Resolve Strategic: Labor 26, LNP 43, Greens 13 in Queensland

Yet another data point suggesting the end is nigh for Queensland’s nine-year-old Labor government.

The Brisbane Times brings yet more grim polling news for Queensland’s state Labor government, with Resolve Strategic compiling 947 responses from the state across its monthly national polling from February through to May. This finds Labor’s primary vote at just 26%, down seven points since the exercise was last conducted during Annastacia Palaszczuk’s final months as Premier from September through to December, with the Liberal National Party up six to 43%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation steady on 8%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, but this can be estimated at about 56-44 in favour of the LNP, or a 9% swing from the 2020 election result.

When respondents were asked to express positive, neutral or negative views of the two leaders, Steven Miles had 15% more rating him negative than positive, compared with 17% for Palaszczuk’s last result while David Crisafulli had 14% more positive than negative, up five from last time. Crisafulli leads miles 39-28 as preferred premier, which compares with his 39-34 lead over Palaszczuk.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

34 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 26, LNP 43, Greens 13 in Queensland”

  1. Definitely shocking polling for the ALP , hard to see the reason behind it other than the it’s time factor. Crime seems to be the major issue but the stats seem pretty contestable. Qld economy pretty good and the fact we have record numbers settling here would hardly indicate a basket case. The other thing is that because the ALP were wiped out in 2012 means they renewed to their team in 2015. The LNP has not renewed themselves from the benighted days of 12 to 15. Barring a couple of heavyweights who have left (Seeney & the Borg) they are all still in there on the public purse. I just hope that someone is able to get some policies out of them before they hit the tarmac – how many public servants to be sacked, which services cut, what assets sold, will the royalties that pay for electricity subsidies be cut, what reforms will be wound back, how will they stop crime, how will the environmental issues like land clearing be handled . Plenty of questions to be answered and we have a media up here ( murdochracy) not interested in asking them. In fact our media acts as an LNP cheer squad.

  2. Gawd. I keep waiting for this to start narrowing again and instead it keeps getting worse.
    I’m someone who has plenty of problems with the Palaszczuk and Miles governments, but not to THIS degree. I never felt it was lke with Bligh where there were a bunch of monumental stuff-ups to point to. So frustrating that so many think the LNP would do better.

  3. Pied Piper.says: Wednesday, May 22, 2024 at 7:45 am, “Too late in Qld to remove leader”

    No, the problem is that they did change leader, and by doing so have gone from a likely small to medium loss, to a certain landslide loss.

  4. Spot-on comment Prince P
    The media here in Qld won’t ask the necessary questions of the LNP- such as the ones you’ve mentioned.
    We will only find out when we hear the usual comments from an incoming government about how bad the finances really are and therefore they’ve got to make hard decisions such as sacking/ retrenching/ reducing PS numbers.
    As an example, watch how the new National Party government in New Zealand is already hoeing into the PS there and how unemployment is set to shoot up to 5%+.
    If that’s not bad enough, I fear for the environment, for environmental regulation and attempts to wind back progressive environmental and social progress.
    Your point about the old National Party mindset exemplified by its current Parliamentary members is absolutely valid. An LNP government will be nothing but a breath of stale air.
    One can only hope that any LNP government has a narrow majority, if at all and Labors path to reelection will not be difficult.
    Meanwhile, a Federal Labor government may be able to rein in any decisions requiring Federal OK that an LNP government tries to pull on. Here’s hoping.

  5. The Campbell Newman QLD government of 2012-15 is no more relevant to contemporary politics than the Julia Gillard Commonwealth government of 2010-13.

  6. The LNP are in a position whereby they don’t have to answer any questions.

    Based on their performance at the last QLD election, the worst thing they could do for themselves would be to start sharing their ideas. Apart from their commitment to repeal the ‘truth telling’ legislation, which will doubtlessly be very popular.

  7. State threads are always more interesting than the open thread….

    @joeldipobs – and others – you make interesting points.

    Conservatives around the world, for the last 20 years, have taken the easy path: whinge non stop and make governing impossible. What they have failed to acknowledge is that having destroyed people’s faith in government they will struggle to win it back. The QLD LNP are going to find it impossible to govern. They are lucky rather have the Murdoch racy pledging blind fealty, but who reads newspapers. That horse has not only bolted, it is dead, buried and cremated.

    The only policy we hear from the neocons is CRIME. Not what they will do about it.

    The state ALP is gone in QLD, but the LNP is not the answer.

  8. Gettysburg1863says: Wednesday, May 22, 2024 at 9:07 am

    “Meanwhile, a Federal Labor government may be able to rein in any decisions requiring Federal OK that an LNP government tries to pull on. Here’s hoping.”

    If you wanted to once again have only one senator elected from QLD at a Commonwealth election, and be reduced to no more than three 3 HOR seats (goodbye Blair) that would be an excellent way to start going about it.

  9. @madhouse – that is the problem. The LNP have only two policies: slash spending (public service and infrastructure) and ramp up racist rhetoric. The result is life gets harder and nastier, which they think will lead to improving their vote.

    The poll however clearly shows a drop in support for the state government, basically to rock bottom or the base vote for the ALP. The LNP nonetheless is only on 43%. Given the mass media coverage you would think they were on 90%.

    The ALP will lose (no shit Sherlock) but the LNP will come a cropper pretty quickly. Palaszczuk won a majority from just 8 seats. The LNP are excellent at opposition but dreadful at government. Meanwhile the alp are good at governing but terrible at modern politics. Ideas are dead in Australia. (Just ask Bill Shorten).

  10. It comes back to two main points: 1. Time for a change mood in Qld, 2. Steven Miles was the wrong choice to replace Anastacia, he only got there because of the union heavies who control the dominant left faction up there. Shannon Fentimen might have done a better job, Cameron Dick certainly would have done a better job but alas he’s on the right and they don’t run the factional ship in Qld Labor.
    And yes, the media in Brisbane is hopeless pro LNP, but it’s been ever thus for a long time, and the previous Premier was still able to win 4 straight elections, so I don’t think you can blame the Courier Mail for Qld state Labor’s current woes.
    No wonder Albo doesn’t want a federal election until May 2025, he and Chalmers and the brains trust are no doubt hoping Qld voters use their baseball bats on Miles and his government, and then hopefully next May, the bile against Labor in Qld won’t be as bad for the federal vote, ideally he’d probably love to pick up a seat like Leichhardt, because Warren Entz is retiring.

  11. I think with respect to Fargo, if the LNP refuses to answer questions about their plans it can be assumed their agenda will be a continuation of the Cando agenda circa 2012 to 15.In 2015 Cando Newman and his man in the NQ Mr Crisifulli both lost their seats, Mr Crisifulli skidaddled down to the “Goldy” to find a happy place in solid LNP heartland. If Miles does not manage to make this not very distant past record of debacle and real not confected chaos an issue and get some details out and about regarding the LNPs plan he will deserve to lose in a landslide.

  12. Something that could be a long term matter is if that Greens vote is accurate. If it is, they’re on track to hold at least 6 seats (namely Maiwar and South Brisbane which they currently hold, and also likely flipping McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes and Miller)

    If Labor were to get a swing back to them in the election afterward, that may mean a minority government relying on those Greens, and outside of Brisbane that is a very unpopular notion.

  13. Amazing how leaders determine results. Yep to late to get rid of Miles, after election if she holds her seat Sharon Feltman may be leader or perhaps Dick.. In Victoria their is no one else other than Jactina Allan, and she is not leader.. the only possible person i think of is Jaclyn Symes but she is the upper house… Ben Carroll will be no better than Jacinta Allan. They should have scrapped the rail project because now it makes it much easier for Libs to be elected.

  14. No idea who Sharon Feltman is, but Shannon Fentiman is a possibility, after the election. Cameron Dick is serious and seems competent, but seems to lack that ‘something’ (charisma?) that may resonate with voters. (purely my personal opinion).

    Of Course Ms Fentiman would have to learn to keep her legs shut, apparently.
    “Opposition MP Ros Bates has caused outrage after yelling “cross your legs” across state parliament while Health Minister Shannon Fentiman was responding to a question about cancelled maternity services.”

    And I thought that the NSW parliament had the ‘Bearpit’.

  15. Will, Please make a new post updating the readers on the latest Victoria poll showing a possible 50-50 result (post-victoria budget)

    Libs 37%
    ALP 28%
    Greens 13%
    Ind 16%
    Others 6%

    The poll is on The Age

  16. Davidwh: thanks for the link to Mr Crisifulli’s ” detailed” policies. Definitely high on complaining and low on detail. Very sad to see the man whose wife died before getting treated but with the greatest respect many of the issues outlined could have easily happened in any state under any government and I predict similar things will happen under the LNP should they win. One area of extreme vagueness was the innovative solutions that will solve the problems so manifest in health ( at least according to the LNP) funny enough I remember our doctors threatening a mass walkout during candoes time and one of his members became so disgusted he quit the government and tried to join the ALP, was that an example of the innovative practices we can look forward to? You can also tick off the guy annoyed about electricity bills as the government is now subsidising them by as much as a thousand per year. We are in for a rough ride I reckon.

  17. @ Daniel T. The next Victorian Election is 2.5 years away. A single poll this far out is nothing more than noise and largely irrelevant.

    In Queensland on the other hand….

  18. @ Daniel T – there are many reasons not to get too excited about that poll. First and foremost it isn’t 50/50. Secondly, the Lib vote cited is in fact the Liberals and the National combined. The lib vote is no better than labor’s vote. I get 52.5/47.5 on those numbers -in favour of the red team. That’s not getting the libs the extra 17 seats they need to wrest government. Neither is 50/50.

    As for cancelling the rail line Iine Crispy Wedges – I’d just like to point out that the ALP won every seat along that line, some of which they hadn’t held for decades. The Libs hate it, but it is a vote winner.

    Expect to hear more of the hung parliament diatribe we get from the mSM all the time down here in Mexico. And yet the ALP have won 10 of the last 13 elections.

    There’s a bit of water to go under the Princes Bridge yet! 2 and a half years worth.

    In Queensland however….

  19. “Conservatives around the world, for the last 20 years, have taken the easy path: whinge non stop and make governing impossible.”

    Given that you could substitute ‘Conservatives’ with ‘Labor/Labour parties’ (very evident here in the UK, no real policies from Labour, just that they will keep all the Tories’ pretty much even though the last few years have been diabolical apparently!), I think you really mean

    “Opposition parties around the world, for the last 20 years, have taken the easy path: whinge non stop and make governing impossible.”

    There’s not much acknowledgement of consensus these days, even where it actually exists. But lots of hyperbole.

  20. When life is tough it’s normal to blame anyone and everyone. Labor is the target at present and will struggle this October. Responsible for everything wrong in the world. Unfortunately, L/NP won’t be the answer with the same personal as last time.
    Health Minister was a disaster. Attorney General appointed a Chief Justice who had to quit because every judge in the State would not talk to him. Govt buildings were flogged off at below valuation and paying off the new 1 William Street will take forever.
    Biggest problem could come in the area of electricity. Labor spending $16 billion this term on renewables. L/NP favours coal at $140 per ton while Dutton is babbling about his nuclear reactors.
    Have not heard any of the L/NP policies, just the usual everything is wrong and we’ll fix it.

  21. Mr Ed: just reading a story in the BT about the inimitable Ros Bates, one of the many Cando era faces set to return in Oct to begin four long years in power. The next 5 months will be like watching a car crash approaching and not be able to do anything about it.

  22. If the LNP can’t win easily here now in QLD, the whole right side of politics may as well shut down. With NT coming up as well that could be two shifts to the right, the ACT may be a significantly harder task.

  23. Just blows my mind people can see the gigantic incompetence from every level of the Liberal Party in every state and federally, and go “yeah, let’s have them back in again”.

    To do what? Sell everything left not nailed down? To hand over billions to the insatiable greed of Clive Palmer & Gina Reinhart?

    This country could have a trillion dollars in state & federal resource tax accounts, instead we have nothing to show for it but inflation, a housing crisis and increasingly poverty.

  24. Bob : we are a strange lot ,we will die in a ditch to ensure mining companies don’t pay very high taxes but will vote the mob out who tries to help those struggling. The Qld government actually installed a fair mining royalties on super profits at state level they used this to help people with cost of living relief and look at the above poll to see how that has been rewarded.

  25. Michael : looks like an easy win in Qld for LNP. ACT will be harder due to higher percentage of public servants. Public servants know voting Liberal would be like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders

  26. they used this to help people with cost of living relief and look at the above poll to see how that has been rewarded. ???

    My $175.00 power rebate per four quarters, to vote Liberal you would have to be brain addled !

  27. @Mr Ed
    Govt buildings were flogged off at below valuation and paying off the new 1 William Street will take forever.

    Are you sure?
    Wasn’t the ‘Tower of Power’ developed by the CBUS Super Fund, the deal with Newman was the State Government promised to rent the entire building for 15 years?
    Speculation in the C-M that Palaszczuk would do an Andrews and renege, [the 1967 Executive Building was yet to be demolished, from memory. Edit: memory wrong, see link] but they moved in.
    Viewed from the Norman Park Railway Station, the building resembles a circumcised willie topped by an icicle.
    Purely coincidental, I’m sure.,_Brisbane

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