The Financial Review has the first Victorian state poll since last week’s leadership change, courtesy of RedBridge/Accent Research. The results are not encouraging for Labor, who are down three on the same pollster’s result a month ago to 23%. The Coalition is up four on a soft primary vote result last month to 30%, but One Nation is down five to 22% while the Greens gain one to 14%. Labor trails the Coalition 57-43 on two-party preferred; the Financial Review’s graphic confusingly has One Nation with a 54-43 lead over the Coalition. Ben Carroll records a minus 15% on net favourability, though 57% said they had no strong impression of him. Jess Wilson is unchanged at plus 13% net favourability. Nineteen per cent said the leadership change made them more likely to vote Labor compared with 14% for less likely and 56% for no difference. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1014.
UPDATE: I missed another poll out overnight, from Freshwater Strategy in the Herald Sun, although its field work period of July 21 to August 3 began well before the leadership change on July 28. It has the Coalition at 30%, up three on the last such poll in June; Labor at 25%, up two; One Nation at 22%, down three; and the Greens steady at 14%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is in from 53-47 to 52-48. Ben Carroll records 21% favourable, 31% neutral and 29% unfavourable; Jess Wilson 39% favourable, 25% neutral and 21% unfavourable. The sample for the poll was 1020.
Further Victorian election news:
• The government’s legislation to abolish group voting tickets is now before the upper house, having been introduced to the lower house on the same day Jacinta Allan was deposed and passed the following day. Reflecting the practice for the Senate, above-the-line voters will be directed to fill a number of boxes above the line equal to the number of vacancies (so five rather than six for the Senate), though a savings provision will in fact mean that a single number one will suffice for a formal vote. Since the legislation leaves intact the state’s eight five-member regions with their quota for election of 16.7% (abolishing them would require a referendum), Labor, the Coalition, One Nation and the Greens seem likely to dominate.
• One Nation finally announced a slate of eight candidates yesterday, and designated state party president Warren Pickering as its prospective parliamentary leader, and candidate for the lower house seat of Pakenham. The others named were lead upper house candidates: high-profile Liberal Party defector Colleen Harkin in South-Eastern Metropolitan; Mark Nicholson, the animator behind the party’s cartoon web series and Super Progressive Movie feature, in Northern Metropolitan; Chris Burson, Geelong councillor and former police officer and Angry Victorians candidate, in Western Victoria; criminal lawyer Aaron Sandford in Southern Metropolitan; Fiona Lopez in Western Metropolitan; Natalie Adams in Eastern Metropolitan; and the party’s sole incumbent, Rikki-Lee Tyrrell, who will seek re-election in Northern Victoria.
• As well as Jacinta Allan announcing she will not contest the next election, creating a vacancy in her seat of Bendigo East (margin 10.8%), two further senior ministers announced their impending retirements in the wake of last week’s leadership change: Climate Change Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, who holds Mill Park on a margin of 11.6%; and Health Minister Harriet Shing, who was second on Labor’s Eastern Victoria upper house ticket in 2022.
• Kim O’Keeffe announced last fortnight she will not recontest Shepparton, which she gained for the Nationals from independent Suzanna Sheed in 2022. Chip Le Grand of The Age reports Steve Threlfall, a Shepparton councillor and shooting and sports store owner, has confirmed he is seeking One Nation preselection, and there are suggestions the mayor, Shane Sali, could ran for One Nation or either of the Coalition parties.
• Will Fowles, who became Labor’s member for Ringwood in 2022 and resigned from the parliamentary party in August 2023, has announced he will not stand at the election.
Also just curious, why are NSW state elections always a few months after Victoria’s
It’s been like that for the last 24 years. But 2 state elections within a few months in the two most populated states
It’s unacceptable because it’s too close to the electoral calendar for both states. Why won’t both states reappeal the fixed terms?
Daniel T
Fixed terms
Australia should move to fixed 4 year terms with every state & council election on the same day, then 2 years later the Federal election.
Fixed terms are shitful. Wildly unpopular govts limp on for years. Having all the media run from Melbourne is also bad, because there is no coverage of politics in other states. We sat here in Sydney suffering night after night of Daniel Andrews coverage while nothing was said about Dom P and the iCare scandal.
4 year fixed terms are a good idea, just a shame that Victoria and NSW are 4 months apart
Next round of Victorian polling will be interesting, has the leader change worked?
Doctors striking next week? The Government has some problems to solve before caretaker mode
Hard being green – Caretaker mode only starts on Melbourne Cup day. Months to go.
However, there is only one more scheduled sitting week, so any law changes need to be made fast.
One Nation Vic Leader Pickering was pushing the conspiracy theories around 15-minute cities. However, that was never a policy in Victoria; it was too hard to even aim for, so Victoria only ever had a policy of 20‑minute neighbourhoods.
https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/guides-and-resources/strategies-and-initiatives/plan-melbourne/the-plan
B S Fairman
Never let the truth get in the way of a narrative.
“It’s unacceptable because it’s too close to the electoral calendar for both states. Why won’t both states reappeal the fixed terms?”
What’s the problem?
“Fixed terms are shitful. Wildly unpopular govts limp on for years.”
And wildly unpopular government limped on for years when there were not fixed terms. If they had a majority they could hang on as long as possible.
I see no problem with the NSW and Victorian elections being four months apart, especially with the Christmas shutdown in between.
15 minute cities = The way all cities & suburbs were built & planned prior to the post-1950s car dominance.
It’s the most ridiculous conspiracy theory ever.
All a “15 minute city” means, is to stop planning around the assumption that everybody has a car and can drive, so that daily errands can be accessible within 15 minutes without needing a car.
You know what that also does for people who do need/want to drive? It removes a lot of unnecessary traffic…
An updated note for you. The pollster has responded to Kevin Bonham on twitter and the actual TPP in the Redbridge poll was 57-43 not 53-47 which was on the attached graphic
JESSLIDE!
“No wonder golf clubs don’t want him as a member”
There is always Bedminster and Turnberry …..
The mistaken 53-47 does seem much more plausible on the provided primary votes, a quite extraordinary flow of preferences from ONP (85% plus), more severe GRN leakage to LNP than we’ve seen in recent cycles or a more positive flow from Others would be required, possibly some combination of the 3.
“The mistaken 53-47 does seem much more plausible”
The pollster stated the correct figure was 57-43, plausible or not that is what it was (and this article needs to be updated to reflect that)
If they’re in on the 15 minute city nonsense they’ll be deep into the typical Q-Anon, Anti-Jewish “Globalist” conspiracies.
Fascinating that the “august journal of record”, the Age exposed the One Nation Victoria leader is a conspiracy nutter days after Hanson barred them from her press conferences.
This stuff has been available for some years for any journalist willing to do a bit of work. The other candidates could do with a bit investigating too.
My first version of this post noted the AFR’s disparity between the 57-43 result in the report and the 53-47 result in the graphic, and said the former seemed more likely; scrubbed all that when the AFR changed the report to say 53-47; and is now back to saying 57-43 after the AFR report was changed back, which is apparently right. The AFR’s graphic has remained unchanged — it has 53-47 on Coalition-versus-Labor, which is wrong, and 54-43 on One Nation versus Coalition, which the pollster is as confused by as the rest of us.
Hey, all. I just got an SMS poll from Roy Morgan about the upcoming Victorian state election and I completed it.
I was asked for:
-First preference and second preference,
-If I approved or disapproved of how I thought Ben Carroll, Jess Wilson and Warren Pickering were each doing their respective jobs as Premier, Opposition Leader and One Nation leader.
-I was also asked: out of Carroll, Wilson or Pickering, which I’d think would make the better Premier.
All those were all multiple-choice questions.
I was also given two long-answer questions to end the poll.
Please share, if you also got this SMS poll and answered it.
So, results from Roy Morgan’s SMS poll for the Victorian state election in the not-too-distant future.
Given the most recent polls were taken on the week of Carroll becoming premier, is 8 days into the Carroll Government, is it still too early to determine if Carroll has improved Labor’s numbers or not?
I think maybe it is, given people might want to see how Gabrielle Williams (new education minister) handles the teachers strike or how the planned hospitals strike next Thursday are handled, or if they drop hints of any eye-catching policy early on, amongst other things.
Most importantly, the public and punters alike may need time to see his Carroll defines his government or if either One Nation or the Lib-Nat Coalition can make things difficult in the last sitting week of parliament. I still think opinions are still being formed, even with people I have spoken to about it.
SMS polls are rubbish anyways.
Yeah, I share your skepticism, Gorks, of whether SMS polls accurately capture public sentiment at a given moment, compared to conventional polling.
But, we are on a forum about polls, in any case. I still thought it would be of interest and it’ll give our avid poll-watchers another poll to look out for. Especially the discussions that would follow, if there’s a eye-catching result.
Ie. One Nation 35%
Honestly, the past Roy Morgan SMS polls have typically had One Nation’s primary vote higher than other polls.
Ie. May 13-14 2026, just after the budget: One Nation 32% & ALP: 28.5% & L/NP: 16.5% (When no other federal polls had ON ahead and two polls had ON & ALP ties, up to that point)
NSW in Feb: ON: 30%, ALP: 25%, L/NP: 19% (when no other NSW poll had ON in the lead)
Maybe that’s why they draw the attention. I don’t know…
The AFR had a previous misadventure with AI graphs, I am wondering if the incorrect pie charts for the Redbridge poll might be a further infection of this disease.
It could also be a zoomer intern who didn’t bother doing maths in high school.
In my experience, the worst offenders with using lazy/bad AI graphs isn’t the zoomers… it’s the boomers.
The Age just now calling for the lynching of Dan Andrews.
And I thought the ALP knew how to hate!
“It’s unacceptable because it’s too close to the electoral calendar for both states. Why won’t both states reappeal the fixed terms?”
What’s the problem?
“Fixed terms are shitful. Wildly unpopular govts limp on for years.”
And wildly unpopular government limped on for years when there were not fixed terms. If they had a majority they could hang on as long as possible.
@blackburnpseph
Exactly. I’m not sure where the logic of removing fixed terms would lead to unpopular governments rushing to elections only to get walloped. Fixed terms prevent governments from calling opportunistic snap elections and forcing the public to go to the polls early.
I also don’t see what the problem is with NSW and Victoria having elections four months apart. It’s not like you’re forcing the public to go to the polls twice. Local news bulletins really only cover news about their own state, but four months is enough of a gap anyway. Queensland’s elections are just before the United States elections, and the impact on Queensland elections is zilch.
The only thing that is shitful is the case to remove fixed terms just so a couple of political almanacs think they should be spaced out.
The lib/nats propaganda media units, bringing Daniel Andrews into the public arena , may not help lib/nats who are struggling to get to combined primary vote (34.69%)2022 Victorian state election level
@Scott
Is it not a concern to you that the Labor party is currently shedding anywhere between 8 and 16% of it’s primary vote whilst unlike the Coalition do not have an insurgent and massively increased preference source from 2022 as ONP are to the Coalition today?
Max
Depending on the opinion poll
The liberal party primary vote alone is around 25/26%, not much better than Labor ,
If one nation is getting support , will likely come off the liberal party primary vote.
One nation is going to be receiving swing from and taking off the liberal party candidates primary votes and in 2pp in non lib/nats seats.
Liberal party or the one nation party candidate will not gain non – lib/nats held seats with less than 35% primary vote
Neither will get enough 2pp support , to get to 50% or more
Liberal party or the one nation candidates , both of their primary votes are not going to get into the 30%, in non l.ib/nats held seats.
If one of the liberal party or one nation candidate primary vote was over 30% , more likely the other one primary vote will be around mid teens or below 10%
Scott
You cannot assume that all One Nation votes will come from the LNP. In South Australia – an election where Labor were travelling well, there were a goodly number of seats – Elizabeth, Taylor, Lee, Kaurna amongst them where One Nation came second BUT about 50% of their vote seemed to come directly from the ALP. It would seem with some extrapolation in both Farrer and Nepean – about 30% of what was the ALP vote went to One Nation. The ALP are an old tired government – it is very very likely that the ALP will shed a substantial number of votes directly to ON – they might come back to the ALP as preferences if ON make the final two.
Yeah sorry Scott but your analysis makes no sense when you consider that the Coalition is losing about 5% of its 2022 support but ONP are coming out of the gates with over 20% – where did the rest of that come from??
From 2022 the combined progressive vote (ALP+GRN) has evaporated from about 47% all the way back to about 38-40% whilst the conservative vote (LNP+ONP) is now hovering at about 52% (harder to calculate from 2022). Hence we are seeing 7-10% swings on headline 2PP in some of these polls.
@ Max, many Coalition 2022 Voters moved to One Nation but it is just moderate swing voters that voted Labor in 2022 but that are considering to vote for Liberal this election that compensated for the loss. I do agree that there may be quite a fair amount of Red One Nation Voters (Labor-One Nation Voters) mainly from tradies.
And those ‘Red’ ON voters could do major damage to Labor in the outer suburbs as well as Geelong and Ballarat. In other regional areas, they will sink Labor down to a distant third place.
Max
Absolute majority of one nation candidates are coming off 0 % primary vote , so the 20%+ swing isn’t going to help them, if more than half or any of that swing is coming off the liberal party candidate
in Labor held seats.
blackburnpseph
The seats you mention for the sa election, Labor primary votes were very safe Labor held seats over primary votes over . 50 and 60% previous election. And Labor primary votes still above one nation candidates, with the swing and above 30% primary vote
The opinion polling narration is assuming most of the swing against labor primary vote and 2pp is not going to go greens or other non lib/nats aligned political party’s/independents
But going to go to lib/nats or one nation,, that is not making much sense
@Scott
ONP preferences are flowing 75-80% to LNP.
If the LNP are losing 5% but gaining 15-17% off ONP preferences that leaves them vastly better off whilst Labor are losing about 8% on net after you account for their primary vote drop and a small uptick in the Green vote.
You are missing the forest for the trees in a big way here, either willfully or not
Max
Don’t think one nation preferences flows will be that high to lib/nats .
If there are more of these contests
One nation vs lib/nats
or
one nation vs Labor/other non lib/nats aligned
For those who’d like to look through the demographic details on the Redbridge Poll, here it is.
Inner City vote:
* LNP 38 – this is quite large, and a surprise
* ALP 26
* GRN 18 – this is where the green vote is banking up. Not a bad figure
* ON 12 – as expected
Full report here:
Link: https://www.accent-research.com/projects/afr%2C-redbridge-group-and-accent-research-august-2026-victorian-state-poll
Edit: Page 9 confirms the overall 2PP as 57-43, in favour of the Libs.
Via Redbridge, Gen Z vote in their Victorian poll:
* GRN 32 – huge figure, but Gen Z will be spread around the state
* ALP 26 – Looks like Gen Z are moving from Labor straight to the Greens (def not to the Libs or ON)
* LIB 18
* ON 17
However, the ALP leads on 2PP 54-46 v ON.
WB – the full report for the current Federal Redbridge is there too, if you wish to plug it into your intro for the current open thread.
Link: https://www.accent-research.com/projects/afr%2C-redbridge-group-and-accent-research-july-2026-federal-poll
Scott says:
Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 2:17 pm
Max
Don’t think one nation preferences flows will be that high to lib/nats …..
==============
Scott, page 5 of the above report (the Vic one), has their respondent allocated 2PP measures.
If the Libs go out at 3CP stage, their vote splits 35 (ALP) & 65 (ON)
If Labor goes out as 3CP stage, their vote splits 90 (LIB) & 10 (ON)
Greens voters have also sharpened the pencils. They’re telling this pollster they’ll now preference Labor at a split of 92-8
Looking like a very polarised electoral outcome in November
Thanks Nadia
The respondent-allocated preference flows are ludicrous and clearly that’s what’s led to the 57-43 figure. ONP preferences flowing 90% to the Coalition at 23% of the statewide vote, effectively handing the Coalition a majority of the vote out of the gate statewide. 65% of Coalition preferences are flowing to ONP over Labor
Max, you’re correct.
I misread the report. My apologies.
The ON vote is flowing at a rate of 90 (LIB) to 10 (ALP), at 3PP stage.
Page 5
Nadia
there are a lot of assumptions from the opinion polling
estimating one nation to lib/nats from the 2025 federal election , making assumption it will be same for the victorian election
And if in liberal party 18 held seats or national party 9 held seats
if majority of those 27 seats , are lib/nats vs one nation
they do not preferences each other or do they ?
if they do not preferences each other both in top 2 , than lib/nats are not going to get 80% of one nation preferences all up
Nadia
I wasnt meaning you were making assumptions, I was meaning from the opinion polling
No probs Scott. Don’t worry, I misread the report myself. I probably should’ve dropped the Federal data on the main thread to avoid confusion. Anyway, no big deal.
The Redbridge Vic Poll is using respondent allocated preferences, not the 2025 election flow, or more accurately the 2022 Vic election preference flows.
Respondent allocated preferencing is, apparently, regarded as historically inaccurate, but all Redbridge-Accent are doing is simply publishing what their sample is telling them.
So their sample is telling them that when push comes to shove, ON voters will preference the Libs at a flow of 90%.
This must have been the poll James Campbell (journo) was referring to the other week.
Respondent allocated preferences don’t have a great predictive record compared to historical flows as I understand – I’m not sure exactly how polls collect this information but the experience of actually filling out a ballot and the presence of HTVCs etc is likely quite different, a sample of 1200 or so if obviously fine for first preference votes but isn’t great for preference allocations IMO either
The trend over time is that ONP preferences are hardening towards the Coalition, but a leap from the mid-70s to 90-10 is really asking something. The flow was most definitely not that strong in Nepean or SA (where ONP ran open tickets)
A few Labor supporters are branding Jess Wilson as “Jess Kennett”, in hopes of evoking Kennett’s savage cuts to schools and other social services in the 1990s, but how many voters under 40 remember Kennett?