As it usually does in the post-Christmas quiet spot, The Australian today brings us aggregated results from recent Newspoll surveys with voting intention and leaders’ ratings broken down by state and various demographic indicators. Unfortunately, only three polls have been conducted since the exercise was last conducted in mid-October, resulting in an unusually modest overall sample of 3655, breaking down to as little as 277 in the case of South Australia (with no repeat of the October aggregate’s inclusion of a Tasmanian result).
With due caution for the wide error margins, the state breakdowns are remarkable for how close they are to the results of the 2022 election, with Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (compared with 51.4-48.6 at the election), 55-45 in Victoria (54.8-45.2), 54-46 in Western Australia (55.0-45.0) and 55-45 in South Australia (54.0-46.0), and the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (54.0-46.0). The gender breakdowns unusually find Labor in a slightly stronger position among men (leading 53-47, out from 51-49 in the October aggregate) than women (in from 56-44 to 52-48), but I would hesitate to read much into it at this stage. You can find most of the results by clicking on the relevant tabs in the BludgerTrack poll data feature.
UPDATE: There is also today a similar exercise from Nine Newspapers from its last three monthly Resolve Strategic polls, though the interest level is limited in this case by the fact that breakdowns for the three largest states are published with each poll. Whereas Newspoll finds no state swinging by more than 1% compared with the election, Resolve Strategic, which has been markedly more favourable for Labor than other pollsters, records a very wide range of results. The pollster does not provide two-party preferred numbers, but my own estimates suggest swings to Labor of around 3.5% in New South Wales, 3% in Victoria, 6.5% in Queensland and 9% in South Australia, and to the Coalition of around 2% in Western Australia. Also featured are breakdowns by three age cohorts, which follow the usual patterns.
Irene says:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 5:20 pm
Boerwar.
If it is white, or European people doing the killing, massacres, genocide it is OK. In your view.
And they have done plenty over the centuries.
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That’s funny. I have exactly the opposite impression about the views of most posters here. It’s ok if they are not white (Putin excepted) or friends of the USA. I mean, how many posts here about the Rohingya for example?
I don’t suppose Trump’s diet almost entirely made up of cheeseburgers and Diet Coke would have anything to do with Trump’s olfactory assaults.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/29/suburban-rail-loop-melbourne-victoria-government-billion-dollar-project
The Vic Libs need to offer some sort of broad infrastructure plan before the next election if they want to be taken seriously. Rehashing E/W link won’t do it.
Wat Tylersays:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 5:12 pm
Entropy, I think that’s the nature of governments. You usually can find something positive a bad government did and, likewise, a bad thing that a good government did, this especially becomes true the longer that government lasted.
Needless to say, that’s not to say that the good thing makes the government good or the bad thing makes the government bad. It’s a sum of all its parts and, of course, they’re weighted by the harm/good they cause.
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Yep, i can think of one or two that Turnbull at least tried to do. I can even maybe think of one for Morrison but having trouble thinking of any for Abbott though.
Entropy
October 7th probably exceeded Hamas wildest dreams of its capacity.
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Exactly my point. They will do whatever they can. And if they had the capacity to slaughter the Jewish population of Israel or push them into the sea they would have.
Wat Tyler @ #596 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 5:03 pm
The Israeli Minister for State Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, believes that all Arabs in Greater Israel should be driven out, and has said so, many times. He has used the quote below many times, in political speeches and TV interviews. He is a mirror image of Hamas. Is that simple enough for you?
Taking sides in this never-ending shit fight is profoundly stupid. Evil is evil. Blowing kids to bits is evil, no matter who does it. Saying that it is justified is also evil.
Has the moratorium been lifted …?
Irene:
Israel is being given a chance for genocide of the Palestinians with US President Biden’s support. To suggest Hamas, even with assistance, can do similar to Israel is ridiculous. The usual scare tactics rearing its head.
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They said the same about Hitler until he did. Then the world said “so sorry, we never thought it would happen”. Israel knows it can rely on nobody to save its people other than itself. Which is why it does not care what the hand wringers say. Especially those who propose a one party Arab state and far left one-eyed hypocrites like yourself.
Pretty good effort from Pakistan to reach 200 in the 4th innings against our NSW heroes.
BK @ #603 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 5:22 pm
It has been rumoured for years that he is incontinent and needs to wear adult nappies. If true that might explain the odour.
I can’t imagine though that his poor diet is conducive to good digestive health.
‘Irene says:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 5:20 pm
Boerwar.
If it is white, or European people doing the killing, massacres, genocide it is OK. In your view.
And they have done plenty over the centuries.’
————————
Pure deflection from Xi, Kim, et al.
Long term Bludgers will know precisely my view about killings, massacres and the like during the European imperial period – including those of Indigenous people in Australia and including those in Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam.
You see I don’t distinguish between who is doing the evil stuff. The Dutch were, IMO, an evil colonial regime in Indonesia for four centuries. Their transformation of self-sufficient villagers into coolie labour killed many, many Indonesians. Various wars of colonization in the Indonesian archipelago, ditto. The Indonesian War of Independence, ditto.
The fact remains that the Japanese killed more Indonesians in a couple of years than the Dutch did in 400 years and the Indonesians killed more of each other in a year than the Dutch did in 400 years.
None of any of that is in any way excusable.
But I deal in all the facts. Not just those paraded by self-loathing westerners.
Back to you on Xi, Kim, Laos and the Vietnamese regime.
Looking at other comments, in terms of how Australia approaches relations with other countries in the Indo-Pacific, I think Australia needs to take a long term view, stick to basic principles, and consider security partners based purely on our long term self interest.
Starting with the last issue, I think it makes a lot of sense for Australia to have closer security and economic ties with both India and Indonesia. Australia does not really have major security or border conflicts with either. We now face a common threat, and have obvious economic synergies, with we being a resource rich economy that could export to two fast growing service economies that are now developing manufacturing. USA might withdraw from the western Pacific, but India and Indonesia will always be here.
I do not pretend that either India or Indonesia have perfect records on human rights either now or in the past. Modi is a genuine concern in his tendency to nationalist autocracy. Yet both are still democratic, capitalist and developing fast.
The more Australia and similar countries work with India and Indonesia the more those institutions will strengthen. It took England 200 years to go from recognising the sovereignty of parliament to being a genuine capitalist democracy with universal suffrage. Despite corruption and internal racism, both India and Indonesia are still advancing in ways that are lifting tens of millions out of poverty, even though many remain in poverty. People like Modi come and go.
I don’t really agree with the idea that democracy, free markets, the rule of law and individual rights are only modern and only “western” values. They are values that have existed before in stable, well governed countries. They were absent in the west from the fall of Greece and Republican Rome until the enlightenment, over 1000 years.
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-51695-0_36#:~:text=From%20these%20tablets%20emerged%20the,Greeks%2C%20but%20existing%20millennia%20before
Confucian China had all of them except democracy at the time of ancient Greece. The Kyivan Russ had individual freedom and liberty 500 years before Russian conquest took them away and 1000 years before the Soviet era. Iceland had an elected parliament in the tenth century (and ever since). The ancient Summerians had a limited form of tribal democracy at least 1000 years before Greece.
History also shows us that the success and progression of individual rights and freedom are not linear. They can be lost. Corruption and weakness make any state vulnerable, so a weak democracy can still be defeated by a strong autocracy. Aristotle pointed this out in The Politics 2300 years ago.
Hence post Morrison I hope Australia becomes less corrupt, economically and militarily stronger (necessary with Putin and Xi on the scene) and a better neighbour. Obviously, as well as improving relations with developing democracies like India and Indonesia, we should keep close to the already developed democratic allies we have here especially Japan and South Korea.
Back home again and already missing Tas. I’ve decided I’ll try to get back there in February/March to visit Freycinet which I unfortunately didn’t get to this time around.
Rex Douglas @ #610 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 5:30 pm
Yes they are looking the goods now.
Rex Douglassays:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 5:23 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/29/suburban-rail-loop-melbourne-victoria-government-billion-dollar-project
The Vic Libs need to offer some sort of broad infrastructure plan before the next election if they want to be taken seriously. Rehashing E/W link won’t do it.
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Why Rex?. Reminding us all of O’Brien’s side letter again seems a great plan. Even more inspired than bringing up “African gangs” again, i suspect. There is nothing that can stop that election losing machine, that is the Victorian LNP, when it gets its momentum going.
Hamas is not an entirely a separate or independent entity.
Its military or strategic potential is, therefore, not to be viewed in isolation.
It is a proxy along with Heshbollah, various other non-state actors in Iraq and Syria and the Houthis for Iran. Iran funds them and provides them with weapons and munitions.
Heshbollah has succeeded in forcing some 200,000 Israelis from their homes. The Houthis have semi-succeeded in blockading the Red Sea. Non state actors in Iraq are firing off missiles at the US.
I am not sure who, if anyone, is funding the Gazan jihadi group with whom Hamas is in competition in Gaza.
I try to adhere to Mr Bowe’s guidelines.
Seems others don’t bother.
Boerwar
I agree with your characterisation of Hamas and Hezbolah. My opposition to Israel bombing Gaza does not imply support for either of them. Like you I am against the massacres and their perpetrators.
There could be multiple potential funders of a Hamas rival including Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
I didn’t know much about 1965 in Indonesia till I read Gyngell’s book, and even that only covers it briefly. Quite shocking. Let us hope Australian history continues to be free of such chapters.
The world is a sad sad place
“Visegrád 24 @visegrad24
·
Dec 28. BREAKING:
The official death toll of the Christmas mass-murder on Christians by Muslims in Nigeria has risen to 198
20 villages were attacked. In some cases, people were murdered in churches where they had gathered to celebrate Christmas
Any protest marches planned in London?”
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1740052984384663784?s=20
TPOFsays:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 5:29 pm
Irene:
Israel is being given a chance for genocide of the Palestinians with US President Biden’s support. To suggest Hamas, even with assistance, can do similar to Israel is ridiculous. The usual scare tactics rearing its head.
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They said the same about Hitler until he did.
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Are you seriously comparing the military capabilities of Germany on the eve of WW2 with Hamas?. Hamas is a rabble with pretty much no industrial capabilities or any ability to field a military that could in anyway be effective against the IDF. Except in limited guerrilla warfare on their own homeland against an invading army. Even then it will eventually lose. While Germany in the 1930’s was one of the most industrialised modern countries around (as they are today). With one of the most powerful military of that time.
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 5:41 pm
I try to adhere to Mr Bowe’s guidelines.
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No you don’t. Absolute lie. This post of yours at 12.02, which kicked off the whole afternoon’s moratorium breach was a blatant breach, even though you included a dishonest attack on the Government just to sneak in your attack on Israel.
“When you’re (Labor) trying to be centrist – and can’t even call out a brutal genocide without fear or favour – you show yourself as being without values or a soul.”
Very, very dishonest of you.
(Edited to include the quote from the Rex post that kicked off the Gaza deluge.
I hope that meher baba is going ok. Last time I saw him comment I was still in Hobart and he intimated he was having some personal challenges. I haven’t commented here much over the last week, but I’m sure those who have spent their entire days here (all day every day) will be able to advise whether he’s been commenting.
William:
Can we please have a separate thread for Israel et al?
It feels like every time I check in here there is a flame war about the Middle East.
entropy at 5.47. The Holocaust was not a product of Hitler’s military capacity, but of his will and the antisemites around him. Just 10 years before he became chancellor of Germany he was a failed leader of a third-rate putsch which landed him in jail.
If Hitler can gain control of so much power in just 10 years, just imagine what Hamas funded, supported and supplied by Iran and sundry other haters of Israel and Jews could do in that time if allowed to.
Soc
Indonesia ought to be our single greatest long-term security partner. India is the obvious counter-weight to China but is not nearly as important as Indonesia.
William has already said he doesn’t want to have a separate thread because he would still be required to read all of it. I expect he will be around to re-enforce the moratorium next time he checks.
‘Socrates says:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 5:44 pm
Boerwar
I agree with your characterisation of Hamas and Hezbolah. My opposition to Israel bombing Gaza does not imply support for either of them. Like you I am against the massacres and their perpetrators.
There could be multiple potential funders of a Hamas rival including Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
I didn’t know much about 1965 in Indonesia till I read Gyngell’s book, and even that only covers it briefly. Quite shocking. Let us hope Australian history continues to be free of such chapters.’
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As I said, I lost a friend in those massacres. Brings it home.
As for Australia being ‘free of such chapters’ I lived next door to a survivor from the Coniston Massacre. Every single place I lived in in the Northern Territory had its own local massacre or murder sites.
I have no ‘solutions’ for the Middle East.
Confessions says:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 5:49 pm
William:
Can we please have a separate thread for Israel et al?
It feels like every time I check in here there is a flame war about the Middle East.
_________________________________
Fess. It only happens when some poster or the other thinks they can kick it off with impunity – as Rex did today, turning a discussion about Australian politics into a claim that the Government does not oppose genocide.
I have never commented on the situation in the Middle East until someone else has introduced it. In this case I left it for a number of hours while others decided the moratorium was over.
Interestingly, the last time this happened Mr Bowe wiped all the comments that breached the moratorium. I would be quite happy for it to happen again.
‘Confessions says:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 5:48 pm
I hope that meher baba is going ok.
…’
————-
He was by earlier in the day. Posted OK.
Good call Grime.
Not.
Boerwar
“As for Australia being ‘free of such chapters’ I lived next door to a survivor from the Coniston Massacre. Every single place I lived in in the Northern Territory had its own local massacre or murder sites.”
Good point.
“I have no ‘solutions’ for the Middle East.”
Neither do I. The national boundaries left after Sykes Picot need to be fundamentally redrawn for a stable region to be possible. We can’t fix it.
Rex Douglassays:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 5:41 pm
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Actually Rex i agree with your comment. I was just being sarcastic about the Victorian LNP and pointing out they don’t do sensible. Though with all the time they spend suing each other. They might not find time for doing any policies.
So how is Irene coming along with her excoriation of the Vietnamese, Chinese, Laotion and North Korean regimes.
All good?
‘Socrates says:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 6:01 pm
Boerwar
“As for Australia being ‘free of such chapters’ I lived next door to a survivor from the Coniston Massacre. Every single place I lived in in the Northern Territory had its own local massacre or murder sites.”
Good point.
“I have no ‘solutions’ for the Middle East.”
Neither do I. The national boundaries left after Sykes Picot need to be fundamentally redrawn for a stable region to be possible. We can’t fix it.’
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I read the Koran from cover to cover. The quest was to see whether there was something there that would legitimize a modern state structure.
IMO, there isn’t. IMO this is hardly surprising when it was based on the visions of a nomadic tribal leader.
The confucians can do a legitimate state. So can the christians (render unto Caesar his due). The Koran? IMO, nope. Buddhism and Hinduism? I don’t know… I haven’t studied the matter.
Socrates
“The national boundaries left after Sykes Picot need to be fundamentally redrawn for a stable region to be possible. We can’t fix it.”
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The entire dismantling of the Ottoman Empire after the end of WW1 was a catastrophe – including the failure to guarantee a Turkish state – leading to the expulsion of almost all Greeks from Anatolia. In modern terms this would be a “genocide”, as is widely accepted the killing of over a million Armenians, a proven genocide that is still denied by the Turkish state and its president.
Rikali @ #623 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 5:46 pm
There won’t be any because the supporters of Christianity just aren’t as fanatical wrt their globally organised support networks.
Socratessays:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 4:52 pm
Oliver Sutton (from earlier)
“Soc: “Japan has talked about joining AUKUS.”
Would they then call it JUKUSA?
Maybe that sounds a bit too much like ‘Jacuzzi’. Or ‘j’accuse’ …”
Making a JAKUSI out of AUKUS is actually a good idea, and would make it a lot more relevant to who our real security partners are likely to be in the long term.
JAKUSI = Japan, Australia, South Korea, USA and India.
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Get Canada involved too – I’m sure this would be a good name and logo for it.
Apart from Taiwan, Japan and South Korea have the best cause to be seriously concerned about China’s imperial ambitions.
TPOFsays:
Friday, December 29, 2023 at 5:52 pm
entropy at 5.47.
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While i think it preposterous. You probably need to find someone else to argue with if you believe Hamas could potentially become a military power of even regional significance. I shall now leave that battlefield.
Boerwar @ #632 Friday, December 29th, 2023 – 5:59 pm
Good to know, thank you.
Boerwar
I have read the Baghavid Gita and some Buddhist texts.
Hinduism can and has certainly formed the basis of stable states with reasonable quality of life for the majority in the past. Against this the caste system ensured that never extended to the Dalits. Reformers like Manmohan Singh tried to lead India out of that, and nearly succeeded prior to Modi.
Buddhist states have been and should be the same. All powerful kings like that in Thailand are a historical feature of those cultures, not the religion. Buddhism and Hinduism coexisted in the Gupta empire in 3rd century BC.
Even with Islamic states I think it depends on the variant of Islam you consider. Wahabist Sunni is an obvious problem. More moderate islamic states (e.g. Malaysia) are prosperous, stable and happily educate the women.
Time please, gentlemen.
Australia have won the Second Test by 79 runs. If only the squad was carrying a few Victorian domestic players, Pakistan might have been victorious! 👿 (jk)
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/12/27/newspoll-aggregates-october-to-december-open-thread/comment-page-10/#comment-4202177
Or here’s the Murdoch Infotainment take, https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/anthony-albanese-made-a-lot-of-promises-in-his-election-campaign-but-has-he-delivered/
I will repost the story in tomorrow’s Dawn Patrol, but this guy will receive the Arsehole of the Year Award from me! (because I’m only doing this for a week 😉 ):
https://www.smh.com.au/national/lehrmann-judge-orders-youtuber-to-face-court-over-alleged-contempt-20231229-p5eu7f.html
Probably a One Nation member or Liberal.
C@t:
I saw that first reported a couple weeks ago. Clearly an anti-woman dickhead.
He should have the book thrown at him.
“Probably a One Nation member or Liberal.”
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Certainly sounds like a misogynist. The worse ones tend to be those whose wife and children have left them due to their abuse. So they go out and attack any woman online who claims they have been abused by men.
One thing I loved about driving in Tas was how polite the drivers are. I often say how polite Sydney drivers are, but Tasmanians are a whole other level.
I did quite a bit of driving the past week: Hobart to Launceston; Launceston to Cradle Mtn return; Launceston to Devonport return. There was a fatal crash yesterday driving back from Devonport – a motorcyclist and car collided and a woman was killed. But people in Tas seem to stick to the speed limit and are patient in between overtaking lanes.
Contrast with Sydney where drivers frequently speed to excess and tailgate you if you are driving at speed limit and not overtaking the truck/car in front.
Soc
Yep. Definitely more nuanced and complex than my basic assertion. It would be interesting to have an expert do an analysis of the relation between relativism and the Koran.
That said, it is at least possible to hypothesize that the Koran is as likely to justify non-state actors as it to justify state actors, leading to an almost permanent sense of insecurity among islamic state leaders.
Driving around Tas I did recall Brian Harradine, and wondered how much (if any) of the great road infrastructure around Launceston could be attributed to his pork barrelling during the Keating and Howard eras.