YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)

Labor takes a knock in a federal poll conducted in the days leading up to the budget.

Ahead of a looming avalanche of post-budget opinion polls, YouGov gets in with a poll whose field work period starting last Friday and ending on the day the budget was delivered on Tuesday. The result is the weakest for Labor out of ten polls since the series began in September, recording a dead heat on two-party preferred, erasing a 52-48 lead four weeks ago. The primary votes are Labor 30% (down three), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is unchanged at 41% with disapproval up one to 53%, while Peter Dutton is up four on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 46-34 to 44-37.

The poll also features a question on issue salience which evidently allowed respondents to choose multiple issues they felt the government should focus on. This found housing affordability (up four to 36%) taking the lead over living standards (down three to 34%) since the question was last posed in November. Climate change was down seven points to 13%. A question on national direction finds wrong direction favoured over right direction by 61% to 39%. The sample for the poll was 1506.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

662 comments on “YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)”

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  1. davidwhsays:
    Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 9:49 pm
    Entropy apparently the article was Friday according to what someone posted.

    If it was, what he wrote seemed to match well with what they got in Newspoll. He did well if he hadn’t seen it. Which if it was written on Friday, would certainly be the case.

  2. I’m delighted with Newspoll, but dear friends – it’s a poll a year out from the election.

    We need to stop the bedwetting. Trust me I’m still traumatised by 2019 too. But we all need to take a deep breath. Dutto is not going to oust all those teals. Not going to happen, because he is a RWNJ, and as conservative as our country is they do not want the Handmaid’s tale brought to life down here in South Gilead.

  3. Dr Doolittle

    Dr Doolittle says:
    Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 11:19 pm
    Entropy at 11.01 pm

    Nicholas is a good contributor, who tries to offer helpful insights and doesn’t slag off on others.

    So, do you think his post about me (below) is OK? I think he is certainly slagging me off.

    Nicholas says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2024 at 7:07 am
    Poll Bludger centrists support Labor for reasons of sentiment, nostalgia, and cognitive dissonance. It isn’t a policy-based choice. All of us make a lot of decisions on the basis of vibes rather than values, commitments, and goals. Evangelical Christians largely support Donald Trump. Is that because Trump embodies their values and aligns with their commitments? No. They like him because of the feelings that he evokes in them, their sense (however misguided) that he is an alpha male, decisive and resolute.

    Consider Douglas & Milko, for example. Do you think she supports Labor because she’s analysed their policies on housing, employment, income support, education, and health care, and concluded that these policies have a lot of merit and deserve to be supported in an unironic, active way? No. She knows that their policies are woefully inadequate, worthy of a “Meh” form of support at best. But she associates Labor with the 1980s – important formative years for her. For her Labor is enmeshed with memories of halcyon days of youth – intellectual fulfilment at university, the thrills and trials of ardent love and sexual awakening, Australia winning the America’s Cup yacht race and Bob Hawke jubilant in a garish jacket. The emotional appeal of Labor endures for her even though their policies are crap.

    She might use cognitive dissonance strategies to justify the chasm between what Labor does and the policy outcomes she wants. Saying that Labor is pragmatic, sensible, and realistic, and that’s why they deserve her primary vote is an example of a cognitive dissonance gambit. If you support progressive policies, putting the Greens ahead of Labor and Labor ahead of the LNP is the most rational way to vote. But in many situations we don’t think in a deliberative way. Instead we think intuitively, viscerally, and emotionally.

    And he cannot even use the truth defence. I am at least 10 years older than he figures. Hell, my friends and I still have our “Shame Fraser Shame” badges.

    And I am also really pissed off about the casual, misogynist way (he definitely calls me “she”), he dismisses what my real experiences have been.

    In late December 1994, I had to “calmly” talk my husband out of killing me (I told him “I am not with it – you do not want to spend the rest of your life in jail because you killed someone as worthless as I am.) I watched him, in between me and the wall phone, knowing that he would snap and strangle me if I moved, before I could call triple zero.

    My two youngest children watched on. Somehow my cold and derisive tone worked – that was not a foregone conclusion, just my best intuitive hope at the time. He then appeared to leave the house, and I sat with my children, all of us shaking. But after 20 minutes or so, I did not hear his car leave from the driveway, and so I went to look in the garage. My children followed.

    I then saw husband trying to hang himself. I went to support his weight, while screaming to my 6-year-old to call triple zero.

    Anyway, the Police came, talked to my husband, and then they came and talked to me. They said that all my husband wanted was to get back with me, and as long as I said yes, there would be no problems. I said no, and they pissed off quick smart, leaving me to deal with murderous / suicidal husband.

    I was actually lucky that the support systems that the Hawke / Keating governments had put into place allowed me to study for a PhD and support my children (yes, there were four of them).

    Why a PhD – well, I guess you play to your strengths, and try and make a living as best you can using them. For me it was mathematics and physics. And you know, I did manage to make a reasonable living (nothing fancy, state schools, but I am also a strong believer in public education, so that was always going to be the case).

    We never had a lot of money, but I managed to provide a decent and interesting life for them – a mother with a PhD in astrophysics provides a surprising amount of street cred! And their schools loved having me and my telescopes, showing them the sun (with appropriate solar filters) and the stars.

    As a PostScript. In 1996, I was talking to a friend of mine, whose husband was a police prosecutor. Much of his work was prosecuting males who had killed their intimate partners. This latter fact only becomes important after the next few sentences.

    I grumbled to my friend that my ex-husband had kicked my eldest son out of his house. My eldest was actually living with my ex for two reasons – 1) He thought at least one of the kids should live with his dad, who he thought needed looking after, and 2) He was sick of living with the youngest two, who were pretty hyperactive.

    So, my Ex rang me one Sunday and told me he had kicked out our oldest son. Apparently although he had a sprained ankle, and could not play rugby league, his father insisted that he should go along to the game to “support the team”. Oldest said no – he also had a large number of school assignments due.

    So, anyway, Ex only lets me know this after oldest son has left his home. And we are talking before mobile phones.

    Three hours later, son turns up at my place, much to my relief. He had had to walk along the railway tracks between Lapstone and Glenbrook, with his sprained ankle.

    So, I tell my friend this, just as “I cannot believe what Ex has done to the kids now”. The next day she comes back to me and says “Police Prosecutor says sell your house now. Your Ex has exactly the right profile to kill you, and the jointly owned house will be a trigger. Afterwards, he will be very, very sorry, but you will be very, very dead.”

    So, I suggested selling the house, and Ex agreed. When I moved out, Ex actually said to me – it is good you are moving out of this house. I won’t feel so angry at you.

    So, while Nicholas thought I was having some “sexual awakening” (I mean who even thinks about another poster in those terms), I was actually trying to escape a violent relationship, and make a life for myself and my kids.

    Yeah, doing a PhD may seem like a “privileged” way to do it, but seriously, there were not that many career paths open to women in my situation at that time. And I just happened to be good at maths and physics.

    Postcript: In 1998, I remember taking my youngest, the one who had to call triple zero when his father tried to hang himself, after a basketball match in the quaint working class suburb of Werrington NSW, through the Maccas drive through in Emu Plains – another of those quaint working class suburbs that I am sure Nicholas Haines is very proud that he does not know the existence of.

    At this stage my mother and my older children were helping me look after the younger two when I had to do “field work”. It was only about four weeks of the year, but god some people made me feel guilty about it, despite the fact that my children were very well cared for.

    So, going through Maccas drive-through on the way home from basketball, I said to youngest “I am really sorry, I think I forgot to tell you I need to go to Chile tomorrow for observing for a week. Nana is going to look after you. He said “Mum, you have mad job, but the pay really sucks”.

    And now, the kids have “mad” jobs – although their pay is OK, and they respect science and critical thinking, and make a point of telling me how they are passing this knowledge and skills onto their children, my grandchildren.

  4. In Britain the Libdem vote is concentrated in certain areas, eg the south west, and blue wall Tory electorates. Of those areas Devon is currently suffering from cryptosporidium in the water supply(ie boil water notices), because the privatised water companies have allowed every watercourse to be filled with raw sewage, and the Tories wont even attempt to restrain them. Lid dems will pick up seats, as Labour voters will vote tactically for them in the electorates where Labour has no chance(and vice versa). Britain is determined to get the Tories out, and Refuk will split their vote. Its FPTP over there

  5. I am not surprised by the Newspoll. 52-48 to Labor is not great, but its not bad only a few days after the budget. Things will get better as the budget measures kick in.

    I said earlier tonight, I don’t see how the LNP will stitch together a coherent campaign which will appeal to the outer suburban aspirationals and the inner suburban educated elites at the same time. I double down on that after this poll. Hanging onto rural and Qld seats won’t do more than tread water for the LNP.

    This is on top of economic circumstances that have been very kind to Dutton (and cruel to households) caused by Morrison’s debt hangover and global conflict induced inflation. If Dutton can’t win now, then when?

  6. Now for my grumpy post. Thanks to Holden Hillbilly for posting this news on the Collins LOTE project earlier tonight. I saw Andrew Earlwood’s post on this earlier:

    “The Albanese government has been warned that the $5bn plan to extend the life of the navy’s ageing fleet of Collins-class submarines for another decade is a perilously high-risk endeavour that is not guaranteed to succeed.

    It is understood that Ms Valdez’s interim report delivered this month outlined extensive technical risks to the LOTE program, saying the size and scope of the planned extensions had never before been attempted on the bespoke Collins-class boats, which were built between 1990 and 2003.“

    I have been saying this about the Collins LOTE project since before the last election. It was a bad idea even before AUKUS. Such projects are NOT normal practice by countries that understand submarine operation. There is no proof it was going to work. It was a large financial and operational risk.

    Collins LOTE was invented to hide the LNP’s failure to start building the Collins replacement soon enough.

    But why did Labor wait 2 years to kill it off? Looks like Labor is maneuvering to kill off local sub building entirely. Collins LOTE was the last bit of local sub construction/reconstruction left this decade.

    And once more, $5 to $6 billion in Federal funds for manufacturing work will disappear from South Australia. Thanks guys!

  7. Douglas and Milko @ #661 Sunday, May 19th, 2024 – 10:20 pm

    Dr Doolittle

    So, while Nicholas thought I was having some “sexual awakening” (I mean who even thinks about another poster in those terms), I was actually trying to escape a violent relationship, and make a life for myself and my kids.

    Yeah, doing a PhD may seem like a “privileged” way to do it, but seriously, there were not that many career paths open to women in my situation at that time. And I just happened to be good at maths and physics.

    So, going through Maccas drive-through on the way home from basketball, I said to youngest “I am really sorry, I think I forgot to tell you I need to go to Chile tomorrow for observing for a week. Nana is going to look after you. He said “Mum, you have mad job, but the pay really sucks”.

    Thanks so much for sharing your experience, insight & courage in this post. It may penetrate Nicholas’ insecurity & inexperience.

  8. RossMcG@8.43pm.
    It is the same on our local Central Coast community radio station, 96.3FM.
    The half hourly local news coverage is quite responsible and treats local issues seriously by presenting both sides of a debate.
    The hourly State @ Federal News is sourced from Costello Media, with most topics presented as: “Isodope Dutton says”, Ben Fordham says, etc.
    They regularly ask listeners to contribute to the station.
    We fully enjoy the music and the wide variety of programmes, particularly after 6.00pm, but my wife and I refuse to subscribe to a station which promotes right wing bias, as news.

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