Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, Coalition 37, Greens 13 in Victoria

A poll conducted partly before the recent state budget and partly after gives Victorian Labor its worst result in many a long year.

The Age yesterday reported the bi-monthly Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic, compiled from responses from the pollster’s last two national polls, showing a pronounced decline in the standing of the third-term Labor government. Its primary vote was down five points on the February-March poll to 28%, with the Coalition up two to 37% and the Greens steady on 13%. Much of the Labor decline was absorbed by a generic “independent” category, which bounces four points to 16%, though many of those choosing it may find themselves lacking a viable independent option at an actual election. The “others” category is down a point to 6%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, and an independent score around triple that recorded in 2022 makes applying preference flows from the last election a dubious endeavour. Nonetheless, I would conservatively suggest that these numbers point to a 52-48 lead for the Coalition.

A preferred premier question finds Jacinta Allan with a lead over a seemingly beleaguered John Pesutto of 31-26, in from 34-25 last time. The poll combines 555 responses from April 17 to 21 with 550 from May 15 to 19 – those in the latter group were asked further questions about the state budget, which was brought down on May 7. Twenty-six per cent of these respondents rated that Tim Pallas was doing a good job as Treasurer compared with 38% for poor. Following a question that explained the scale of the government’s net debt, 60% expressed a preference for reducing debt by cutting spending compared with 7% for doing so by raising taxes and 14% for maintaining the current trajectory. Fifty-two per cent rated that the budget had broken promises compared with 32% for the alternative that its measures represented “practical change to suit the times and financial position”, though the question related facts that would have inclined the neutral observer to the former point of view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

17 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, Coalition 37, Greens 13 in Victoria”

  1. This is great news for the religious nutbags that populate the Liberal party here in Vic.
    They are playing the long game. No party remains in power forever. Eventually the party in power looses the election (because oppositions rarely win) and the sheeple vote for the other mainstream party.
    Look out for mini-Gilead here in Vic!!
    Unless of course the ‘others’ stage a surge and we have enough of them to give us a minority Govt.

  2. Labor are finally heading down the toilet in Vic , but I agree with the above, Pesutto needs to minimise the religious side of things and select no nut jobs as its a key turn off for important swinging voters.

  3. I love the commentary here about Pessuto.
    If the “nut jobs” completely ran the Victorian division of the liberal party, how did he end up as leader??
    Notwithstanding Credlin, bolt, Panihi, Flint et al, John has demonstrated incredible resilience. Underestimated by everyone….

  4. Nut jobs do completely run the Victorian division, however they’ve got enough of a clue to realise that looking like nut jobs is electoral poison and therefore they nominated someone with more popular appeal to be their front person, exactly the same as the federal Libs did with Malcolm Turnbull.

  5. There just hasn’t been a 7% swing against the government. Not buying it. I would pay more attention if it was Newspoll.

    The election is 2 and a half years away, and when push comes to shove disenfranchised progressive voters are not going to vote for the South Gilead Party. I would suggest people sick of traffic and transport inconvenience are parking their vote one out and one back.

    Note: I vote Green – not ALP.

    Meanwhile the ALP are gone in the NT and Queensland. Albo is not going to the polls anytime soon.

  6. I suspect this poll is a rogue one. Even if it’s correct the next election in Victoria isn’t until November 2026. What has changed for the Liberals, how have they somehow become electable.

  7. While the Victorian budget was something of a shocker (at least according to the all-hostile media), it’s probably one meant to dump all the bad news early, hence the polling.

    There’s still time to change course for the 2025 and 2026 budgets though, but Victorian Labor need to lift their game if they don’t want a repeat of the fall of the Brumby government in 2010.

    I’ve noticed the Liberals have somewhat calmed down from all their Moira Deeming mess compared to before so that could be another reason.

  8. The Moira deeming mess is about to leap back on to the front pages.

    The trial is about to begin.

  9. Even with Daniel Andrews gone, its still hard for Jacinta Allen to step out of his shadow, probably a lot of Victorians dont even know her name yet.

    That will change, economy will stabilise, she will have a chance to set her own policy direction, a long way to go.

  10. A big drop in PV isn’t good for Labor, but I don’t think you can make many assumptions about the 16% “independent” option, which is where the Labor PV has leaked to.

    Still no signs that 2022 Labor voters are shifting to the Libs at a large scale.

  11. It would be interesting to see an official breakdown by Legislative Council region for this poll.

  12. I think Allan’s in deep trouble, and that she was as unwise a choice a replacement leader as Steven Miles in Queensland.

    The Budget cuts have been so severe that they’re the kind of thing we’d expect under a hard-right Liberal government. She’s abandoned the only bits there was left of Andrews’ social reform agenda. She’s made the bizarre decision to try to buddy up with crossbenchers that hate Labor, absolutely screwed over the two crossbench parties (AJP and LC, LC Victoria effectively picking up where Reason left off) who were previously loyal Labor crossbench votes on key policy matters, and I understand has refused to even meet with LC. The Budget having a selling point of a minor measure laser-targeted at families with primary school aged kids was something Andrews would have never thought was a winner.

    Allan is erasing all of the points of difference that made Andrews so untouchable, and making the LNP seem far less dangerous by comparison. For example, it’s a bit hard to claim that the LNP would come in with a scorched-earth Budget when Labor just did exactly that.

    Combined with the LNP starting to find some discipline again after years of internal chaos, it really bodes ill for the 2026 election. I think there’s a lot of questions to be asked about what’s going on with the LNP’s new-found internal discipline and what that means, but if it holds I think Labor will lose. I also think said new-found discipline might well make Labor’s nightmare scenario a possibility: if Pesutto and Battin were to stand aside for Groth, I can see Labor losing in a landslide. But a Battin leadership might well save Allan if it comes to pass – he’s the one LNP leader too goofy and undisciplined to be able to take advantage.

    I’ve said it before, but Jill Hennessy’s retirement stuffed Labor – she had the political skills and the courage to continue Andrews’ legacy and I’m certain she would’ve won in 2026 if she’d stayed and succeeded Andrews. Equally, if they couldn’t have leaned on Hennessy to stay, they should’ve leaned on Merlino to stay and given him the leadership, despite the factional differences. Merlino would’ve likely made similar decisions to Allan, but had an ability to at least put a human face on difficult news in a way that Allan just completely lacks.

  13. Algernon: The LNP have spent the last couple of years publicly tearing themselves apart – and they’ve very conspicuously stopped, or at least had an internal ceasefire, in the last 2-3 months.

    I haven’t seen a lot of analysis as to exactly what’s going on, but it’s meant that they’ve stopped harming themselves and allowed the focus to be on Allan at a time when she’s not winning any friends with her decisions.

    The elephant in the room there is the Deeming mess, which as someone noted above, is about to kick off again in earnest in the next few months. I don’t understand how Pesutto’s decision to settle the other two cases squares with having a defence in the Deeming case (given it seems to hang on the truth of his comments about the other two, who he just apologised to), so who knows what the heck is going on there.

  14. Coalition will win next state election if Labor keeps focusing on families in the next 2 budgets and ignores mental health, childless young-people and ease rent pressures.

  15. Hate to say it, but I think Vic Labor has jumped the shark with the ‘Secretary for Men’s behaviour’.

    Fair to focus on the small minority of men that are the problem, good to make it an issue and show solidarity to victims. But implying men generally are the problem is sexist and goes against what the party should stand for.

    Violence is a problem as old as time that governments have always needed to try and stop, it’s likely flared due to financial presure and other reasons this new position can’t do anything about.

    Labor is giving Liberals a free kick when they need to consolidate with their new leader. They are giving away their strength of being a representing party and driving men away.

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