Newspoll aggregates: October to December (open thread)

State breakdowns from the last three Newspoll surveys suggest two-party preferred is back where it started at the 2022 election.

As it usually does in the post-Christmas quiet spot, The Australian today brings us aggregated results from recent Newspoll surveys with voting intention and leaders’ ratings broken down by state and various demographic indicators. Unfortunately, only three polls have been conducted since the exercise was last conducted in mid-October, resulting in an unusually modest overall sample of 3655, breaking down to as little as 277 in the case of South Australia (with no repeat of the October aggregate’s inclusion of a Tasmanian result).

With due caution for the wide error margins, the state breakdowns are remarkable for how close they are to the results of the 2022 election, with Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (compared with 51.4-48.6 at the election), 55-45 in Victoria (54.8-45.2), 54-46 in Western Australia (55.0-45.0) and 55-45 in South Australia (54.0-46.0), and the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (54.0-46.0). The gender breakdowns unusually find Labor in a slightly stronger position among men (leading 53-47, out from 51-49 in the October aggregate) than women (in from 56-44 to 52-48), but I would hesitate to read much into it at this stage. You can find most of the results by clicking on the relevant tabs in the BludgerTrack poll data feature.

UPDATE: There is also today a similar exercise from Nine Newspapers from its last three monthly Resolve Strategic polls, though the interest level is limited in this case by the fact that breakdowns for the three largest states are published with each poll. Whereas Newspoll finds no state swinging by more than 1% compared with the election, Resolve Strategic, which has been markedly more favourable for Labor than other pollsters, records a very wide range of results. The pollster does not provide two-party preferred numbers, but my own estimates suggest swings to Labor of around 3.5% in New South Wales, 3% in Victoria, 6.5% in Queensland and 9% in South Australia, and to the Coalition of around 2% in Western Australia. Also featured are breakdowns by three age cohorts, which follow the usual patterns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

691 comments on “Newspoll aggregates: October to December (open thread)”

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  3. Voters have turned on Labor in two of the battleground states at the next election and cut their support for the party nationwide while marking down Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on his personal performance.

    The trend has sliced the party’s primary vote from 37 to 33 per cent in Queensland and from 38 to 34 per cent in Western Australia over the past year, in a backlash that could force Labor into minority government or out of power.

    An exclusive survey also reveals the challenge for Albanese in holding support among families who are suffering from high inflation, with Labor’s primary vote falling 6 percentage points among voters aged 35 to 54 over the past year.

    But the Labor primary vote remains higher nationwide than it was at the last election despite the setbacks, while the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen to 32 per cent from 36 per cent at the election.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-loses-ground-in-battleground-states-20231217-p5es1j.html

  4. Sorry for the lateness
    Hope every one had a good christmas and happy new year

    Shocking propaganda written by David Crowe, this part makes his claim of a Labor minority look very foolish and amateur

    But the Labor primary vote remains higher nationwide than it was at the last election despite the setbacks, while the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen to 32 per cent from 36 per cent at the election.

    If the lib/nats combined primary vote dropped 3.7% from 2022 federal election , it will be a big Labor majority govenment

  5. Good morning, here’s your Dawn Patrol for today 🙂

    Katherine Murphy runs the ruler over both federal parties as we get to the end of the year. She says a post-honeymoon prime minister has been left battered and bruised by 2023 – but that doesn’t necessarily mean the opposition leader will win the war.

    Documents seen by Guardian Australia suggest job provider APM referred woman for role she had already won; APM deny wrongdoing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/27/apm-jobseeker-referral-incentive-payments

    This one is close to my patch. According to a June report by the Australian Institute of Family Studies, the proportion of young adults living at home with their parents has shown the sharpest increase from 2006 to 2021. “Although more marked for the late teens and early 20s, the pattern of more young people living with their parents applies to every age until the early 30s,” says the report’s co-author, Dr Lixia Qu. The data shows adult children aged 20-24 had the most drastic shift in relation to living with their parents, with males in that age group increasing from 46% in 2006 to 51% in 2021 and females from 36% in 2006 to 43% in 2021. So, how to parent them?

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2023/nov/19/you-cant-send-them-to-their-room-the-tensions-and-challenges-of-parenting-adult-children

    Another one close to home for all of us.
    I’ll never stop blogging: it’s an itch I have to scratch – and I don’t care if it’s an outdated format, says Simon Reynolds.

    Even if nobody reads them, I’ll always be drawn to the freedom blogs offer. I can ramble about any subject I choose.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/26/blogging-freedom-outdated-format

    This one is for Itza Dream. Pretend It’s an Interview: Five Minutes With New York Culture Critic Fran Lebowitz
    “You know, when you have a speaking date, you have a rider that says what has to be in your dressing-room. Mine basically says 150 gallons of coffee.”

    https://www.broadsheet.com.au/national/entertainment/article/pretend-its-interview-we-cant-believe-we-talked-fran-leibowitz-either

    Fact checking Gina Reinhart’s wild and outrageous claims. Gina Rinehart says renewable energy could use one-third of Australia’s prime agricultural land. Is she right? Don’t mention the gigantic holes in the ground she’s quite comfortable with.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/22/gina-rinehart-says-renewable-energy-could-use-one-third-of-australias-prime-agricultural-land-is-she-right

    More on the Lehrmann Defamation case. A lip-reader engaged by Network Ten to analyse CCTV footage of Bruce Lehrmann and Brittany Higgins at a Canberra bar in the hours before her alleged rape in Parliament House said in his expert report that Lehrmann’s speech was easier to read in part because he did not appear too intoxicated.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/he-didn-t-seem-too-inebriated-lip-reader-s-report-revealed-in-lehrmann-defamation-case-20231226-p5etn8.html

    The Snowy Hydro 2.0 scheme is free to clear land in Kosciuszko National Park for above-ground transmission lines after a NSW court threw out a legal challenge by environmental activists.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/court-dismisses-environmental-challenge-to-snowy-hydro-2-0-power-lines-20231226-p5etnw.html

    London: Ukrainian fighter jets have destroyed a Russian warship docked at a port in occupied Crimea in an attack bearing the hallmarks of British Storm Shadow missiles.

    Footage of the incident showed a fire and a huge explosion in the harbour at Feodosia at around 3am Ukraine time after the missiles struck the Novocherkassk, one of Russia’s biggest amphibious warships.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukraine-destroys-one-of-russia-s-biggest-amphibious-warships-in-crimea-20231227-p5etqy.html

    The head of the Australian Workers’ Union wants employers hiring migrants to have a union agreement in place to stem exploitation and restrict bosses from avoiding local talent, sparking a fresh clash with business groups over worker protections. Good.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-isn-t-a-member-grab-union-wants-a-say-on-conditions-for-migrant-recruits-20231226-p5etma.html

    Sasebo, Japan: After 75 years of peace, Japan is facing immense challenges in its rush to build a more formidable military. But as the population rapidly ages and shrinks — nearly one-third of Japanese people are over 65, and births fell to a record low last year — experts worry that the military simply won’t be able to staff traditional fleets and squadrons.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/japan-wants-a-stronger-military-but-where-will-it-find-the-troops-20231215-p5ervj.html

    Love them or loathe them, these are the Australians who got us all talking.

    Below, we introduce to you our picks from No.21 down to No.12. Stay tuned tomorrow for No.11 to No.2.

    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/12/26/newsmakers-2023-part-1

    A big noter and Osama bin Laden fan, (Abdul Nacer) Benbrika’s release from prison has caused outrage and debate in the wider community, including those within the Muslim community who, like many non-Muslims, view him as a divisive and corrupting figure, a trouble-maker, a skilled groomer and manipulator of vagrant minds searching for a cause, a mentor, a father figure.

    He was a predator who could fill the vacuum of a seemingly aimless existence of disaffected younger men, with his perversions of religion texts and societal hatreds, mostly towards so-called ‘western civilization ’and fellow Australians.

    Whether Benbrika is still all these things, one cannot say. And therein lies the rub.
    Tess Lawrence explores all aspects of this story in a long dissertation.

    https://theaimn.com/terrorist-abdul-nacer-benbrika-lifelong-dole-bludger/#comment-1098123

    This is very good analysis by Lucy Hamilton. It is no accident that the Australian “conservative” movement has transformed into an echo of the toxic American Right. Fossil fuel money and a giant international network of junktanks bear much of the blame.

    Dr Jeremy Walker’s research into the Atlas Network’s Australian partners brought that American body to prominence over the referendum campaign. The media coverage of his academic study into the influence of “think” tanks such as the Centre for Independent Studies (CIS) and the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) carrying Atlas strategies into the Australian civic discourse raised Atlas’s profile.

    The latest attack by Atlas partner organisations, including (unofficially) News Corp, is a strategic campaign against offshore wind farms.

    The model, as Walker reports, for the supposedly grassroots campaign against offshore wind farms on coastal NSW is derived from a related campaign in the United States. Researchers into climate disinformation at Brown University’s IBES first noticed local groups springing up with high production value visual material and matching talking points. While some figures acting in local Facebook groups seem to be authentic (if misled), others seem suspiciously strategic in their interaction.

    https://theaimn.com/the-americanisation-of-australian-politics-watching-the-atlas-network/

    It’s the time for retrospectives. Here are some illustrations and cartoons to that end.

    Maria Ercegovac

    Simon Letch

    Vintage Cathy Wilcox

    Andrew Dyson

    Is that enough? 😉

  6. ‘WeWantPaul says:
    Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 11:38 pm

    “Yemen has long been one of the poorest countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and is now one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. The fighting raging since early 2015 has devastated its economy, leading to severe food insecurity, and destroying critical infrastructure.”’
    ————————————-
    As elsewhere on earth irrigation has the potential to vastly increase food production. Yemen has had very, very clever irrigation systems in place for centuries. Around half of that water which could be used to support food security is, instead, being used to grow khat. I suggest that Houthi leaders MUST carry accountability for that state of affairs. Instead of harvesting khat cash the arseholes should be forcing irrigators to grow food. The notion that somebody else is responsible for this state of affairs is crap.

  7. C@tmomma says: Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 7:11 am

    Good morning, here’s your Dawn Patrol for today

    ************************************************************

    TOP JOB C@tmomma : )

  8. Four people are dead, including a nine-year-old girl, and three are missing after ferocious storms swept South East Queensland on Christmas night and Boxing Day. The young girl died in a stormwater drain in Logan, a woman drowned in the Mary River near Gympie, while one person died and two were missing in a boat capsize off Manly. Up to 200,000 Queenslanders could be without power for days, with more than 800 power lines down after the storms, which included a wild Christmas night “mini-cyclone” Premier Steven Miles called “unprecedented”.

  10. Thank you, William, and I hope you had a good Christmas and Boxing Day. Back at work for me for these three days!

    I think it is unsurprising that Labor has made it to the mid-term mark level with its election winning position of May last year. A return to basic, competent government has been balanced by voter grumpiness with the continuing state of anxious uncertainty over the direction the world is taking.

  12. https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/27/newspoll-aggregates-october-to-december-open-thread/#comment-4201552

    Using Murdoch Infotainment/ Newspoll, not sure which SmAge used, on 2PP fed gov is ahead, PV (or without preferences) seems to have opposition tied in WA, even tied in VIC, and ahead in QLD and NSW

    (BludgerTrack as of 26 Dec has fed gov ahead on 2PP, if down about 0.6% on the election
    PV fed gov is down 0.2% on the election
    Net sat is with LOTO
    PPM is with PM (skews to the incumbent anyway))

  13. ”
    Maria Ercegovac

    ”

    I don’t know who this Maria Ercegovac is, but HPM is one of the most important person in 2023 according to her. Seriously!

    How is he impacting our lives in anyway other than Higgins, Wilkinson, Channel 10, Stokes?

  18. C@tmomma, happy Between-Christmas-and-New-Year, and thank you very much for the Dawn Patrol today.

    In addition to your posting of https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukraine-destroys-one-of-russia-s-biggest-amphibious-warships-in-crimea-20231227-p5etqy.html, Ukrainksa Pravda has an update:

    “A satellite image shows that, in addition to the Novocherkassk, another ship partially sank as a result of the strike on the port of Feodosiia in occupied Crimea.

    Source: Radio Svoboda (Liberty), citing a satellite image from Planet.com showing the port of Feodosiia after the Ukrainian strike on the night of 26 December

    Details: According to the outlet, in addition to the Novocherkassk landing ship, the image shows that another vessel partially sank due to the strike. This ship is marked with a yellow rectangle in the photo.

    https://img.pravda.com/images/doc/5/b/5b64711-opera——–2023-12-26-221817-xn--80affa3aj0al.xn--80asehdb.avif

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/26/7434706/

    Given Ukraine is achieving a naval victory in the Black Sea without a fleet, I wonder if there are any lessons here for Australia in terms of securing the sea lanes to our north? Air, missile and drone bases in preference to ships, perhaps? That would signal very clearly to all countries in our region that we are focused on home defence, not forward projection.

  19. ”
    Steve777says:
    Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 8:29 am
    If “HPM” is the person in the bottom right of the “2023” graphic, I have no idea who he is. A TV chef? An AFL identity?
    ”

    He is on top right of the gif/ picture.

  20. The Republicans Know That Trump Is Losing

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/26/2213887/-The-Republicans-Know-That-Trump-Is-Losing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “Republican anxiety about Trump is probably also fueled by the fact that a majority of the independent polls taken in recent weeks have Biden tied or ahead. The much hyped New York Times which had Biden trailing Trump several weeks ago, now has Biden leading 47%-45% with likely voters. The Democrats have gained 3 points in 538’s Congressional Generic tracker, and Navigator’s recent House battleground tracker polling found Republican erosion, and the Democrats now with a decided lead.

    Here are the 16 recent polls showing Biden ahead or tied (via 538):

    47–45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
    49–48 Monmouth
    49–48 NPR/Marist
    47–46 Quinnipiac
    42–41 YouGov/Economist 12/2
    44–42 YouGov/Economist 11/25
    39–37 YouGov
    40–36 and 37–35 Leger
    Reuters had Biden +4 in the battleground Presidential states
    45–45 Clarity
    44–44 Yahoo/YouGov
    41–41 Cygnal
    43–43 Economist/YouGov 12/6 and 12/20
    43–43 Morning Consult 12/2
    In a new poll released by Echelon Insights on December 23, Biden has retaken the lead from Trump by a 48%-47% margin. The last time Biden led in their poll was in July. The poll also shows Biden leading in the swing states by a landslide lead of 52%-44%.”

  22. Meat consumption-driven CO2 emissions abound.

    Australia is right up there among the wealthy nations. We do have the food systems to make alternative choices practicable. But some of the poorer nations rate because subsistence grazing is often the sole major food source with no currently practicable alternatives. It is eat meat or nothing.

    There is currently no technological fix for domestic animal CO2 emissions.

    There are around 2.5 billion domestic animals.

    Apart from the privately-owned domestic animals, Australia runs vast herds of feral goats, camels, donkeys, buffaloes and horses.

    Interestingly enough some island nations which must be close to 100% meat importers are eating themselves underwater. This is presumably off the back of wealth garnered by way of tourism-generated CO2 emissions which are speeding up their underwater future.

    Is it simpler to deflect?

    #plus 2.5 degrees

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_meat_consumption

  24. ‘Macarthur says:
    Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 8:41 am

    C@tmomma, happy Between-Christmas-and-New-Year, and thank you very much for the Dawn Patrol today.

    In addition to your posting of https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukraine-destroys-one-of-russia-s-biggest-amphibious-warships-in-crimea-20231227-p5etqy.html, Ukrainksa Pravda has an update:

    “A satellite image shows that, in addition to the Novocherkassk, another ship partially sank as a result of the strike on the port of Feodosiia in occupied Crimea.

    Source: Radio Svoboda (Liberty), citing a satellite image from Planet.com showing the port of Feodosiia after the Ukrainian strike on the night of 26 December

    Details: According to the outlet, in addition to the Novocherkassk landing ship, the image shows that another vessel partially sank due to the strike. This ship is marked with a yellow rectangle in the photo.

    https://img.pravda.com/images/doc/5/b/5b64711-opera——–2023-12-26-221817-xn--80affa3aj0al.xn--80asehdb.avif

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/12/26/7434706/

    Given Ukraine is achieving a naval victory in the Black Sea without a fleet, I wonder if there are any lessons here for Australia in terms of securing the sea lanes to our north? Air, missile and drone bases in preference to ships, perhaps? That would signal very clearly to all countries in our region that we are focused on home defence, not forward projection.’
    ———————————–
    IMO it shows that forward basing/port use of fleet units is, like it was in WW2 without air superiority, too big a risk. I am surprised that the Russians did not learn this lesson the last time.
    It also shows that the Russian Navy is keeping true to its traditions.

  26. Morning bludgers. Thanks C@t for filling BK’s big shoes over festivus.

    Yesterday I posted a sample of my planned activities for today in the cultural wasteland that is Sydney – to demonstrate to nath and other concerned Melbournians that whilst not up to scratch when compared with Bleak City – ‘obviously’ – we are not without options in ye olde’ Sydney town.

    As it turns out it looks like I’ll be doing none of these today, as I’m presently in the emergency waiting room at Sydney Eye Hospital.

    Whilst not wishing to compete with taylormade’ s Annus horribilis, 2023 has been a very rough trot for me health wise: chronic psoriasis rash over my whole body (Feb-May); covid (April); Benign promixal vertigo (July), chronic fatigue – finally diagnosed as a severe iron deficiency (ferritan levels at 8, when normal range is 30-500, treated by an iron infusion), a bad case of gastro (November) and now what appears to be a dry eye-sty condition. Grrr!

    On the upside, I’ve lost around 8kg, Ive increased my exercise when I can, and now i actually have some blood-iron my strength and stamina has improved dramatically.

  27. Ven

    What have I been saying for eons. Trump isn’t going to be President again.

    Even if he gets the nomination, he probably won’t contest the election in November.

    Haley would be more of a challenge for Biden. But she will lose too.

    Jack Smith is not finished with Trump.

    Trump the traitor is done for. Hopefully he takes Putin with him.

  29. CNN
    Business / Markets
    India joins the ranks of stock market superpowers

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/26/markets/india-stock-market-investment-growth-intl-hnk/index.html

    “Fund manager Abhay Agarwal was surprised by the number of calls he took this month from international investors showing more than a passing curiosity about India.

    “These are from family offices in Europe or some large investors in US who have …never bothered about investing in India,” said Agarwal, founder of Mumbai-based Piper Serica Advisors.

    “For the first time, I find them to be very serious and they’re calling and asking questions such as, ‘Look, will my money be safe? And is there a rule of law here?’” he added.
    ”

    “Is there a rule of law here? “. the investor asks.
    Mr. Investor, No. It is all law of Jungle here.

  31. Re Ven @8:45. “The Republicans Know That Trump Is Losing”

    The margin is still worryingly narrow, especially given that the Electoral College system and voter suppression in many States tilts the playing field in favour of the Republicans.

  33. Tough Break Earlwood. Still, that litany of woe doesn’t seem too bad comparatively and I’m sure you will return to top form soon. All the best.

  38. Andrew Earlwood

    When my dad came to Australia back in the fifties, he worked in QLD for a while and visited with friends in Sydney.

    He decided to settle in Melbourne together with other members of the family. Some extended family did go onto settle in Blacktown NSW, and others in the Adelaide Hills.

    Melbourne town has served him, and all those who followed, very well.
    I’m sure if he had settled anywhere else, it would have been good too.

    As I say, home is where the heart is.

  40. ”
    Steve777says:
    Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 9:07 am
    Re Ven @8:45. “The Republicans Know That Trump Is Losing”

    The margin is still worryingly narrow, especially given that the Electoral College system and voter suppression in many States tilts the playing field in favour of the Republicans.
    ”

    Yes, the margin is still worryingly narrow Steve.
    For a country like USA, Biden should lead by 10% nationwide after excellent economic conditions. But Alas!!
    But Trump has touched over 40% of American people.

  41. Andrew _Earlwood,
    Thanks for the kind words. BK’s shoes are big ones to fill. Fyi, I included the Japanese Navy story for you and Soc to chew on maybe. 🙂

    Also, I feel your pain, kind of. I appear to have picked up a tummy bug yesterday at the Boxing Day Sales. 😉

  42. the best things about a hospital stay are the gorgeous young nurses that buzz around you and get exchanged every 8 hours or so. To have that much female attention in such a variety is quite a thing. Sit back and lap it up Earlwood.

  44. Ven,
    A lot of people have said that Trump is competitive simply because he’s in the news and most people aren’t as engaged with the political minutiae like you and I are. Joe Trippi did a great analysis of the polls the other day on That Trippi Show if you’re interested. 🙂

  46. Yep the weather job for lifers in the fed government’s department were saying earlier this year of most likely end to La Niña and less rain from spring onwards.
    Wrong.
    Known for inaccuracy and incompetence over many years the weather bureau sadly.

  47. Iran dismisses US accusations of tanker attack off India

    The US accusations are meant to ‘distract’ from Washington’s complicity in Israel’s ‘crimes in Gaza’, Iran’s FM says.

    https://www-aljazeera-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/12/25/iran-dismisses-us-claim-it-hit-tanker-near-india?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17036095655253&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2023%2F12%2F25%2Firan-dismisses-us-claim-it-hit-tanker-near-india

  48. I reckon the weather experts are almost always right in their outlooks as they are always based on factual data.

    The conspiracy cookers are never satisfied though.

  49. Hilary beat the Donald 48% to 46 but then the Electoral College intervened.
    On current figures the Donald is headed for another term.

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