Post-budget polling: Newspoll and Resolve Strategic (open thread)

Labor up in Newspoll and down in Resolve Strategic amid a likewise mixed picture on response to the budget.

The post-budget Newspoll in The Australian offers good news for Labor on voting intention, despite recorded an at best subdued reaction to the budget. Labor holds a two-party lead of 52-48, out from 51-48 in the last poll four weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 34% (up one), Coalition 37% (down one) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese also records his best personal numbers since before the referendum, with approval up three to 47% and disapproval down three to 47%, and widens his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister from 48-35 to 52-33. Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 50%

The less happy news for Labor comes with responses to the budget, which 39% think will worsen inflation compared with only 15% who think it will be favourable. An even 27% think the budget will be good for the economy, which is in fact the equal worst result since the Abbott government’s first budget in 2014. However, the result is better on anticipated impact on personal finances, presumably reflecting response to the tax cut changes: 27% expect it will improve them compared with 29% for worse, which is substantially better than the minus 16% and minus 35% net ratings recorded in the May 2023 and October 2022 budgets. No detail yet as to field dates or sample size. UPDATE: Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1280.

In Nine Newspapers, Resolve Strategic has its worst result for Labor this term, with the qualification that it was a markedly pro-Labor series until the end of last year, and has since been closer to the pack. Labor is down a point from a month ago to 29%, the Coalition is steady on 36%, the Greens are down one to 12%, One Nation is up two 7% and the United Australia Party is steady on 2%. The pollster does not produce a two-party preferred result, and calculating one is complicated by its large 12% reading for a generic “independent” option. My own favoured method of estimating the result from preference flows at the last election, which rolls independents together an “others” category, has Labor barely ahead 50.2-49.8. Anthony Albanese also takes a knock on his personal ratings, with his combined very good and good rating down four points to 39%, with poor and very poor up four to 49%. Peter Dutton is respectively at 39%, down one, and 42%, steady. However, Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 40-32, in from 41-32.

Other than that, the budget seems to have been reasonably well received by respondents, with 40% rating it good for their household, 41% good for the country, 38% good for the economy and 34% good for fighting inflation, with respective poor ratings of 21%, 21%, 21% and 27%. Questions about five specific budget items found strong support for all of them, including 68% support for the stage three tax cut changes with only 8% opposed, and 62% for Future Made in Australia with only 10% opposed. However, 60% felt the government was handling immigration in an “unplanned and unmanaged way”, compared with only 20% for planned and managed. Sixty-six felt immigration numbers too high last year, 23% about right and only 2% too low, but expectations for next year were less unfavourable at 50%, 35% and 4% respectively. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1602.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

503 comments on “Post-budget polling: Newspoll and Resolve Strategic (open thread)”

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  1. So is Peter Dutton and the Coalition going to stick up for Netanyahu but not the leaders of Hamas, now that the ICC has issued a warrant for his arrest? Remembering that the ICC was conceived by a Jewish survivor of the Holocaust. So it wouldn’t be a good look to bag it.

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