’d lost none of his race craft & he knew he’d not be able to match it with the favourites over four races in the same night of competition. he also knew the history of the sport – having himself been crashed out of the event in the two previous games when he was a favourite to win – holding back was always a 50/50 chance of winning a medal in a four person field as the chances of last lap crashes are high.

    from wiki:

    “In an interview after winning his gold, referring to his two career- and life-threatening accidents,[22] Bradbury said: “Obviously I wasn’t the fastest skater. I don’t think I’ll take the medal as the minute-and-a-half of the race I actually won. I’ll take it as the last decade of the hard slog I put in.” He also said, “I was the oldest bloke in the field and I knew that, skating four races back to back, I wasn’t going to have any petrol left in the tank. So there was no point in getting there and mixing it up because I was going to be in last place anyway. So [I figured] I might as well stay out of the way and be in last place and hope that some people get tangled up.”

    So …. If one wants to draw a parallel with sport and this election I reckon that having to face Morrison and then Dud Dutton in successive elections gives a wiley veteran like ‘Bradbury’ Albo a pretty decent chance of back to back golds.

  33. Pageboi @ 4.15pm
    Thanks for your common sense and factual rebuttal of the minority government / snap election thought bubbles.
    Although the circumstances could be greatly different to the RGR regimes, the larger number of cross bench members of the parliament create a different scenario.
    Those, most at risk at losing their seats would be any Independent / Cross bench member who particiapted in the downfall of the elected government.
    I would envisage that if a vote of confidence was lost, due to the vote, of the cross bench then the community anger at having to go to another election would be directed towards them and a re-alignment towards the two major parties, both of whom would strongly feature a “Vote for Stability” focus to their respective campaigns.
    The public would only support a vote of no confidence in the situation where the governing party was involved in a major and substantial scandal or act of corruption.
    We Australians embrace our democracy but don’t want to embrace unnecessary elections.

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