As it usually does in the post-Christmas quiet spot, The Australian today brings us aggregated results from recent Newspoll surveys with voting intention and leaders’ ratings broken down by state and various demographic indicators. Unfortunately, only three polls have been conducted since the exercise was last conducted in mid-October, resulting in an unusually modest overall sample of 3655, breaking down to as little as 277 in the case of South Australia (with no repeat of the October aggregate’s inclusion of a Tasmanian result).
With due caution for the wide error margins, the state breakdowns are remarkable for how close they are to the results of the 2022 election, with Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (compared with 51.4-48.6 at the election), 55-45 in Victoria (54.8-45.2), 54-46 in Western Australia (55.0-45.0) and 55-45 in South Australia (54.0-46.0), and the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (54.0-46.0). The gender breakdowns unusually find Labor in a slightly stronger position among men (leading 53-47, out from 51-49 in the October aggregate) than women (in from 56-44 to 52-48), but I would hesitate to read much into it at this stage. You can find most of the results by clicking on the relevant tabs in the BludgerTrack poll data feature.
UPDATE: There is also today a similar exercise from Nine Newspapers from its last three monthly Resolve Strategic polls, though the interest level is limited in this case by the fact that breakdowns for the three largest states are published with each poll. Whereas Newspoll finds no state swinging by more than 1% compared with the election, Resolve Strategic, which has been markedly more favourable for Labor than other pollsters, records a very wide range of results. The pollster does not provide two-party preferred numbers, but my own estimates suggest swings to Labor of around 3.5% in New South Wales, 3% in Victoria, 6.5% in Queensland and 9% in South Australia, and to the Coalition of around 2% in Western Australia. Also featured are breakdowns by three age cohorts, which follow the usual patterns.
Something very interesting to read tomorrow…
Maybe focus on real crime rather than some keyboard loser who has breached copyright
I wonder if the Murdoch Cult ™ will drop their ‘Captain Planet’ shade thrown on Pat Cummins after his match winning performance today, to add to his stellar leadership qualities.
So what if he wants to have a liveable planet for his children, and those of his fellow Australians? I’m sure Pat would say wtte “FU Rupert, and all your LNP running dogs!”
As good a product of Western Sydney (and the Blue Mountains) there hasn’t been.
shellbell @ #652 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 7:02 pm
Isn’t that real crime?
Confessions @ #650 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 5:50 pm
That was the accepted reality back in the day
shellbell @ #661 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 7:02 pm
A male with no understanding of stochastic terrorism of women, would say that. 😐
Pat Cummins as a Teal to take another Liberal seat? It’s too much to hope for that he would join Labor, I guess.
Pat Cummins for Lindsay! 😀
shellbell @ #661 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 7:02 pm
“Maybe focus on real crime rather than some keyboard loser who has breached copyright”
I’m not a lawyer but who decides which crimes get ignored and which get prosecuted?
I would have thought any judge who had given multiple warnings would be annoyed by repeated breaches of his orders.
Pat Cummins would have to be the most overtly progressive cricket captain I have seen since Ian Chappell. He and Mitch Starc also spoke in favour of fair wages for female cricketers. He defended Khawaja on his Palestinian message too. I have a lot of respect for Cummins.
I think Pat would make a genuinely credible political candidate if he was interested, just as Pocock has proven for he Teals. Except I think Cummins is much closer to Labor values than Pocock.
ocratessays:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 7:34 pm
He and Mitch Starc
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Though Cummins had no vested interest in taking that stance, Starc obviously did.
Entropy
True re Starc/Healy.
Cummins though has proven he is willing and able to defend a position based on principles of social justice. That is why he attracts cries of “woke” from the Murdochverse.
Cries of “woke loser” have gone quiet this year 🙂
This is a very easy to understand explanation of the latest legal moves by Jack Smith to preclude certain evidence being advanced by Trump’s lawyers to the jury in his Jan 6 trial:
https://youtu.be/ZEb7Q757bMc?si=6WsU9DrgpGF9i5zJ
Socrates @ #671 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 7:42 pm
Cries of ‘woke’ are simply jibes from people without a heart directed at people who have one.
I have yet to encounter a right wing loon who can define woke.
Contempt is a court “crime” such that court finite resources will be taken up dealing with this knob at the expense of other court activities.
Plus he will probably seek legal aid. I suppose he could crowd fund from his fellow travellers.
Then a day or two in court plus a judge knocking out some lengthy survey of the law of contempt.
All for some good behaviour bond.
As well he is not being charged for his reprehensible beliefs rather for using a court recording.
For all the mocking of Victorian cricket, Victoria’s place as the heart of cricket administration should not be forgotten.
Rex Douglassays:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 7:00 pm
Something very interesting to read tomorrow…
Scam of the Year now declared by @MichaelWestBiz.Who’s influencing @AlboMP? Wake up tomorrow morning to a full analysis of the PM’s diary, just released under #FOI.
_____________________
Probably some union official would be my guess.
Sheldon, Burrow, Combet. Take your pick.
I think I might have mentioned here I was travelling with some so called cricket fans during the Ashes series.
They hated Cummins and loved Langer.
Almost certainly voted Liberal as well.
Bad judges of almost everything.
Oh, shock, horror, the leader of a party established by unions and supported by unions listens to unions.
Of course he does. And what do we get?’
15% for aged care workers.
Support for an increase in the minimum wage.
Wage theft criminalized.
Superannuation theft criminalized.
Massive increase in childcare support.
Gender pay gap narrowed.
Hundreds of thousands of free TAFE places.
Protection against sexual harassment in the workplace.
Strengthening of OH&S in the workplace.
The end of Dutton’s civilization!
Hafeez hand missing *the Pakistan losing cricket coach is having a whinge.Ya lost matey!
*the 12th man.
Err Not free tafe it’s payed for by the tax payer!
I note that the latest research on krill densities and distributions shows substantial perturbations which are probably a harbinger of chaos in Antarctica’s ecosystems. There is some correlation between the perturbations, temperature changes, and changes in sea-ice. There may be also a link to between the changes in krill and the massive emperor penguin chick mortality this year.
I cannot emphasize too highly that if you want to see Antarctica do so now.
There are lots of luxury cruises in diesel-powered ships available. You would probably also need to fly to departure and return ports in different parts of the southern hemisphere. Day trips in small boats are not electric-driven. But hey.
Naturally, gourmet food from all over the world is served.
Roll on the SMRs!
‘Pied Piper. says:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 8:40 pm
Hafeez hand missing *the Pakistan losing cricket coach is having a whinge.Ya lost matey!
*the 12th man.
Err Not free tafe it’s payed for by the tax payer!’
——————————–
Dutton’s Darling simply does not get skills capital and the benefits therefrom. What a surprise.
In Dutton’s world the only people who do not do user pays are capitalist cronies, sleeve tuggers and the outright crooks that infest their governments. The NACC will clean a few of them out but a conga line of them are in training as we speak.
Shellbell:
If I were instructing you, I wouldn’t make the same mistake twice.
_______________________________________
Four days of being sin-binned by weather – bugger!
Pant Cummins grandparents were the children of Irish immigrants who settled in Murringo, my old home town. Some of the clan returned to the Hawksbury area and his parents then relocated to the Blue Mountains.
As a teenager I used to carry his great aunt into and out of the Church each Sunday.
Murringo has some reputation for cricket for such a small village. Bill O Reilly lived there in the WW1 period prior to moving to Wingello and a lasting enmity with Bradman who was born at Yeo Yeo near Stockinbingal about 100 kms to the west. Nathan Lyons comes from there now as did successful County cricketer Barry Saxby father of Kerry although I think she was born in Ballina where he was transferred as a teacher. Another bloke from there made the Australian schoolboys team in the late 60s.
Something else we won’t be reading tomorrow. What about the risks to Australia from global warming that the Albanese government wants to kept hidden from Australians?
Too hot to handle: climate crisis report so secret Albanese government won’t even reveal date it was completed
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/30/office-of-national-intelligence-climate-crisis-security-threats-report-anthony-albanese-labor-government-refuses-to-release
“The Australian government is refusing to release its secret report on how the climate crisis will fuel national security threats and is also refusing to say when it was completed.
The government insists the date, too, is classified. The approach has sparked claims of a “cult of secrecy in Canberra”.
Anthony Albanese ordered the Office of National Intelligence (ONI) last year to investigate national security threats posed by global heating, in line with an election promise.
When it notified the United Nations of Australia’s stronger 2030 emissions reduction target, the government trumpeted its commitment to “an urgent climate risk assessment of the implications of climate change for national security”.
So far, however, the government has rebuffed calls to release the assessment – or even a sanitised public version, as it did with the defence strategic review.
In a new response to Senate questions on notice, the prime minister confirmed the ONI’s climate assessment was finalised “within the last 12 months”. But Albanese added: “The specific timing of the assessment board is classified.”
Five other questions from the Greens’ defence spokesperson, David Shoebridge, were answered with an identical response: “The content and judgments of the assessment are classified.””
I expect it has to do with spending money. It is OK to spend $368billion on 7 unnecessary nuclear powered attack submarines, to be delivered…..?
But the much bigger risk to Australians safety from wild weather, as we have seen recently in the Brisbane, Gold Coast, Cairns, Lismore, Hawkesbury, the 2019/2020 bushfires ( that report of strategy for preparedness for this 2023/2024 bushfire season is also classified secret ), all the other locations at risk,…..apparently it is not important enough to tell Australians what Labor will do.
Michael West Media
https://michaelwest.com.au › albos-s…
Albo’s Secret Hose: bureaucrats block bushfire info as Australia braces for a deadly summer
29 Oct 2023 — Rex Patrick examines the Federal Government’s refusal to share emergency management information with the public. Fire danger. The 2023-24 fire …
I guess the plan is do nothing. And pay any larger cost after the event. And commiserate with any relatives if there are deaths.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 8:47 pm
I note that the latest research on krill densities and distributions shows substantial perturbations which are probably a harbinger of chaos in Antarctica’s ecosystems. There is some correlation between the perturbations, temperature changes, and changes in sea-ice. There may be also a link to between the changes in krill and the massive emperor penguin chick mortality this year.
————————————————————————–
Atlantic conveyer belt current failing.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/amoc-atlantic-ocean-conveyer-belt-climate-change
These currents all feed into each other too. Melting of sea ice causing circumpolar current to weaken.
https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.170294047.79411138/v1
The mixing of nutrient rich deep waters not occurring as much. Biological biomass capacity of ocean surface water is thus decreasing. Hence even with out over fishing, which is totally rife, the food harvesting potential from the ocean will decrease significantly.
Soc
Interesting!
Geoff Lawson appeared in election ads for Malcolm Frazer in 1982/1983. I was being a bit grumpy, and said despite Lawson being a demon fast bowler, I was not happy with Lawson’s political stance, but my grandfather said “Well, no one expects Australia’s first eleven to be a hotbed of socialism.”*
Perhaps the first eleven are now more egalitarian – and this is a great thing.
*Fast forward to 2001, when I started my job at UNSW, in the building next to UNSW Optometry. There was a cafe between us, which I went to for many coffees, and also many lunches. Geoff Lawson had proudly signed the wall – as a student of UNSW Optometry.
I was proud of his cricketing prowess, but always had this slight niggle that Geoff Lawson had supported the Thatcherism that Malcolm Frazer was determined to introduce to Australia.
Irenesays:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 9:15 pm
Rex Patrick examines the Federal Government’s refusal to share emergency management information with the public. Fire danger. The 2023-24 fire …
I guess the plan is do nothing. And pay any larger cost after the event. And commiserate with any relatives if there are deaths.
—————————————————————–
I’m not sure where you live Irene. In the state formerly known as “The Peoples Republic of Danistan” our state Government runs the emergency response not the Federal Government. So which states are you suggesting have outsources flood, bushfire or even drought response to the Feds?.
Recognising the publisher of this site, “time please”, and may be to help change the tone, I’d like to recognise “Andante, Andante”, from the Super Trouper Album, one actress James brought back out, https://open.spotify.com/track/1JnHZagDFvrT2lx4QovSOo?si=eAbXgLqYT1CRLN2CG7kZag, from the latest Abba movie, as a mood changer
Best wishes for 2024, Bludgers!
Irene:
[‘Friday, December 29, 2023 at 9:15 pm’]
I’m thinking too many words. No offence dear Irene. Pepsy.
VCT Et3e says:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 9:33 pm
Recognising the publisher of this site, “time please”, and may be to help change the tone, I’d like to recognise “Andante, Andante”, from the Super Trouper Album, one actress James brought back out, https://open.spotify.com/track/1JnHZagDFvrT2lx4QovSOo?si=eAbXgLqYT1CRLN2CG7kZag, from the latest Abba movie, as a mood changer
Best wishes for 2024, Bludgers!
____________________
My piano teacher explained Andante very differently! I prefer this version 🙂
Irenesays:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 9:15 pm
In fact i gather the states are even responsible for quarantine of Cruise Ships bringing in some plague or other and not the Feds. So even after Morrison had said this:
“Similarly, the arrangements for cruise ships will have the same effect in specific cases where we have Australians on cruise ships. Then there will be some bespoke arrangements that we put in place directly under the command of the Australian Border Force to ensure that the relevant protections are put in place. We’re seeking to assist Australians to come home by ensuring that the flights continue to run, but when they come home, they’ll be spending another 14 days in self isolation. And so I’ve covered also the issue of the cruises. ”
It turned out it was Glady that was responsible for the Ruby Princess. So moral of this story is even when it sounds like the Federal Government is saying it is responsible for something. It want be if it all goes pear shape, well that certainly was the case under Morrison.
I can’t take Irene seriously, I’m afraid. Reminds me of daretotread. All wild exaggerations and accusations. 😐
Cut Snake @ #684 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 9:08 pm
Thanks for that, CS! You must’ve been a strapping young lad to have been assigned that church task.
shellbell @ #675 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 7:54 pm
Sometimes lessons need to be taught for the least of crimes with the most moral point to them.
The charge, and criminality, would be the same if the bloke downloaded it for a uni project.
Who knew that the UK maintains a wine cellar “to provide guests of the government, from home and overseas, with wines of appropriate quality at reasonable cost”? Jolly decent, what?
And how much of this ‘appropriate quality’ wine was consumed on government business during the COVID years? Well may you ask …
‘The stock list was originally meant to be published in “early 2023”, was subsequently scheduled for July and then ministers later said it would appear in the autumn.
‘The last update was from Andrew Mitchell, a Foreign Office minister, who answered a parliamentary question saying it would be published “before the Christmas recess” – but it never materialised by the end of the parliamentary term.’
Shades of Monty Python’s cheese shop skit.
In vino veritas?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/29/uk-ministers-asked-to-explain-fourth-delay-to-covid-wine-cellar-report
New thread.
Grime @ #614 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 5:33 pm
Ah test cricket,what a game.
https://apple.news/Axo1l8yIxQrySo95CxwN1ug, Holy Land’s occupying power taken to UN ICJ