Category: Victorian Politics

The Herald Sun has a Freshwater Strategy poll of state voting intention in Victoria, conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1062, showing the Coalition on 30%, up three on the last such poll a month ago; Labor on 27%, down one; One Nation on 20%, down three; and the Greens on 14%, up one. A respondent-allocated two-party preferred result has the Coalition leading 52-48 after a 50-50 result last time. Liberal leader Jess Wilson has a net approval rating of plus 18, up from plus 15, while Jacinta Allan is at minus 32, up from minus 33, while Wilson’s lead as preferred premier shifts from 46-30 to 47-31.

A theme of the further questions is the unpopularity of Allan and the advisability of Labor replacing her, including a tied two-party result in the event that Allan made way for “someone else”. Twenty-six per cent said a change would make them more likely to vote Labor compared with 10% for less likely. Prospective alternative leaders Ben Carroll and Gabrielle Williams both recorded minus four net approval ratings, with 19% saying they would prefer Carroll be leader and 10% Williams, the rest presumably favouring Allan or indifferent.

Two new Victorian state polls:

• The Financial Review reports a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll showing One Nation, which was not a response option in the last such poll in December, at 24%, with Labor down six to 25%, the Coalition down 12 to 28% and the Greens up one to 13%. Two-party preferred results based on respondent-allocated preferences show the Coalition with a 52-48 lead over Labor and Labor with a 53-47 lead over the Coalition. The poll was conducted February 18 to 27 from a sample of 2165.

• The Herald Sun has a Freshwater Strategy poll of Victorian state voting intention showing Labor on 28%, the Coalition on 27%, One Nation on 23% and the Greens on 13%. Labor and the Coalition are tied on a two-party preferred measure that I presume is based on respondent-allocated preferences. Jacinta Allan records a minus 33 net approval rating compared with plus 15 for Liberal leader Jess Wilson, who holds a 46% to 30% lead over Allan on preferred premier. Thirty-six per cent said the Liberal leadership change in November made them more likely to vote Coalition compared with 14% for less likely and 44% for no difference. Seventy-four per cent registered support for a royal commission into alleged criminal infiltration and corruption within the CFMEU, with only 7% opposed. The poll was conducted February 19 to 23 from a sample of 1030.

Also from Victoria:

• May 2 has been set as the date for the Nepean by-election, arising from the resignation of former Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth. A Liberal preselection vote last week was won by Mornington Peninsula Shire mayor Anthony Marsh. Cameron McCullough of the Mornington Peninsula News reports Marsh won the preselection ballot on the first round with 10 out of 19 votes, against four for former Hastings candidate Briony Camp, three for Frankston mayor and federal Dunkley candidate Nathan Conroy, and two for Sorrento real estate agent David Burgess. The Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column notes Marsh’s how-to-vote card at the 2020 council election directed voters to put the Liberal candidates last. One Nation’s candidate is Darren Hercus, whom the Herald Sun reports is a civil engineer and owner of a Dromana floor and roof truss manufacturing plant. Former Liberal member Peter Angelico will run for the Libertarian Party. Labor will presumably not bother.

• The Australian reports Andrew Lethlean, the Bendigo publican who came close to pulling off an extraordinary feat in winning the federal seat of Bendigo for the Nationals last May, looks assured of being the party’s candidate against Jacinta Allan in Bendigo East.

• Tim Read, who has held Brunswick for the Greens since 2018, has announced he will not contest the November election, having been diagnosed in October with metastatic cancer.

• One of a number of SMS polls published last week by Roy Morgan gauged Victorian state voting intention, and it had One Nation leading the field with 26.5%, with Labor on 25.5%, the Coalition on 21.5% and the Greens on 13%. Three two-party results were provided, putting Labor 52-48 ahead of the Coalition and 52.5-47.5 ahead of One Nation, with the Coalition leading One Nation 56-44. The poll was conducted February 13 to 16 from a sample of 2462.

The Age today brings the regular bi-monthly Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic, combining 1000 responses from the last two monthly national polls. The result is markedly different from last week’s DemosAU poll in having One Nation, who had not previously been broken out from “others”, at a modest 11%, but similar in having the Coalition down nine points from November-December to 30%. DemosAU had One Nation more in line with the recent trend of federal polling at 21%, with the Coalition down eight on its October poll to 29%. Labor is holding steady at 28%, compared with a three-point drop from DemosAU to 23%, while the Greens are steady on 12%. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make it around 51-49 in favour of Labor. Liberal leader Jess Wilson nonetheless records a net personal rating of plus 14, up three from last time, and leads Jacinta Allan 39-20 as preferred premier, out from 41-24. Allan’s already poor rating is down five to minus 37.

The Herald Sun has a DemosAU/Premier National state voting intention poll for Victoria, providing a new outlet for the all-encompassing One Nation upheaval. After neglecting to include the party as a response option in its October poll, the latest result has it at 21%, within striking distance of Labor on 23% (down three from October), with the Coalition down eight to 29%. The Greens are steady on 15%, while an “others” category that now has One Nation broken out from it is down ten to 12%. The pollster provides a two-party preferred result that puts the Coalition ahead 53-47, out from 51-49, according to a formula that gives them 75% of One Nation, 10% of Greens and 55% of other preferences.

Jacinta Allan was rated positively by 16%, neutrally by 31% and negatively by 53%, while Jess Wilson respectively scores 27%, 49% and 24%. Wilson leads 40-31 on preferred premier, little different from Brad Battin’s 40-32 lead in the October poll. A question on upper house voting intention, for which 12% were uncommitted, has One Nation shading Labor by 20% to 19%, with the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 14%, Legalise Cannabis on 5% and Animal Justice on 4%. The poll distinctively found crime and violence rated the most important issue by 30%, shading the usual front-runner cost of living at 29%, followed by housing affordability on 12%. The poll was conducted February 1 to 10 from a sample of 1274.

The Age reports the bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll of Victorian state voting intention has Labor on 28% (down two), the Coalition on 39% (up six) and the Greens on 12% (steady), with the Coalition leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences. As usual, this involved a sample of 1100 combining the Victorian samples from the pollster’s two regular monthly national surveys, which in this case complicates matters since it means the first half was conducted before the November 18 Liberal leadership change and the second half after. While the change is well within the margin of error, the report says the Coalition in fact did better in the first part of the period than the second, at 39% and 37% respectively.

Jess Wilson records a net approval rating of plus 11, presumably encompassing only the latter part of the survey, which is “the best by any Liberal leader since Resolve started polling in 2021”. Jacinta Allan is at minus 32, while Wilson leads by 41-24 as preferred premier, compared with a 33-27 lead for Brad Battin two months ago.

UPDATE (RedBridge Group/Accent Research): Now a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll for the Financial Review records a tie on two-party preferred, after the pollster’s October result had Labor leading 52-48. The primary votes are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 40% (up three), Greens 12% (down one), “minor left” 2%, “minor right” 4%, independents 6% and others 5%. Jacinta Allan records a 20% combined good and very good rating, 14% neither and 60% poor and very poor, while Jess Wilson is on 25% positive, 23% neutral and 22% negative. The poll was conducted from November 24 (a week after the Liberal leadership change) to December 8 from a sample of 1021. Extensive breakdowns are featured in the accompanying release.

Other Victorian electoral news:

• This site now boasts a Victorian state election poll aggregate, which currently credits Labor with a two-party lead of 50.3-49.7. This uses a bias-adjustment measure in which Newspoll serves as the centre of gravity, but apart from DemosAU’s Labor primary vote being inflated by a bit over two points, the adjustments are fairly modest. A permanent link can be accessed at the top of the sidebar.

• A Freshwater Strategy poll for the Herald Sun, conducted from November 21 to 24 from a sample of 1220 (Wilson became leader on November 18), had a 50-50 result on two-party preferred, with the Coalition on 37%, Labor on 30% and the Greens on 15%. Personal ratings (presumably favourable minus unfavourable, though neutral was a response option) were minus 32 for Jacinta Allan, plus 15 for Jess Wilson and plus 10 for Brad Battin, with Wilson leading Battin 47-31 as preferred premier. Thirty-three per cent said the change made them more likely to vote Liberal, 11% less likely, and 50% neither. Fifty-four per cent felt the change would improve the Coalition’s prospects, with 18% disagreeing and 26% doing neither. Sixty-two per cent professed awareness of the Liberal leadership change, with 32% unaware (always instructive in these cases is the gender gap, with 36% of women and 27% of men conceding ignorance).

• A Liberal preselection for Malvern, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of former party leader Michael O’Brien, was held a fortnight ago and won by Amelia Hamer, a former staffer to then Financial Services Minister Jane Hume and more recently director of strategy for financial technology start-up Airwallex and unsuccessful candidate for Kooyong at the May federal election. Daniella White of The Age reports Hamer, whose backers included Jeff Kennett, scored a surprisingly clear first-round win the ballot with 118 votes to 51 for Jacqueline Blackwell, who led a group that campaigned against prolonged school closures during the pandemic, and had determined backing from Josh Frydenberg. Also in the field were Lana Collaris, a barrister, with 31 votes, and Xavier Boffa, executive director of the Samuel Griffith Society, with 13.

• Annika Smethurst of The Age reports a new outfit called The West party will field candidates in western Melbourne, campaigning on neglect of its fast-growing suburbs. The principal of the outfit is Paul Hopper, who will again run in Werribee after polling 5.9% there as an independent at the February by-election. Hopper has been party to a High Court challenge against exemptions to campaign spending caps for the major parties’ “nominated entities”. Also identified as candidates are Newport Traders Association president Gill Gannon in Williamstown; Luan Walker, a Vietnamese-born former Liberal candidate, in St Albans; and for the Legislative Council, Joe Garra, an obstetrician who polled 11.2% as an independent in Werribee in 2018, and former Wyndham councillor Sahana Ramesh.

The Australian has a Victorian state Newspoll conducted hot on the heels (possibly a little too hot) of the Liberals’ leadership change on Tuesday, with 1030 respondents surveyed between Tuesday and Thursday. The poll credits the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49, in line with recent results from other pollsters but a significant shift on the 53-47 Labor lead recorded at the last Victorian state Newspoll in June. The primary votes are Labor 28% (down seven), Coalition 36% (up one) and Greens 14% (up two). Jacinta Allan records diabolical personal ratings of 26% approval (down four) and 68% disapproval (up seven), while Jess Wilson debuts at 32% and 31%, and holds a 47-33 lead as preferred premier. The poll found respondents deeply concerned about housing (82% “worried”), law and order (81%), state debt (76%) and hospitals (69%). Law and order was rated most important of the four at 42%, with 23% opting for housing, 16% for state debt and 14% for hospitals.