Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 31, Greens 11 in Victoria

A final Victorian state poll for the year finds Labor still dominant, though a little less so than in the poll two months previously.

Bit late to the party with this one, but The Age last Saturday published the regular bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll combining results from two sets of the pollster’s national polling. The poll had Labor on 37% of the primary vote, down two from the September-October result, with the Coalition down one to 31% and the Greens down one to 11%, while a generic independents category was up four to 14%. I would roughly estimate that to be between 56-44 and 57-43 in favour of Labor, but the estimate gets rougher as the independent and small party share gets higher (and it should as usual be noted that Resolve Strategic has become unusually strong for Labor in recent times). Jacinta Allan’s lead over John Pesutto narrowed from a debut result of 38-19 in the last poll to 34-22. The overall sample for the poll was 1042.

One other bit of electoral news since the last Victorian post was the Liberals’ selection of Richard Welch, founder of motion-tracking sports technology firm PitchVision, to fill the Legislative Council vacancy in North-Eastern Metropolitan region created by the resignation of Matthew Bach. Bach won a preselection vote on December 3 ahead of a field of nine that included former Ripon MP Louise Staley, whom The Australian reports was the third candidate eliminated, and former Forest Hill MP Neil Angus, both of whom lost their seats in 2022 after an unfavourable redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

13 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 31, Greens 11 in Victoria”


    More than two-thirds of Victorian voters say they support a push by the state’s public servants for more flexible work arrangements and the right to work from home, as key unions ramp up industrial action in the lead-up to Christmas.

    The findings are contained in a survey by Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for The Age, which also found 54 per cent of voters backed a 20 per cent pay increase for the state’s public sector workforce over four years.

    The poll asked Victorian voters whether they supported improvements in pay and conditions that are part of a claim lodged by the Victorian branch of the Community and Public Sector Union (CPSU).

    The CPSU is also seeking a formal pilot for a four-day work week on full pay for employees in positions where achievable. That proposal was backed by 47 per cent of respondents, compared to 31 per cent who opposed the idea.

    The union’s claim for an additional week of annual leave for workers was supported by 49 per cent of the 1093 Victorian voters surveyed in November and December.

  2. Well it appears that Victoria is literally the Massachussetts of the Antipodes. There seems to be no route to a Liberal victory at state level in the forseeable future.

    How Jacinta Allan deals with a Dutton federal government though will be fascinating. It could well be the route to her eventual undoing.

  3. A Dutton federal government, if it were to happen, would only further damage the Liberal’s standing in Victoria and entrench the state government.

  4. The opposition in Victoria are not fit for Government. Needed a wipeout like WA libs to concentrate on serious reform. The media will be covering Deeming over the next year via the courts massive negative publicity for the state Opposition.Own goal.

  5. Between 56-57%! For a fourth term government that is, according to the Independent Always media, seriously on the nose and riddled with corruption, an extraordinary and sustained result.

    How bad must the Libs be?

    Matthew Guy will be back in charge of the Libs very soon if that doesn’t change soon!

    Surely there is a mercy rule for opposition leaders?

    Deeming will suck up all the media interest next year, and it won’t help the LNP in Victoria. If I didn’t loathe them so much I would almost feel sorry for them.

    And should Dutton win federally, which I highly doubt, it will increase the ALP vote in Victoria.

    Meanwhile SMR still do not exist.

  6. I’m old enough to remember when Labor was unelectable in Victoria. Throughout the 60s and 70s the Liberals didn’t even need the Nationals, they just governed alone with huge (or at least comfortable) majorities. Until the 1980s no Labor government in history had even gone full term, let alone be re-elected.

    The turnaround in a few short decades just beggars belief.

  7. @EightES

    Yeah, it is pretty impressive. Although I gather the Liberals were quite salty about Labor supporting Country Party leader Albert Dunstan as Premier from 1935-45 and ruled from 1955-1982 with this in mind.

    The Liberals only came close to losing that majority in 1979 where they held on by 1 seat, then were swept away at the next election in 1982.

    I imagine a big reason for this is Jeff Kennett’s rule. He ran a very divisive Thatcherist regime and was seemingly happy to be an enemy of voters than a friend, which backfired big time in 1999. And the Victorian Liberals have been unable to rebuild themselves since then. Ted Baillieu wasn’t strong enough for the task, and it seems neither does John Pesutto or Matthew Guy.

  8. The Victorian Liberals used to be more socially progressive than say Queensland and WA Labor, and Victoria was the “jewel in the Liberal crown” when the Liberals were predominantly about economic issues, not culture war issues.

    Kennett lost government but didn’t make the Vic Libs unelectable in Victoria, seeing as Ted Bailieu was able to get in after the Bracks/Brumby government, Ted being very much that old fashioned establishment Liberal.

    No, what made the Vic Libs unelectable in Victoria was the hard right turn into right wing culture war bullshit that Victorians don’t like or trust. Matthew Guy, Peter Dutton, “African gangs” etc.

    That the Vic Libs and their media allies thought Dan Andrews was less trusted by Victorians than Lobster Guy was insane. Bailieu and Napthine lost government in one term but Guy got them landslided, and they went back to him.

    Pesutto was the right first step in theory, but the Vic Libs have continued to prove that whoever is leader, the religious right nutbags are never far away from setting Vic Lib policy and the electorate won’t have that.

  9. Melbourne Mammoth @ 10.45am
    The only flaw in your statement regarding how Jacinta Allen will deal with a Dutton Federal Government is the fact that the CLP need to win seats in Victoria if they hope to form a Federal Government.
    Current polling results indicate that the seats of Deakin (0.19%), Menzies (0.68%) and Casey (1.48%) are very vulnerable to changing from the CLP to the ALP.
    Furthermore, Goldstein & Kooyong will be difficult to regain from the current Independent members.

  10. @Kirksdale

    That’s right. A few weeks ago, last level crossing in Cranbourne got removed. At the moment 3 level crossings in Pakenham are being removed, replaced by skyrail and brand new stations being built at Pakenham and Pakenham East. I live next to Deer Park station in the west, that just have works wrapped up and it looks and functions 10 x better than what it was.

    This is happening across the suburbs, it is all local and it is all good politics. In the sandbelt Frankston line, you have Parkdale being done up, Mordialloc early works have started, stabling siding in Kananook getting an extension and Frankston station has new car parks being built right as we speak. It is nuts.

  11. The Liberals` dominance in Victoria between 1955 and 1972 was largely due to DLP preferences. Without the split or with the split falling apart earlier (e.g. had Calwell won in 1961 and had a similar effect to Whitlam on the DLP vote), the ALP would have been significantly more competitive. The ALP might have been able to gain a majority in the Legislative Council in its 1955 election if the split had not occurred.

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