Roy Morgan might plough on this week with a poll to be dropped next Wednesday or so, but what follows are most likely the last items of polling we will see for the year. The Australian traditionally drops aggregated Newspoll breakdowns in the dead zone after Christmas, but it will only have three polls to aggregate from on this occasion, unless it supplements them somehow.
• RedBridge Group has a federal poll showing Labor leading 52.8-47.2 (in from 53.5-46.5 in the last such poll in early November), though seemingly all reportage of the poll has painted it as disastrous for Labor because the small sample of respondents with trades qualifications has the Coalition ahead. The primary votes are Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady) and Greens 13% (down one). The accompanying report includes extensive further questions on national direction, issue salience and immigration. The poll was conducted December 6 to 11 from an unusually large sample of 2010.
• The latest weekly poll from Roy Morgan has a tie on two-party preferred, erasing Labor’s 51-49 lead over the previous two weeks. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up one-and-a-half), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down two-and-a-half) and One Nation 4.5% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1720.
• The Australian had further results from Newspoll on the leaders’ character traits, which it published in a comprehensive display showing earlier numbers for the results going back to 2008 which is worth seeking out if you’re interested in this sort of thing. Anthony Albanese had higher ratings for trustworthy (49% to 41%), in touch (46% to 41%), caring (61% to 45%), likeable (57% to 39%) and having a vision for Australia (59% to 55%), and was less likely to be seen as arrogant (45% to 57%). Peter Dutton led on experienced (70% to 66%), decisive and strong (58% to 48%) and understanding the major issues (57% to 54%).
• Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles resigned yesterday after nineteen months in the job, amid revelations she had failed to declare a conflict of interest relating to shares in mining company South 32. It presumably didn’t help that a RedBridge Group poll, conducted in the middle of last month from a sample of 601, had Labor trailing the Country Liberals by 40.6% to 19.7% (although the poll found Labor doing little better federally, and its age breakdowns included the implausible finding that the gap was 40% to 11% among the 18-to-39 age cohort). Names mentioned as possible contenders are her deputy, Nicole Manison, Infrastructure Minister Joel Bowden and Attorney-General Chansey Paech.
‘Real Men Want to Go to Tehran’: Bush, Pre-Emption and the Iranian Nuclear Challenge
https://www.jstor.org/stable/4122038
That quote was attributed to Wolfowitz and adapted by Bush Doctrine.
I read the full quote somewhere: everyone can go to Baghdad but only reall men want to go to Tehran.
Momma
If you were commenting on this site in 2012/13 you were commenting under a different name or I never noticed you which sounds doubtful.
“Take out the Iranian missile factories. Forget about the middle men. Keep taking out their ability to produce weapons till they come to the negotiation table. Then at the negotiation table everyone should give some ground in the name of peace.”
It is really quite astounding the west doesn’t suffer significantly greater number and significantly greater impact of terrorist attack.
Lets just bomb them to ensure our great wealth can bypass some of the poorest places on earth safely.
As was observed in heart of darkness, and it seems our greed and evil knows no pause, “the horror, the horror”
‘WeWantPaul says:
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 8:25 pm
“Take out the Iranian missile factories. Forget about the middle men. Keep taking out their ability to produce weapons till they come to the negotiation table. Then at the negotiation table everyone should give some ground in the name of peace.”
It is really quite astounding the west doesn’t suffer significantly greater number and significantly greater impact of terrorist attack.
Lets just bomb them to ensure our great wealth can bypass some of the poorest places on earth safely.
As was observed in heart of darkness, and it seems our greed and evil knows no pause, “the horror, the horror”’
—————————
Ummmm….
At least some of the shipping and trade goods being held up altogether or being made more expensive are goods intended for countries which have large populations of incredibly poor people in littoral states of the Indian Ocean and thence into South-east Asia.
The Houthis are engaged in deliberate acts which, by any reading of international law, are a casus belli.
(Imagine the hoo ha if, say, Australia suddenly started firing missiles and launching drone swarms against shipping in the Taiwan Strait or the Malacca Strait).
What heart of darkness has to do with arseholes like the Houthi taking it upon themselves to try to start a general war is beyond me… except if you are implying that it is the blood thirsty Houthi leadership that has lost touch with humanity.
Perhaps the Houthis would, instead, do better to actually run their holdings by banning khat production and re-directing irrigation to growing food for their starving women and children?
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 8:10 pm
—————————————————–
Sounds like a good story. Though i don’t remember that happening when Israel took out a Iranian missile factory last January.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blast-heard-military-plant-irans-central-city-isfahan-state-media-2023-01-28/
C@t has been posting here at least as long as I have (January 2012) ⬛
I met Cat in about 2012 and she was a long term contributor then.
I was Kambah Mick in those days.
The much maligned political Canberra is the offspring of the unfortunate relationship between Sydney and Melbourne.
Dan Andrews used this fact very wisely to remain leader in both Melbourne and Victoria so dominantly, for so long and with such success.
Steelydan @ #1514 Tuesday, December 26th, 2023 – 8:25 pm
I was speaking in general wrt the historical context of the Hugo Chavez years when he was in power and then went off the rails badly.
I’ve had a look at Poll Bludger from 2013 and I can’t see you there. Nor could I see myself. Which is weird because I thought I had been here for the 2nd Labor Term under Julia Gillard. Oh well. Whatever.
I did see Steve777, Confessions, sprocket_, Centre and briefly. 🙂
This happened yesterday:
An Israeli airstrike outside the Syrian capital Damascus on Monday killed a senior adviser in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, three security sources and Iranian state media said.
The sources told Reuters that the adviser, known as Sayyed Razi Mousavi, was responsible for coordinating the military alliance between Syria and Iran.
Iran has sent hundreds of Guards as “advisers” to help train and organise thousands of Shiite militia fighters from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan to back the government in the Syrian conflict. Fighters from Lebanon’s Hezbollah have also worked closely with Iranian military commanders in Syria.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israeli-airstrike-kills-senior-iranian-revolutionary-guards-general-in-syria-20231226-p5etlv.html
This is all Iran has come up with so far:
Doesn’t seem as though Iran has done anything since 2011:
Just kept on going with their masterplan.
WeWantPaulsays:
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 8:25 pm
As was observed in heart of darkness, and it seems our greed and evil knows no pause, “the horror, the horror”
————————————————————–
Iran missile factories supply weapons to the worlds most evil and dangerous Imperialistic power Russia. Anyone who supports Russia in the genocide of the Ukrainian people is truly evil.
https://cepa.org/article/morality-shouldnt-get-in-the-way-russias-genocidal-state-media/
“Iran missile factories supply …”
Simplistic, idiotic, evil.
Entropy @ #1524 Tuesday, December 26th, 2023 – 9:32 pm
Some people are just too blinkered in their hatred of the West to see it.
WeWantPaulsays:
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 9:38 pm
“Iran missile factories supply …”
Simplistic, idiotic, evil.
—————————————————-
If Putin brings about the rebuilding of the USSR in the image of he’s hero Stalin. You and your Tankie mates can go off and live in your paradise. Just count me out of it. I have no interest in living in a imperialistic empire built on the bones of millions of innocent civilians.
Batcave to poll bludger.Newspoll via oz has a data dump on polling.
” I have no interest in living in a imperialistic empire built on the bones of millions innocent civilians.”
The irony.
Exactly what do you mean by tankie?
I get that it is a sledge.
And I get that it is lie that I support Putin, but is that all it is? A dumb lie?
Cause that is all I get from it, but you do it so often I keep wondering if there is something I’m missing.
Pied piper @ #1566 Tuesday, December 26th, 2023 – 9:48 pm
I’m sure we’ll have a new thread by tomorrow. Mr Bowe predicted the Newspoll data dump.
WeWantPaulsays:
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 9:55 pm
” I have no interest in living in a imperialistic empire built on the bones of millions innocent civilians.”
The irony.
Exactly what do you mean by tankie?
————————————————————–
A “Tankie” is a English term for those on the left in the West who supported Stalin when he sent the tanks into Budapest in 1956. I’ve attached the link to a guide book if you need to know more.
https://www.amazon.com.au/How-Tankie-Anti-Imperialists-Guide-Modern-ebook/dp/B0BMW6CZHW
“A “Tankie” is a English term for those on the left in the West who supported Stalin when he sent the tanks into Budapest in 1956. I’ve attached the link to a guide book if you need to know more.”
So a dumb lie that I supported someone more than a decade before I was borne. Or a weak analogous lie that I support Putin based on what I guess is a story from history that is more CIA and Committee on Unamerican Activities than it is reality.
So not just a dumb lie, a really dumb lie. Well if it is the best you can do, and based on all the evidence it is, you do you I guess.
WeWantPaul @ #1570 Tuesday, December 26th, 2023 – 9:42 pm
Not Stalin. He was dead by then. The Soviets were under Khrushchev during the Hungarian Uprising of 1956 (and under Brezhnev when they invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968 – an event which also popularised the term.)
WeWantPaulsays:
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 10:12 pm
———————————————————
That was the words origin. It is now used to describe those on the west who support Putin’s imperialistic ambition to reform the USSR. Though i will now stop this conversation, as it is getting a bit boring.
Quote: “It’s better to walk alone than to walk with a fool!”
Wat Tylersays:
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 10:29 pm
————————————————
Thanks for bringing something useful to this discussion. I’ll try and remember to get that right next time. Though i’ve decided that i don’t really want to have any further discussion with WWP on this topic, for some reason.
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“The term “tankie” was originally used by dissident Marxist–Leninists to describe members of the Communist Party of Great Britain (CPGB) who followed the party line of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU). Specifically, it was used to distinguish party members who spoke out in defense of the Soviet use of tanks to crush the Hungarian Revolution of 1956 and the 1968 Prague Spring uprising, or who more broadly adhered to pro-Soviet positions.[7][8]”
You as a dissident Marxist-Leninist is hilarious, and about as likely as me being a communist in GB before I was born, but other than that it seems to be nothing but a dumb insult to imply a lie, which was the rather empty starting to this little circle of learning.
Enjoy your evening.
All Iranian missile and drone production facilities should be taken out completely. Period. And all their nuclear research facilities as well. Time to pull this snake’s fangs before they kill any more civilians. Tehran is a medieval theocracy playing Armageddon with weapons it hasn’t the moral compass to control responsibly.
“Not Stalin. He was dead by then. The Soviets were under Khrushchev during the Hungarian Uprising of 1956 (and under Brezhnev when they invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968 – an event which also popularised the term.)”
Stalin was a key player in the sense the uprising swiftly did away with a statute of him.
“All Iranian missile and drone production facilities should be taken out completely. Period. And all their nuclear research facilities as well. ”
Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan went so very well you want to have another go? FMD.
Macarthursays:
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 10:53 pm
Your preaching to choir here, but amen.
Though don’t tell that to guy who could really do with a walk down a Damascus road sometime. Though if you suggested that he would ask why are you referring to something that occurred 2000 years before i was born. In fact it is nearly impossible to find a term in the English language that has arisen during his lifetime.
C@t, 11/5/2012:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2012/05/11/morgan-phone-poll-budget-poll-face-to-face-poll/comment-page-3/#comment-1255427
Has Laurie Oaks signalled to his colleagues, “Enough!”.
Lots of once-familiar names back then, public figures and PB’ers.
WeWantPaul @ Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 11:01 pm:
[me] “All Iranian missile and drone production facilities should be taken out completely. Period. And all their nuclear research facilities as well. ”
[WWP] “Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan went so very well you want to have another go? FMD.”
================
I just want Iran taken the fuck out. I don’t care who does it. I reckon a clear majority of Iranians would cheer the fall of the Tehran regime to boot, though that wouldn’t be a necessary consequence of demilitarisation as far as I am concerned. Just take away their ability to arm terrorist states and state-like bodies, and I’ll be satisfied.
WeWantPaul @ Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 8:25 pm:
“It is really quite astounding the west doesn’t suffer significantly greater number and significantly greater impact of terrorist attack.
Let’s just bomb them to ensure our great wealth can bypass some of the poorest places on earth safely.”
===========•
WWP, does this quote of yours mean you think merchant shipping ought to be fair game for pirates, terrorists or rogue states?
“Let’s just bomb them to ensure our great wealth can bypass some of the poorest places on earth safely.”
================================================
So the poorest places on earth have their own fleet of Shahed drones now. Once being poor mean’t you had rudimentary shelter and lived hand to mouth. Now it seems to mean you can only afford Shahed drones but not Kinzhal’s. Fortunately for them Shaheds actually work, unlike Kinzhal’s, which are extremely expensive rubbish.
* March 16, 2003 – “I think things have gotten so bad inside Iraq, from the standpoint of the Iraqi people, my belief is we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators.” – Dick Cheney, then U.S. vice president
Reuters
Middle East
Iraq War: quotes from the conflict and its aftermath
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iraq-war-quotes-conflict-its-aftermath-2023-03-15/#:~:text=If%20this%20is%20not%20civil,re%20winning.%22%20%2D%20Bush.
* Jan. 29, 2002 – “States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world.” – U.S. President George W. Bush referring to Iraq, Iran and North Korea in his State of the Union Address.
* Feb. 5, 2003 – “My colleagues, every statement I make today is backed up by sources, solid sources. These are not assertions. What we’re giving you are facts and conclusions based on solid intelligence.” – Colin Powell, then U.S. Secretary of State, to the U.N. Security Council describing what he said was evidence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction that proved to be wrong.
“WWP, does this quote of yours mean you think merchant shipping ought to be fair game for pirates, terrorists or rogue states?”
No, but thank you for at least asking it is a question. It means I do not support slaughtering your way to peace and justice, I don’t support it when Putin says that is what he is doing in Ukraine. I don’t support it in Yemen. I didn’t support it in Iraq. I didn’t support it in Afghanistan.
You could say that I just don’t support wars of aggression, even when the otherside are a different race or really really poor, or just don’t look like me.
It is almost like I’m consistent.
WWP, thank you, I just wanted to check with you before jumping to conclusions.
“Yemen has long been one of the poorest countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and is now one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. The fighting raging since early 2015 has devastated its economy, leading to severe food insecurity, and destroying critical infrastructure.”
Hey @wewantpaul-
Go scorchers
Vensays:
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 11:30 pm
* March 16, 2003 – “I think things have gotten so bad inside Iraq, from the standpoint of the Iraqi people, my belief is we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators.” – Dick Cheney, then U.S. vice president
————————————————————–
While i’m no fan of Dick Cheney he was right about that. The Shiite and Kurds certainly supported USA over the Iraq Government. Only the Sunni minority went with their Government.
WeWantPaulsays:
Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 11:38 pm
“Yemen has long been one of the poorest countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and is now one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. The fighting raging since early 2015 has devastated its economy, leading to severe food insecurity, and destroying critical infrastructure.”
——————————————————
I doubt it is the starving people there that are firing the Shahed drones. Though if you look through posts, myself and Macarthur sent, neither wanted to fire on Yemen. It was Iran missiles factories that we suggested should be destroyed not Yemen militia. Also i hoped that firing on Iran missile factories would lead to negotiations. In which Iran agreed to control its somewhat crazy allies and USA agreed to control its genocidal allies too. Hopefully resulting in no more ships sunk or children murdered. As i don’t support genocides no matter whose carrying them out.
Maybe Biden should declare himself a dictator indefinitely.
Not sure if Kevin Bonham’s Christmas bonus post has been mentioned here over the holidays: but anyway, for those following Newspoll at home:
“Historically … when the Newspoll 2PP moves, it will probably not move the same way again next time. When a government’s 2PP polling has gone up, 52.5% of the time it has gone down in the next poll compared to 26.3% up again and 21.2% no change. When a government has gone down, 52.3% of the time it has gone up next time, compared to 22.7% down again and 24.9% no change.”
What goes up must come down, it seems. And conversely.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/12/can-twitter-polls-predict-newspoll.html
Just caught this from a few days ago.
”It looks like Gina Rinehart is getting very poor value for the millions of dollars she has paid the Institute of Public Affairs. Or maybe not. It would depend on whether she wants the right-wing ‘think tank’ to produce credible research or misleading rubbish.”
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/12/23/michael-pascoe-gina-rinehart-is-being-ripped-off-by-the-ipa
New thread.