Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

The last Newspoll of the year suggests the Albanese government may have arrested its recent decline.

The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the year has Labor recovering a 52-48 lead after the previous poll three weeks ago found the Coalition drawing level. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up two), Coalition 36% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton scores his highest approval rating of the term with a two-point gain to 39%, with his disapproval down two to 48%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1219.

The News Corp tabloids also reported today on a RedBridge Group poll showing Labor leading 52.8-47.2, on which more details should be available tomorrow.

UPDATE (Freshwater Strategy): The Financial Review has a Freshwater Strategy poll, conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1109, which records a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 39% and Greens 13%. This is the fourth federal poll from this outfit this term, and like the first two it has Labor’s two-party share two to three points lower than the most proximate Newspoll. It also credits Anthony Albanese with a relatively narrow 43-39 lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister.

The poll further includes approval and disapproval ratings for a range of public figures, which find Anthony Albanese on 37% approval and 42% disapproval and Peter Dutton on 34% approval and 36% approval, with a respective 1% and 5% saying they had never heard of them. Penny Wong had the best numbers for Labor with 35% approval and 30% disapproval, with the others canvassed each having non-recognition ratings of around a quarter: Jim Chalmers at 22% approval and 21% disapproval, Tanya Plibersek at 21% and 23%, and Chris Bowen has 16% and 22%.

Two Liberals other than Dutton were canvassed, with Sussan Ley at 16% on both approval and disapproval and 37% on non-recognition, and Angus Taylor respectively at 15%, 13% and 39%. The two best results for Coalition figures were recorded by Nationals: Jacinta Price had 28% approval, 21% approval and 17% non-recognition, while party leader David Littleproud was respectively at 20%, 17% and 29%. Barnaby Joyce did less well, with 25% approval, 42% disapproval and 8% non-recognition.

Also featured was a question on issue salience that allowed the respondents to pick multiple options. Immigration was number eight with a bullet, having increased five points to 13% since September, while the cost of living remained well clear at the top of the table with 71%, albeit that this was down six points. Immigration was also the weakest issue area for Labor as best party to manage, down six to 23% with the Coalition up two to 36%. However, Labor widened its lead on job security and unemployment, up one to 35% with the Coalition down two to 30%, and holds a commanding lead of 40% to 24% on welfare and benefits.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

638 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 13 of 13
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  2. C@t,

    It’s the hypnotic effect of the mass media that is a big problem here. Even PRGuy17 (probably more well known in Victoria than NSW) who was a huge social media influencer in state Victorian politics that supported Dan Andrews’ Labor admitted that when he first became aware of politics during the Gillard era in 2010-2013 that he was led to instinctively despise both her and the Carbon Tax from how heavily the media saturated almost every outlet into making him think that.

  3. Clarence Thomas was deep in debt when he hinted to a GOP lawmaker that he’d quit if he didn’t get a pay raise: report

    https://www-businessinsider-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.businessinsider.com/clarence-thomas-pay-raise-justices-ethics-cliff-stearns-2023-12?amp=&amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17029736550846&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Fclarence-thomas-pay-raise-justices-ethics-cliff-stearns-2023-12

    •Justice Clarence Thomas pushed a House Republican in 2000 to get justices a pay rise, a report says.

    •ProPublica quoted Thomas telling the lawmaker that “one or more justices will leave soon” if there was no raise.

    •Thomas’ reported concerns were later relayed to Chief Justice William Rehnquist.

  4. Astro_turf

    It is not true to say Labor has no lasting legacy. Nationally, as has been discussed here for some time, the NDIS is a very significant social welfare measure. It has flaws, but so do any programs of its scale. Labor’s response to the inflation resulting in no small part from the previous government’s response to the pandemic (contributed to also by Labor states’ responses it has to be conceded) and the Stage 3 tax poison pill has been rock solid.

    Its got a lot of work to do on cost of living, and its agenda is stymied by current economic conditions. But the approach to renewables is potentially transformative, notwithstanding its continuing live affair with fossil gas.

    In WA, the Metronet system being built is a magnificent thing. Again, there are social and environmental policies I wish they would pursue more vigorously. Again, though, Labor was elected with worsening finances inherited from a spendthrift Liberal party. Your criticism, in short, goes too far.

  6. “That would be the Labor Party that, in 2019, had policies that would have TAKEN AWAY by severely modifying, Franking Credits, Negative Gearing and Capital Gains Tax concessions.”

    Excellent point.

  8. Of all the Teals, I think Ryan is the only one really vulnerable at the next election: she’s just too left wing for that seat. Nearly all of the other Teals are safely Petite Bourgeoisie. Tink may also have a question mark over her centre-right economic credentials.

  9. The NBN – save for the ‘last km’ – is another Labor Legacy of the last RGR Governmmet.

    The omnishambles that is ‘the last km’ is wholly owned by Abbott – but mainly Turnbull.

  12. I stand to be corrected but I can’t recall if a “forensic” lip-reader’s evidence has ever been adjudged to be admissable in a civil or criminal proceeding in Oz. I can’t see any good reason why it shouldn’t, but what if Lehrmann were to produce one who countered Reedy’s evidence? It’s not as if there’s a paper trail, a video or sound recording of the exchange between Higgins & Lehrmann at the material time. Incidentally, I’d like to know what was said at His Majesty’s coronation.

    ______________________________________

    As for Fyles’ resignation, she’s done the right thing, highlighting that an interest, however small, spells doom – a very good lesson.

    _______________________________________

    I’m missing nath, hoping he’s allowed back soon, of the view that the reason for his sin-binning was more about his manifold critics than it was for any serious indiscretion.

  14. Who could forget the truly big lie that Abbott and Hockey took into their first election.

    A “review” later and the real slash, burn and bastardize agenda came out: the lying bastards.

    Hockey had a side line in some crackers.

    Wind farms made him sick to his stomach.

    He had a vitriolic hatred of leaners who scooped up a fortune in DC child care fees.

  15. nath is definitely not missed. The last thing this place needs is more hyper male snarky testosterone the like of which that commenter provided to this blog.

  16. Kirsdarke @ #598 Tuesday, December 19th, 2023 – 7:54 pm

    C@t,

    It’s the hypnotic effect of the mass media that is a big problem here. Even PRGuy17 (probably more well known in Victoria than NSW) who was a huge social media influencer in state Victorian politics admitted that when he first became aware of politics during the Gillard era in 2010-2013 that he was led to instinctively despise both her and the Carbon Tax from how heavily the media saturated almost every outlet into making him think that.

    Isn’t it great when the scales fall from their eyes? 🙂

    You have to admit that the mass media put a lot of effort into curating people’s pov. It’s frankly overwhelming what people are bombarded with day in, day out these days. So it gets to the point where you just don’t know who or what to believe, especially if you are a young person whose whole life has consisted of being deluged with information and opinions. And the algorithms! Boy have they turned things inside out and upside down. It’s to PRGuy’s credit that he came up for air and saw the light. It takes a lot of effort though, and most people these days just don’t have the time to sort the wheat from the chaff. So they tend to believe what they think are authoritative sources. Or TikTok. 😀

  18. William Bowe:

    Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 8:54 pm

    [‘I lifted the ban on Nath several days ago.’]

    Good decision, despite Confesion’s disapproval.

  19. C@t,

    Yeah, that’s true. I personally had my political awareness opened in around early 2007 where I was 19 and got my first job, and there I saw the very charismatic Kevin Rudd take the available airwaves and he turned out to be very charming, compared to the Howard government ministers like Joe Hockey that were up there to oppose him.

    Given it was the first election year in which I could vote I paid a lot of attention to those Sunrise segments before heading off to work and that only made me want to vote for Kevin07 even more.

  20. All my friends have moved’: how UK cities have been hollowed out by housing price rises

    In central London, schools are closing as low and middle-income families are priced out. But some suburbs have more young people than they can afford. And the pattern is being repeated across the UK

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/17/all-my-friends-have-moved-how-uk-cities-have-been-hollowed-out-by-housing-price-rises?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17029809567144&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2F2023%2Fdec%2F17%2Fall-my-friends-have-moved-how-uk-cities-have-been-hollowed-out-by-housing-price-rises

    “Britain’s biggest cities are being reshaped by soaring housing costs, as ever more people are priced out of buying or renting a home. London is the most extreme example, with house prices almost £250,000 higher than the national average, and rents at least £1,000 a month higher. But it is by no means alone in the UK.

    Areas once within reach for many young adults are becoming off-limits, which leaves hollowed-out cities lived in by a dwindling mix of young and old, rich and poor. With a general election looming, housing is rising up the political agenda, as the departure of families leads to school closures and concerns about worker shortages. At the same time, suburbs and commuter towns are under pressure from an influx of priced-out families.

    To plot the changes, the Observer travelled from Lambeth – where the number of households with children has collapsed by 10% since 2001, one of the capital’s sharpest declines – to Barking and Dagenham on the Essex border, where cheaper housing has meant a 34% boom in families with children.”

  24. Did you know that the full name of the party is Sustainable Australia Party – Universal Basic Income?

    SAPUBI! Or, as the Guardian would have it, Sapubi!

    “That’s so Sapubi.”

    “You’re Sapubi.”

    “Pass the Sapubi?”

  25. My points seem too inflammatory for the general population here and tend to upset some of the regulars, so I post links to articles I think are important reads. Do I need to add comments alongside the links?

  27. @Philip Seymour Hoffman

    To be honest, all you seem to be doing with posting your links is the equivalent to nonsense like this.

    What does it mean to people not in your mental wavelength? Probably not much. So most of us are of the opinion “Well, okay then, let’s move on.”

  28. I was interested today that Mr Reedy confirmed he isn’t a qualified lip reader.

    “There’s a qualification for that?” wonders I, fully expecting there would be but curious nonetheless as to what form it would take.

    Here, then, the National Careers website from the UK government:

    https://nationalcareers.service.gov.uk/find-a-course/details?courseId=9dc409c8-e1fb-4cf3-9ea1-7b3c961e1a90&runId=451f25a7-5b98-414b-baec-2108f5bd2777&searchTerm=functional%20skills&town=&courseType=%5B%22%22%5D&courseHours=%5B%22%22%5D&courseStudyTime=%5B%22%22%5D&startDate=&distance=&filtera=False&page=667&orderByValue=&coordinates=&campaignCode=&qualificationLevels=

    “Non regulated Community Learning, Life skills: lipreading”

    “Generic award – no awarding body”

    What greater skill Mr Reedy might have from completing this course is no doubt occupying His Honour’s mind as he attempts to drift off…

  29. PSH(Hoffman)
    Housing problem is not just an Australian issue. Every country especially AUKUS countries are facing acute shortage of houses and rents in major cities out of reach of many people.

  31. “significant risk” to his mental health if he became publicly linked to the criminal allegations.

    Seriously, whose mental health isn’t at significant risk if they are publicly linked to criminal allegations. This is just one rule for the rich and another for the poor.

  33. Hoffman
    How many houses are built in a year in India?
    Annual number of house completions under PMAY-G scheme in rural India FY 2017-2023. As of financial year 2023, 5.77 million houses were completed under the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana-Gramin (PMAY-G) scheme in rural areas of India. This was an increase from the previous year.15 Nov 2023

    https://www.statista.com › statistics
    India: houses completed under PMAY-G scheme 2023 – Statista

    Pradhan mantri = PM= Prime minister.

  35. I mean, sure, we can have a crack at feminists for being anti-Hindu when they should be anti-Islam, or we could talk about what’s going on in Indian parliamentary politics ahead of the next election..

    “India’s parliament has witnessed heated protests after 49 more opposition MPs were suspended, taking the total number of barred lawmakers to 141.

    “The MPs were protesting against last week’s security breach in parliament.

    “On Monday, the opposition accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government of attacking democracy after a record 78 MPs were suspended in one day.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67724698

  36. Yougov is running a poll, I suspect that it has been commissioned by the Government. 

    Pollees (is that a word?) were asked to select three issues that should be prioritised from a list of more than a dozen. I chose – Labour markets (skills and jobs) – cost of living – climate change and the environment. Items like defence acquisitions that get a run here were not available.

    They then list 4 issues and we were asked to rate how will they were being addressed – inflation and cost of living – immigration and asylum – public health – housing supply and pricing. This was followed by spending priorities, health categories and preferred priorities, cost of living priorities, etc.

  38. The trump show roles on all it does is motivate the democratic base to turn out on election day in massive numbers and defeat him again.Its all about getting the numbers out to vote.
    Good thing here in WA is local council elections are voluntary voting so candidates recently had to go to war to get their vote out the most on election day.All sorts of fun and games.

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