The Australian reports the final Newspoll of the year has Labor recovering a 52-48 lead after the previous poll three weeks ago found the Coalition drawing level. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up two), Coalition 36% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton scores his highest approval rating of the term with a two-point gain to 39%, with his disapproval down two to 48%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 46-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1219.
The News Corp tabloids also reported today on a RedBridge Group poll showing Labor leading 52.8-47.2, on which more details should be available tomorrow.
UPDATE (Freshwater Strategy): The Financial Review has a Freshwater Strategy poll, conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1109, which records a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 39% and Greens 13%. This is the fourth federal poll from this outfit this term, and like the first two it has Labor’s two-party share two to three points lower than the most proximate Newspoll. It also credits Anthony Albanese with a relatively narrow 43-39 lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister.
The poll further includes approval and disapproval ratings for a range of public figures, which find Anthony Albanese on 37% approval and 42% disapproval and Peter Dutton on 34% approval and 36% approval, with a respective 1% and 5% saying they had never heard of them. Penny Wong had the best numbers for Labor with 35% approval and 30% disapproval, with the others canvassed each having non-recognition ratings of around a quarter: Jim Chalmers at 22% approval and 21% disapproval, Tanya Plibersek at 21% and 23%, and Chris Bowen has 16% and 22%.
Two Liberals other than Dutton were canvassed, with Sussan Ley at 16% on both approval and disapproval and 37% on non-recognition, and Angus Taylor respectively at 15%, 13% and 39%. The two best results for Coalition figures were recorded by Nationals: Jacinta Price had 28% approval, 21% approval and 17% non-recognition, while party leader David Littleproud was respectively at 20%, 17% and 29%. Barnaby Joyce did less well, with 25% approval, 42% disapproval and 8% non-recognition.
Also featured was a question on issue salience that allowed the respondents to pick multiple options. Immigration was number eight with a bullet, having increased five points to 13% since September, while the cost of living remained well clear at the top of the table with 71%, albeit that this was down six points. Immigration was also the weakest issue area for Labor as best party to manage, down six to 23% with the Coalition up two to 36%. However, Labor widened its lead on job security and unemployment, up one to 35% with the Coalition down two to 30%, and holds a commanding lead of 40% to 24% on welfare and benefits.
I thought Labor might see a TPP of 51-49, because that was YouGov’s TPP figure last week. I didn’t expect to see a TPP of 52-48. Maybe Labor’s support has hit a bottom and bounced up a bit just before Christmas.
Interesting how “journalists” in mainstream media make what appear to be knowing statements about poll shifts when it is mostly just speculation without much real or credible insight.
Particularly obvious when 2 different polls/pollsters go in opposite directions.
Sample size 1219, margin of error is 2.9%, which we’d round to 3%.
If the last poll had a similar sample size, the movement is within margin of error. Even so, it’s better to be up 2% than down 2%.
Leroy,
Honest respondents to polls realise that federal Labor are doing a good and competent job.
Like I said in the previous thread, people obviously want ‘I fight Tories!’ Albanese. Enough of this, acting prime ministerial guff, since Tony Abbott the electorate has rewarded performers. Abbott, Morrison, Boris Johnson, Donald Trump… So, if he could combine being extrovert with being competent, he’d have it made, I reckon.
Interesting poll result. No more relevant than the few that preceded it, given how long before the next election.
What is amusing is the hysteria raised by the usual anti-government forces from the horseshoe ends about the previous polls. I can guarantee either silence or a desperate attempt to convince us it is a dead cat bounce.
Steve777:
Sunday, December 17, 2023
[‘Even so, it’s better to be up 2% than down 2%.’]
How can one logically dispute thus? Pepys.
Did I see Channel 7 refer to this poll (glimpsed in passing) in their news bulletins tonight, but reversing the 2PP? Or was that some other poll?
I was walking through the room after the cricket and saw 52/48 for the Libs in the screen?
Either way, my take is a few people saw how close things were getting and asked themselves the obvious question: Do I want Dutton and Scomo and Co running the country? Really?
Mavissays:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 8:54 pm
What goes around comes around:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 8:26 pm
Mavis:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 7:07 pm
A reliable source tells me that HMAS Stuart has ongoing propulsion problems.
[Loose lips sink ships.]
You’re totally right – bad Mavis!
——————————————————————–
I wouldn’t have said anything but we have cut backs here in ASIO. So we can’t afford to buy a new filing cabinet and the current one we have on you is nearly full. So next time please think of tree’s and cost to taxpayers of all those filing cabinets. Before you ask we did put it on a computer but someone hacked it. So if someone rings you, possibly with a Chinese accent, that seems to know more about you then they should, we are very sorry about that.
I’m gathering from this poll that it means that the bad taste of the referendum has likely finally washed out and most voters are prepared to take the Albanese government as they did when they voted for or against them back in May 2022.
Something of a position of “Okay, yeah, 2023 sucked, but, you’ve got another chance for 2024. Don’t blow it.”
Per the upcoming final Redbridge Poll for 2023…
ALP Primary 33%.
Per WB comments above, 2PP ALP 52.8 to 47.2 (Redbridge, not Newspoll). Full details this week, but not a bad ending for the A.L.P. this year. There will be a Roy Morgan Tues around 4PM. That should be just about it for polling this year, unless Essential Media drops a poll on Boxing Day. I am sure everyone will be waiting for this with bated breath.
C@t, michael & Mavis – hello! I’ve been off the grid the past 3 weeks with home reno’s etc.
Decent result for Labor, for the end of 2023. I thought the ALP Primary would drop down late October and Nov, but I think it has bottomed. Albo will be back from leave soon and more importantly will remain within a “stones throw” of Sydney (sorry Canberra), over summer as all good Aussie PM’s should do. Even Howard used to hang around the mid north coast of NSW (I think Hawks Nest), over summer. Anything goes wrong, we need the PM back in Sydney to deal with it, so best he (or she) is within a 300 km orbit. This is the way it should be and not having PM’s swanning around Hawaii or the south of France. They can do that in June.
Keep an eye out on the first polls after OZday and more importantly when parliament kicks off in Feb. This will give bludger’s a proper indication where things are headed for 2024.
Keep in mind, no election before Aug. 4, 2024 (as no DD trigger currently available to the PM).
Link (for Redbridge):
https://twitter.com/KosSamaras/status/1736124856104853776?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Hopefully this isn’t an outlier or a “dead cat bounce” (a term I loathe) but things plateauing out. I still think that being a stable incumbent is Labor’s advantage going into the next election and hitting the panic button and acting erratically will hurt them. Nevertheless, even if things have plateaued and settled down, Labor should still take heed of its recent decline and hopefully wake it from any sleep-walk. Next year will be key to the kind of longevity this government has. The Government needs to reinforce (through both policy and communication) that it’s here for the people (especially the “little guy”) and not out of touch and, while I get they can’t magically make everything better, at least be seen doing something to tackle the cost of living and housing issues that are still a problem.
Apropos of nothing, I don’t know if this has already been said but the Dunkley by-election to be held some time in the new year will be a test for Dutton’s leadership. Currently it has a 6.27% 2PP margin to Labor which, while a longshot in a general election should be gettable by an Opposition party in a by-election. If the Liberal Party fail to pick up that seat at the by-election, that might start causing problems for Dutton’s leadership (especially if Liberals feel they’re tantalisingly close to beating Labor but start believing the Dutton is the factor holding them back.)
52-48 is a pleasing result, even if on the edges of the margin of error. Hopefully it marks the beginning of the fightback.
Albo and his team deserve a break now, maybe enjoy a glass of wine or two. But Labor needs a reset. This year we’ve seen the outlines Liberal-National-Newscorp Coalition’s plan to regain office. Friendly Jordies called it “Death by a thousand cuts”. Others have called it “flood the zone with shit”. Lies, outrage, disinformation and fake crises. Labor needs a counter-strategy. They were caught flat-footed with the Voice Referendum and the Detainee decision. It can’t be allowed to happen again.
“An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor’s primary vote lifting two points to 33 per cent in the past three weeks following resolution of the immigration detainee disaster…”
_____________________
O’Neil will be breathing a huge sigh of relief. People will not be so forgiving next time.
And, of course, my above commentary should be taken with my usual disclaimer that I take individual polls with a grain of salt and try to only analyse over-all trends (except, of course SA state polls because they’re so annoyingly rare.)
Scary thing is the ON cookers on 7%
Tony Barry (Redbridge) says there’s a Freshwater poll coming.
Treasurer Chalmers tells everyone all the news affecting the economy.
Previous mob put all the bad news in the bottom draw. Bad news? What bad news. Everything is going so well.
Amazing how L/NPentacostals remembers the past. All was great, handed over everything in perfect order. Everything going better now is because of Scummo and Co.
Couldn’t balance a budget and ran up $1 Trillion of debt. Long may the teals hold those rich blue ribbon Lib seats so Potato never gets to make the decisions.
Fumbles – One Nation on 7%.
Yes, it’s there. It hovered around 3% a year ago, and crept up to 5% around April this year and is now sitting at 7%. Newspoll is not the only poll showing this figure. This is the future UKIP vote – waiting to be snaffled up.
If the Liberals get a decent swing in Dunkley but don’t win that’s fine, 6.3% is above the average swing for a government vacancy and they can always say a sympathy vote has dampened the swing anyway (never mind that sympathy votes historically don’t exist). But no swing or a very small swing (or worse a swing to Labor) would be trouble.
Incidentally, Dunkley will be the first ever Reps by-election to be caused by the death of a female sitting member.
KB – When will Freshwater Strategy drop a poll? What’s your rough take on how things are tracking. I’ve monitored you, “Marktheballot” and bludger track, this past few months.
Are things OK for Labor or not tracking well. “Marktheballot” (ie: Bryan Palmer) is brutal with his assessment of Labor’s current predicament.
“Resolution of the immigration detainee disaster”
I was reading the other that it was still a disaster.
Make up your minds please, Murdoch hacks.
They too were harping on the small-sample breakdown of TAFE-educated respondents to the RedBridge poll.
I defer to your superior knowledge of that stuff, KB and stand corrected.
Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently been Labor’s worst series, is 50-50: Labor 31%, Coalition 39%, Greens 13%, Albanese leads Dutton 43-39 as preferred PM.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-loses-lead-pm-s-ratings-slump-poll-20231217-p5es0f
Wat Tyler at 10.43 pm and Kevin Bonham at 10.57 pm
What is an adequate swing for Dutton in Dunkley? Couldn’t be less than 5% TPP. Yet the Lib primary in 2022 was 32.5%, lower than the Labor primary in all but one (2013) of the past 14 elections. See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_Division_of_Dunkley
In 2022 there was 11% for the extreme right fragments, and another 2% for Animal Justice. Palmer got 5% (he will not be re-contesting as deregistered) and an independent got nearly 3.9%. It is possible that the summer holidays might limit the by-election field.
Prior to 2022 the Lib primary had dropped below 40% only once, and only just, to 39.9% in 2019. With Dutton as leader and the Vic Libs mired in recriminations, a Lib primary under 40% is likely, and from that base the Lib candidate is very unlikely to win.
Gosh, Freshwater has killed Newspoll, a bit. Would be interested in the survey amount (ie above or below 1500). The LNP on 39% – even some of the regular posters here have said an LNP primary nearing 40% is trouble for the ALP. I think the last Freshwater Poll was around May this year and, as linked above, is published in the Fin Review. Although Newspoll is my “boss of polls”, this one from Freshwater is a shocking result for Labor. Wonder if JWS Research is going to pull something out of the hat this week. We should also have the Redbridge and RoyMorgan primaries within the next 48 hours.
William Bowe says:
Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 11:07 pm
Did I see Channel 7 refer to this poll (glimpsed in passing) in their news bulletins tonight, but reversing the 2PP?
They too were harping on the small-sample breakdown of TAFE-educated respondents to the RedBridge poll.
——————-
In the 1990s we had push polling, now we have push journalism!
Mid first term, BludgerTrack is even-Stevens for Labor on PV since the election and practically even-Stevens for them on TPP, with the latest polls showing an arresting of their recent slide. A return of the Labor Government with a slim majority in its own right is what this indicates right now. The next election is still very much the Government’s to win or lose, on the merits of what they can accomplish economically for middle Australians over the next 18 months.
And push pie-charts.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Finland is “now going to have problems” because it joined NATO, on the same morning that he claimed not to be interested in fighting any NATO members.”
https://kyivindependent.com/putin-new-nato-member-finland-didnt-have-problems-before-but-now-it-will/
I’ve added a fair bit of detail to the post from the Freshwater Strategy poll.
Ha ha all the labor luvvies on here bragging about the Newspoll the freshwater poll brings it home.
Dumb and dumber as immigration ministers does not cut it.60% think immigration levels are two high says this poll.Watch that increase as the unemployment rate goes higher as it is now .
The mining industry and stokes national media going to war with labor over IR will cost serious votes just getting started.
Rat Catcher:
“Dumb and dumber as immigration ministers does not cut it.60% think immigration levels are two high says this poll.”
Whoops! 🙂
People in glass houses shouldn’t throw ‘dumb and dumber’ insults.
“The mining industry and stokes national media going to war with labor over IR will cost serious votes”
The Stokes national media going to war in support of a war criminal* has cost Stokes serious dollars.
* And the Federal Court did so hold.
39% of Freshwater respondents had not heard of Angus Taylor.
Well done, Angus!
‘Tax ombudsman criticises ATO’s robotax for not considering ‘financial vulnerability’ of recipients’
‘She described a mass ATO mail-out advising people of the old debts as having “poor judgment”, in part because of the lack of detail provided in the communication.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/17/tax-ombudsman-criticises-atos-robotax-for-not-considering-financial-vulnerability-of-recipients
“And push pie-charts.”
Who are the “Labor arty’s”?
Are 38.4% of Australians still against thespians getting married in 2023?
More men come forward with allegations about Alan Jones. As I said before, in these matters it often only takes one or two to speak publicly to give others the confidence to speak out.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/classic-abuse-of-power-more-men-come-forward-with-claims-about-alan-jones-behaviour-20231217-p5es03.html
Physicist Bob Coecke: ‘It’s easier to convince kids than adults about quantum mechanics’ — Zeeya Merali
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/dec/16/physicist-bob-coecke-its-easier-to-convince-kids-than-adults-about-quantum-mechanics
Confessions @ #5 Monday, December 18th, 2023 – 5:59 am
I just feel sorry for the original accuser, who will probably be the one that has to give evidence in court in the Defamation trial Alan Jones has brought against 9Fax.
Sometimes after training, Walker alleges Jones would suggest the schoolboy shower in Jones’ own bathroom, while he sat on the toilet talking.
“So you get out of the shower and you have to sit on his bed and that’s when he’d do the usual spiel of, ‘Oh Scotty, you know how much you mean to me. You could be an Olympic runner. You just have to listen to me. You’ve got to stop this nonsense, spending so much time with women. They just want to be f—ed and have babies.’”
😯
C@t:
If it gets to trial that is.
Alan Jones. Has. Got. No. Taste! Nothing matches, even in the mismatched matched way that Gen Z do it these days:
If the lib/nats and their propaganda media units ,could not get the lib/nats combined primary vote to over 40% after all the propaganda , they never will with Dutton as leader
Lars Von Tier , FUBAR, Micheal , Melbourne Mammoth , Steelydan, Taylormade ,Rex Douglas
Can now likely see Peter Dutton leadership is getting near all over stage , Angus Taylor to be the leader of the Liberal party by 2024 years end or even earlier in 2024 depends if Labor primary vote in the opinion polling over takes lib/nats ,
Scott: “Angus Taylor to be the leader of the Liberal party by 2024 years end …”
His staffers have downloaded a spreadsheet of support for his leadership bid.
It says he has 857 votes in the party room …
Weeks-old government dubbed ‘anti-Māori’ as culture wars rage in New Zealand
https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/12/16/world/new-zealand-nationals-luxon-maori-intl-hnk/index.html?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17028439757277&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2023%2F12%2F16%2Fworld%2Fnew-zealand-nationals-luxon-maori-intl-hnk%2Findex.html
” By CNN
New Zealand’s new right-leaning government took more than a month to take shape, but Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his coalition partners are now racing to strip back policies that had earned former leader Jacinda Ardern plaudits worldwide amongst progressives.
While a swing to the right was predicted, the pace of change under the Nationals’ Luxon has startled observers, and his coalition’s moves to ditch policies seen to favor the country’s indigenous people has seen critics quickly accuse them of being “anti-Māori.”
Under Luxon, the government is proposing to dissolve the country’s Māori Health Authority, rollback the use of the Māori language, and end the country’s limits on tobacco sales – a move Māori leaders had sought to cut high rates of smoking among their people.
“Your attacks on our culture have motivated our standing in solidarity,” the co-leader of the Te Pati Māori party, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, blasted across the parliamentary aisle in the capital Wellington this month.
The same day, the Māori King, Tūheitia Potatau Te Wherowhero VII, issued a royal proclamation calling for a “national hui” – a coming together of the country’s indigenous people, to discuss “holding the new coalition government to account.”
Many New Zealanders feel the same, with tens of thousands of people turning out across the country for anti-government demonstrations hastily arranged by Ngarewa-Packer’s party.
“It was a dignified shot across the bow,” Ngarewa-Packer told CNN of the protests on December 5. “To say we won’t accept this. And that this is what we can do in a short amount of time.”
New Zealand’s new government scraps world-leading smoking ban to fund tax cuts
”
Scottsays:
Monday, December 18, 2023 at 6:36 am
If the lib/nats and their propaganda media units ,could not get the lib/nats combined primary vote to over 40% after all the propaganda , they never will with Dutton as leader
Lars Von Tier , FUBAR, Micheal , Melbourne Mammoth , Steelydan, Taylormade ,Rex Douglas
Can now likely see Peter Dutton leadership is getting near all over stage , Angus Taylor to be the leader of the Liberal party by 2024 years end or even earlier in 2024 depends if Labor primary vote in the opinion polling over takes lib/nats ,
”
Scott
Don’t be unreasonable like the names you mentioned. 🙂
Trump quotes Putin in bid to portray Biden as authoritarian
“Even Vladimir Putin … says that Biden’s, and this is a quote, politically motivated persecution of his political rival is very good for Russia,” Trump said.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/16/trump-quotes-putin-in-bid-to-portray-biden-as-authoritarian-00132157
“DURHAM, New Hampshire — Donald Trump on Saturday turned to the words of an authoritarian in his latest effort to paint President Joe Biden as one.
“Even Vladimir Putin … says that Biden’s, and this is a quote, politically motivated persecution of his political rival is very good for Russia because it shows the rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach others about democracy,” the former president told a packed stadium in New Hampshire.
Trump also basked in praise from Hungary’s authoritarian prime minister Viktor Orbán.
“Viktor Orbán, the highly respected prime minister of Hungary said Trump is the man who can save the western world,” Trump said. Later on he touted his relationship with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, “who is very nice.”
“He’s not so fond of this administration, but he’s fond of me,” Trump said.
CNN, per Ven:
‘… the pace of change under the Nationals’ Luxon has startled observers …’
Christopher Luxon = Campbell Newman 2.0?