Weekend miscellany: RedBridge WA polling, trusted politicians, Senate vacancies and more (open thread)

A new poll suggests Labor is well placed to retain its federal gains in WA from 2022. Also: new incoming Labor and Greens Senators, a Liberal retirement announcement and more.

Two new items of opinion polling:

• RedBridge Group has a poll of voting intention from Western Australia, encompassing both a federal result and a state one you can read about in the post immediately above. Both are encouraging for Labor, the federal result crediting them with a 55.2-44.8 lead, effectively unchanged on a 2022 election result of 55.0-45.0. The primary votes are Labor 39% (36.8% at the election), Coalition 37% (34.8%), Greens 12% (12.5%) and One Nation 5% (4.0%). Field work dates are not provided, but the sample was 1200.

• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll on politicians’ trustworthiness, and while only scarce detail is offered, we are told three out of twenty-four had net positive results: Penny Wong, Jacinta Price and Jim Chalmers. Anthony Albanese recorded minus three, while Peter Dutton was on minus fourteen. The poll was conducted November 16 to 20 from a sample of 1095.

Preselection latest:

• Varun Ghosh, a Right-aligned barrister at Francis Burt Chambers, has been confirmed as Labor’s successor to the Western Australian Senate vacancy that will be created next month by the retirement of Pat Dodson.

• Steph Hodgins-May, former senior campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, won a Greens preselection vote to fill the Victorian Senate vacancy that will be created when Janet Rice retires in the second half of next year. Hodgins-May ran three times in the inner Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where she came very close to unseating Labor’s Josh Burns in 2022. Broede Carmody of The Age reports the other candidates were “City of Monash councillor Josh Fergeus, former Melbourne lord mayoral candidate Apsara Sabaratnam, former Legislative Council MP Huong Truong, Coburg-based surrogacy lawyer Sarah Jefford and barrister David Risstrom”.

• Nola Marino, who has held the seat of Forrest for the Liberals in Western Australia’s South West region since 2007, announced last week that she will retire at the next election. The West Australian reports former Senator Ben Small is “believed to have the inside track” to succeed her as Liberal candidate. Small is a former logistics manager at Woodside Energy and owner of a Bunbury bar and restaurant. He came to the Senate when he filled Mathias Cormann’s vacancy in November 2020 and failed to win re-election from third on the ticket in 2022.

Katina Curtis of The West Australian reports Ian Goodenough, the Liberal member for Moore, may face a second preselection challenger in Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran, former journalist and former staffer to Malcolm Turnbull and Christopher Pyne. Moran now works in government relations for shipbuilder Luerssen. It has long been anticipated Goodenough will be challenged by RSLWA chief executive Vince Connelly, who held the seat of Stirling before its abolition in 2022 and then run unsuccessfully in Cowan after losing a preselection ballot against Goodenough by 39 votes to 36.

Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Susan Morris, who runs a vascular surgery practice in Kew, will run for Liberal preselection in Kooyong. She is the second nominee after Amelia Hamer, director of strategy at tech start-up Airwallex.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

430 comments on “Weekend miscellany: RedBridge WA polling, trusted politicians, Senate vacancies and more (open thread)”

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  1. What goes around comes aroundsays:
    Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 11:51 am
    Vensays:
    Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 9:48 am
    I thought nothing will surprise me about AUKUS countries politics. I thought I became immune to their language and tactics. But my jaw keeps dropping even today.

    ——————————————————————————-
    It pretty similar to the QUAD though if you just swap UK for both India and Japan. Though AUKUS does have the advantage that none of its member states are hiring hitmen to kill the citizen of another member state. Which is something the QUAD needs to deal with and not hide away from as they all appear to be doing.

    FBI chief went to India to discuss “hiring hitmen to kill the citizen of another member state”. Foreign Minister Penny Wong met Indian FM and was briefed on that.
    That “member citizen” was a Indian citizen and classified as terrorist in India(and that classification was done by previous Indian Congress government) before he ran away to Canada using Canadian refugee loop holes, then became Canadian citizen first and US citizen later.
    That citizen issued death threats to current Indian PM and other members in the Indian cabinet. A lot of Indian citizens died in India allegedly by followers of his cult.

    BTW, why is a terrorist classified by Western countries is a terrorist but not when it comes to other terrorists or atleast treated with suspicion regarding that classification?
    Did western countries coin this phrase “terrorist of one country is a freedom fighter of another country?”

  2. Itza
    Point taken – hairs are standing on the back of my neck.
    I think stage presence is a part of it.
    In some of the rings I have enjoyed the Earth Mother has been more bag lady than goddess.

    (BTW if Wotan didn’t have the ring Fasolt would have had his way with Freia and without the Golden Apples they would have been dead within a week. This is what happens when the wife demands renovations.)

  3. Western nations are actively exploring ways to seize Russian central bank assets to fund Ukraine as political disputes in the US and Europe threaten its flow of financial support.
    G7 officials have intensified talks in recent weeks on spending some of the roughly $300bn in immobilised Russian sovereign assets, a radical step that would open a new chapter in the west’s financial warfare against Moscow.
    The push comes as two crucial financial aid packages for Ukraine worth more than $100bn faltered this week, as Republicans in the US Congress and Viktor Orbán of EU member Hungary took a stand against funding Kyiv.
    Seizing Russian assets could provide an alternative stream of funding for Kyiv, especially given the expected huge costs of postwar reconstruction.
    But until now G7 governments have mostly balked at such a move, fearing that some foreign investors in dollar and euro assets would take flight.
    Although Washington has never publicly backed confiscation, the US has privately taken a more assertive stance in recent weeks, arguing in G7 committees that there is a route to seizing the assets “consistent with international law”. “G7 members and other specially affected states could seize Russian sovereign assets as a countermeasure to induce Russia to end its aggression,” said a US government discussion paper, seen by the Financial Times, which was circulated in G7 committees. The US Treasury declined to comment.

  4. Atleast after WW2, isn’t it true a lot of terrorists were allegedly killed by hitmen of CIA, MI6, Mossad, KGB, Saudi Arabia etc.
    The most famous terrorist killed by assassins was Osama bin Laden while POTUS watched the killing.

  5. Holdenhillbilly @ #301 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 3:37 pm

    Rishi Sunak has been accused of adopting the “toxic” rhetoric of his former home secretary Suella Braverman, after he warned that migration would “overwhelm” European countries without firm action. In remarks that will further inflame the Tory row over migration that has been raging for weeks, the prime minister said that “enemies” were “deliberately driving people to our shores to try to destabilise our society”.
    Sunak made the comments at a festival in Rome organised by the far-right Brothers of Italy party, led by the Italian premier Giorgia Meloni. He said that both he and Meloni, with whom he has been forging a close relationship over hardline migration policies, were taking inspiration from Margaret Thatcher’s steadfast radicalism in their quest to do “whatever it takes” to “stop the boats”. “Criminal gangs find the ugliest ways to exploit our humanity and don’t have a problem with putting people’s lives at risk by putting them on boats,” he said. “If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries and our capacity to help those who actually need our help the most.”
    The prime minister also said changes to postwar asylum rules could be required to resolve the issue. “Because if we don’t fix this problem now, the boats will keep coming and more lives will be lost at sea,” he said. The comments will alarm moderate Tories already concerned at the hard line Sunak has adopted over migrants crossing the Channel.

    Our Labor/Albanese Govt are also going down the hardline asylum seeker/immigration policy despite our fossil fuel exports creating global boiling, extreme weather and people displacement as well as our contributions to wars and occupations.

    Shared values indeed.

  6. It’s interesting that Labor are clawing back tax from 100yo war veterans while planning to give a massive $313B S3 tax cut to the working rich.

  7. What goes around comes around @ #350 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 3:45 pm

    ItzaDreamsays:
    Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 3:24 pm
    What goes around comes around @ #338 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 3:22 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 3:01 pm
    I just thought it was ‘interesting’ that none of the STC actors wore a Jewish flag draped over their shoulders. It was the citizens of that country that suffered the initial massacre, after all.
    —————————————————————————–
    #Moratorium

    #local
    ————————————————————————-
    I have no problem with nearly all of the discussion as a local event. It is just a certain statement using the word initial that i think should not have been made. Initial implies the beginning of a chronology. I don’t believe the event was the beginning of the chronology. If it is were, where does the Nakba sit in this chronology?.

    What goes around comes around @ #350 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 3:45 pm

    ItzaDreamsays:
    Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 3:24 pm
    What goes around comes around @ #338 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 3:22 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 3:01 pm
    I just thought it was ‘interesting’ that none of the STC actors wore a Jewish flag draped over their shoulders. It was the citizens of that country that suffered the initial massacre, after all.
    —————————————————————————–
    #Moratorium

    #local
    ————————————————————————-
    I have no problem with nearly all of the discussion as a local event. It is just a certain statement using the word initial that i think should not have been made. Initial implies the beginning of a chronology. I don’t believe the event was the beginning of the chronology. If it is were, where does the Nakba sit in this chronology?.

    Correct. And I stand corrected for failing to pick it up; more hurry less speed.


  8. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 3:37 pm
    Rishi Sunak has been accused of adopting the “toxic” rhetoric of his former home secretary Suella Braverman, after he warned that migration would “overwhelm” European countries without firm action. In remarks that will further inflame the Tory row over migration that has been raging for weeks, the prime minister said that “enemies” were “deliberately driving people to our shores to try to destabilise our society”.
    Sunak made the comments at a festival in Rome organised by the far-right Brothers of Italy party, led by the Italian premier Giorgia Meloni. He said that both he and Meloni, with whom he has been forging a close relationship over hardline migration policies, were taking inspiration from Margaret Thatcher’s steadfast radicalism in their quest to do “whatever it takes” to “stop the boats”. “Criminal gangs find the ugliest ways to exploit our humanity and don’t have a problem with putting people’s lives at risk by putting them on boats,” he said. “If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries and our capacity to help those who actually need our help the most.”
    The prime minister also said changes to postwar asylum rules could be required to resolve the issue. “Because if we don’t fix this problem now, the boats will keep coming and more lives will be lost at sea,” he said. The comments will alarm moderate Tories already concerned at the hard line Sunak has adopted over migrants crossing the Channel.

    I heard those comments of Rishi Sunak before by some politicians in some country. What was that country?

  9. Oakeshott Country @ #352 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 3:53 pm

    Itza
    Point taken – hairs are standing on the back of my neck.
    I think stage presence is a part of it.
    In some of the rings I have enjoyed the Earth Mother has been more bag lady than goddess.

    (BTW if Wotan didn’t have the ring Fasolt would have had his way with Freia and without the Golden Apples they would have been dead within a week. This is what happens when the wife demands renovations.)

    Exactly. Exactly.

    That Adelaide Ring Erda arrived downstage iirc as a seated Female Buddha figure with one breast out? Earth Mother : Maternal; Nurturing; Knowledge; Wisdom; Peace.

  10. 423 runs ahead on a dangerous pitch. What is Cummins waiting for ..??

    No point risking injury to his batters. Declare NOW !!

  11. Vensays:
    Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 3:48 pm

    What goes around comes aroundsays:
    Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 11:51 am
    Vensays:
    BTW, why is a terrorist classified by Western countries is a terrorist but not when it comes to other terrorists or atleast treated with suspicion regarding that classification?
    Did western countries coin this phrase “terrorist of one country is a freedom fighter of another country?”
    ————————————————————————
    Are you claiming India’s actions here are justified?.
    Or are you just pointing out Western Governments have done bad things in past too. A fact we are all well aware of. For instance Nazi Germany did lots of bad things. Yet is still doesn’t justify others doing it.

    Are you claiming these Sikh separatist targeted are terrorists?.
    A terrorist is someone who uses violence or promotes the use of violence for their cause. Have you any evidence these targeted people had done that?. Or have they just spoken up and promoted the concept of having a Sikh homeland. An action in itself which is not terrorism.

    Though what really worries me is if the Indian Government is willing to assassinate people who just call for a Sikh homeland from where they live in foreign countries. What are doing to those that do it in India where there power is absolute?. Initially i was ambivalent over whether the Sikhs should have there own homeland or not. Now due to these actions of the current HIndu Nationalist Government. I believe the only way that Sikh people in India can be safe is in their own state. Safe from the Hindu Nationalists who seem to want to rule over them and control anything they say.

  12. Lessons could be learned from Australia. The Irish Government has announced a referendum to modernise and make more inclusive the section of the constitution dealing with the rights of families:

    The State, therefore, guarantees to protect the Family in its constitution and authority, as the necessary basis of social order and as indispensable to the welfare of the Nation and the State.
    In particular, the State recognises that by her life within the home, woman gives to the State a support without which the common good cannot be achieved.
    The State shall, therefore, endeavour to ensure that mothers shall not be obliged by economic necessity to engage in labour to the neglect of their duties in the home.
    The State pledges itself to guard with special care the institution of Marriage, on which the Family is founded, and to protect it against attack.

    BUT getting rid of motherhood statements may be harder than it looks and the terminally unpopular government is finding unexpected resistance.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorials/2023/12/15/the-irish-times-view-on-the-upcoming-referendums-uncertainty-lies-ahead/

  13. ItzaDreamsays:
    Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 4:13 pm
    What goes around comes around @ #350 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 3:45 pm

    Correct. And I stand corrected for failing to pick it up; more hurry less speed.
    —————————————————————————-
    Thanks, i would have had no problems with statement if it was worded a bit differently.
    Such as:
    “I just thought it was ‘interesting’ that none of the STC actors wore a Jewish flag draped over their shoulders. As citizens on both sides have suffered, after all.”

    Though note i left Jewish flag but i don’t really like it. It is actually the Israelii flag. Not all Jewish people support the state of Israel’s position in this conflict. The other side of this conflict is always referred to as place not a religion. I think the language should be neutral. So it is a place vs place, not a place vs a religion.

  14. I note the Australian and Aboriginal flag flying at the same equal height at Perth stadium. Good to see.

    Hope the SCG finally gets in on the act this year.

  15. C@t: “I just thought it was ‘interesting’ that none of the STC actors wore a Jewish flag draped over their shoulders.”

    Do you mean the Israeli flag?

    Or do religions have flags now?

  16. Re the actors wearing the keffiyeh scarves and the STC’s response.

    I feel sorry for the STC management. The situation is fraught with difficulty. They would certainly not want to be heavy-handed towards the actors involved (and, as far as I am aware, they haven’t been). But I think it is very much for the best for theatre companies, sporting bodies, private companies, schools, universities, etc. to insist that their employees do not make statements on political or other controversial issues while they are performing their duties on behalf of those organisations. On that basis, I think the ACB was also correct in suppressing Khawaja’s plan to wear shoes displaying a protest message about the ME situation.

    On this basis, I think that it was also a mistake for the STC to celebrate the SSM legislation or for the sporting bodies, QANTAS, etc. to campaign for a Yes vote in the Voice referendum. It is better for private organisations to keep away from politics. Otherwise, what is an organisation like the STC going to do when an actor wants to mount a pro-life protest or if a conductor chooses to follow in Barenboim’s footsteps but, instead of talking about Indigenous rights, wants to make a statement about how COVID vaccines are putting silicon chips inside our bodies or how flouride is draining the vital bodily essences out of people.

    Let the politicians do the politics. And let your employees publicly protest about whatever they want in their own time. But not at work.

  17. HH: “Usman Khawaja’s record against Pakistan: 1123 runs from 15 innings at an average of 93.58”

    Pakistan must be wondering why they ever let him go.

    And, yes, I know his parents brought him to Australia at the age of four. But it should have been obvious even then. 🙂

  18. We will now go trough a protracted period of misinformation & beat-up on Mineral Silica risk.

    Start here..
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/now-engineered-stone-is-banned-should-you-worry-if-it-s-in-your-home-20231215-p5erqc.html

    Generally the ban isn’t warranted, its teh processing of the material that is the problem not the artificial stone itself..

    Silica is one of the most common minerals in the earth’s crust.
    There would be zero free dust on the stone after it is washed, you’d get more exposure sitting on the beach than touching or using artificial stone bench.. of natural stone bench for that matter.. they also contain silica & are as dangerous as all hell when processed by the average idiot stone mason in Australia .. dry cutting concrete , cement bricks, sandstone… all are a problem.

    The Government has totally messed this up.. they should always have been talking about work practice..

  19. meher baba @ #330 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 5:04 pm

    Re the actors wearing the keffiyeh scarves and the STC’s response.

    I feel sorry for the STC management. The situation is fraught with difficulty. They would certainly not want to be heavy-handed towards the actors involved (and, as far as I am aware, they haven’t been). But I think it is very much for the best for theatre companies, sporting bodies, private companies, schools, universities, etc. to insist that their employees do not make statements on political or other controversial issues while they are performing their duties on behalf of those organisations. On that basis, I think the ACB was correct in suppressing Khawaja’s plan to wear shoes displaying a protest message about the ME situation.

    On this basis, I think that it was also a mistake for the STC to celebrate the SSM legislation or for the sporting bodies, QANTAS, etc. to campaign for a Yes vote in the Voice referendum. It is better for private organisations to keep away from politics. Otherwise, what is an organisation like the STC going to do when an actor wants to mount a pro-life protest or if a conductor chooses to follow in Barenboim’s footsteps but, instead of talking about Indigenous rights, wants to make a statement about how COVID vaccines are putting silicon chips inside our bodies or how flouride is draining the vital bodily essences out of people.

    Let the politicians do the politics. And let your employees publicly protest about whatever they want in their own time. But not at work.

    If the keffiyeh scarves were a Hamas specific item of clothing, I’d agree it would be offensive and should be banned. But they are not. They are simply a show of Palestinian resistance.

  20. Tens of thousands of pro-Palestine rally goers in Naarm and Eora again today.

    Good to see our Fed Govt finally listening to them.

  21. “While some of my actions in the past have shown poor judgement, I love my job and would never disrespect my workplace. Any attempts to characterize my actions otherwise are fabricated and I will be exploring what legal options are available to me in these matters.”

    — US Senate staffer Aidan Maese-Czeropski, sacked for allegedly having sex in the judiciary hearing room

    A litigious political staffer threatening legal action? Where have we heard that before?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/16/senate-staffer-fired-video-sex-judiciary-room

  22. Rex: “If the keffiyeh scarves were a Hamas specific item of clothing, I’d agree it would be offensive and should be banned. But they are not. They are simply a show of Palestinian resistance.”

    That seems to me to be a distinction without a difference. You might as well argue that the displaying of an Israeli flag is ok, but that a display of the Likud party symbol (whatever that is) is not.

  23. meher baba @ #336 Sunday, December 17th, 2023 – 5:31 pm

    Rex: “If the keffiyeh scarves were a Hamas specific item of clothing, I’d agree it would be offensive and should be banned. But they are not. They are simply a show of Palestinian resistance.”

    That seems to me to be a distinction without a difference. You might as well argue that the displaying of an Israeli flag is ok, but that a display of the Likud party symbol (whatever that is) is not.

    That is indeed my argument …and I’m right ..!

    I have no problem with non-violent peace-seeking Israeli’s.

  24. Holden Hillbilly
    “ A senior federal minister has expressed new caution about sending a warship to the Middle East to help the United States protect shipping lanes from attack, saying Australia would generally focus instead on its own region.
    Trade Minister Don Farrell said the Royal Australia Navy was focused on priorities such as the South China Sea and said the government was still considering the US request for help in the Red Sea to guard against rebels backed by Iran.
    But the Opposition is trying to intensify pressure on Labor to make a decision as soon as possible, although Liberal Party deputy leader Sussan Ley stopped short of calling on the government to commit to sending a Navy vessel.”
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/senior-federal-minister-expresses-new-caution-about-us-request-for-ships-in-red-sea-20231217-p5eryo.html

    I made a lengthy post on this at 10:46AM this morning. Thanks to a decade of non-procurement in naval shipbuilding, the Australia navy has difficulty responding to this request.

    Our navy only has three warships (the 3 Hobart class AWDs) that are suitably armed to do this king of mission. At any time one is in maintenance and one is on patrol.

    Even the very expensive and over schedule Hunter frigates are not as well armed as the Hobarts to defend themselves against multiple drone and SSM attacks.

    Australia badly needs to replace the Anzac frigates, cancel the Hunters and build more Hobarts immediately.

  25. When cricket matches are so one-sided, there’s little interest in them for me. Ditto the forthcoming ODI 3 of 3 (6/2); and, the T20 3 of 3 (13/2) -v- the WI. I dip my lid to Khawaja, who may have mixed feelings when playing against Pakistan. I mean, I’ve lived in Oz for 67 years, but still back the Poms when playing Oz.

  26. It seems that the worst of Cyclone Jasper wasn’t the immediate cyclone, but the widespread flooding in the aftermath.

    4-5 days after it hit, almost every river between Cooktown and Ingham is in flood, and conditions are terrible up there, with more heavy rain to come tomorrow, but predicted to ease up by Tuesday.

  27. All over. I get the feeling Pakistan may have thrown this match.

    Only 6,100 at the Perth stadium.

    Very disappointing outcome for test cricket.

  28. ‘Kirsdarke says:
    Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 7:40 pm

    It seems that the worst of Cyclone Jasper wasn’t the immediate cyclone, but the widespread flooding in the aftermath.’
    ———————
    Coastal flood plains flood. Again!

  29. Kirsdarke says:
    “It seems that the worst of Cyclone Jasper wasn’t the immediate cyclone, but the widespread flooding in the aftermath.”

    Indeed. Falls in the order of 500mm as Jasper passed over.

  30. “ So, is Marles lying or ignorant …?”

    https://twitter.com/MrRexPatrick/status/1736281364193001746

    At best he has been pretty careless. Marles is a lawyer and this legislation is in his portfolio. He should have known.

    If Australia is really going to do deep maintenance of US and UK SSNs in Australian ports as well as Australian SSNs, it is inevitable that some radiated material from the US and UK subs will need to be disposed of here.

    Personally I see no risk in this – if the work on US and UK subs is done here in appropriate facilities, to US standards, there is zero risk to the surrounding area.

    I also think the government should just come out and announce where the nuclear waste will be disposed of. In the right place it will actually benefit the local economy of whichever rural town it is near. The fear of it is irrational.

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