YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)

Labor takes a knock in a federal poll conducted in the days leading up to the budget.

Ahead of a looming avalanche of post-budget opinion polls, YouGov gets in with a poll whose field work period starting last Friday and ending on the day the budget was delivered on Tuesday. The result is the weakest for Labor out of ten polls since the series began in September, recording a dead heat on two-party preferred, erasing a 52-48 lead four weeks ago. The primary votes are Labor 30% (down three), Coalition 38% (up two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is unchanged at 41% with disapproval up one to 53%, while Peter Dutton is up four on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 46-34 to 44-37.

The poll also features a question on issue salience which evidently allowed respondents to choose multiple issues they felt the government should focus on. This found housing affordability (up four to 36%) taking the lead over living standards (down three to 34%) since the question was last posed in November. Climate change was down seven points to 13%. A question on national direction finds wrong direction favoured over right direction by 61% to 39%. The sample for the poll was 1506.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

662 comments on “YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)”

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  1. Been Theresays:
    Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 8:12 pm
    Too much excitement about nothing from our resident Libs and anti-Labor crew!
    Don’t get your hopes up, it’s a hard come down.
    _____________________
    You must be speaking from experience as there will never ever, ever be a harder come down like we saw in 2019.
    Someone posted the election night blog a few weeks ago.
    I just couldn’t believe the meltdown, with a few bludgers even threatening to pack up and move across the ditch to NZ.
    Hilarious.

  2. 9:17pm- @ HH:

    Facepalm. Morrison’s marketing scam has yet another wrinkle. I repeat what I said on the morning of the OHFUCKUS announcement:

    1. It made no sense to cancel the Block 1 (1st four boats) Attack class build. Even with the associated ‘program costs’ (new workforce, build hall, plant, equipment) we needed a replacement SSK class whilst we spent 20-30 years spooling up a SSN program to maturity.

    2. It made no sense excluding Naval Group from the evaluation study for who should be the prime contractor for our envisaged SSN fleet.

    Most of the problems with OHFUCKUS could have been avoided if France wasn’t excluded from the mix. Even if we ended going with the Americans (for say 4-5 ‘made in america subs’) or Britain (for bristish designed, Australian built nuclear subs).

    Australian having viable French options (next gen SSKs being built and ‘options’ for the SSN Barracuda as well) would have meant we would have extracted the best deals from either the Brits of the Americans if we ultimately decided to go with either.

  3. Newspoll: Labor and Anthony Albanese up but voters mark down budget as bad for inflation and economy!
    While the budget’s overall economic strategy was questioned by voters, the cost-of-living measures appeared to pay dividends for Mr Albanese personally. The Prime Minister’s approval ratings lifted three points to 47 per cent. Those dissatisfied with his performance fell three points to 47 per cent. This is the first time Mr Albanese has been out of negative territory since the voice referendum last October.
    Mr Dutton also improved his position, lifting two points to 38 per cent while his disapproval ratings fell a point to 50 per cent. He still remains in negative territory, however, with a net approval rating of minus 12.
    Mr Albanese also extended his lead as preferred prime minister over the Opposition Leader, lifting four points to 52 per cent compared to Mr Dutton, who fell two points to 33 per cent.
    And less than a third of people believe they will be financially better off, despite a tax cut, rental ­assistance and a $300 energy subsidy, although this was higher than Labor’s previous two budgets. An exclusive post-budget Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows that despite the budget’s lukewarm reception, Labor’s primary vote lifted a point to 34 per cent, with the two-party-preferred vote also widening two points in its favour to 52-48. The Coalition’s primary vote fell a point to 37 per cent while the Greens lifted a point to 13 per cent. Overall, Labor has marginally improved its position on the last election.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-labor-and-anthony-albanese-up-but-voters-mark-down-budget-as-bad-for-inflation-and-economy/news-story/8ec7d7336a7cee93fa8803796dfb2ca3?amp

  4. Taylormadesays:
    Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 9:29 pm
    Been Theresays:
    Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 8:12 pm
    Too much excitement about nothing from our resident Libs and anti-Labor crew!
    Don’t get your hopes up, it’s a hard come down.
    _____________________
    You must be speaking from experience as there will never ever, ever be a harder come down like we saw in 2019.
    Someone posted the election night blog a few weeks ago.
    I just couldn’t believe the meltdown, with a few bludgers even threatening to pack up and move across the ditch to NZ.
    Hilarious.

    I must admit it was pretty hard to take. Even the first exit poll seemed to confirm that Labor was home for all money, then it all turned to crap.

  5. Someone posted the election night blog a few weeks ago.
    ==============================
    That was me.

    Anyway, back onto Newspoll.

  6. “ 52-48. Now the Libs on here can go and cry in their beer.‘

    We should spare a thought for poor L’arse.

    Poor. Poor. L’arse.

  7. A ­record low number of people have judged Jim Chalmers’ third budget as good for the economy, with a majority believing it will throw more fuel on the inflation fire.

    Theyre only believing MSM propoganda. The punters want help but they dont want inflation rises. Make your fucking mind up.

  8. Did we ever establish when that Dennis Shanahan article was first published?. What is being said now in the “Holdenhillbilly” post is pretty similar to what was said earlier in that article.

  9. Lynchpinsays:
    Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 9:45 pm
    That’s a big gap in primaries from the Resolve poll. Why?
    ==========================================
    Need to know the polling period. Someone will dig it up shortly, or WB will bang out a new thread with details. Can smell a new thread coming.

  10. Lynchpin having bouncy polls is supposed to be good. Resolve was Labor biased but maybe they have over-corrected.? Maybe it’s just statistical noise?

  11. That’s a big gap in primaries from the Resolve poll. Why?

    Why? Resolve is a biased, pushing poll, that’s why!

    Are you surprised or disappointed?


  12. nadia88says:
    Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 9:36 pm
    Figures HH, figures.

    Ah! Come on nadia
    You made Lars so happy about 2 hours ago.
    Now you say figures.

  13. davidwhsays:
    Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 9:43 pm
    I remember the night Bystander. PB’ers were giving us QLD’ers heaps. I blamed the Tasmanians.

    I blamed you personally David. Actually, in retrospect, I think most of the ‘credit’ belongs to Scott Morrison. Whatever we might think of him now he played a blinder in Queensland, even to the extent of pouring a beer over his head on one occasion in one of the pubs. Just one of the boys; and Queenslanders lapped it up. (not the beer the image).

  14. 2019, at least on here, was a cautionary tale about hubris, confirmation bias and creating an environment which prohibited any information, no matter how true, which might be contrary to what one wants to hear.

    In the wake of the election, some people learned from that. Some people were introspective about their own blind spots. Others, unfortunately, doubled down and instead just looked to blame anyone but Shorten and Labor.

  15. I will say one thing that Labor has under its belt: it’s the incumbent government – the devil that the public know. Unsure swing voters, if not convinced by Dutton will likely stick with the Government because people, first and foremost, are risk-averse. That’s one of the reasons why changing leader and then rushing to an election is a bad idea. You piss that advantage away.

  16. I cannot understand how anybody can be ok with such biased headlines (ALP/LNP supporters) re Newspoll. Clearly the take away from this poll is that the ALP have picked up the pace, yet, you’d think the government was about to fall based on the headline. Are the target audience happy to be lied to? I don’t understand the psychology behind it.

  17. Vensays:
    Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 9:53 pm

    nadia88says:
    Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 9:36 pm
    Figures HH, figures.

    Ah! Come on nadia
    You made Lars so happy about 2 hours ago.
    Now you say figures.
    ===========================
    Don’t you be cheeky Ven.

    Lars wanted a <sub 30% primary, and he got it with Resolve earlier this evening.
    To be fair, I actually posted about 2 weeks ago that the ALP may track sub 30% in some of the post Budget polls.
    Newspoll is good for Labor tonight. Good figures. 34% primary is good.
    The "champagne polls" of whether you think the Budget is good or bad is irrelevent.
    It's the primaries which count.
    Anyway, we're about to flip over to a new thread.

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