The post-budget Newspoll in The Australian offers good news for Labor on voting intention, despite recorded an at best subdued reaction to the budget. Labor holds a two-party lead of 52-48, out from 51-48 in the last poll four weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 34% (up one), Coalition 37% (down one) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese also records his best personal numbers since before the referendum, with approval up three to 47% and disapproval down three to 47%, and widens his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister from 48-35 to 52-33. Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 50%
The less happy news for Labor comes with responses to the budget, which 39% think will worsen inflation compared with only 15% who think it will be favourable. An even 27% think the budget will be good for the economy, which is in fact the equal worst result since the Abbott government’s first budget in 2014. However, the result is better on anticipated impact on personal finances, presumably reflecting response to the tax cut changes: 27% expect it will improve them compared with 29% for worse, which is substantially better than the minus 16% and minus 35% net ratings recorded in the May 2023 and October 2022 budgets. No detail yet as to field dates or sample size. UPDATE: Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1280.
In Nine Newspapers, Resolve Strategic has its worst result for Labor this term, with the qualification that it was a markedly pro-Labor series until the end of last year, and has since been closer to the pack. Labor is down a point from a month ago to 29%, the Coalition is steady on 36%, the Greens are down one to 12%, One Nation is up two 7% and the United Australia Party is steady on 2%. The pollster does not produce a two-party preferred result, and calculating one is complicated by its large 12% reading for a generic “independent” option. My own favoured method of estimating the result from preference flows at the last election, which rolls independents together an “others” category, has Labor barely ahead 50.2-49.8. Anthony Albanese also takes a knock on his personal ratings, with his combined very good and good rating down four points to 39%, with poor and very poor up four to 49%. Peter Dutton is respectively at 39%, down one, and 42%, steady. However, Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 40-32, in from 41-32.
Other than that, the budget seems to have been reasonably well received by respondents, with 40% rating it good for their household, 41% good for the country, 38% good for the economy and 34% good for fighting inflation, with respective poor ratings of 21%, 21%, 21% and 27%. Questions about five specific budget items found strong support for all of them, including 68% support for the stage three tax cut changes with only 8% opposed, and 62% for Future Made in Australia with only 10% opposed. However, 60% felt the government was handling immigration in an “unplanned and unmanaged way”, compared with only 20% for planned and managed. Sixty-six felt immigration numbers too high last year, 23% about right and only 2% too low, but expectations for next year were less unfavourable at 50%, 35% and 4% respectively. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1602.
Steve from previous thread, I’m still here.
Worst with Resolve. Better with Newspoll. Are these polling companies on the same page?
I’d love to know why Resolve have ALP at 29% PV and Newspoll at 34%. That’s a big gap.
Davidwh
Have the others gone off in a huff?
Both sides can say that it hasn’t been won but it hasn’t been lost.
I still fully expect the ALP to get a second go around
Lynchpin
That the question of the night for sure.
Off topic, but Trump was playing golf yesterday, between court days.
Agreed FUBAR.
Despite the Left-wing media’s best efforts, it looks as if Australians have seen through Labor’s spin at just how terrible this budget really is. Thanks to Jimflation, Dutton is all but a shoe-in for 2025.
steve davis says:
Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 10:05 pm
Just got home from the West Coast Eagles spanking Melbourne
FUBAR
You’d be happy on that score then.
FUBAR well done on the Melbourne defeat. Given enough of those upsets and the Lions may still make the 8.
steve davissays:
Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 10:03 pm
Worst with Resolve. Better with Newspoll. Are these polling companies on the same page?
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Yet the polled response to the budget seems the other way round in each poll. Though maybe that could come down to how the questions on the budget were phrased in each poll?.
Fairly steady since late last year. Herding not apparent either. We shall see.
Hi Nadia 88 hope all’s good with you.
You seem disappointed with the positive result for Labor via Newspoll.
Newspoll seems to be the only credible poll these days, much to my surprise regarding previous years.
Just shows you can’t base your faith on the other rubbish polls organised by those who want to get the results they want.
Resolve is the worst, yet people got so excited about it.
Need I say any more?
New Liberal party spokesperson alert !!!!!!!
I’m delighted with Newspoll, but dear friends – it’s a poll a year out from the election.
We need to stop the bedwetting. Trust me I’m still traumatised by 2019 too. But we all need to take a deep breath. Dutton is not going to oust all those teals. Not going to happen, because he is a RWNJ, and as conservative as our country is they do not want the Handmaid’s tale brought to life down here in South Gilead.
I wonder who Steve is talking about.
Yabba
There is no way to explain that away.
Definitely a mishap!
No change since the, y’know, Election. (bit better, actually). Unusual in itself, forget what seats the LNP have to get back before they can start, but, as you were.
Davidwh
NDNW unless theyve messaged before.
Nixon Did Nothing Wrongsays:
Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 10:07 pm
Despite the Left-wing media’s best efforts, it looks as if Australians have seen through Labor’s spin at just how terrible this budget really is. Thanks to Jimflation, Dutton is all but a shoe-in for 2025.
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I think your moniker speaks for itself, Tricky Dicky.
Quote: “I am not a crook”
Steve sorry I was trying to be funny. I knew who you meant.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 10:09 pm
FUBAR well done on the Melbourne defeat. Given enough of those upsets and the Lions may still make the 8.
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They did beat by 20 goals the only side that has defeated Sydney this year. That must count for something?.
Davidwh
Granted.
Entropy Hipwood just got a week suspension so that is a positive for next week against the Hawks.
Newspoll has been the most accurate polling in recent years
Still have a sneaky suspicion that Shanahan had inside knowledge of that Newspoll.
On the same page is news ltd and the west Australian.Within 5 minutes of Newspoll main story online west aust is Newspoll result.
Waiting for a bad result to really go to town Stokes.
Been Theresays:
Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 10:09 pm
Hi Nadia 88 hope all’s good with you.
You seem disappointed with the positive result for Labor via Newspoll.
Newspoll seems to be the only credible poll these days, much to my surprise regarding previous years.
=======================
All good with me, Been There!
Told you a couple of weeks ago, I only do late night posting on “newspoll night” so we don’t cross paths that often.
Per Newspoll – not disappointed, but more surprised.
I’ll be more interested when I get the polling period dates. Resolve had more dates polled post Budget, but Newspoll has not declared their poll period, per WB’s comments.
The YouGov poll yesterday was ridiculous, because the polling period covered the pre-Budget period.
I’ll be interested to know the period in which Newspoll actually polled.
A bit of a rant from me (thanks in advance for either scrolling through, or indulging me in my rant).
Dr Doolittle
So, do you think his post about me (below) is OK? I think he is certainly slagging me off.
And he cannot even use the truth defence. I am at least 10 years older than he figures. Hell, my friends and I still have our “Shame Fraser Shame” badges.
And I am also really pissed off about the casual, misogynist way (he definitely calls me “she”), he dismisses what my real experiences have been.
In late December 1994, I had to “calmly” talk my husband out of killing me (I told him “I am not worth it – you do not want to spend the rest of your life in jail because you killed someone as worthless as I am.) I watched him, in between me and the wall phone, knowing that he would snap and strangle me if I moved, before I could call triple zero.
My two youngest children watched on. Somehow my cold and derisive tone worked – that was not a foregone conclusion, just my best intuitive hope at the time. He then appeared to leave the house, and I sat with my children, all of us shaking. But after 20 minutes or so, I did not hear his car leave from the driveway, and so I went to look in the garage. My children followed.
I then saw husband trying to hang himself. I went to support his weight, while screaming to my 6-year-old to call triple zero.
Anyway, the Police came, talked to my husband, and then they came and talked to me. They said that all my husband wanted was to get back with me, and as long as I said yes, there would be no problems. I said no, and they pissed off quick smart, leaving me to deal with murderous / suicidal husband.
I was actually lucky that the support systems that the Hawke / Keating governments had put into place allowed me to study for a PhD and support my children (yes, there were four of them).
Why a PhD – well, I guess you play to your strengths, and try and make a living as best you can using them. For me it was mathematics and physics. And you know, I did manage to make a reasonable living (nothing fancy, state schools, but I am also a strong believer in public education, so that was always going to be the case).
We never had a lot of money, but I managed to provide a decent and interesting life for them – a mother with a PhD in astrophysics provides a surprising amount of street cred! And their schools loved having me and my telescopes, showing them the sun (with appropriate solar filters) and the stars.
As a PostScript. In 1996, I was talking to a friend of mine, whose husband was a police prosecutor. Much of his work was prosecuting males who had killed their intimate partners. This latter fact only becomes important after the next few sentences.
I grumbled to my friend that my ex-husband had kicked my eldest son out of his house. My eldest was actually living with my ex for two reasons – 1) He thought at least one of the kids should live with his dad, who he thought needed looking after, and 2) He was sick of living with the youngest two, who were pretty hyperactive.
So, my Ex rang me one Sunday and told me he had kicked out our oldest son. Apparently although he had a sprained ankle, and could not play rugby league, his father insisted that he should go along to the game to “support the team”. Oldest said no – he also had a large number of school assignments due.
So, anyway, Ex only lets me know this after oldest son has left his home. And we are talking before mobile phones.
Three hours later, son turns up at my place, much to my relief. He had had to walk along the railway tracks between Lapstone and Glenbrook, with his sprained ankle.
So, I tell my friend this, just as “I cannot believe what Ex has done to the kids now”. The next day she comes back to me and says “Police Prosecutor says sell your house now. Your Ex has exactly the right profile to kill you, and the jointly owned house will be a trigger. Afterwards, he will be very, very sorry, but you will be very, very dead.”
So, I suggested selling the house, and Ex agreed. When I moved out, Ex actually said to me – it is good you are moving out of this house. I won’t feel so angry at you.
So, while Nicholas thought I was having some “sexual awakening” (I mean who even thinks about another poster in those terms), I was actually trying to escape a violent relationship, and make a life for myself and my kids.
Yeah, doing a PhD may seem like a “privileged” way to do it, but seriously, there were not that many career paths open to women in my situation at that time. And I just happened to be good at maths and physics.
Postcript: In 1998, I remember taking my youngest, the one who had to call triple zero when his father tried to hang himself, after a basketball match in the quaint working class suburb of Werrington NSW, through the Maccas drive through in Emu Plains – another of those quaint working class suburbs that I am sure Nicholas Haines is very proud that he does not know the existence of.
At this stage my mother and my older children were helping me look after the younger two when I had to do “field work”. It was only about four weeks of the year, but god some people made me feel guilty about it, despite the fact that my children were very well cared for.
So, going through Maccas drive-through on the way home from basketball, I said to youngest “I am really sorry, I think I forgot to tell you I need to go to Chile tomorrow for observing for a week. Nana is going to look after you. He said “Mum, you have mad job, but the pay really sucks”.
And now, the kids have “mad” jobs – although their pay is OK, and they respect science and critical thinking, and make a point of telling me how they are passing this knowledge and skills onto their children, my grandchildren.
Yes Victoria, hence the stunned silence here from the usual LNP/Anti Labor boosters.
Davidwh you’re not at the Outback Opera at Winton?
davidwhsays:
Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 10:20 pm
Entropy Hipwood just got a week suspension so that is a positive for next week against the Hawks.
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It was very poor umpiring though. Hipwood did a dangerous tackle and the ball dislodged from the Richmond player. So the bias Brisbane umpires gave Hipwood a free kick for it. Yet now he is getting a week suspension for it too. You don’t need that sort of umpiring help against a team you are going to beat by 20 goals though.
An even 27% think the budget will be good for the economy, which is in fact the equal worst result since the Abbott government’s first budget in 2014.
_____________________
A very interesting stat that one. Equal worst on record alongside Abbott.
Douglas and Milkosays:
Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 10:29 pm
A bit of a rant from me (thanks in advance for either scrolling through, or indulging me in my rant).
Dr Doolittle
Dr Doolittle says:
Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 11:19 pm
Entropy at 11.01 pm
Nicholas is a good contributor, who tries to offer helpful insights and doesn’t slag off on others.
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To be fair i think “Dr Doolittle” was referring to a poster called “Nicholas Haines”. Both he and a poster called “Nicholas” had posted similar things on immigration. I queried if they were the same poster. I gather from “Dr Doolittle’s” reply that they are not?. Though i must say i wasn’t quite following “Dr Doolittle’s” reply to me in that post though.
Aqualung no spending some time at home.
Entropy the way Hipwood has been playing this year he needs all the help he can get. But point taken.
@Douglas & Milko,
Amazing stuff. I look forward to seeing that on Australian Story one day.
As they say at meetin’s: Thank you for sharing.
steve davissays:
Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 10:25 pm
Still have a sneaky suspicion that Shanahan had inside knowledge of that Newspoll.
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Certainly if the words in the article you posted. Where written in an article or updated into an existing article today. I certainly would agree with you. If those words were there in an article on Friday, as others have claimed, i can’t see how it could be possible though.
Douglas and Milkosays:
Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 10:29 pm
A bit of a rant from me (thanks in advance for either scrolling through, or indulging me in my rant).
_____________________
Was going to scroll but then started reading.
Bloody hell.
I remember a post from you many years ago complaining about your Uni flying you overseas in Economy and not up the pointy end.
So I always had you down as a bit of a snob, but i remember your supportive post after my rant about all the crap i went through in 2023. So I was wrong.
All I can do is return the favour. What a terrible situation for you and your children and glad it all seems to be behind you.
Douglas and milko
Kudos to you and your family!
Entropy
Nicholas and Nicholas Haines are the same poster.
I know this because Nicholas linked to the Nicholas Haines Independent Australia article, saying that he wrote it.
Note, I am not disagreeing that Nicholas (Haines) is an engaging and erudite writer.
I am saying that he is scathing about anyone he perceives as disagreeing with this political point of view, even if you do not know you are disagreeing with it, as in my case.
I dont know what 73% of the punters wanted Chalmers to do, because some wanted cost of living help,and others said inflation would go up because of it. Damned if you do,damned if you dont.
There is so much political apathy about I think most punters just make shit up pretending they know. Most dont even know who their local member is.
Davidwh @ #37 Sunday, May 19th, 2024 – 10:43 pm
No worries. I was reading an article about Bribie Island yesterday.
It’s put me off. Sounds like a hoons paradise
U+1F631
Should have used this one
😱
MABWM
Thanks!
Definitely not Australian Story worth, but thanks for saying that 🙂 . It is amazing how many women my age have similar stories.
It is perhaps the banality of domestic violence that is the big story.
”
steve davissays:
Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 10:25 pm
Still have a sneaky suspicion that Shanahan had inside knowledge of that Newspoll.
”
I am with you on that suspicion.
😱
Oy vey
Ven
Also that article has disappeared completely from the Oz website.