The Financial Review has the first Victorian state poll since last week’s leadership change, courtesy of RedBridge/Accent Research. The results are not encouraging for Labor, who are down three on the same pollster’s result a month ago to 23%. The Coalition is up four on a soft primary vote result last month to 30%, but One Nation is down five to 22% while the Greens gain one to 14%. Labor trails the Coalition 57-43 on two-party preferred; the Financial Review’s graphic confusingly has One Nation with a 54-43 lead over the Coalition. Ben Carroll records a minus 15% on net favourability, though 57% said they had no strong impression of him. Jess Wilson is unchanged at plus 13% net favourability. Nineteen per cent said the leadership change made them more likely to vote Labor compared with 14% for less likely and 56% for no difference. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1014.
UPDATE: I missed another poll out overnight, from Freshwater Strategy in the Herald Sun, although its field work period of July 21 to August 3 began well before the leadership change on July 28. It has the Coalition at 30%, up three on the last such poll in June; Labor at 25%, up two; One Nation at 22%, down three; and the Greens steady at 14%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is in from 53-47 to 52-48. Ben Carroll records 21% favourable, 31% neutral and 29% unfavourable; Jess Wilson 39% favourable, 25% neutral and 21% unfavourable. The sample for the poll was 1020.
Further Victorian election news:
• The government’s legislation to abolish group voting tickets is now before the upper house, having been introduced to the lower house on the same day Jacinta Allan was deposed and passed the following day. Reflecting the practice for the Senate, above-the-line voters will be directed to fill a number of boxes above the line equal to the number of vacancies (so five rather than six for the Senate), though a savings provision will in fact mean that a single number one will suffice for a formal vote. Since the legislation leaves intact the state’s eight five-member regions with their quota for election of 16.7% (abolishing them would require a referendum), Labor, the Coalition, One Nation and the Greens seem likely to dominate.
• One Nation finally announced a slate of eight candidates yesterday, and designated state party president Warren Pickering as its prospective parliamentary leader, and candidate for the lower house seat of Pakenham. The others named were lead upper house candidates: high-profile Liberal Party defector Colleen Harkin in South-Eastern Metropolitan; Mark Nicholson, the animator behind the party’s cartoon web series and Super Progressive Movie feature, in Northern Metropolitan; Chris Burson, Geelong councillor and former police officer and Angry Victorians candidate, in Western Victoria; criminal lawyer Aaron Sandford in Southern Metropolitan; Fiona Lopez in Western Metropolitan; Natalie Adams in Eastern Metropolitan; and the party’s sole incumbent, Rikki-Lee Tyrrell, who will seek re-election in Northern Victoria.
• As well as Jacinta Allan announcing she will not contest the next election, creating a vacancy in her seat of Bendigo East (margin 10.8%), two further senior ministers announced their impending retirements in the wake of last week’s leadership change: Climate Change Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, who holds Mill Park on a margin of 11.6%; and Health Minister Harriet Shing, who was second on Labor’s Eastern Victoria upper house ticket in 2022.
• Kim O’Keeffe announced last fortnight she will not recontest Shepparton, which she gained for the Nationals from independent Suzanna Sheed in 2022. Chip Le Grand of The Age reports Steve Threlfall, a Shepparton councillor and shooting and sports store owner, has confirmed he is seeking One Nation preselection, and there are suggestions the mayor, Shane Sali, could ran for One Nation or either of the Coalition parties.
• Will Fowles, who became Labor’s member for Ringwood in 2022 and resigned from the parliamentary party in August 2023, has announced he will not stand at the election.
Operation Richmond finally being released tomorrow.
Fair enough Trent, plus Labor tends to run a very efficient campaign once an election is called, and they should claw back a few % points during the campaign proper. Not too sure if Gartrell is being brought in to manage this election campaign.
Wilson is also untested, in that she is a first term MP with no Ministerial experience, whereas Carroll has the Ministerial experience.
BT (today 4-Aug) has the primaries as follows…
* LNP 30%
* ALP 25.7%
* ON 19.8%
* GRN 13.3%
* Oth/Ind 11.2%
I suppose we’ll see what these figures look like late August or so.
Taylormade
Peter Marshall head of firies union failed in their quest to suppress report being released.
———-
The Investigation: IBAC’s Operation Richmond examined 2016 industrial disputes and reforms involving the former state government, the Country Fire Authority (CFA), and the UFU.Suppression Bid: The UFU and Peter Marshall filed injunctions and pseudonym applications to keep both their identities and the corruption report from being made public.The Outcome: The courts dismissed the union’s attempts to maintain anonymity and block the watchdog, paving the way for the report’s eventual release.
All this “Jess Wilson has no ministerial experience” is just a load of rubbish. If one party has been in power for a long time then it is very likely that the incoming leader will have had no ministerial experience – Gough Whitlam in 1972, John Cain in 1982, Wayne Goss in 1989, Barry O’Farrell in 2011, Chris Minns, and the list goes on. Are you suggesting that a 36 year old woman is not up to the job? It sounds that way.
Are you suggesting that a 36 year old woman is not up to the job? It sounds that way…
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Not at all. She’s actually done quite a job uniting her party, after the last 12 years of bitter infighting.
She’s handled the Deeming issue well too. ie: get out of my party!
More just a reminder that the ALP generally runs a solid campaign in the lead up.
Yeah, unlike in 2010, there’s no false sense of security in Victorian Labor in the leadup to November.
They know they’re behind and they’re going to campaign as hard as hell. They didn’t decide to reject Jacinta Allan as leader easily, many of them remember how miserable it was in opposition from 2010-2014 and they don’t want to go back to those days.
Kirsdarke
Unfortunately,the liberal party here in Victoria are still quite dysfunctional. They hate each other and the cray cray religious nut bags won’t go away.
Labor has pretty much run the state this past 27 years.
The 4 year Baillieu gov’t was pathetic and you’d struggle to list any major achievements, apart from turfing out Baillieu half way through that term.
nadia,
Sorry to be pedantic, but the upper house quota of 16.67 percent isn’t new. What’s changing (assuming Labor doesn’t change its mind at the last second) is that micro-parties won’t be able to reach that quota by preference harvesting.
So anyone who got less than about seven or eight percent last time has no chance this time if voters have to actually fill in their own preferences.
Bludgertrack doesn’t have freshwater yet though.
nadia @ #56 Tuesday, August 4th, 2026 – 12:47 pm
The Libs couldnt even get the reopening of a railway together,because it was a secret 😉
In 2016
SECRET plans to re-establish a passenger rail service between Drysdale, Leopold and Geelong were examined by the Napthine Government prior to the 2014 election, the Geelong Advertiser can reveal.
State Transport Minister Jacinta Allan has released details about the 2014 report which examined ditching the rail trail and in order to partially restore the Bellarine rail line, which was closed in 1976.
Bellarine MP Lisa Neville requested the information be made public and said the investigation was conducted “without any form of consultation from the local communities affected, especially the residents of Drysdale and Leopold”.
She said the rail rejuvenation would be expensive although the government has not publicly released the costs due to “commercial reasons”.
I think the other reason why Liberals win isn’t guaranteed is since like NSW 2011 and QLD 2012 is since many voters still feel uncertain what Wilson’s Government would look like unlike O’Farrell or Newman (although the latter ended up having voters regret and only having one term as a result)
@Nadia, and I think under Jacinta Allan, Labor would probably have lost that campaign edge they usually have because the vast majority of the electorate had stopped listening to or trusting the messenger. They were checked out. And there weren’t many undecided voters left to sway either.
To me, the most important aspect of the leadership change is a new and less familiar messenger gives their campaign the best chance of being effective.
Polls, not policy, seem to dominate media coverage these days.
But I’m a Wilson supporter because she will likely bring a fresh and long awaited leadership style to Australian politics, not just Victoria.
I don’t care what the polls say until about a week out and that’s generally Newspoll
. And I couldn’t give a rats about journos on News24 constantly probing guests about Pauline and her one point movement, up or down. Or Wilson’s likebility compared to Ben. I do care about policy. I stick to the sports news in the Rage and the Hun these days,
.
I support very few if any of the Liberals’ policies which to me is more important than who the face of it is, or their leadership style.
I think even with our current population, let alone a growing one, Melbourne needs to move & behave like a proper large global city. Not a car-dependent, sprawling American one.
Urban planning is a bit of a passion of mine so it’s a major priority. And I’m not just talking about PT projects but the housing/zoning plans.
The Liberals are putting forward quite possibly the worst housing policy you could imagine. It’s like they have taken a 1950s American idea that has been proven to fail all over the world, and put it up as their 2026 policy.
You’d be hard pressed, worldwide, to find urban planners who don’t think evenly spread medium density infill in established areas, built around good PT links (including orbital rail lines), is the most sustainable and liveable design. The “missing middle” is generally regarded as the best type of development and density. Pretty much everyone agrees that the worst possible approach is that US model of a tall skyline that immediately drops away to low density car dependent sprawl.
Yet that is exactly the Liberals’ housing policy: expand the high density skyline of Docklands & Southbank into areas like Fitzroy & Collingwood (does anyone want more Docklands?), fast track low density developments on the outer fringe, and oppose most of the medium density zoning changes in established middle suburbs.
That is one of the main reasons I really don’t want them elected. Melbourne should grow & move like Paris and Osaka, not like Dallas or Phoenix.
I want Melbourne to become much more medium density, have much improved public transport, have an orbital rail line with high frequencies connecting the radial ones also with increased frequencies, good biking networks, 30km/h limits on residential backstreets. A city that isn’t designed to move traffic at the expense of everything else. The Libs are absolutely not the party to turn that vision into a reality.
Trent
Labor’s planning policies won’t achieve the Paris look, Labor’s planning policies look to be more about developers and investors than livability for residents. The Paris look can be achieved by zoning for medium density along the tram network.
@Trent at 2:10pm
Good post, I agree with all that.
The only solace is if the Coalition does get in then they’ll have to get their policies through a crossbench of clowns that’ll ruin the whole plan and they’ll be back in opposition in 2030.
Maybe Trent, but early signs don’t seem encouraging.
At the moment it seems the result is dependent on whether ON maintain steam and which their voters fall if their campaign falls flat. It’s unclear how Carroll is better placed to take advantage of that given Labor has now lost a regional MP as premier and he’s seemingly dunking on their signature achievements. He’s going to have to quickly pivot from ingratiating himself to 9 News for getting him the job and start talking about how Labor policies have and will continue to benefit the state.
Setting himself up into a situation where he can’t talk about the SEC, Big Build, energy transition or transport projects other than MARL doesn’t seem intuitive to me as foundations of a strong campaign. Especially given unfinished business in his previous portfolio (another reason it’s curious he was elevated over someone else).
The full Freshwater poll via their website is here.
Link: https://freshwaterstrategy.com/2026/08/04/herald-sun-freshwater-strategy-august-polling-data/
The primaries are located at Row 190 (already published upthread)
Row 227 – There is a hypothetical 2PP between the LNP 66% & ON 34%. (not published yet)
Suggests there is a hard ceiling to ON’s vote in Victoria. Probably a very hard ceiling.
The demographic voting breakdowns commence at row 237.
They provide age/income/education/home owner – renter status, but I can’t find the vote breakdown for inner, outer, regional or rurul.
Trent @2:10pm
Another reason to hope that Carroll stands his ground on Labor policy and doesn’t capitulate to poll- and media-driven directionless hysteria.
It’s certainly one of the most frustrating aspects of modern politics that the Liberals have essentially abandoned much evidence-based policy so long as they think it will play well in the Herald Sun. There is much of energy, planning, transport, education and health policy that is needlessly politicised all so we can enjoy more expensive, worse outcomes. I’d love for the Liberal party to explain to me how “pausing” a major infrastructure project mid-construction will lower its cost, for example.
There’s grounds for debate on everything, but apparently running a nuanced argument on anything is never worth the effort.
Labor’s Activity Centres are mostly in the right places (established inner & middle suburbs), the zoning is mostly medium density (with some high density), and they’re all around either train stations or tram routes. So I think the concept is definitely in the right direction.
I certainly don’t expect it to look like Paris, but my point is that’s more the direction we should be moving towards, rather than reinforcing the failed model of high-density around the CBD, more outer growth, but leaving the middle suburbs untouched.
I do think one thing that Ben Carroll could do though, is just remove some of the high density from the activity centres. That will show he’s listening, consulting, compromising and is a break from the very firm stance of not budging on anything that Andrews & Allan were more known for, and will have negligible impact on the benefits anyway because really it’s the medium density, not a handful of towers, that provides the benefit.
But he absolutely should stick to the Activity Centres & SRL as key policies that will shape the city.
Trent says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 1:59 pm
@Nadia, and I think under Jacinta Allan, Labor would probably have lost that campaign edge they usually have because the vast majority of the electorate had stopped listening to or trusting the messenger. They were checked out. And there weren’t many undecided voters left to sway either.
To me, the most important aspect of the leadership change is a new and less familiar messenger gives their campaign the best chance of being effective.
=====
Yep.
That Freshwater Poll gives her a minus 45 net/sat on her way out the door.
Darcy says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 1:10 pm
Bludgertrack doesn’t have freshwater yet though.
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Does now
Jess Wilson’s IPA ideology is incompatible with good government leadership. Victoria will suffer if they elect her, as she guts public services in order to transfer billions of dollars to people who are already billionaires.
One of the Baillieu/Napthine’s government’s worst mistakes was attempting to reroute the Melbourne Metro tunnel via Fishermans Bend. It delayed the whole development by at least 3 years. The engineering reports for that route would have made the SRL look modest – the Yarra river silt, the potential toxic ground (same dirt that delayed the Westgate tunnel), and the fact that it had to go under the city’s main sewer (which is huge and sits near the Westgate freeway).
Trent
Melbourne doesn’t have to look like Paris but Paris makes good use of 4 to 8 floor apartment blocks that are architecturally attractive. The activity centres are hit and miss, Camberwell Junction makes sense, others make less sense.
Problem with Liberal party is that they claim they will cut taxes for landlords, airbnbs, private schools; maintain services and also pay down debt.
They will allegedly do this with public sector savings. Not credible. They will either have to do massive austerity and deep cuts or have to maintain current tax settings.
So far very little on the bones policy wise.
What Ben Carroll’s cabinet cuts say about his ‘new direction’ for Victoria
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/aug/04/ben-carroll-new-cabinet-reshuffle-victoria-ministers
“The most striking feature of the new cabinet is which portfolios Carroll chose to abolish. Gone are the standalone transport infrastructure and Suburban Rail Loop portfolios that symbolised the Allan and Andrews governments’ focus. Carroll also scrapped the cost of living and the men and boys portfolios, the latter a national-first role established only four months ago by Allan to address the influence of the manosphere.
:::
Carroll has also slimmed the cabinet, confirming on Monday that the two vacancies created by the resignations of Allan supporters Lily D’Ambrosio and Harriet Shing will remain unfilled. He said on Monday it was a “simple measure” that showed he was treating taxpayers’ dollars with respect: the basic salary payable to an MP is $219,391 a year, while ministers receive an extra $184,407 and $19,628 in expense allowances.
:::
The move also quietly strengthens Carroll’s position inside cabinet. A smaller cabinet reduces the influence of the Socialist Left faction while increasing the proportion of ministers aligned with the new premier.
:::
The biggest is Colin Brooks’ elevation to treasurer. Brooks is said to have built a reputation among business groups as industry and advanced manufacturing minister for being pragmatic and willing to engage with industry.
He also inherits industrial relations, placing him at the centre of ongoing pay disputes – including with school teachers and public hospital doctors.”
Gorks says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 3:12 pm
Problem with Liberal party is that they claim they will cut taxes for landlords, airbnbs, private schools; maintain services and also pay down debt.
They will allegedly do this with public sector savings. Not credible…….
===============
It’s very credible because public sector sackings is the only real weapon they have to reduce the deficit or debt.
So this is def on the cards, although Jess Wilson has said it will be done by attrition.
They’ll do the old trick of (if) they win, they have a mini budget which discovers a budget black hole….and then the sackings will begin.
Kennett did it over the summer of 1992/1993.
There were so many sackings that people started to leave the state & I believe Victoria lost a Federal Division in Parliament, in the aftermath.
She’s declared that Gellung Warl (The Victorian Aboriginal Voice) will be dismantled, so I assume there is a bureaucracy behind that which will also go. What else is on the chopping block – well it depends on what the journo’s and Labor prise out of her in the next 15 weeks.
She’ll carve into the Public Service. It’s the only thing she can really do.
Whoever wins will cut the public sector, Labor has started on the Silver Report and governments always change their priorities.
Carroll Ministry:
https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/hub/media/tearout-excerpt/59942/CarrollMinistry_6c48o7mo.pdf
Pegasussays:
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 3:48 pm
He said on Monday it was a “simple measure” that showed he was treating taxpayers’ dollars with respect: the basic salary payable to an MP is $219,391 a year, while ministers receive an extra $184,407 and $19,628 in expense allowances.
_______________________
Woo hoo. A whopping saving of $136k by my calculations.
The last of the big spenders.
Jesus christ. I’ve been very pessimistic about the November election for months, but not this pessimistic.
At least it was largely before/during the leadership change, and so basically before Carroll started putting his stamp on things.
One Nation has not had campaign events aimed at convincing the masses to vote for them. They have closed door events with “supporters” who are prepared to part with their hard earned to rub shoulders with the famous (and infamous).
I suspect the “campaign” is not a serious tilt at governing Victoria because a ON Leader of the Opposition or Premier would outrank an aged senator.
I think Jess Wilson might change and turn anti-multicultural just to consolidate the One Nation Vote but using kinder language so that Moderates or Non-White Voters do not notice.
LOL. The Right wants to smash the public sector completely.
On the downside, Victoria’s November election is the first major election (apologies SA) since ON got up its full head of steam (and therefore with anti-establishment voters champing at the bit), and in circumstances where the incumbent government is very much on the backfoot.
On the upside, Victorian voters are the most sensible/progressive in the nation, overall, and ON is virtually certain to put a bunch of pelicans (to use Paul Hogan’s amusing description of Pauline Hanson). Much will depend on efforts to shine a light on the full extent of the clownishness of these clowns. (Having said that, ON’s Victorian leader Warren Pickering is vaguely presentable/articulate.)
alias – Pickering does seem better than the various Zedonks than One Nation comes up with at election time. However, we have seen less than a dozen candidates and they need to put up around 100 if they are going to run in all seats.
That’s right B. S. Fairman. What’s the betting they leave many of those candidate announcements until the absolute last minute to avoid much scrutiny? Let this Pickering chap try to reassure voters over the next three months or so, then slot in their slate of anyone with a pulse and without a serious criminal record. (If Tom Elliott’s interview with PH and Pickering on 3AW today is any indication, it’ll be a cruisey run for ON. At one point, Elliott asked Pickering the penetrating question: “Will you be a conviction politician too?”)
My guess is One Nation will do well enough to win some seats but they will be in the country; places like Shepparton, Morwell, Ripon etc. I am not sure that Pakenham is going to fall to One Nation as opposed to the Liberals. I guessing they will be between 6 and 12 seats.
Jacinta Allan was unelectable. Her position on Big Build corruption and refusing to empower IBAC until after the election was disgraceful.
With Carroll I can now vote to support Treaty, which will go under Wilson. As she is IPA bred, she no doubt has never seen a fossil fuel she didn’t want to burn, along with slashing services etc.
Carroll has already differentiated himself from JA. He has every chance to impress before the next election.
And it will be clear to the 70% who don’t support ON that a vote for the LNP will be a vote for ON. It remains to be seen how this turn off will affect votes
Nadia –
Malcolm Mackerras also predicted an outcome back in early July, but I still think even now it’s far too early to be able to say what will happen in November with any confidence. I definitely don’t think it’s ‘over’ for Victorian Labor yet, especially with the recent leadership change.
The comment about around 90% of One Nation preferences flowing to the Coalition is interesting – that would be very strong. I imagine it would be more likely to be relating to Victorian than federal polling, given the relative popularity of the two governments.
The comment from DemosAU is consistent with Redbridge commentary, and demonstrated by the Redbridge MRP, where the Coalition was the most efficient at translating contests where it finished in the top two into seats won at the final count. The Coalition should be able to rely on strong flows from either Labor or One Nation against the other – but this relies on them finishing in the top two in enough seats to secure a majority, which they couldn’t do on the earlier Redbridge figures (though I imagine they could on the latest Redbridge primaries). Whereas Labor will be punished by either Coalition or One Nation preferences when it competes with the other, and the strength of the flow of preferences from the Coalition to One Nation could be unpredictable.
For what it’s worth, Sportsbet has the Coalition at $1.55 and Labor at $2.62. “Any other” is $8.50. Presumably, it would pay out on “the Coalition” if it were to form minority government with ON support, though not if there were any sort of formal coalition between the Coalition and ON.
Alias – Sportsbet says it’s the party “which supplies the Victorian Premier”. So majority or minority is irrelevant. A hypothetical One Nation premier would clearly be “Any Other”.
Ah yes No Favour. I was looking at the betting slip itself which refers to “sworn in government”, but you’re quite right, the party “which supplies the premier” is mentioned separately.
Interestingly I don’t think those odds have shifted much recently.
Kevin Bonham just pointed out on twitter that the Freshwater poll included questions before the voting intention question (not normal practice). The questions are on their website:
https://freshwaterstrategy.com/
Here were the questions:
First question: Is the state going in the right or wrong direction?
2) Which of the following would you like the Victorian State Government to prioritise at this time? COL and Power bills (57%), Crime (52%), Housing affordability (30%), Health (24%), etc
3) …and which is MOST important? COL and Power (30%), Crime (20%), Housing Affordability (11%), etc
4) ‘In your view, who is best to manage the following issues in Victoria?
5) In your view, is the Ben Carroll-led Victorian Labor Government doing a good job, or bad job, running Victoria at this time?
6) Below are a list of figures in Victorian politics and culture. For each can you say whether you have heard of them, and if so, whether you have a favourable, unfavourable or neutral view of them?
7) Preferred Premier
8) Voting Intention
They also did a TPP Labor vs ON (53-47) as well as the Labor vs LNP (48-52)
Then a bunch more question.
People generally gloomy about the next 12 months.
Including Support SLR (37% vs 37%)
Big support for Airport.
Statue of Dan Andrews – Big disapproval.
And right on cue we have the crazy utterances of Victoria’s One Nation leader Warren Pickering – where the world is controlled by a secret cabal of ‘Globalists’ (a traditional nudge-nudge-wink-wink term for Jews). Hope someone (from Murdoch media perhaps as they are seemingly the only media One Nation will talk to!) asks him for his thoughts on the Bondi Royal Commission.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/inside-the-world-of-the-self-described-conspiracy-theorist-anointed-one-nation-s-victorian-leader-20260804-p60l7s.html
“In your view, is the Ben Carroll-led Victorian Labor Government doing a good job, or bad job, running Victoria at this time?”
This is a funny question to ask within the first 72 hours of a “Ben Carroll led” government even existing!
Hear here Trent, re urban planning.