I’ve been too busy in the last few days to give the site the attention it deserves, and in particularly to have anything to offer about the by-election that is sadly upon us in the marginal Labor seat of Dunkley in Melbourne’s south-east. The Age had a Resolve Strategic poll for Victoria on Saturday that escaped my notice at the time and which I’ll finally do a post on later today. For now, I offer a perfunctory account of two recent federal results:
• The latest Essential Research poll is all but unchanged on last fortnight, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens all steady on 34%, 31% and 13%, One Nation down a point to 6%, and undecided down a point to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor up a point to 49% and the Coalition down one to 46%. Also included in the poll are monthly leaders’ favourability ratings, where respondents are asked to rate their performance on a scale of one to ten, which find Anthony Albanese still in decline though at a slower rate than last month, and Peter Dutton taking a downward turn after a relatively strong result last month. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1102.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, with Labor down two on the primary vote to 30.5%, the Coalition down half 37%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 14% and One Nation steady on 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1719.
• Nine Newspapers had further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll on Sunday regarding immigration, which found 62% believe current levels are too high, 23% about right and 3% too low. Fifty-seven per cent felt the government was handling immigration in an “unplanned and unmanaged way”, with only 16% favouring the “carefully planned and managed” alternative. The poll predated the government’s announcement of its immigration strategy on Monday.
I don’t see how democracy is negatively affected in any meaningful way by requiring parties to have 1500 members to register. These days parties can recruit by the internet and can offer free membership; if a party can’t find 1500 in the whole of Australia on that basis it’s clearly not going to be competitive.
Of course participation is a right but groups unable to reach the 1500 member target can participate in many other ways. They can endorse independent candidates. They can endorse non-party Senate groups (which are disadvantaged electorally, but since a party unable to get 1500 members has no hope of election anyway, that doesn’t matter in their case). They can recommend preferences between parties that are registered and they can comment on the election. And they can, if they want to, join existing parties and influence their direction.
Player One says:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 7:11 pm
frednk @ #726 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 6:53 pm
Player One
Perhaps you would be so kind as to point to the document that mentions CCS ( which I assume is Carbon Capture and Storage).
https://aemo.com.au/consultations/current-and-closed-consultations/draft-2024-isp-consultation
https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem-consultations/2023/draft-2024-isp-consultation/supporting-materials/draft-2024-isp-generation-and-storage-outlook.zip?la=en
Same data different link. I have downloaded the files ( and as I posed they are impressive), it looks as if you have just posted shit without bothering. A link to one pdf that mentions CCS, that is all I ask.
At least Bolt acknowledges he is a right wing loon.
P1,
Ahh, but the link provided by frednk and Simon Holmes a Court: https://aemo.com.au/consultations/current-and-closed-consultations/draft-2024-isp-consultation
leads to a PDF document that loads happily in a web browser.
The link you provided: https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem-consultations/2023/draft-2024-isp-consultation/supporting-materials/draft-2024-isp-generation-and-storage-outlook.zip?la=en
goes to computer says “unsafe”.
Can you explain why the document that supports your POV that the only way the AEMO modelling works if it relies heavily on CCS is marked as “unsafe” to download?
Also, given it is a public document, why don’t you just put the important bits here, to support your case that the greatest champion of the Teals, who you imply you support, is wRONg on his interpretation of the AEMO data?
michaelsays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 7:58 pm
Not much focus here on the Higgins case today. I wonder why. Just read about today’s events. Lawyers are expensive of course, and you have to sell a lot to settle things.
_____________________
I wouldn’t trust Sharaz as far as I could spit.
Justice Lee looks to have the same opinion.
Taylormade @ #756 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 8:57 pm
The michael-Taylormade Mutual Admiration Society is in session. 🙂
Love your work exposing the Shady One, D & M.
frednk
Yep!
And to be given a link where “computer says no” suggests incompetence on the party wanting to supply the information, or a wish that no one can actually see the evidence.
Any way, I have requested that P1 puts the text form the insane document on the website, so we can all read it, and make our own judgements.
C@t
😀
Ven @ #735 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 7:21 pm
It’s a circular argument created to advantage the real ‘elites’ in society. You stoke resentment in the poor and underprivileged against the ‘woke politically correct elites’, not telling them that you are, in fact, the real elites and ‘bad and evil people’, so that it will all go downhill and the disadvantaged will end up resenting those whose only wish is to help THEM. Then the ‘bad and evil people’ come along afterwards to claim their rewards, being a servile Precariat who are willing to work for peanuts and dance to the organ grinder’s tune. Simples!
And to be given a link where “computer says no” suggests incompetence on the party wanting to supply the information, or a wish that no one can actually see the evidence.
Methinks they only want you to see evidence of evidence and not any actual evidence, so they can point to said ‘evidence’ and say, there! I produced evidence! 😉
Player One
I have to apologize.
It is found in the file set
https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem-consultations/2023/draft-2024-isp-consultation/supporting-materials/draft-2024-isp-generation-and-storage-outlook.zip?la=en
In the file “2024 Draft ISP results workbook -Step Changes.”
Under the tab comparisons.
And yes the gas industry is believing in 2040 they will cancel physics and CCS will become as thing.
Kevin B,
Thank you for saying this far more eloquently than I ever possibly could.
My take: If you issue is so niche or so local that you cannot convince 1500 people to sign up, then perhaps you should be looking at the level of your local council to pursue election to prosecute whatever your bespoke issue may be.
And if it does not fit into your local council area, then you are into necrophilia, sadism and bestiality.
Those of you who got this joke are laughing, the rest of you can look it up when you get home. (Thank you Tom Lehrer.)
And please, re-read what Kevin said – there are many ways you can influence politics – we do not all need our own, bespoke, political party!
And yes the gas industry is believing in 2040 they will cancel physics and CCS will become as thing.
And Donald Trump will deliver ‘Infrastructure Week’ and a Health policy by then as well. 😐
Taylormadesays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 8:57 pm
michaelsays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 7:58 pm
Not much focus here on the Higgins case today. I wonder why. Just read about today’s events. Lawyers are expensive of course, and you have to sell a lot to settle things.
_____________________
I wouldn’t trust Sharaz as far as I could spit.
Justice Lee looks to have the same opinion.
————————————————————————
Since it is channel 10 that is being sued and not Sharaz how is that relevant to the judges opinion. If Sharaz looks like anyone it is Bruce not anyone from channel 10 though. Sharaz worked as a Senior Media Advisor for the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet under Scott Morrison. Before that he had worked for Sky News and Channel 7 (cash cow). He did work for some less dodgy companies like SBS and WIN too. Though having worked for Morrison, Sky and Channel 7. I wouldn’t blame the judge thinking he could be dodgy.
They expect an insignificant increase in demand side participation. This I strongly disagree with as a large part of the demand increase will be cars and I believe most will be charged at home and they can easily participate in demand side participation as most only need to be topped up at night.
As to the sop to the gas industry. It really isn’t a large part of the story, the total generation is 482 ( I assume TWh) the gas dream is 78.
Why discredit your report like that?
frednk
I will let you know in a week or so whether P1’s assumptions are correct.
When you have to look for your data (to support you POV that CCS are instrumental in the final graph), in a workbook tab far removed from the main workbook, with said data incorporated into a graph produced by the main workbook, with a complex equation generating the graph, then I would suggest you are cherrypicking to obfuscate.
So P1, how about you produce your graph, with a couple of pages to explain your assumptions, showing that it is only CCS that leads to the graph shown in Simon Holmes a Court’s tweet?
Meanwhile, I will work on my graph and analysis.
I am setting myself a deadline of three weeks, because, I have kids and grand kids, and “’tis the season”, and also, the AEMO report is not going anywhere any time soon, so a fast response is not needed. An accurate response is more helpful for those who need to make up their minds.
I’ll be over here with the popcorn. 😀
The Age 15/12
Wilkinson: “My preference was for Ms Higgins to be the main conduit.”
But Lee will draw his own conclusions from the absence of Sharaz. He remains an uncomfortable topic for the media defendants.
_____________________
Anyone care to elaborate on why he is such an ‘uncomfortable topic’ for Wilkinson and channel 10.
Taylormadesays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 9:50 pm
The Age 15/12
Wilkinson: “My preference was for Ms Higgins to be the main conduit.”
But Lee will draw his own conclusions from the absence of Sharaz. He remains an uncomfortable topic for the media defendants.
_____________________
Anyone care to elaborate on why he is such an ‘uncomfortable topic’ for Wilkinson and channel 10.
——————————————————————–
I have no idea. He wasn’t her boyfriend at the time of the rape. So as far as the truth defence goes on whether she was raped or not that night he was irrelevant. She told others she had been raped well before Sharaz became her boyfriend. So he also has no role in her making those allegations in the first place. The only role he may have played was in discussions with her on whether she should go to the media or not with her allegations. This is only peripheral stuff anyway. As the main element of the Channel 10 truth defence is that they contend that the rape in that office did occur. Sharaz can give no useful testimony on that though as he only came into her life well after that event.
“I don’t see how democracy is negatively affected in any meaningful way by requiring parties to have 1500 members to register. These days parties can recruit by the internet and can offer free membership; if a party can’t find 1500 in the whole of Australia on that basis it’s clearly not going to be competitive.
Of course participation is a right but groups unable to reach the 1500 member target can participate in many other ways. They can endorse independent candidates. They can endorse non-party Senate groups (which are disadvantaged electorally, but since a party unable to get 1500 members has no hope of election anyway, that doesn’t matter in their case). They can recommend preferences between parties that are registered and they can comment on the election. And they can, if they want to, join existing parties and influence their direction.”
It is demanding a level of time and organisation, and I’d argue funding, possibly lawyers, that large portions of our society do not have time or resources for. It is an unnecessary and unhelpful (except to established parties) hurdle to a party brand. Parties aren’t a great aspect of democracy, whipped votes are not a shining testament to the quality of our representatives. Just listen to the rest is politics guys twist themselves into knots defending member of parliament voting for disgusting things, because parties.
But parties are needed for stable govt and it is important to have and build a brand. That is before you take into account all the aspects of the system designed to benefit parties.
Other than defending big parties and saving paper what is lost if the Wagga Wagga Redheads Against Hair Bleaching, a single issue party formed by 15 people in a single suburb of Wagga Wagga, register as a party, and run one of their members under their brand in every election losing their deposit.
Nothing is lost, in fact you’ve gained 15 people engaging in our democracy in a real way that has meaning to them, without upsetting the elites and the ‘real’ parties. One might begin to think the real risk is that they don’t lose their deposit, or goddess forbid, maybe they get a member elected.
It might well be seen as contradictory but I’d be 1000% in favour of forcing every candidate to be required to get 1500 signatures from voters registered in the electorate before they could be nominated, because while that is a hurdle it forces and evidences a genuine connection with the electorate. The 1500 members of a party to earn a brand is just an unnecessary barrier to entry and frankly a form of elitism. The 1500 local signatures probably wouldn’t be a hurdle for the big parties so their elites and camp followers can relax a little, and getting those 1500 signatures is likely to be the biggest effort the relevant major party has ever put into the electorate. No doubt the Wagga Wagga Redheads Against Hair Bleaching don’t get on the ballot most elections, but they weren’t arbitrarily excluded by some elites who didn’t think they deserved to have a party because that was only for the worthy.
Denying party status, a brand, to a group is just killing competition before it can grow.
Anyway this is the wrong place and the wrong audience for this kind of discussion. Have a great weekend.
Douglas and Milko
Here is the email to make a comment on the draft report.
Submissions on the Draft 2024 ISP are due to ISP@AEMO.com.au by 16 February 2024
I have made two points:
1) The gas industry is unlikely to cancel basic chemistry in 2040 and including CCS in the data discredits the report.
2) Not enough increase in DSP as home car charging can be controlled.
Douglas and Milko
The relevant data is in a spreadsheet with formulas. If you have the time it is very easy to look at and play with. I will be interested in your conclusions.
Mavis, yesterdays LNL was a replay of an August episode on Rupert – you might be interested.
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/latenightlive/meet-young-rupert-murdoch-the-radical-lefty/103192888
Taylormade says:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 9:50 pm
The Age 15/12
Wilkinson: “My preference was for Ms Higgins to be the main conduit.”
But Lee will draw his own conclusions from the absence of Sharaz. He remains an uncomfortable topic for the media defendants.
_____________________
Anyone care to elaborate on why he is such an ‘uncomfortable topic’ for Wilkinson and channel 10.
__________________________________________________
Lee will draw no conclusions at all. It would be quite improper. And the one thing that has struck me about this case in the bits I have watched is that Lee, more than anything else wants to make this case as appeal proof as possible, whatever he decides. He has been a stickler for process and transparency.
If neither the plaintiff nor the defendants see any value in calling Mr Sharaz then the judge will draw the only conclusion possible – which is that Mr Sharaz has no evidence that will enable the judge to better decide the case.
There is too much rubbish from people who are both totally ignorant of the legal process and who are politically invested in a particular outcome.
Rupert Murdoch is probably the best known media mogul in the Western world. The operations of his media empire, his legal and family dramas and his recent wedding cancellations make headlines. Less is known about the era that shaped young Rupert, the radical who espoused socialism, kept a bust of Lenin in his uni accommodation and then went on to build his empire from 1950s Adelaide.
———————————————————————————
Sounds like a bit of a Tankie. Hasn’t changed much then. Trump became President thanks to the combined efforts of Putin and Murdoch. When the two most evil men on the planet are working together any evil is possible.
Douglas and Milko @ #753 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 8:57 pm
Are you people serious? You think I somehow hacked the AEMO site and planted my own data on it?
JUST DOWNLOAD AEMO’S DATA AND LOOK AT IT.
Un-fucking-believable 🙁
As far as memorial services go I think the one held for Humphries today ticked most of the boxes. While I don’t know the basis of his family’s opposition to Wilkins acting as MC, I thought he did a good job. I was surprised that there were so many vacant seats in the Concert Hall; had it been held in his home town, I think it would’ve been packed, though apparently he was miffed after the “Barry” award was given the kibosh. I note that Howard & his wife we in attendance, sitting next to Turnbull & his wife. He was certainly a talented man, and there’s a wealth of material available on YouTube & other sites. In my view, here are some of his best moments:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0Bjuy5V1Xo
frednk @ #761 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 9:14 pm
Well, thanks for that.
TPOFsays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 10:16 pm
Taylormade says:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 9:50 pm
The Age 15/12
Wilkinson: “My preference was for Ms Higgins to be the main conduit.”
But Lee will draw his own conclusions from the absence of Sharaz. He remains an uncomfortable topic for the media defendants.
——————————————————–
What people forget too. If Lehrmann loses this case it doesn’t take him off the street and make women safer. Only the Toowoomba case if he is found guilty has potential to take him off the street.
What goes around comes aroundsays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 10:27 pm
TPOFsays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 10:16 pm
Taylormade says:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 9:50 pm
The Age 15/12
Wilkinson: “My preference was for Ms Higgins to be the main conduit.”
But Lee will draw his own conclusions from the absence of Sharaz. He remains an uncomfortable topic for the media defendants.
——————————————————–
What people forget too. If Lehrmann loses this case it doesn’t take him off the street and make women safer. Only the Toowoomba case if he is found guilty has potential to take him off the street.
——————————————————————————-
“Potential” not sure any man has yet gone to jail for stealthing without a long history of convictions for sexual assaults. I am not saying stealthing is not rape or sexual assault.
Steelydansays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 10:44 pm
What goes around comes aroundsays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 10:27 pm
TPOFsays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 10:16 pm
Taylormade says:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 9:50 pm
The Age 15/12
Wilkinson: “My preference was for Ms Higgins to be the main conduit.”
But Lee will draw his own conclusions from the absence of Sharaz. He remains an uncomfortable topic for the media defendants.
——————————————————–
What people forget too. If Lehrmann loses this case it doesn’t take him off the street and make women safer. Only the Toowoomba case if he is found guilty has potential to take him off the street.
——————————————————————————-
“Potential” not sure any man has yet gone to jail for stealthing without a long history of convictions for sexual assaults. I am not saying stealthing is not rape or sexual assault.
————————————————————————
Fair enough. I was more commenting on how civil defamation cases that seem to establish that someone did something very bad. Don’t actually end up making anyone safer as that person is not locked away due to civil findings. So for instance the BRS case established at least to the balance of probabilities he was a Walter Kurtz like character. Yet knowing that he still freely walks the streets which is scary. Similarly if this case finds that Channel 10 truth defence is in the balance of probability true. He will still be able to wonder pubs and clubs late at night. Which is also scary.
As far as stealthing goes i would be crazy to argue with someone called Steely Dan on that issue, you would have a home ground advantage there, methinks.
Quote: “You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative”
― William S. Burroughs, Naked Lunch
That moron gronk that killed five people by not taking his insulin just got bail, because he’s got money and a KC defending him, f***ing bastard…
The families of the victims looked absolutely livid on ABC news
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/melbourne/article-12866609/daylesford-crash-bill-swale-bail.html
Rex Douglassays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 5:11 pm
We wait with bated breath for Marles/Labor to accept deployment orders to the ME from the US and confirm Australia has ceded Defense sovereignty to them.
”
Already happened. US asked Australia to send Aircraft Carrier in and around Iranian waters…
—–
Correct, defence sovereignty ceded from 2011.
When Bill Shorten visited the US embassy in 2009, during the Rudd government, to give them his credentials as a coming Labor PM, we could see ( maybe we couldn’t, Wikileaks, Crikey, Assange wrote about it in 2011) that Shorten, and therefore Labor policy is to support the US first over the needs of Australian children, adults, Australian citizens.
Now why did he need to speak to US embassy staff and have his message relayed back to the US President? Is that treason?
Crikey
https://www.crikey.com.au › wikil…
WikiLeaks: Shorten seeks US approval for prime ministership
30 Aug 2011 — A confidential cable leaked today by WikiLeaks from the US consulate … Shorten presenting his Prime Ministerial credentials to the US Consul …
From this we can see why Assange is still in jail.
We could also ask why the LNP never permitted US troops on Australian soil but the Gillard Labor government did:
Australian Broadcasting Corporation
http://www.abc.net.au
Gillard, Obama detail US troop deployment
16 Nov 2011 — Up to 2,500 US Marines will be stationed in Australia by 2017 under a new agreement announced by Prime Minister Julia Gillard and US president …
Since then this current Federal Labor government has chosen to base US planes at Tindal, near Darwin, purchased the wasteful AUKUS, which many past Liberal ( and likely Labor ) MPs, mates and donors will benefit from consulting contracts, and again send ships to the Middle East.
Labor is obsessed with supporting the US military- financially as well as with personnel. And seen as aggressive towards our major trading partner, China, without which our finances would be dire.
Can’t blame the LNP, it is a Labor government now. Who can’t find the money for cost of living support, or more than one large water bombing aircraft as more widely spread fires increase, global warming only given token support, housing is at the back of the queue as is violence against women and children. Not Labor’s, the party Australians still feel has empathy for those in need, policy any more.
How much longer will they trick voters?
An early good morning all. (I’m feeling a lot better now but covid is still doing funny things to my sleep.)
We already know the Morrison government flooded Australia with low paid foreign workers. This article chronicles how.
Covid temporary visa categories were used to justify over 250,000 “temporary” low skilled workers, who did not even need english skills, who could simply keep reapplying for visas. When Labor closed the loophole, 25,000 reapplied in 2 days.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/immigration/2023/12/16/the-morrison-era-visa-that-flooded-the-immigration-system
So nearly half of the 600,000 foreign “students” here since 2021 did no study. There was never a better time to be a dodgy immigration agent.
davo @ #782 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 11:20 pm
He should enjoy his freedom while he can.
He is an obvious case for bail given his lack of criminal history and the question of whether this is an avoidable or unavoidable accident.
A case of some similarity
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-22/epilepsy-group-urges-change-after-perth-crash-driver-jailed/7652826#
New thread.
Jon Cooper reposted CALL TO ACTIVISM
@CalltoActivism
MAJOR BREAKING: Highly confidential information relating to Russia went MISSING under Trump.
A binder containing highly classified information contained raw intelligence the US and its NATO allies collected on Russians and Russian agents is MISSING.
Why is this a big deal?
The documents included sources and methods that informed the US government’s assessment that Putin sought to help Trump win the 2016 election, per CNN.
The missing documents raise alarms among intelligence officials who fear the U.S’s closely guarded national security secrets have been exposed.
Who knew that the Morrison government were a bunch of charlatans who used Orwellian language and pea and thimble tricks, dodgy legislation, pork barreling, shoveling taxpayers’ money to mates, and a clown PM doing bread and circus acts in order to distract to disguise their craven venality?
Oh, and memefying, such as we are seeing @ 1.05am from Irene who seems to be working out of the Anti Labor stenographer pool at Whitestone Strategies for the Liberal Party.
If you look closely at what she has presented as a bunch of Alternative Facts about Bill Shorten, in 2011 apparently he was pitching to be Prime Minister, not to the Australian people, because Labor were already in power, there was no election on the horizon, and Julia Gillard and Anthony Albanese were #1 and 2.
So I clicked on the Crikey link that Irene put up to prove her bona fides and provide evidence for her claims about Bill Shorten, and all it did was take me to the Crikey home page. Same with the ABC ‘link’. Plus a reference to a couple of headlines, with no other context, from 2011. But they create an impression.
And serve as a launching pad for an excoriating final paragraph that condemns the current Labor government in no uncertain terms and by spewing a shedload of garbage about them such as: Who can’t find the money for cost of living support, or more than one large water bombing aircraft as more widely spread fires increase, global warming only given token support, housing is at the back of the queue as is violence against women and children, when Labor have done more about these issues, and gotten it through parliament despite staunch opposition from an Opposition determined to live up to their name and who, in government, did none of it, in fact, did the opposite.
Yet, according to Irene the stenographer from Whitestone Strategies on behalf of the Liberal Party:
Labor is obsessed with supporting the US military- financially as well as with personnel. And seen as aggressive towards our major trading partner, China, without which our finances would be dire.
Can’t blame the LNP, it is a Labor government now.
Labor, who’ve done more to repair the Trading relationship with China, and repair the Budget, than any other recent government, but because we also are concerned about the sovereignty of nations we should not work with America, because that would lead to our finances becoming ‘dire’?
Pull the other one, Irene, it plays ‘Jingle Bells’! Maybe this stuff works on WeChat but it’s not going to work on PB.