The Financial Review has the first Victorian state poll since last week’s leadership change, courtesy of RedBridge/Accent Research. The results are not encouraging for Labor, who are down three on the same pollster’s result a month ago to 23%. The Coalition is up four on a soft primary vote result last month to 30%, but One Nation is down five to 22% while the Greens gain one to 14%. Labor trails the Coalition 57-43 on two-party preferred; the Financial Review’s graphic confusingly has One Nation with a 54-43 lead over the Coalition. Ben Carroll records a minus 15% on net favourability, though 57% said they had no strong impression of him. Jess Wilson is unchanged at plus 13% net favourability. Nineteen per cent said the leadership change made them more likely to vote Labor compared with 14% for less likely and 56% for no difference. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1014.
UPDATE: I missed another poll out overnight, from Freshwater Strategy in the Herald Sun, although its field work period of July 21 to August 3 began well before the leadership change on July 28. It has the Coalition at 30%, up three on the last such poll in June; Labor at 25%, up two; One Nation at 22%, down three; and the Greens steady at 14%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is in from 53-47 to 52-48. Ben Carroll records 21% favourable, 31% neutral and 29% unfavourable; Jess Wilson 39% favourable, 25% neutral and 21% unfavourable. The sample for the poll was 1020.
Further Victorian election news:
• The government’s legislation to abolish group voting tickets is now before the upper house, having been introduced to the lower house on the same day Jacinta Allan was deposed and passed the following day. Reflecting the practice for the Senate, above-the-line voters will be directed to fill a number of boxes above the line equal to the number of vacancies (so five rather than six for the Senate), though a savings provision will in fact mean that a single number one will suffice for a formal vote. Since the legislation leaves intact the state’s eight five-member regions with their quota for election of 16.7% (abolishing them would require a referendum), Labor, the Coalition, One Nation and the Greens seem likely to dominate.
• One Nation finally announced a slate of eight candidates yesterday, and designated state party president Warren Pickering as its prospective parliamentary leader, and candidate for the lower house seat of Pakenham. The others named were lead upper house candidates: high-profile Liberal Party defector Colleen Harkin in South-Eastern Metropolitan; Mark Nicholson, the animator behind the party’s cartoon web series and Super Progressive Movie feature, in Northern Metropolitan; Chris Burson, Geelong councillor and former police officer and Angry Victorians candidate, in Western Victoria; criminal lawyer Aaron Sandford in Southern Metropolitan; Fiona Lopez in Western Metropolitan; Natalie Adams in Eastern Metropolitan; and the party’s sole incumbent, Rikki-Lee Tyrrell, who will seek re-election in Northern Victoria.
• As well as Jacinta Allan announcing she will not contest the next election, creating a vacancy in her seat of Bendigo East (margin 10.8%), two further senior ministers announced their impending retirements in the wake of last week’s leadership change: Climate Change Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, who holds Mill Park on a margin of 11.6%; and Health Minister Harriet Shing, who was second on Labor’s Eastern Victoria upper house ticket in 2022.
• Kim O’Keeffe announced last fortnight she will not recontest Shepparton, which she gained for the Nationals from independent Suzanna Sheed in 2022. Chip Le Grand of The Age reports Steve Threlfall, a Shepparton councillor and shooting and sports store owner, has confirmed he is seeking One Nation preselection, and there are suggestions the mayor, Shane Sali, could ran for One Nation or either of the Coalition parties.
• Will Fowles, who became Labor’s member for Ringwood in 2022 and resigned from the parliamentary party in August 2023, has announced he will not stand at the election.
With respect to swings, it, dare I say it, it swings both ways. There will be massive swings all over the place, but more so in very safe conservative electorates. The regions, who have been most duped by the ON and LNP scams will build up even more massive bulwarks against the non-marauding hordes.
Swings in the wrong place are no good for the conservatives. The use of ‘uniform swing’ is just a tool. There has never been and never will be a uniform swing. What there is, is averages, and they can be a useful tool.
I still think the polls will narrow dramatically once the election is in full swing. I expect many pundits to be screeching about how the punters in Victoria keep getting it wrong.
When push comes to shove the vast majority of Victorians will not embrace the facists.
Mabwm
Hope you are right.
Wherever they are, swings to ON and what remains of the Coalition, are good for the prospect that put together, the 3 parties will have a lock on the Senate.
Swings may also enhance anti-Labor/Green/Teal State upper house membership.
Of course, it will better if the anti-Labor/ etc parties form government.
Victoria @ #196 Friday, August 7th, 2026 – 9:07 pm
The very same recycling is going on in the Apple isle.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-08/liberals-select-senate-replacements-for-tasmanians-duniam-askew/107012632
@Rafiki –
For whom will it be best if the anti-Labor / etc parties form government?
Not me. Not you. Not anybody.
It will be complete and utter chaos.
On the bright side, if the triumvirate of idiocy, the bastions of selfishness, the collective of morons do stumble across the line, they will at best be a one term government. I predict no less than 5 Premiers in 4 years. (We’ve already had two and may well get a third In 2026.)
Further the Teals are liberals, not members of that failed party, but liberals nonetheless.
Now you have a great day.
Rafiki @ #203 Saturday, August 8th, 2026 – 2:04 pm
Surely You can’t be serious.
OK, there 3 ON policies that attract me to support them.
1 – cutting immigration levels will very quickly put downward pressure on demand for houses, and make rentals less expensive. (Of course, a broader front of attack is necessary.)
2. – abandonment of the disastrous ‘green’ energy policies will reduce energy costs, assisting to restore the manufacturing sector.
3. – ending woke policies will, inter alia, improve our education system. A cultural shift is as important as the economic shifts.
As for the Teals, in practice they align with the Labor/Greens coalition. How they will behave in future is unclear. I suspect the Liberals will formally split, and the ‘moderates’ will align, if not create a new party, with the Teals. They will then offer their support to the Labor/Greens to form government.
I hope not.
Rafiki
The Teals only align with the Greens on the environment, they don’t all aligned on other social issues, Monique Ryan has voted against the Greens and Labor on some social issues.
Teals and moderate Liberal merger is a possibility but it’s centre right and would see itself as in opposition to the Labor Party.
@Rafiki –
Be careful of those space lasers, mate!
Now I know you are just trolling, no-one is actually that vapid.
“2. – abandonment of the disastrous ‘green’ energy policies will reduce energy costs, assisting to restore the manufacturing sector.”
So how many trillions of dollars do you want taxpayers to go into debt for to buy new coal plants, coal mines and nuclear reactors that will take 25 years to build?
Because Gina isn’t going to pay for them, I can tell you that.
Teals, supported by Climate to support a party that will end effective climate action, reverse progress to date where possible, regards the environment is somewhere to log, mine or develop, with Trumpian policies in other areas? I don’t think so.
Daniel: obviously uniform swings don’t happen, but it’s a good approximation – that’s about the point Labor lose their majority. For every seat below 7% they hold (Niddrie) there’ll probably be one above 7% they lose (South Barwon), but they average out so the numbers would be pretty similar.
Also, vanilla 2pp (ie: pretending the Greens and One Nation don’t exist or can be subbed out for Labor and Lib/Nat) is clearly deficient with a growing crossbench, but it’s a rough guide to which bloc forms government. Basically assuming most seats Labor lose to One Nation are ones they would’ve lost to the Libs or Nats anyway (eg: Ripon, Macedon, Bass). There might be a few truly 2pp-safe Labor seats (ie: held through the Kennett years) where One Nation are a threat, but I can’t think of many. Ironically one of them is Morwell and the Nats won that back in 2006 – the electoral realignment that happened in northern Adelaide this year happened in the Latrobe valley a while ago. Maybe Lara?
Steve777
The Teals are more aligned to moderate Liberals than to the Labor Party, a new Liberal Party made up of Teals and moderate Liberals would position itself against the Labor Party and against ON conservatives.
Mr Landlord at 4.49
Here in NSW, where ICAC is doing its thing, the deep personal hatreds within the Liberals between the Moderates and the Centre Right are now very public. There’s a basis for a split. What may prompt it is the threat ON poses for some Liberals, who may rate their chances better if they run as a candidate for another party with another name. Malcolm Turnbull might be a patron, and might, in one way or another, provide funding. If the new party’s policies align with the Teals, Climate 200 money might be there. (I think there are too reasons why Teal ‘independents’ are better off in a party.)
My guess is the new party would aim to be in a position to determine which of Labor/Greens, versus ON/Liberals (or just ON), would form a government after the next federal election. I just can’t see them supporting ON, in part at least because of different energy policies.
OK, enough from me. I know I’m shooting the breeze, but exchanging ideas is good.
Rafiki
There are grounds for a split but moderate Liberals are still living the dream of a broad church.
Mr Landlord, note that it was a moderate Liberal who, under privilege and very publicly in Parliament, attacked the right aligned Catholic Reform group. This lead to branch stacking and dubious financial deeds being made publicly known in the Legislative Council inquiry, and now being minutely examined and televised in ICAC. Both Abbott and Taylor are named as backing the Reformers. The Liberals have been quietly imploding. Now it’s the moderates who have lit a fuse that will, in the public eye, explode the Liberals.
You’re a good sport, Rafiki. I will give you that.
If you’re referring to Ray Williams, he has always been part of the right — specifically the centre-right associated with Alex Hawke, which split acrimoniously from the “hard right” in 2009. This report identifies him as such:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-24/ray-williams-warned-gladys-berejiklian-about-looming-scandal/106910478?utm_source=chatgpt.com
While the internal politics of the NSW Liberal Party are more complex than anyone not directly involved can be expected to get their head around, there has been something of an alliance in recent years between the moderates and the hard-right — observe the good relationship between Matt Kean of the former and Dominic Perrottet of the latter. It was because of this alliance that Alex Hawke gummed up the works of the preselection process ahead of the 2022 election, which was threatening a number of centre-right members, including Sussan Ley (and himself).
Thank you William. Yes, I don’t know much about these intricacies. I’m reacting to the fact that it was a Liberal ( who otherwise should have kept the matter internal) who caused this ICAC process, which, while somewhat interesting to a lawyer, seems very destructive to all of the factions.
MORGAN SMS Poll:
“In early August the L-NP Coalition 26% (up 2% since April) and ALP 26% (up 0.5%) are level on primary vote ahead of One Nation 23.5% (down 1%) and 24.5% (down 1.5%) support Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 12.5% (down 1%), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8% (down 0.5%) according to a special SMS Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.
Importantly, the L-NP Coalition is now narrowly ahead of the ALP Government on a two-party preferred basis: L-NP 51% (up 2% from April) cf. ALP 49% (down 2%).”
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10303-victorian-state-voting-intention-august-2026
Hung parliament territory.
Approval of Carroll 51% Disapproval 43%
Wilson Approval 58.5% Disapproval 38.5%
And Surprisingly Warren Picker Approval 35% Disapproval 58.5%…. might have been a bad choice
YouGov Vic state poll, via the Age
Sample: 4000
Date: Report only specifies it was taken just before the leadership spill, so it’s dated somewhat
* ALP 23
* LNP 26
* ON 24
* GRN 13
* Oth/Ind 14
Their 2PP – LNP 53.8
Link: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/new-premier-battles-to-keep-seat-as-liberal-treaty-pledge-falls-flat-20260806-p60m2s.html
Thanks Nadia
I guess there isn’t much point wasting a poll after it’s taken, especially one that size, but it feels kind of irrelevant now that there’s been a change of Premier
Although, if nothing else, it provides a baseline and highlights how much work Labor has to do
Just Labor!
Thanks, Nadia!
Interestingly it’s reported as an MRP with seats as below, with 33 seats projected to change hands:
– L/NP 39 seats
– ALP 29 seats
– ONP 17 seats
– GRN 3 seats
The Age reports “Premier Ben Carroll could be on track to lose his seat”, which is misleading given the poll was “conducted shortly before” the leadership change (i.e. when he was deputy premier!).
Any polls taken at around time of leadership change are not useful.
We will have a much clearer picture in a month’s time.
As the saying goes, a week is a long time in politics.
Methinks the gloating is premature.
Dutton was ahead 55/45 at this stage too. Just saying.
Measuring the curtains never goes down well.
It is not unrealistic that Labor can win again, albeit in minority govt.
I guess, We shall have to wait and see
Mabwm
Yep.
No Favour @ #224 Sunday, August 9th, 2026 – 9:54 am
It’s The Age,expect nothing less I guess.
Niddrie is on 6.7% so it’s definitely a seat Labor would have on their at risk seats and the Liberal Party fancy their chances.
There are bigger iffy predictions in this poll, Labor picking up Melbourne and Prahran seem to be based on demographic assumptions but ignore the electoral mood.
I think any outcome ranging from a small Labor majority to a large Coalition majority is possible. Small movements in primary votes can result in large movements in seats. The upcoming Victorian Resolve should be interesting.
From the AFR:
“Both the major parties now believe Carroll will improve Labor’s primary vote by at least 1 to 3 percentage points by polling day – which could be the difference between a respectable loss and a wipeout.”
Three sad blisters.
https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/29b85bcdf40e246c02809b3847e29df0?impolicy=wcms_crop_resize&cropH=1080&cropW=1620&xPos=115&yPos=0&width=862&height=575
And yet the drugs are out of control across the state and the Libs pick 7 in the Lotto.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-09/opposition-election-pledge-pso-deployed-melbourne-hospitals/107013890
A $200 billion debt tsunami? Will the Vic Libs also roll out their favourite, the debt truck? Presumably they could get the brothel owner to rent them his now redundant “ditch the witch” truck.
Or recommission their 2019 debt truck.
The pre-election “Labor leader to lose his seat” are like clockwork. If it’s reasonably close 2PP with the LNP the media will fake or misrepresent polls to create the headline. If it’s a completely safe seat they’ll rope in some attention whore “independent” (who is usually a failed ex-LNP member angry about being passed over in a previous election) who fakes their own polls.
How’s Secret harbour going Labor?
https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/secret-harbour-by-election-labor-candidate-georgia-tree-claims-her-party-has-skeletons-in-the-closet–c-22697896
New thread.