The post-budget Newspoll in The Australian offers good news for Labor on voting intention, despite recorded an at best subdued reaction to the budget. Labor holds a two-party lead of 52-48, out from 51-48 in the last poll four weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 34% (up one), Coalition 37% (down one) and Greens 13% (steady). Anthony Albanese also records his best personal numbers since before the referendum, with approval up three to 47% and disapproval down three to 47%, and widens his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister from 48-35 to 52-33. Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 50%
The less happy news for Labor comes with responses to the budget, which 39% think will worsen inflation compared with only 15% who think it will be favourable. An even 27% think the budget will be good for the economy, which is in fact the equal worst result since the Abbott government’s first budget in 2014. However, the result is better on anticipated impact on personal finances, presumably reflecting response to the tax cut changes: 27% expect it will improve them compared with 29% for worse, which is substantially better than the minus 16% and minus 35% net ratings recorded in the May 2023 and October 2022 budgets. No detail yet as to field dates or sample size. UPDATE: Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1280.
In Nine Newspapers, Resolve Strategic has its worst result for Labor this term, with the qualification that it was a markedly pro-Labor series until the end of last year, and has since been closer to the pack. Labor is down a point from a month ago to 29%, the Coalition is steady on 36%, the Greens are down one to 12%, One Nation is up two 7% and the United Australia Party is steady on 2%. The pollster does not produce a two-party preferred result, and calculating one is complicated by its large 12% reading for a generic “independent” option. My own favoured method of estimating the result from preference flows at the last election, which rolls independents together an “others” category, has Labor barely ahead 50.2-49.8. Anthony Albanese also takes a knock on his personal ratings, with his combined very good and good rating down four points to 39%, with poor and very poor up four to 49%. Peter Dutton is respectively at 39%, down one, and 42%, steady. However, Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 40-32, in from 41-32.
Other than that, the budget seems to have been reasonably well received by respondents, with 40% rating it good for their household, 41% good for the country, 38% good for the economy and 34% good for fighting inflation, with respective poor ratings of 21%, 21%, 21% and 27%. Questions about five specific budget items found strong support for all of them, including 68% support for the stage three tax cut changes with only 8% opposed, and 62% for Future Made in Australia with only 10% opposed. However, 60% felt the government was handling immigration in an “unplanned and unmanaged way”, compared with only 20% for planned and managed. Sixty-six felt immigration numbers too high last year, 23% about right and only 2% too low, but expectations for next year were less unfavourable at 50%, 35% and 4% respectively. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1602.
Also seeking arrest warrants for Yoav Gallant the Defence Minister and the leaders of Hamas.
Huge news.
Griff says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:21 pm
What religious discrimination act?
The ALP and LNP had the same policy on SSM for decades. Penny Wong voted against it. The Liberal Government then enacted SSM.
Senator Brian Harridine, who was a unionist and member of the ALP before becoming an independent Senator was the one who forced the RU-486 policy.
So, you got nothing.
Griffsays:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:21 pm
FUBAR says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:07 pm
Pretty sure the DLP was basically the Catholic wing of the ALP, but that’s ancient history.
Those making the claim about religious influence of the LNP – a challenge – what policy or legislation was or is driven by religion that differs significantly from the ALP? (Which rules out School Counsellors and Private School Funding ) I’m not even asking for you to specify Fundamentalist/Pentecostals – just one policy.
__________
Too easy. Take three for starters:
Religious discrimination bill
SSM
RU-486 decision
=================================================
Morrison saying he would move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. A certain person he put on the White house invitation list. A few more in this article too.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nobody-quite-understood-what-role-did-religion-play-in-scott-morrison-s-bulldozer-moves-20240219-p5f60m.html
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:29 pm
Also seeking arrest warrants for Yoav Gallant the Defence Minister and the leaders of Hamas.
Huge news.
If it is true, it sure is.
ICC prosecutor applies for arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders
The International Criminal Court’s prosecutor has applied for arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif over the war in Gaza triggered by Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel.
Karim Khan announced the applications, which relate to allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity, on Monday. Five applications were issued in total, including for Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh.
The ICC’s judges must now decide whether to issue the warrants.
Khan’s move is a dramatic escalation of the legal proceedings sparked by the war in Gaza, which began after Hamas militants stormed into Israel on October 7, where they killed 1,200 people and took a further 250 hostage, according to Israeli officials.
In response, Israel launched a devastating assault on Gaza, which has so far killed more than 35,000 people, according to Palestinian officials, as well as displacing more than 1.7mn of its 2.3mn inhabitants and reducing much of the territory to uninhabitable rubble.
FUBAR
Successful takeover seems to be followed by immediate electoral failure, have you noticed the pattern yet?
Will be very interesting if the ICC agrees to issue the arrest warrants.
Entropy says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:32 pm
Moving the Embassy to the Capital of Israel made sense to me. I didn’t see that as religious – and zero relevance to most Australians. Does anyone care where any of our Embassies are located?
Invitations to dinners – massive policy issue. Apparently.
Really? Is that it?
Pretty sure the DLP was basically the Catholic wing of the ALP, but that’s ancient history.
Pretty sure you are being flippant but if not that is a really shallow and wrong depiction of what happened. The schism was as disruptive of the Australian Catholic church as it was of the ALP.
FUBAR says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:32 pm
Griff says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:21 pm
What religious discrimination act?
The ALP and LNP had the same policy on SSM for decades. Penny Wong voted against it. The Liberal Government then enacted SSM.
Senator Brian Harridine, who was a unionist and member of the ALP before becoming an independent Senator was the one who forced the RU-486 policy.
So, you got nothing.
__________
Did you think I posted to change your mind? Of course not. I enjoy seeing how you explain events. This was an excellent response. My favourite is the first – outright ignorance 🙂
Edit: Ignorance is more accurate than denial is it was posed as a question.
Karim Kuthe has certainly thrown the Cat Amongst The Pigeons. What will the judges do? What will the USA do?
No. Sorry. You’ll have to explain.
Fred
The United States is not a state party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court so I expect not much.
”
Aqualungsays:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:27 pm
UNSW has built lots of accommodation for students. There is an apartment complex opposite Randwick bus depot that was built on part of the old tram network reservation. There’s plenty surrounding the uni. I’m not sure about Sydney or Macquarie Universities.
”
Aqualung
Most of it is old accomodation. But John Howard policy has opened flood gates for foreign students because Universities need funds to operate their Universities.
Like UNSW, ANU also has some student accommodation. But these accommodations need to be catered for both domestic and international students.
If the arrest warrant is issued Benjamin Netanyahu is pretty much stuck in Israel. He can flee to Russia I Suppose.
I was, but only because of the garbage being pedalled about the LNP.
FUBAR says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:45 pm
Fred
The United States is not a state party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court so I expect not much.
True, but what will the USA say.
Benjamin Netanyahu already has legal issues in Israel.
I wonder what The Australian Govt position on the sought ICC arrest warrants will be?
Griff says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:38 pm
There is no Federal or State Religious Discrimination Act – the Federal Bill was shelved. So, there is no policy or Act.
”Entropy how will you be celebrating the second anniversary of the election of the Albo govt on Wednesday?”
Another anniversary of sorts. Today Albo passed Tony Abbott’s time in office to become Australia’s 21st longest-serving Prime Minister (of 31).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia_by_time_in_office#Rank_by_time_in_office
FUBAR says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:54 pm
Griff says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:38 pm
There is no Federal or State Religious Discrimination Act – the Federal Bill was shelved. So, there is no policy or Act.
__________
Ah, so you do recall the Bill…
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:51 pm
I wonder what The Australian Govt position on the sought ICC arrest warrants will be?
=========================================================
It is an arrest warrant for a trial. You generally don’t say much as you don’t know if the trial will find him guilty or not. Though in this case i don’t think he will front the court at all.
In matters like this don’t you say. I should not comment on matters that are before the court.
EXCLUSIVE: ICC seeks arrest warrants against Sinwar and Netanyahu for war crimes over October 7 attack and Gaza war
https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/20/middleeast/icc-israel-hamas-arrest-warrant-war-crimes-intl?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17162047220447&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2024%2F05%2F20%2Fmiddleeast%2Ficc-israel-hamas-arrest-warrant-war-crimes-intl%2Findex.html
“The International Criminal Court is seeking arrest warrants for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity over the October 7 attacks on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the court’s chief prosecutor Karim Khan told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour in an exclusive interview on Monday.
Khan said the ICC is also seeking warrants for Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as two other top Hamas leaders — Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, the leader of the Al Qassem Brigades and better known as Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader.
The warrants against the Israeli politicians mark the first time the ICC has targeted the top leader of a close ally of the United States. The decision puts Netanyahu in the company of the Russian President Vladimir Putin, for whom the ICC issued an arrest warrant over Moscow’s war on Ukraine.”
Griff says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:57 pm
The Bill didn’t become an Act. So there is zero impact. There’s no law or regulations made relating to it. It’s irrelevant.
You’ve proven my point – there is no major legislation or government policies by the LNP that were driven by religious beliefs that differ significantly from the ALP. None. The claims that the LNP is beholden to religious beliefs of any type are rubbish.
Aren’t the government trying to negotiate a new Religious Discrimination Act with the parties at this time?
Assange wins.
Let the bloodletting commence.
FUBARsays:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 10:04 pm
Griff says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:57 pm
The Bill didn’t become an Act. So there is zero impact. There’s no law or regulations made relating to it. It’s irrelevant.
You’ve proven my point – there is no major legislation or government policies by the LNP that were driven by religious beliefs that differ significantly from the ALP. None. The claims that the LNP is beholden to religious beliefs of any type are rubbish.
=================================================
The religious control of the Liberal party keeps increasing. Possibly no major legislation differences now but how long will that last?.
“An Australian right-wing Christian conference has been urged to flood the country’s Liberal parties with members to gain long-term influence and ensure conservative religious candidates “prevail” in every branch.”
“Former federal Queensland LNP MP George Christensen argued Western culture was possessed by Satan – “literally or metaphorically” – and civilisation would end within our lifetimes unless Christians acted or Jesus returned first. He suggested anyone who spoke up was “declared an extremist and a terrorist” – an apparent reference to the Wieambilla shooting trio recently labelled the country’s first extremist Christian terror attack.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/long-march-the-right-wing-christian-plan-to-infiltrate-politics-20230306-p5cpod.html
C@tmomma says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 10:14 pm
“Aren’t the government trying to negotiate a new Religious Discrimination Act with the parties at this time?”
We wouldn’t know – the ALP are making everyone they talk to about it sign Non Disclosure Agreements. This is the ALP that claimed they were going to be transparent ( when it suits them).
So the discussion about the last one is kind of moot.
Entropy says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 10:15 pm
Come back when you have some real evidence.
FUBAR,
The Albanese government are smart enough to know that this is a delicate discussion which needs to occur miles away from screaming headlines and the ACL. That the parties, even your own, are abiding by that tells you that they are taking the matter seriously as well. So should you. Stop trying to score cheap political points off it and be grateful that the adults in the room are working in good faith in their negotiations so that we end up with legislation which receives bipartisan support in the parliament, and hence sticks should a change of government occur. As opposed to being used as a divisive political football.
Rewisays:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 10:15 pm
Assange wins.
Let the bloodletting commence.
==============================================
Unfortunately he only won the right to appeal. Not the right to freedom though. While i think Assange is a bit of a tosser. I do believe he and his organisations were working as journalists. Even if their journalism had a cowboy approach at times. I think basically he is not guilty of the USA charges. The Swedish charges is another matter but they are no longer relevant now.
FUBAR,
Entropy can come back anytime they want. It’s not your blog. Though I admit, the default position of Liberals is one of them as BSDs and Masters of the Universe.
FUBARsays:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 10:21 pm
Entropy says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 10:15 pm
Come back when you have some real evidence.
================================================
That’s like waiting till you have a dictatorship before being allowed to complain about it. The best time to complain about a party going down a dangerous path is when the first evidence arises they are heading that way.
Assange is a coward. He’s lost every court case so far. He will lose this appeal. Hopefully that will be the last of it in UK courts and he will be extradited to the US to face the full weight of the US justice system – unless Biden sees some votes in letting him off.
Julian Assange may have been a journalist, but he was no editor. I also think that it’s time that he was released from prison while his Appeal takes place, he’s pretty much spent the best years of his life in one kind of prison or another, the Bolivian (?) Embassy included. America should drop their extradition proceedings as well. I also think that if Assange is released and allowed to come back home that he should have strict conditions placed upon him and his freedom that prevents him from engaging in any more shenanigans.
This drug-dealing clown needs to suffer the consequences in Indonesia, why is this
a ‘test for Albo’?? I couldn’t give a shit who he’s the father of, get stuffed smh 😡
“After high-drama capture, Haas’ life all but rests in the hands of Australian diplomats”
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/after-high-drama-capture-haas-life-all-but-rests-in-the-hands-of-australian-diplomats-20240520-p5jf4u.html
I also think that Ben Roberts-Smith should face the full impact of the law for his war crimes. As adjudicated in his Defamation case. There needs to be consequences for soldier cowboys, as well as any other kind.
C@tmommasays:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 10:44 pm
I also think that Ben Roberts-Smith should face the full impact of the law for his war crimes. As adjudicated in his Defamation case. There needs to be consequences for soldier cowboys, as well as any other kind.
======================================================
My conclusion from his defamation case is he is a psychopathic killer. It is very worrying that we have someone with those traits and being highly trained in the art of killing. Being allowed to be free in society at present.
davo,
It’s an open and shut case, really. The government has signed up to the protocol whereby citizens cannot be sent to a country to face the death penalty. You either oppose death penalty, or you don’t oppose it. Australia opposes it. So they will oppose it for one of their own citizens. It’s no ‘test ‘ for the government, it’s their policy.
It’s actually a test for Peter Dutton, if it’s a test for anyone. Does he oppose the death penalty or not?
Entropy,
The actions of Ben Roberts-Smith in order to try and conceal his crimes and intimidate witnesses shows what a calculating individual he is.
”the Bolivian (?) Embassy ”
It was the Ecuadorian Embassy, but right continent.
Of course this saga has gone on way too long.
C@tmommasays:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Entropy,
The actions of Ben Roberts-Smith in order to try and conceal his crimes and intimidate witnesses shows what a calculating individual he is.
===================================================
I do worry for his ex-wife who testified against him. The sooner he is locked away the better it will be for her.
FUBAR says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 10:04 pm
Griff says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 9:57 pm
The Bill didn’t become an Act. So there is zero impact. There’s no law or regulations made relating to it. It’s irrelevant.
You’ve proven my point – there is no major legislation or government policies by the LNP that were driven by religious beliefs that differ significantly from the ALP. None. The claims that the LNP is beholden to religious beliefs of any type are rubbish.
________
You said “Those making the claim about religious influence of the LNP – a challenge – what policy or legislation was or is driven by religion that differs significantly from the ALP?”. Just because the LNP couldn’t get their Bill up doesn’t mean they didn’t want it.
Perhaps I shall leave it there 😉
Protecting religious freedoms is now a bad thing. Got it.
sprocket_ says:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 6:55 pm
David Littleproud is straying off the reservation…
Why doesn’t he release the secret polling?
Nationals Leader David Littleproud
May 20, 2024
Nationals leader – and Member for Maranoa – David Littleproud says the Federal Coalition has “six or seven” sites in mind for nuclear power plants around Australia, but has not revealed the locations.
This is despite Mr Littleproud saying earlier this year (see below) he was prepared to lead a discussion about siting a nuclear power plant in the Kingaroy area.
“We have done extensive polling of the electorates, we’ll be looking at six or seven sites … and they have been very supportive of a nuclear future,” Mr Littleproud told Sky News’ “Sunday Agenda” TV program.
_________________________________________
I live in Kingaroy – (without checking I wouldn’t be surprised if it were the largest population area in the Maranoa Electorate) – and I can reassure you that little to no one in Kingaroy/Nanango would like to have a Nuclear Reactor in their back yard. Indeed, the swing may be so great against Littleproud, he might even lose his seat.
I can’t see him making an announcement to that effect before the election.
I don’t mind people having religious freedom providing the rest of us get guaranteed freedom from religion.
Ronzy,
Which party, or would an Independent, be best placed to campaign against Littleproud?
The sites for the placement of the Coalition’s nuclear power plants has really become a hot potato for them, excuse the pun. Dutton has avoided every opportunity to put down the markers, as is Littleproud.
It’s obvious to me that the owners of the sites for them, as stated by the Uber Tuber, to be on the sites of former Coal-fired power stations, is being strongly resisted behind the scenes by the owners of those sites as well. They want to put Renewables on their sites to also take advantage of the infrastructure to carry the power away. My guess is that Dutton and Littleproud will not detail the sites and instead come up with some baloney about ‘feasibility studies ‘ before the election.
Good luck with getting that sleight of hand past the Australian people.
”
Entropysays:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 10:49 pm
C@tmommasays:
Monday, May 20, 2024 at 10:44 pm
I also think that Ben Roberts-Smith should face the full impact of the law for his war crimes. As adjudicated in his Defamation case. There needs to be consequences for soldier cowboys, as well as any other kind.
======================================================
My conclusion from his defamation case is he is a psychopathic killer. It is very worrying that we have someone with those traits and being highly trained in the art of killing. Being allowed to be free in society at present.
”
And awarded the highest military award.
Cat,
Given that Dorothy Pratt won the State Seat for One Nation in 1998 and then retained it as an Independent at four consecutive elections I can’t see it going to the ALP. However it could be a real possibility for a Teal style Independent.