Two new items of opinion polling:
• RedBridge Group has a poll of voting intention from Western Australia, encompassing both a federal result and a state one you can read about in the post immediately above. Both are encouraging for Labor, the federal result crediting them with a 55.2-44.8 lead, effectively unchanged on a 2022 election result of 55.0-45.0. The primary votes are Labor 39% (36.8% at the election), Coalition 37% (34.8%), Greens 12% (12.5%) and One Nation 5% (4.0%). Field work dates are not provided, but the sample was 1200.
• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll on politicians’ trustworthiness, and while only scarce detail is offered, we are told three out of twenty-four had net positive results: Penny Wong, Jacinta Price and Jim Chalmers. Anthony Albanese recorded minus three, while Peter Dutton was on minus fourteen. The poll was conducted November 16 to 20 from a sample of 1095.
Preselection latest:
• Varun Ghosh, a Right-aligned barrister at Francis Burt Chambers, has been confirmed as Labor’s successor to the Western Australian Senate vacancy that will be created next month by the retirement of Pat Dodson.
• Steph Hodgins-May, former senior campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, won a Greens preselection vote to fill the Victorian Senate vacancy that will be created when Janet Rice retires in the second half of next year. Hodgins-May ran three times in the inner Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where she came very close to unseating Labor’s Josh Burns in 2022. Broede Carmody of The Age reports the other candidates were “City of Monash councillor Josh Fergeus, former Melbourne lord mayoral candidate Apsara Sabaratnam, former Legislative Council MP Huong Truong, Coburg-based surrogacy lawyer Sarah Jefford and barrister David Risstrom”.
• Nola Marino, who has held the seat of Forrest for the Liberals in Western Australia’s South West region since 2007, announced last week that she will retire at the next election. The West Australian reports former Senator Ben Small is “believed to have the inside track” to succeed her as Liberal candidate. Small is a former logistics manager at Woodside Energy and owner of a Bunbury bar and restaurant. He came to the Senate when he filled Mathias Cormann’s vacancy in November 2020 and failed to win re-election from third on the ticket in 2022.
• Katina Curtis of The West Australian reports Ian Goodenough, the Liberal member for Moore, may face a second preselection challenger in Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran, former journalist and former staffer to Malcolm Turnbull and Christopher Pyne. Moran now works in government relations for shipbuilder Luerssen. It has long been anticipated Goodenough will be challenged by RSLWA chief executive Vince Connelly, who held the seat of Stirling before its abolition in 2022 and then run unsuccessfully in Cowan after losing a preselection ballot against Goodenough by 39 votes to 36.
• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Susan Morris, who runs a vascular surgery practice in Kew, will run for Liberal preselection in Kooyong. She is the second nominee after Amelia Hamer, director of strategy at tech start-up Airwallex.
Dench does justice here to an impromptu(?) recitation of a Shakespeare sonnet:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_X1dbO-quI
Grant_ExLibrissays:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 7:41 pm
Only 6,100 at the Perth stadium.
Very disappointing outcome for test cricket.
_____________________
Not the most likable team we have ever had.
Warner, Smith, Khawaja.
Whilst Cape Town still lingers for the bowlers. Still can’t believe they weren’t in on it.
Head and Marsh are about the only ones I bother watching.
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 7:55 pm
‘Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 7:40 pm
It seems that the worst of Cyclone Jasper wasn’t the immediate cyclone, but the widespread flooding in the aftermath.’
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Coastal flood plains flood. Again!
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The unprecedented level that the word “unprecedented” is being used. Tells us we are in a unprecedented climate disaster.
I’m actually impressed with Richard Marles that he has been able to put off the American request for a ship from the RAN to be sent to the ME because he realises that they are needed more here than there. When the Americans said, ‘Jump!’, he didn’t say, ‘How high?’
Oliver Sutton @ #338 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 4:57 pm
Or, as the Jewish State, is one, the other?
Mavissays:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 7:07 pm
A reliable source tells me that HMAS Stuart has ongoing propulsion problems.
—————————————————————-
Loose lips sink ships.
What goes around comes around @ #315 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 3:45 pm
It sits as a convenient talking point with which to challenge mine. And nitpick, or show off your knowledge in a particular area. That’s about it. I’ll go back to which Axolotyl crawled out of the Red Sea mud first, on the Jewish or Palestinian side, if you want to be exact. 😐
Other than that my reference was to the ‘initial’ action by Hamas on October 7th, 2023. I would have thought you could have logically concluded that.
All this, of course in acknowledgement of the moratorium, is in reference to the STC incident.
#local
Christmas travel plans have been thrown into chaos as a developing flood emergency has closed Cairns Airport indefinitely. The last flight arrivals took place at 12:45pm Sunday and while departures were abandoned at 2pm due to rising floodwaters, as the aftermath of ex-tropical cyclone Jasper continues to batter far north Queensland. Cairns Airport CEO Richard Barker said: “If things play out well, we could be open again if it’s safe to do so tomorrow, otherwise it could be a couple of days.”
Confessions @ #340 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 3:23 pm
Very sensible, ‘fess. As usual. 🙂
Holdenhillbilly @ #408 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 8:32 pm
Can people just get over themselves? It’s cyclone season already, albeit a bit early. That’s what living up there is about. Make contingency plans.
Taylormade:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 8:08 pm
[‘Not the most likable team we have ever had. Warner, Smith, Khawaja.’]
While I agree with your view of Warner & to a lesser extent Smith, what do you find unlikeable about Khawaja?
What goes around comes around:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 8:26 pm
Mavis:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 7:07 pm
A reliable source tells me that HMAS Stuart has ongoing propulsion problems.
[Loose lips sink ships.]
You’re totally right – bad Mavis!
An article regarding the UK Mirror and hacking scandals;
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/media/64291/prince-harry-hacking-scandal-piers-morgan-mirror
From that article:
“Two companies—Murdoch Inc and the Mirror Group—have shelled out more than £1bn in costs and damages, while continuing to deny or admit the truth of what went on. Sadly, millions of emails and documents that might have cast light on the truth have gone missing.”
Quasar @ #414 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 9:10 pm
‘Gone missing’ is probably a euphemism for the panicked deleting you could get away with in earlier times before forensic analysis came into being.
An interesting interview from former RAN Chief Vice Adm Chris Barrie
https://www.smh.com.au/national/can-a-movie-change-your-life-just-ask-this-retired-admiral-he-nearly-became-a-brain-surgeon-20231212-p5eqwe.html
On the China threat:
“ Taiwan is a fatal distraction,” he says over lunch. “China is a fatal distraction. Climate change will get us before China.”
On the US alliance
“ He’s critical of the way Australian leaders seem to almost automatically follow the US into any conflict our powerful ally embarks on.”
On Australia in Iraq:
“He believes Iraq was a mistake because the UN had not sanctioned the action, and not enough troops were provided to stabilise the country afterwards. When Australian troops went to East Timor, he says, they were there at the “invitation” of the Indonesia government, “so we were not invading that country”.
On Australia getting involvd in Taiwan:
“ I think that depends,” he says. (He knows Taiwan well, having gone there several times in the 2000s.)
The Americans would expect us to get involved, I suggest. “Yeah, I’m sure they do. But would we make much difference? No. It’s totally symbolic,”
On AUKUS:
“ Barrie is sceptical on that front too. He is not opposed to nuclear submarines per se.”
“ We’re going to have to rely absolutely on the Americans – or the British.” He adds that if Trump were to win next year’s presidential election and renege on the submarine deal, “that will be the end of it”.”
A lad I went to primary school with and who lives up near cairns posted on his Facebook that at his place he;
Got 350mm of rain when Jasper crossed.
Thursday after Jasper had passed he had 400mm of rain before lunch but 600mm for a total for the day.
Friday, rain still didn’t stop, but not heavy all day with only 250mm of rain.
Saturday, hit 300mm at 8.30pm.
That is a total of 1500mm (1.5m) in 4 days.
He got another 500mm between last night (Saturday 8:30pm) and 12pm today..
So.. so far he’s had 2000mm in the last 5 days fall on his property.
And it is still pouring down.
i’d say its probably getting close to being “unprecedented”.. not that often, even in far north QLD, do you get more than 2000mm of rain in 5-6days..
Chris ‘Children Overboard’ Barrie. Hmm. Not a totally objective source.
pattern against user,
I heard the reporter on the ABC say today, as she stood outside in the pouring rain under an umbrella that wasn’t of much use, that Jasper had just stopped and that’s why the rain has kept on coming.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-anthony-albanese-a-drag-on-labors-recovery/news-story/05ded91a0aaebd8e88c3a1c507ff97ea
The Albanese government has ended the year by reasserting Labor’s electoral lead over the Coalition amid a modest rebound in support but will head into 2024 with voters unimpressed by Anthony Albanese’s performance as Prime Minister.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor’s primary vote lifting two points to 33 per cent in the past three weeks following resolution of the immigration detainee disaster, which saw its stocks fall last month to their lowest levels since the election.
The Coalition’s primary vote fell two points to 36 per cent. This has resulted in a four-point turnaround in the two-party-preferred vote from 50-50 in mid-November to have Labor leading again, 52-48.
The final Newspoll of the year reflects an almost identical result to the May 2022 election, which Labor won on a primary vote of 32.6 per cent, against the Coalition’s 35.7 and a two-party-preferred split of 52.1 to 47.9 per cent.
And speaking of Bill Shorten, which we have been doing too much of lately for the wrong reasons, it was heartening to see him wedge both Sussan Ley and David Littleproud today with his announced crackdown on NDIS Providers. Ley and Littleproud are obviously at the end of a video camera for a quick retort whenever Labor do anything, so it was great to see that they could not find one thing to criticise Bill Shorten for today after his announcement. They were both in furious agreement. 😀
It looks that way C@t..
Just made landfall and has sat over the top of North QLD for days..
But there was also talk it would enter the gulf and possibly reform..
The Albanese government has ended the year by reasserting Labor’s electoral lead over the Coalition amid a modest rebound in support but will head into 2024 with voters unimpressed by Anthony Albanese’s performance as Prime Minister. An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor’s primary vote lifting two points to 33 per cent in the past three weeks following resolution of the immigration detainee disaster, which saw its stocks fall last month to their lowest levels since the election.
The Coalition’s primary vote fell two points to 36 per cent. This has resulted in a four-point turnaround in the two-party-preferred vote from 50-50 in mid-November to have Labor leading again, 52-48.
The final Newspoll of the year reflects an almost identical result to the May 2022 election, which Labor won on a primary vote of 32.6 per cent, against the Coalition’s 35.7 and a two-party-preferred split of 52.1 to 47.9 per cent.
Labor’s primary vote, however, remains six points down compared to this time last year. The Coalition’s position is five points up on its lowest point in the term, recorded in September 2022.
But voters remain indifferent to Mr Albanese’s leadership, with the Prime Minister ending the year in negative territory and with more voters dissatisfied with his performance than they are with Liberal leader Peter Dutton. Mr Albanese’s approval ratings rose two points to 42 per cent in the latest poll. This is equal to the second-worst result for the Prime Minister. Dissatisfaction with his performance dropped three points to 50 per cent, leaving Mr Albanese with a net negative approval rating of minus eight.
Mr Dutton also enjoyed a rise in approval of two points to 39 per cent. This is the strongest number for Mr Dutton this term, with his disapproval rating falling to 48 per cent, producing a net negative result of minus 11.
The head-to-head contest between the two leaders remained unchanged with a narrow gap of just 11 points between them. On who voters believed would make the better prime minister, Mr Albanese leads Mr Dutton by 46 per cent to 35 per cent.
Labor MPs might be relieved at the slight improvement in the polls, with many bracing for a worse result considering the political crises the government has been battling for the past month.
But the two-point rise in its primary vote reflects a recovery of only half the four-point slide the Labor Party suffered in the previous poll.
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation rose a point to 7 per cent, equal to its highest level of support since the election in May 2022.
The Greens’ primary vote of 13 per cent remains unchanged and slightly ahead of its election result of 12.2 per cent.
Support for other minor parties and independents, which includes the teal independents, fell a point to 11 per cent.
Thanks for that, Leroy.
People obviously want, ‘I fight Tories’ Albanese. Being PM doesn’t mean you have to be milquetoast.
Mavissays:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 8:39 pm
Taylormade:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 8:08 pm
While I agree with your view of Warner & to a lesser extent Smith, what do you find unlikeable about Khawaja?
_____________________
Heard him interviewed on SEN a couple of years ago.
Just came across as really arrogant and haven’t liked him since.
pattern against user @ #422 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 9:35 pm
😯 I hope not, for everyone’s sake. Though I have also heard that this stasis of weather systems is another symptom of Climate Change.
Newspoll
TPP: ALP 52 (+2) L/NP 48 (-2)
Primary: ALP 33 (+2) L/NP 36 (-2) GRN 13 (0) ON 7 (+1) OTH 11 (-1)
Preferred PM: Albanese 46 (0) Dutton 35 (0)
Albanese: Approve 42 (+2) Disapprove 50 (-3)
Dutton: Approve 39 (+2) Disapprove 48 (-2)
New thread.
”An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor’s primary vote lifting two points to 33 per cent in the past three weeks following resolution of the immigration detainee disaster…”
“Disaster” – what a load of crap. The high Court did its job, invalidating unconstitutional Coalition legislation.
And the Australian pretends to be a quality journal of record. It is the “Liberal” party’s main propaganda outlet.
Taylormerde:
“ Not the most likable team we have ever had.
Warner, Smith, Khawaja.”
And when queried about the WTF reference to Khawaja:
“ Heard him interviewed on SEN a couple of years ago.
Just came across as really arrogant and haven’t liked him since.”
_____
I think we can put this sort of commentary in the same category as AFL footy bogans, who when challenged as to why they booed Adam Goodes for his entire last playing year would say ‘oh, he stages for free kicks’ …
I think most of us right thinking folk would actually recognise both Usi and Adam as being amongst the nicest and most unassuming humans on the planet … I guess the difference in perspective is us not having Kultcha warrior googles wielded to our faces …