The Financial Review has the first Victorian state poll since last week’s leadership change, courtesy of RedBridge/Accent Research. The results are not encouraging for Labor, who are down three on the same pollster’s result a month ago to 23%. The Coalition is up four on a soft primary vote result last month to 30%, but One Nation is down five to 22% while the Greens gain one to 14%. Labor trails the Coalition 57-43 on two-party preferred; the Financial Review’s graphic confusingly has One Nation with a 54-43 lead over the Coalition. Ben Carroll records a minus 15% on net favourability, though 57% said they had no strong impression of him. Jess Wilson is unchanged at plus 13% net favourability. Nineteen per cent said the leadership change made them more likely to vote Labor compared with 14% for less likely and 56% for no difference. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1014.
UPDATE: I missed another poll out overnight, from Freshwater Strategy in the Herald Sun, although its field work period of July 21 to August 3 began well before the leadership change on July 28. It has the Coalition at 30%, up three on the last such poll in June; Labor at 25%, up two; One Nation at 22%, down three; and the Greens steady at 14%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is in from 53-47 to 52-48. Ben Carroll records 21% favourable, 31% neutral and 29% unfavourable; Jess Wilson 39% favourable, 25% neutral and 21% unfavourable. The sample for the poll was 1020.
Further Victorian election news:
• The government’s legislation to abolish group voting tickets is now before the upper house, having been introduced to the lower house on the same day Jacinta Allan was deposed and passed the following day. Reflecting the practice for the Senate, above-the-line voters will be directed to fill a number of boxes above the line equal to the number of vacancies (so five rather than six for the Senate), though a savings provision will in fact mean that a single number one will suffice for a formal vote. Since the legislation leaves intact the state’s eight five-member regions with their quota for election of 16.7% (abolishing them would require a referendum), Labor, the Coalition, One Nation and the Greens seem likely to dominate.
• One Nation finally announced a slate of eight candidates yesterday, and designated state party president Warren Pickering as its prospective parliamentary leader, and candidate for the lower house seat of Pakenham. The others named were lead upper house candidates: high-profile Liberal Party defector Colleen Harkin in South-Eastern Metropolitan; Mark Nicholson, the animator behind the party’s cartoon web series and Super Progressive Movie feature, in Northern Metropolitan; Chris Burson, Geelong councillor and former police officer and Angry Victorians candidate, in Western Victoria; criminal lawyer Aaron Sandford in Southern Metropolitan; Fiona Lopez in Western Metropolitan; Natalie Adams in Eastern Metropolitan; and the party’s sole incumbent, Rikki-Lee Tyrrell, who will seek re-election in Northern Victoria.
• As well as Jacinta Allan announcing she will not contest the next election, creating a vacancy in her seat of Bendigo East (margin 10.8%), two further senior ministers announced their impending retirements in the wake of last week’s leadership change: Climate Change Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, who holds Mill Park on a margin of 11.6%; and Health Minister Harriet Shing, who was second on Labor’s Eastern Victoria upper house ticket in 2022.
• Kim O’Keeffe announced last fortnight she will not recontest Shepparton, which she gained for the Nationals from independent Suzanna Sheed in 2022. Chip Le Grand of The Age reports Steve Threlfall, a Shepparton councillor and shooting and sports store owner, has confirmed he is seeking One Nation preselection, and there are suggestions the mayor, Shane Sali, could ran for One Nation or either of the Coalition parties.
• Will Fowles, who became Labor’s member for Ringwood in 2022 and resigned from the parliamentary party in August 2023, has announced he will not stand at the election.
He has only just become premier, don’t count chicken eggs before they hatch.
There are a lot of people that probably weren’t aware of the change of Premier when they were surveyed. Let’s just wait for the next Newspoll before we jump to conclusions about whether this government is done and dusted in November
But I don’t see how Labor can reach 45, the path to 45 solely rests with the 3-5 Green MLA’s that likely will be elected.
I would not rule out a centre right majority in the upper house though, so a labour green minority government will have a lot of headaches from the upper house.
But I sincerely hope the government is re-elected.
Interesting times ahead….
Reposting this from overnight on the previous thread
I hope Labor don’t play silly buggers with preferences and run a strong Put One Nation Last campaign
It might cost them a few seats to the Liberals but will also provide a contrast to them
And when they are asked about minority government, run with the line “we’re hoping to win in our own right but the voters will decide what the next parliament looks like” or similar
I’d hope Victorians would rather a Labor government propped up the Greens than a Liberal one propped up by One Nation
While Federal Labor is apparently saying that wouldn’t be a terrible result bigger picture, imagine the damage they would do down there over the next 4 years
Not that it will matter unless these numbers improve for Labor, it could well land on a Liberal majority
Liberal party primary vote about 26% and national party 4%. below 2022 state election
Most of lib/nats and one nation primary votes will be higher in lib/nats
, if one nation is taking majority of national party (9 seats) and about half of Liberal party 18 seats .
only a few Labor seats or non lib/nats aligned
lib/nats and one nation together getting higher then 35 seats , im struggling to see it
have to wait til the victorian election
Scott out of interest what’s the lowest primary vote you think Labor can win from?
Sub 25, like it is here?
Sub 20?
Sub 30?
Leafleting for the Greens over the weekend in a Labor seat.
There are a few Australians flag cooker houses about, but not as many as I had feared. I’ve still only met about a dozen admitted ON voters – fugwits to the man.
Lots and lots of EVs.
Anyone who tells you they know what will happen in this election is deluded. That said, the polling will give us a fair idea, as it always does. I’m tipping (yes, a pointless exercise at this point, so really a wishcast) the conservative parties eat themselves, but time will tell.
Reposting from main thread last night
I am actually four months out from our Victorian election predicting that One Nation will win very few lower house seats – maybe two or three.
They will win more in the upper house – will be interesting to see analysis of their candidates so far announced and even more so if they do put up 88 lower house candidates. And even more interesting will be Pauline Hanson’s reaction to such scrutiny.
Because I will be very surprised if in a group of more than 100 One Nation candidates selected at pretty short notice there aren’t a few ‘unusual’ characters with ‘interesting’ views or ‘colourful’ pasts!
Mabwm
I’m waiting for a Hanson tirade against EV’s – as someone noted she’s gone past attacking minorities and has started in on majorities (a strange tactic!) : women (51%), people who were born overseas or have at least one parent who was (51%), and workers (well over 50%).
Hard Being Green says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 7:11 am
Scott out of interest what’s the lowest primary vote you think Labor can win from?
Sub 25, like it is here?
Sub 20?
Sub 30?
——————————
Depends on each seat, in labor safe held seats vs liberal party or one nation
Labor candidate would likely hold on with primary vote around 30% ,
cannot see either liberal party or one nation getting close to enough of the swing to them from labor.
Labor may struggle against non align liberal party or one nation candidate
Labor candidate primary vote would likely need 36%+
not saying it will be accurate
That is my opinion,
The way it looks, the opinion polls are claiming
In a lot of Labor held seats , the
liberal party despite a swing against and one nation candidate starting off with 0% or below 10% primary vote
is going to be 30%+ and 20% +
Is that likely to happen no its not
Rocket Rocket @ #7 Tuesday, August 4th, 2026 – 7:23 am
Well I think she is very much in the same league as Trump and other despots as far as her supporters are concerned.
As has been pointed out she is teflon,nothing you can throw at her sticks except maybe eggs.The supporters have switched off,they truly believe they are in the majority and like all righteous religious types the rest of us all need saving.
2000 years of quackery and many reasonably, one would have thought somewhat educated persons have learned nothing.
Its too soon for this poll to mean anything. One thing it does make clear is that Carrol must set a different tone and some different policies to Allen for Labor to have a chance in November. Merely changing leaders will not be enough.
Shing is no great loss to Victorian politics.
Loved by Andrews and Allan for her enthusiastic nodding during announcements.
Thanks Scott. I think they’ll need 30+ to win but see where it lands. Maybe just under 30 if the Greens get closer 20. Victorian Socialists will do ok as well
Dare to dream
I think these numbers (and yes, isolated poll etc.) need to be considered from the perspective of if you were an ALP campaign manager in Victoria. Would you trade a 3% primary drop off about 14(ish)-weeks out from an election for having a new leader who is +15 and not -42 approval?
Personally, I’d say a very cautious yes. Ok, sure, there are a lot who don’t know about Ben Carroll. But they’d certainly made their minds up on Jacinta Allan.
That said, you’d much rather be LNP at this point in the race me thinks.
Here4theData or Taylormade, or anyone,
Do you have access to the Herald Sun by chance.
It looks like there is another new poll, this time headlined – “Ben bounce”.
@Nadia
As a dyed-in-the-wool (i.e., long-suffering) Essendon fan, after some of the reporting during the ASADA stuff (and I’m very much against Hird getting the coaching gig again, but some of the stuff on individual players left a really bad taste in my mouth), the Herald Sun gets neither a cent nor a read from me anymore.
So, someone else will need to track that one down!
nadia @ #15 Tuesday, August 4th, 2026 – 8:35 am
‘The exclusive Freshwater Strategy poll – commissioned by the Herald Sun and taken in the days immediately after last week’s leadership coup that saw Ben Carroll replace Jacinta Allan as premier – shows the change has arrested Labor’s slide, but tips the Coalition to win government for the first time since 2010.
Labor’s primary vote lifted two percentage points since June to 25 per cent, while the Coalition climbed three points to 30 per cent.’
The requirement for a referendum to which William refers is ineffective unless it is a law respecting the “constitution, powers or procedures” of the Victorian Parliament; see section 6 of the Australia Act 1986,(Cth).
Of course, this will not be tested until there’s a law passed that ignores this requirement. It’s not an easy question to answer.
Kos Samaras on facebook
https://www.facebook.com/kosmos.samaras/posts/pfbid026PwAbE5Vob8gte2NALhfjdqSWMCMfbKqRoceNwUjcfDPY5oynR7Ak4ATcTKvgeNAl
Kos Samaras
Our latest RedBridge Accent poll of Victoria. Published in the Financial Review.
Everyone has a problem, including Hanson.
First preferences: Coalition 30, Labor 23, One Nation 22, Greens 14, others 11.
Labor’s primary is at a level with no modern precedent in this state. The Coalition leads, but at 30 it is not being rewarded for it. One Nation at 22 is the story in these numbers.
One caveat. The fieldwork captures sentiment during the period before and the week of the leadership change. Voters had not yet processed it and it can take a while before enough in the electorate process the change for it to appear in polling numbers. We will have a clearer picture in a few weeks.
On the leaders, both major party figures remain undefined. Jess Wilson is net positive at +13, but only 53 per cent of voters can form a view of her at all. Ben Carroll is net negative at -15, with hard recognition of 43 per cent.
That is risk and opportunity for both. Leaders who are undefined this close to an election usually get defined by their opponents.
The insight that matters most to me is Hanson. She is the most recognised figure in this survey at 85 per cent. She is also the most disliked. Net -17, with 40 per cent of Victorians holding a very unfavourable view of her.
Yet One Nation sits at 22, and its vote is the hardest in the field. Among voters who describe their vote as solid, One Nation is at 28. It rises to 32 among TAFE and trade qualified voters, 28 among those without year 12, and 27 in the outer suburbs.
Read those two things together. This is not a Hanson vote. Victorians are not warming to her. They are reaching for a vehicle, not a leader.
That has two implications. Her personal standing is a ceiling on the vote, not the engine driving it. And the major parties cannot dislodge it by attacking her, because these voters already agree with the attack. Something else is moving them, and neither major party has named it or worked out its source yet. I have a piece on the source on the way.
Many thanks Grimee, and Here4theData – quite understandable.
Herald Sun is a bit of an angry rag, but they’re handy with a poll every so often.
I don’t have access to their sister paper – the Courier Mail – up here either (apart from buying it)
So, Freshwater Strategy is back.
Grimee – any other primaries pls, and a 2PP if they have calculated one.
If I can be a pest too – sample & poll period pls, although WB will probably dig all that up later.
Freshwater poll. To see something in those paywalled sites, try using https://archive.is/ – you need to get the URL (best to copy the link from the front page rather than click through if you don’t have an account, as the URL will change). Play around with the site and you will get the idea.
TPP: L/NP 52 (-1) ALP 48 (+1)
Primaries: ALP 25 (+2) L/NP 30 (+3) ON (-3)
poor poll reporting, no other primaries given in the article
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/freshwater-strategy-poll-shows-that-on-a-twoparty-preferred-basis-the-coalition-remains-in-front-of-labor-52-to-48/news-story/28da81559b3cf762608351667fac5cb3
archive version (no paywall): https://archive.is/PtDA1
Freshwater Strategy poll shows that on a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition remains in front of Labor 52 to 48
Exclusive polling commissioned by the Herald Sun and taken in the days immediately after Ben Carroll toppled Jacinta Allan as Premier has provided an early read on the leadership change. Full details here.
Shannon Deery and James Campbell
August 4, 2026 – 5:00AM
Labor remains on track to lose November’s state election despite a change of leader and new polling showing its first political bounce in months.
The exclusive Freshwater Strategy poll – commissioned by the Herald Sun and taken in the days immediately after last week’s leadership coup that saw Ben Carroll replace Jacinta Allan as premier – shows the change has arrested Labor’s slide, but tips the Coalition to win government for the first time since 2010.
Labor’s primary vote lifted two percentage points since June to 25 per cent, while the Coalition climbed three points to 30 per cent.
Despite shaving three points from its primary vote, One Nation remains a viable third option for voters at 22 per cent, shaping the election as a genuine three-way contest.
On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition remains in front 52 to 48, with Labor closing the gap by one point since June.
The poll of 1020 Victorian voters between July 31 and August 3 was conducted in the days after last week’s coup that saw Ms Allan resign as premier after almost three years in the job.
More than eight in 10 Victorians knew Labor had changed leaders, underlining how quickly the political reset has registered with voters.
nadia @ #20 Tuesday, August 4th, 2026 – 8:55 am
Despite shaving three points from its primary vote, One Nation remains a viable third option for voters at 22 per cent, shaping the election as a genuine three-way contest.
On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition remains in front 52 to 48, with Labor closing the gap by one point since June.
The poll of 1020 Victorian voters between July 31 and August 3 was conducted in the days after last week’s coup that saw Ms Allan resign as premier after almost three years in the job.
More than eight in 10 Victorians knew Labor had changed leaders, underlining how quickly the political reset has registered with voters.
While most said the leadership change would make no difference to their vote, those who said it would make them more likely to consider Labor outnumbered those pushed away by the move 26 per cent to 12 per cent.
However, voters are still not convinced by Mr Carroll, with just 27 per cent saying they trust the new premier or Labor to act in Victoria’s best interests, while 42 per cent distrust them.
Asked who they trust more, Opposition Leader Jess Wilson and the Coalition lead Mr Carroll and Labor by 47 per cent to 31 per cent.
Mr Carroll also trailed Ms Wilson as preferred premier, with the latter on 48 per cent, down one point since June, and the Labor leader on 27 per cent.
Labor now has a pulse.
Libs have a Lplater as leader and a long history in VIC of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Quote from herald Sun
Freshwater Strategy director Dr Mike Turner said Labor was clinging on in the election race.
“The Coalition would much rather be where they are today, but they shouldn’t measure the curtains just yet,” he said.
“A 52-48 lead is winning, but not yet won. The leadership change has given Labor a brief second look from voters, with 26 per cent saying Ben Carroll makes them more likely to consider Labor. That’s just enough to keep this election competitive.
“One Nation remains a significant force in Victorian politics, but their trajectory has changed significantly.
“They’re still polling at a healthy 22 per cent, but they’re down three points since June.
“Surges are easy to build, but holding them together once a campaign gets serious is much harder.
“The most politically significant number in this poll isn’t the two-party preferred, it’s that around one in five Labor voters think Jess Wilson would make the better premier.
“Elections are won by persuading people to change teams, and that’s exactly where the Coalition’s opportunity lies.”
I agree with Here4The Data.
Every leadership change comes with an immediately transactional cost I think, especially when it played out as messily as this one did.
Look at the timeline, on the Sunday & Monday, Jacinta Allan was still standing her ground so much that she even told cabinet members to resign, and wrote a letter saying she would contest the ballot even if she lost a spill. She really did a lot of damage making Labor look divided, the way that was handled.
Then, next morning, she does the right thing and resigns, chooses not to contest, but Sonya Kilkenny puts her hand up, risks the drawn out 5-6 week process, that got lots of media coverage including Jacinta Allan herself voting against Ben Carroll in the caucus vote.
This Redbridge poll commenced the same day all that was occurring and absolutely dominating the media (traditional & social), so it’s expected that the negative impact of that will be at its peak.
Meanwhile, Ben Carroll still has very little recognition, and wouldn’t have announced much at all yet – especially for people who responded to the poll on Day 0 (Tuesday).
So overall that poll is going to reflect the messy events of 26-28 July more than it would reflect opinion about the new leadership and/or perceived direction.
A -3 on primary vote, taken that week, is probably very expected. But there’s a lot more that’s promising than there is negative for Labor in that.
57% of voters not having a view on Ben Carroll compared to only 4% being undecided on Jacinta Allan (and 71% disapproving) represents a fresh start. It’s also an opportunity for the electorate to actually listen to the campaign messages, with a new messenger they are curious about.
Preferred Premier had 43% of people choosing Jess Wilson before the leadership change, which has dipped to 32% (the biggest change is that undecided/neither went from 33% to 49%). What that says is that about a quarter of people who had previously already decided they preferred Jess Wilson, are now open to re-evaluating the contest and have moved into the undecided basket.
Importantly, responding to whether the leadership change has changed your vote, the result is a net +5 for Labor who said it made them more likely rather than less likely.
All those indicators point to opportunities for Labor to recover, that simply didn’t exist anymore.
Not saying they definitely will or that it will be easy, it’s an uphill battle, but coming from a losing position with a leader who had a 71% disapproval rating and only 4% undecided, to a position where the contest is effectively reset with a lot of voters moving back into the undecided basket, is exactly what you would hope for.
And the poll dip immediately after 3 very messy days with wall to wall negative media coverage about how it played out is not exactly a surprise.
Kevin has the full Freshwater primaries, his post below…
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social
#Freshwater Vic (state) ALP 25 L-NP 30 ON 22 Grn 14 Ind/other 9
2PP by unstated method 52-48 to L-NP
My estimate 53.2 to L-NP
L-NP would most likely win (on my estimate), majority would be touch and go.
Via KB, Green vote is 14%.
Link: https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/2084420894169207067?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
His 2PP estimate 53.2% LNP
So Green vote is holding up in Vic. Given it’s not spread state wide it will probably be lower in outer suburban areas but much higher in the inner heartland, probably in the high 20’s, if not the 30’s.
There will be some competitive 3-way contests in inner Melbourne, where O.N. probably won’t rate.
ie: Lab v Lib v Green
Will be an interesting election.
Snap leroy!
I’ve bookmarked that archive link you’ve provided earlier too. Thks.
What’s your read on this election?
testing
Interesting to see AEForecasts rate Albert Park with a plurality chance for the liberals, although it is yet to add freshwater.
Hi Nadia, my read is it will be hard for the government to win but its possible. More likely they won’t but I’m not calling anything. I gave up trying to predict elections years ago. Once there is a real campaign we will get a better idea.
Much of it just comes down to the Vic govt being tired and people wanting a change. State elections are pretty ireelevant anyway, the only game in town is federal.
Best thing for Labor is to lose Victoria closely enough they’re in good shape for the next election and people see how rubbish a LNP-ON joint govt is ahead of hte 2028 national election.
Carroll is -15, not +15, in Redbridge (which is still a very significant improvement over Allan!).
Redbridge – The primaries imply a Coalition majority. Would be very interesting to see a regional breakdown, which is teased by Kos Samaras with a One Nation primary of 27% in the outer suburbs.
Freshwater – Continues the shift away from One Nation towards the major parties. Agree with the quote from Kevin Bonham above – a Coalition majority is a possibility but not assured with the primaries that much closer than Redbridge. I don’t believe there was a regional breakdown with the last Freshwater, so I’m not optimistic one will be released for this one either.
my pick
Labor primary vote 33% on election day , be enough for majority government
seats around 49
Fair enough Leroy.
KB looks like he’s close to calling it, and Antony Green was interviewed by Michelle Grattan about a week ago and seemed to think it was just about over for Labor in Vic. WB has headlined todays thread with the comment ..”Victorian Labor still headed for defeat”.
Poster “arange” pretty much called it all over too, way way back in early June before all these recent polls and the leadership change. He’s a fairly accurate poster, but is no longer active here atm.
James Campbell (journo) said on skynews last week that the recent polling he’d seen had the ON vote preferencing around 90% to the LNP, though I’m not sure whether he was referring to state or Fed (and can’t find his intereview on the web).
George Hasanakos (Director Demos AU) was interviewed on this podcast, and suggested that the Vic Libs will benefit from both preference flows from ON & Labor in Victoria, for the obvious reason the Libs are currently topping the primaries.
If their vote sinks though, they’ll be in strife.
Was an interesting podcast, and the Vic analysis commences around the 9 minute mark
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1Ktui2MNXU
Labor has the advantage of incumbency, unless the Liberal Party shats themselves and Labor plays a blinder it’s hard seeing a majority Labor government, if the Liberals can find a way to fend off ON, Jess Wilson looks like becoming the next Victorian Premier.
Fairly pointless poll due to the timing. Partly taken before the leadership change FFS according to Kos:
” The fieldwork captures sentiment during the period before and the week of the leadership change”
I question the utility of even publishing it.
The Freshwater one is slightly more useful but you still expect people to need a little bit of time to see what the new premier says and does before changing course.
There is still no clear indication yet
If one nation candidates will be in all Labor seats, including safe- very safe labor seats
If one nation candidates are tying to be the opposition after 2026 Victorian state election , by competing for all of the lib/nats seats
One nation would be more chance in lib/nats seats including the safe-very safe lib/nats
This poll was the week before right up to the leadership change. So hard to tell. Redbridge made that caveat. Other Parties seem to have stabilised but Labor, on different polls, is all over the shop, 23% here, 25% on Freshwater today, a few others 26/27% and Newspoll a few days ago 28%. Seems people don’t know where to go with them, as the LNP are a rabble as well with infighting, disunity and 5 leadership changes. We haven’t had a poll with Carrol as Premier. So it is up to Carroll to show he is different to Allan. Carroll is from the Right of Labor, where generally the Party has been pretty hard left. So we might see some differences. Carroll though has to make that cut through.
The upper house is a major worry on those numbers. Labor would be lucky to get more than one seat in any region. A Coalition/ON majority would be locked in.
In fact, I wonder if Labor strategists will conclude the only hope of avoiding the nightmare scenario of a Coalition/ON upper house majority would be a few Liberal losses to preference harvesters, and therefore abandon the upper house reforms.
Labor will get the upper house reform done. Its already in upper house and has numbers.
Everyone in government knows that primary is too low and needs to get close to 30%. That’s why we had a leadership change.
I’m reserving judgment until I see more polling in a months time.
I’m not yet convinced of the one nation juggernaut.
I’m also not convinced Victorians will choose Jess Wilson to be the next premier
She is only 36 and has no ministerial experience.
Victoria
That is why the advantage of incumbency keeps Labor competitive.
The Victorian Upper House will look drastically different after this election.
With the new quota of 16.7%, Animals and Cannabis will most likely depart the Council.
The two indies (Somyurek & Deeming) will go too, although Somyurek has previously announced he won’t stand. Limbrick the Libertarian will struggle unless he can do some sort of preference deal.
Bourman (SFF) in Eastern Victoria, will probably be replaced by a O.N. candidate.
The Greens are just shy of an outright quota state-wide, but their vote will be concentrated in the 5 metro regions, or more particularly Northern Metro, Southern Metro & North-Eastern Metro Region.
They’re on track to jag 3 Councillors, just depends if they can break through in western metro (thinking they might take the Cannabis seat off Ettershank), and possibly even the Cannabis seat off Payne in South-Eastern Metro Region.
I agree with the comments that polls taken immediately after (and even during) that messy leadership change dominating the headlines is really quite meaningless. A leadership change will take a couple of weeks to sink in and people to start forming an opinion about the new leader or whether the party is changing direction etc, rather than the events around the leadership change itself being temporarily more prominent.
The fact is that the contest has been reset. We’ve moved from a leader that 96% of the electorate had a firm view on (overwhelmingly negative) to a leader that 57% of the electorate has not yet formed a view of. 1 in 4 voters who preferred Wilson over Allan as preferred premier have now moved into the “undecided” basket.
It’s a complete reset and that’s not going to translate into much of a change in party polling until people have started getting an idea what that means.
I also agree that Labor’s primary vote needs to get back to around 30% to be competitive to retain government. But I don’t think the polls taken last week really say anything whatsoever about how likely that is.
What I will say is that Labor probably have a much better chance of getting to 30% with a new leader that 57% of voters are yet to form a view about, and with 1 in 4 voters who preferred Wilson over Allan now moving to undecided, than they would have if they had continued with Jacinta Allan.
Doctors to go on strike at some of Victoria’s biggest public hospitals
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-04/victorian-doctors-strike-confirmed/106990980
“Victorian doctors will walk off the job next week at some of the state’s busiest hospitals as part of a pay dispute with the state government.
It will be the first protected industrial action at Victorian public hospitals for 20 years.
The Australian Medical Association Victoria (AMAV) said public hospital doctors will stop work at hospitals in Parkville and Melbourne’s CBD for several hours on August 13.”
Campaigning in a peri urban Labor held seat (outer East). Apart from a few houses flying Austrayan flags there is not much overt One Nation sentiment. Talking to those leaning ON is interesting in that the lean is really soft. Most are unable to articulate a reason other than a general “the gumnint should do something”.
Suspect the red flag will continue flying in the outer east.
Speaking of public hospitals.
Shout out to my local hospital. The Austin in Heidelberg.
They have done an amazing job of looking after several family members.
Literally saving the life of one recently, who has virtually made a full recovery.
Much gratitude.
One Nation Lower House candidate list probably would look like this.