I’ve been too busy in the last few days to give the site the attention it deserves, and in particularly to have anything to offer about the by-election that is sadly upon us in the marginal Labor seat of Dunkley in Melbourne’s south-east. The Age had a Resolve Strategic poll for Victoria on Saturday that escaped my notice at the time and which I’ll finally do a post on later today. For now, I offer a perfunctory account of two recent federal results:
• The latest Essential Research poll is all but unchanged on last fortnight, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens all steady on 34%, 31% and 13%, One Nation down a point to 6%, and undecided down a point to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor up a point to 49% and the Coalition down one to 46%. Also included in the poll are monthly leaders’ favourability ratings, where respondents are asked to rate their performance on a scale of one to ten, which find Anthony Albanese still in decline though at a slower rate than last month, and Peter Dutton taking a downward turn after a relatively strong result last month. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1102.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, with Labor down two on the primary vote to 30.5%, the Coalition down half 37%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 14% and One Nation steady on 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1719.
• Nine Newspapers had further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll on Sunday regarding immigration, which found 62% believe current levels are too high, 23% about right and 3% too low. Fifty-seven per cent felt the government was handling immigration in an “unplanned and unmanaged way”, with only 16% favouring the “carefully planned and managed” alternative. The poll predated the government’s announcement of its immigration strategy on Monday.
I like to think that it’s leading by example.
If a developed nation like Australia can make its energy grid turn out like that by 2050, then that would definitely turn eyes worldwide that maybe they don’t need coal (other than for metallurgical purposes) after all?
Kirsdarke @ #701 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 5:22 pm
I give credit to Bowen for being a strong Minister in transitioning our domestic energy supply.
I give nothing of the sort to Minister King for supporting our deadly fossil fuel export trade.
Steven Miles’ father was a Metalworker and his mother was a Workplace Health and Safety Officer.
Move over, HPM, here’s HPPM: high-profile policeman.
‘The senior officer – who can only be referred to as AB for 40 years due to a court order – was charged with high-range drink-driving before police announced the incident in November. His employment status is under review.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/15/nsw-car-crash-detective-charged-with-drink-driving-ab-watchdog
It’s unfortunate that there are cost blowouts in the Victorian road and rail infrastructure Big Build. The latest being for additions and reconfiguration of the N/E link according to local and business consultations.
But these projects are needed and have to be built. The longer it’s left the more expensive it gets. I think most Victorians understand this.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 4:42 pm
‘Nemesis – The Inside Story of Ambition, Betrayal and Revenge in the Coalition Years of Government starts on 29 January on the ABC
——————————————————————-
The LNP years had so many Ministers with so little talent. It does appear Tyche worked overtime bestowing her gifts on them. Something that would particularly rile her sister.
From Orphic Hymn 60:
“Thee, Nemesis I call, almighty queen, by whom the deeds of mortal life are seen:
Eternal, much rever’d, of boundless sight, alone rejoicing in the just and right”
IF you have gas hot plates, when you go to clean the exhaust fan above them take a look at the residue
Gas is on the way out for a raft of reasons
The Industry may be embarking on an advertising campaign promoting gas but that same Industry has inflicted terminal damage on the Industry before you get to emissions
It was once very readily available and cheap, particularly from offshore in Victoria and was therefore favoured by consumers because of those factors
But those days are long since gone with gas now being a very expensive resource courtesy of off shore pricing being charged to Australian consumers, off shore Contracts the focus of the Industry exclusively
And in regard coal, look at the proprietors of those (ageing) assets and the forward projections of those proprietors who are Global Corporations – so how they are going to deliver energy into the future because that is their business model
I seem to recall the former Federal Government attempting to pressure an International conglomerate to keep their coal powered energy resource operational then when that failed signalling that it was going to purchase the antiquated and (deliberately) run down assets That also did not proceed (noting the commitment to the Snowy project with its blow out costs – the drilling machinery only operational again in the last few days after long term problems – and that can happen underground because despite samples you just do not know what you are going to encounter)
The proprietors deemed that there was no future in investing into the infrastructure and were allowing it to run down ahead of extinction
And in regards the infrastructure build in Victoria and Melbourne, what is the alternative?
And don’t give me reducing the population number because population is only ever going to grow
And if it doesn’t, look at Japan – and China reversing its restraints
Socrates @ #693 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 4:58 pm
I responded to the article by Melissa Tham this morning in my reply to Griff. I do not take her conclusions on face value. To my eyes they appear biased in favour of the cohort she has studied. Also, another point I made was that the environment of the Selective School was not meant to be a walk in the park. It streams GAT students into it so that ultimately they will be able to cope with the pressures of high academic achievement in their tertiary studies.
I will also read about the Finnish school system, but again, I caution about comparing apples with oranges. My experience is in the Australian context and so I will measure my response within that context.
Rex Douglassays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 5:36 pm
It’s unfortunate that there are cost blowouts in the Victorian road and rail infrastructure Big Build. The latest being for additions and reconfiguration of the N/E link according to local and business consultations.
But these projects are needed and have to be built. The longer it’s left the more expensive it gets. I think most Victorians understand this.
———————————————————–
I agree, though i expect Taylormade would not. Though i expect he was in the minority during the last three Victorian elections too.
I have a rule for watching the Australian mens test cricket team – whenever Warner is batting watch something else.
What goes around comes around @ #707 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 5:39 pm
Who’s ‘Tyche’?
And ‘the just and rig’ ???
So the AUKUS legislation has passed through both Houses of the American Congress. 🙂
Mavis
Right back atcha.
The free public transport for five weeks is a great initiative by the Cook government at relatively low cost to the budget (probably) and an excellent opportunity to test whether usage rates increase.
Boorlooans should get on board.
Literally.
A message to you, Rudy?
“Jury in Rudy Giuliani defamation trial urged to send message: ‘Don’t do it’”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/14/rudy-giuliani-testimony-federal-defamation-case-atlanta-election-workers
Lol.
Judging by Rupert’s comment in his Humphries’ eulogy (thanks for the link, Itza), he loathes “woke” – a rare personal admission.
He thinks wokeness is a fetter on free expression but it’s not: at its base, it takes into account minorities who’ve been historically & systemically marginalised, bearing in mind that Truman, for instance, referred to Afro-Americans as… throughout his life.*
He created “Fox” and at first regretted his creation, but allowed it to poison the US polity after realising that a lot of Americans shared his jaundiced views, and in consequence thereof, his coffers swelled until they didn’t – eg, the $US787m Dominion defamation settlement, with Smartmatic et al to come.
Then along comes his son, Lachlan, who decided, after replacing his old man as head of News Corp, to appoint Santamaria’s satellite & intellectual pygmy – Abbott – to the News Corp Board.
Rupert’s less than tacit approval of the Jan 6 attack on the Capitol via Fox News’ himbos & bimbos masquerading as journalists can’t be understated. And as so many quality journalists, academics, retired judges etc strongly argue, American hegemony and democracy itself are at a crossroads come November.
Let’s hope that upon Rupert’s death, three of his four trustees -James, Elisabeth & Prudence – reform News Corp. A good start would be to divest its interest in Fox News, Sky News, and the Oz.
* https://archive.seattletimes.com/archive/?date=19911103&slug=1314805
C@tmommasays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 5:44 pm
What goes around comes around @ #707 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 5:39 pm
Oliver Suttonsays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 4:42 pm
‘Nemesis – The Inside Story of Ambition, Betrayal and Revenge in the Coalition Years of Government starts on 29 January on the ABC
——————————————————————-
The LNP years had so many Ministers with so little talent. It does appear Tyche worked overtime dispensing her gifts on them. Something that would particularly rile her sister.
From Orphic Hymn 60:
“Thee, Nemesis I call, almighty queen, by whom the deeds of mortal life are seen:
Eternal, much rever’d, of boundless sight, alone rejoicing in the just and rig”
Who’s ‘Tyche’?
And ‘the just and rig’ ???
—————————————————————–
And ‘the just and rig’ ???: A poor job at cut and paste, i fixed it. It should read “right”
Tyche or Tykhe is Nemesis’ sister. She is called Fortuna in the more vulgar latin. She bestowed gifts on the undeserving and blocked those of greater talent from rising. Her sister Nemesis job was to restore order. To put those who had risen to high by dumb luck (the gift of Tyche) back in their rightful place and place those that truly deserved to be in that position there instead.
Mavis,
Rupert’s overarching business model is to create divided opinion on every topic. That generates revenue from his product.
The term ‘woke’ is an invention based on the above principle and used widely by Murdoch employees. It has caught on with Murdoch’s devotees.
One thing I’m worried about is how the term “woke” is turning in the direction of “Opposing the extermination of ‘out’ minorities is “woke” (as a generally socially derogative word)”, as it was in various forms of state-sanctioned genocide in the past.
Of course it’s nowhere near that at the moment, but it does seem to be slowly turning in that direction.
Kirsdarke @ #690 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 4:45 pm
It would be good. But is it realistic? I’m always a bit suspicious of graphs that essentially rely on “magic happens here” scenarios. Which this graph looks a lot like it does. We have been conned by this type of graph time and time again (often issued by the IPCC, who you think should know better).
I realize this is a draft graph in a draft document, but there is something odd going on here – the graph does not appear to be generated using the supporting data, which is available at https://aemo.com.au/consultations/current-and-closed-consultations/draft-2024-isp-consultation
The graph appears to be missing gas generation that relies on CCS, which (at least according to the supporting data) is what actually replaces coal generation almost GW for GW. In fact, there is CCS mentioned all over the supporting data but it is not mentioned anywhere the document.
Perhaps AEMO are re-thinking their intention to rely on CCS (which is basically equivalent to relying on magical thinking) But just leaving it out when it is clearly inherent in their supporting data means either this graph is not correct, or the supporting data is not correct. Either way, this is probably not an accurate picture.
But sure, it looks good. No doubt designed to cheer people up for Christmas.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 5:11 pm
We wait with bated breath for Marles/Labor to accept deployment orders to the ME from the US and confirm Australia has ceded Defense sovereignty to them.
”
Already happened. US asked Australia to send Aircraft Carrier in and around Iranian waters.
https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/14/australia-usa-request-warship-red-sea-yemen-houthi-target-shipping-lanes?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17026254645017&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2F2023%2Fdec%2F14%2Faustralia-usa-request-warship-red-sea-yemen-houthi-target-shipping-lanes
“Australia considers US request to send warship to Red Sea as Houthis target shipping lanes
US navy request comes as Iran-aligned militia wade into the Israel-Hamas conflict, attacking vessels in commercial shipping lanes”
Ven @ #721 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 6:30 pm
Jeez. I knew they would end up commanding our nuclear submarines. But I did not realize this would already extend to our existing warships. We better hope and pray there are never any threats in our region when the US goes to war in the middle east … again … because I can’t see them racing to our assistance 🙁
Ven and/or Rex, what does this mean?
US asked Australia to send Aircraft Carrier in and around Iranian waters.
RAN Aircraft Carrier??????
‘Granny Anny says:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 6:50 pm
Ven and/or Rex, what does this mean?
….’
——————-
It means time travel is real.
Granny Anny @ #723 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 6:50 pm
It’s due in 2060, I believe. Nuclear powered!
Player One
Perhaps you would be so kind as to point to the document that mentions CCS ( which I assume is Carbon Capture and Storage).
https://aemo.com.au/consultations/current-and-closed-consultations/draft-2024-isp-consultation
“I have a rule for watching the Australian mens test cricket team – whenever Warner is batting watch something else.”
Even more productive, would be only watching when Victorians are playing.
Player One
Well P1, I have been through the supporting data and my conclusion is your full of shit ( to use a technical term).
What is impressive is a lot of the conclusion is based on projects committed or planned.
https://aemo.com.au/consultations/current-and-closed-consultations/draft-2024-isp-consultation
frednk @ #726 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 6:53 pm
https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem-consultations/2023/draft-2024-isp-consultation/supporting-materials/draft-2024-isp-generation-and-storage-outlook.zip?la=en
frednk @ #728 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 7:01 pm
I think your comb is missing a few teeth.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/12/not-poll-reset-palaszczuk-resigns.html
Not-A-Poll Reset: Palaszczuk Resigns
Palaszczuk joins Morrison and Perrottet as leaders to be correctly tipped to be next to go by my sidebar Not-A-Poll (though both Palaszczuk and Morrison were incorrectly tipped at least once as well.)
Rewi:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 5:54 pm
Are you sure you’re directing your post to me? If so, I’m not sure what you mean.
______________________________________
Rex Douglas:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 6:09 pm
Agree. Nearly everything Murdoch does is based on increasing his wealth, leading to the division of the US we are witnessing. When Fox News was in its infancy, he knew he was opening Pandora’s Box but didn’t demur based solely on its revenue stream. The damage a former Australian has done to America is incalculable.
”
Kirsdarkesays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 6:16 pm
One thing I’m worried about is how the term “woke” is turning in the direction of “Opposing the extermination of ‘out’ minorities is “woke” (as a generally socially derogative word)”, as it was in various forms of state-sanctioned genocide in the past.
Of course it’s nowhere near that at the moment, but it does seem to be slowly turning in that direction.
”
Right-wingers are trying to make ‘woke’ a reviled word like ‘political correctness’.(I never understood why ‘political correctness’ was supposed to be reviled.)
If you don’t do ‘politically’ correct things how are you going to give a helping hand to people who deserve help?
One of the core duties of a government is to look after the poor and under-privileged because the society does not have time or money or willingness to do that. If the government don’t do that it will result in creation of bad/ evil people, who will stoke resentment against civilised society and it will be downhill after that.
Mavis
I regret the confusion. Line 1 was to you in response to your kind words, the rest an exhortation to Society At Large.
WeWantPaul (#593 apparently though I don’t see post numbers)
“Definitely we need to entrench to duopoly and create insurmountable barriers to prevent democracy breaking out.”
I do believe that 27 or even say 20 parties is not a duopoly; your mileage may vary. Indeed by encouraging uncompetitive parties to merge into more broadly based movements instead of being an undisciplined rabble of niche indulgences we are increasing the chances of more significant challengers to the waning “duopoly” emerging and succeeding.
Parties that poll fractions of a percent are not a threat to the duopoly, they are just a waste of ballot paper.
”
Granny Annysays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 6:50 pm
Ven and/or Rex, what does this mean?
US asked Australia to send Aircraft Carrier in and around Iranian waters.
RAN Aircraft Carrier??????
”
Granny Anny
I added a link to that post @6:30 pm
We once had two Aircraft Carriers: HMAS Sydney & Melbourne. I served on both of them, though the former was converted into a troop ship – aka “The Vung Tau Ferry.” Although both were RN rejects, few countries could boast both now & then of two carriers.
Rewi:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 7:21 pm
Thanks for the clarification.
“Parties that poll fractions of a percent are not a threat to the duopoly, they are just a waste of ballot paper.”
Most of what you said is very fair, and it should definitely be given weight.
And I deliberately avoided the issue of fake and / or dodgy parties, setup to manipulate the system AND to actually drive a result other than the advancing of that party’s interest. I’m 100% for those being quashed / removed (although I appreciate that isn’t easy to police).
But to the extent the balance is between paper and democracy, I’d side with democracy each time, even if they always lose their deposit.
Granny Annysays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 6:50 pm
Ven and/or Rex, what does this mean?
US asked Australia to send Aircraft Carrier in and around Iranian waters.
RAN Aircraft Carrier??????
—————————————————————
Did you see the movie “Final Countdown” in which a aircraft carrier from 1980s USA goes back in time to Pearl Harbour Dec 1941.
So if Australia did something similar but in reverse. We would send the HMAS Melbourne from the early 1980’s to the Red Sea of January 2024. It only requires us to invent the ability to produce large time displacement vortexes. It would be cheaper than building a new aircraft carrier, which wouldn’t be available for many years anyway. The energy source for such a time travel device would of course be SMR’s. So non-existent technology powering other non-existent technology to overcome fact that we currently have a non-existent aircraft carrier. You know it makes sense.
@Ven
Yeah, exactly. There’s a definite shift in a certain window from it being “Oh will you please shut up about niche disadvantaged parts of society not being granted full recognition everywhere at once?” toward it starting to look like “Oh will you just shut up about our active campaign to disenfranchise and eliminate these minorities from public society?”
Not much focus here on the Higgins case today. I wonder why. Just read about today’s events. Lawyers are expensive of course, and you have to sell a lot to settle things.
”
What goes around comes aroundsays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 7:44 pm
Granny Annysays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 6:50 pm
Ven and/or Rex, what does this mean?
US asked Australia to send Aircraft Carrier in and around Iranian waters.
RAN Aircraft Carrier??????
—————————————————————
Did you see the movie “Final Countdown” in which a aircraft carrier from 1980s USA goes back in time to Pearl Harbour Dec 1941.
So if Australia did something similar but in reverse. We would send the HMAS Melbourne from the early 1980’s to the Red Sea of January 2024. It only requires us to invent the ability to produce large time displacement vortexes. It would be cheaper than building a new aircraft carrier, which wouldn’t be available for many years anyway. The energy source for such a time travel device would of course be SMR’s. So non-existent technology powering other non-existent technology to overcome fact that we currently have a non-existent aircraft carrier. You know it makes sense.
”
Keeping aside ‘ha ha funny’,
Recently in August 2023, I went to see 2 docked Indian warships in Sydney after training exercises with QUAD countries, I saw photos of Australian Aircraft Carriers alongside Indian warships during the tour of those ships in International/ Australian waters.
The original vision for Barangaroo was 50% public open space and an iconic building that “screamed Sydney”.
Clearly succeeding on the latter with the hideous Crown Towers, but failing on the latter in my view.
Failing on the former.
Vensays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 8:01 pm
”
What goes around comes aroundsays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 7:44 pm
Granny Annysays:
Friday, December 15, 2023 at 6:50 pm
Ven and/or Rex, what does this mean?
I saw photos of Australian Aircraft Carriers alongside Indian warships during the tour of those ships in International/ Australian waters.
———————————————————————-
INS Vikrant (1961) would have been around when HMAS Melbourne was around. INS Vikrant (1961) was originally a UK built ship body (HMS Hercules). The current INS Vikrant (2012)is completely Indian built ship. The last Australian aircraft carrier the HMAS Melbourne was sent to China as scrap in 1982. Australia has some ships with helicopters but none with carrier jets though.
frednk
Thanks for asking this question. If P1 is convinced that CCS is included, they need to provide reputable source for this.
Independently, I was planning on looking into the AEMO data, and producing some graphs, for my own understanding on where we are in the transition to renewables: Simon Holmes a Court’s take looks pretty good to me, on a first read of the data.
But, it will take me a few days, and that is appropriate given how important understanding the likely increase of wind and solar power feeds into how effective the transition will be.
frednk – also, I have just seen you answer to P1@7.01pm
Douglas and Milko @ #747 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 8:33 pm
My source is AEMO’s own documents.
P1@7.11 pm
Could you please provide a safe download alternative to this link (the one you provided saying that CCS was law through the AEMO assumptions): https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem-consultations/2023/draft-2024-isp-consultation/supporting-materials/draft-2024-isp-generation-and-storage-outlook.zip?la=en
When I try and click on the link you have provided, “computer says no”. Or more specifically “this link is asking you to download a document that may not be safe”.
Douglas and Milko @ #749 Friday, December 15th, 2023 – 8:40 pm
If you don’t trust AEMO then I can’t really blame you for that.
But how else are you going to tell if there is any discrepancy?