Category: Victorian Politics

With almost exactly a year to go until the next election, the Victorian Liberal Party has had its second leadership change in a little under a year, with Brad Battin deposed by Jess Wilson. Wilson came to parliament at the 2022 election as member for Kew, and was elevated to Shadow Treasurer in what proved to be a problematic reshuffle for Battin last month. The Age reports the motion to declare the leadership positions vacant was carried 19 votes to 13, after which Wilson was elected unopposed. The deputy leader, Sam Groth, retained his position against challenger David Southwick by 17 votes to 15, while Bev McArthur deposed David Davis as upper house leader by 19 votes to 13.

Too late to do Battin any good, the Herald Sun today reports a Freshwater Strategy poll, conducted Friday to Monday from a sample of 1217, showed Battin was a plus 15 net favourability rating compared with minus 28 for Jacinta Allan, and a 45-31 lead as preferred premier (the same poll apparently had Anthony Albanese at minus two and Sussan Ley at minus three, the latter of which would seem at odds with other recent polling). Jess Wilson was at plus seven, with an undisclosed but unsurprisingly large result for uncommitted. Voting intention nonetheless showed the Coalition with a modest 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Coalition 37% and Labor 30%. Sixty per cent felt the government was doing a bad job, with only 26% opting for good.

DemosAU has a Victorian state poll that has the Coalition leading 51-49, unchanged on the last such poll in early September. Labor is steady on 26% of the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 37% and the Greens steady on 15%. Brad Battin leads Jacinta Allan 40-32 on preferred premier, out from 37-32. Also featured is an upper house voting intention question which has Labor on 21%, the Coalition on 30%, the Greens on 14% and One Nation on 11%. The poll was conducted October 21 to 27 from a sample of 1016; demographic breakdowns are featured in the accompanying report.

Some recent Labor preselection news, details of which are drawn from the Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column and Benita Kolovos of The Guardian:

• Natalie Hutchins, Government Services Minister and member for Sydenham, announced last fortnight she would not contest the next election. Backroom Baz reports the leading preselection candidate is Uros Rasic, political officer with the Australian Workers Union and former staffer to Hutchins.

• Benita Kolovos reports three candidates for Labor preselection in Bayswater, to be vacated with the retirement of Jackson Taylor: Pamela Anderson, chief executive of Emily’s List Australia; Julie Buxton, policy adviser at Emergency Recovery Victoria; and Sorina Grasso, a former Knox councillor.

• Backroom Baz relates that Rachel Halse, Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation organiser and wife of former member Dustin Halse, is the “clear frontrunner” for Labor preselection in Ringwood, whose member Will Fowles has parted company with the party after a troubled term. Benita Kolovos of The Guardian identifies two further candidates in Nildhara Gadani and Mannie Verma.

• Also from Backroom Baz: Cardinia Shire mayor Jack Kowarzik is “odds-on favourite” to succeed Emma Vulin as Labor’s candidate in Pakenham, and Broden Borg, assistant principal at Caulfield Junior College and former Melton councillor, “looks set” to succeed Steve McGhie in Melton.

The Age reports the bi-monthly reading of state voting intention in Victoria from Resolve Strategic has Labor down two points to 30%, the Coalition steady at 33% and the Greens steady at 12%. Despite the accompanying report’s prognostications of doom for the Liberal Party, this in fact points to a tight result on two-party preferred, though a great deal would depend on the composition and preference flows of an imposing 25% vote for other parties and independents. Brad Battin’s lead over Jacinta Allan as preferred premier has narrowed from 32-24 to 33-27.

Further questions relate to “personal safety and trust in law”, with 53% reporting they feel safe walking around their local area with 28% disagreeing, 63% reporting feeling safe in their own home and 24% disagreeing, but only 31% expressing faith in courts and the justice system with 50% disagreeing. The poll combines the Victorian results from the last two national Resolve Strategic monthly surveys.

UPDATE: Saturday’s Financial Review has a further finding from RedBridge Group that Labor leads 52-48, unchanged from the previous result in September, from primary votes of Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one) and Greens 13% (steady). The accompanying paywalled report has breakdowns by generation, region and gender. The poll was conducted October 8 to 14 from a sample of 1501.

Developments relevant to the election to be held in November next year:

• Alex White of the Herald Sun today reports that Amelia Hamer, who was narrowly unsuccessful in her bid to recover Kooyong for the Liberals from teal independent Monique Ryan at the May federal election, will seek preselection in Malvern. The incumbent, former party leader Michael O’Brien, announced in September that he would retire at the election. The report says the preselection will also be contested by Jacqueline Blackwell, chair of the Liberal Women’s Council, but makes no mention of commercial litigator and barrister Lana Collaris, whom The Age reported had confirmed her intention to run last month.

• Chip Le Grand of The Age reports local lawyer Grant Hutchinson has emerged as the “leading conservative candidate” for the Liberal preselection in Croydon, where sitting member David Hodgett announced his retirement in August. In Rowville, which will be vacated with the retirement of Kim Wells, the “early front-runner” is said to be Irene Ling, a fundraiser for Southern Cross Kids Camps, who has the support of conservative former federal Deakin MP Michael Sukkar. However, Tahnee Wells, 28-year-old project co-ordinator at the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and daughter of Kim Wells, is a “potential wildcard”.

• Two Labor retirement announces a fortnight ago: Emma Vulin, who was diagnosed with motor neurone disease in 2024, in Pakenham; and Jordan Crugnale, who since 2018 has had a precarious hold on the seat of Bass.

• Anthony Galloway of The Australian reported last week the Liberals were considering given the Nationals a clear run against Jacinta Allan in her seat of Bendigo East, which would make sense given the Nationals’ remarkable near-success in the federal seat of Bendigo at the May federal election.

• The Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column notes that no incumbent Liberals face preselection challenges, positing that “perhaps the new $5000 fee to nominate proved a hurdle too high for some”.

The Herald Sun reports a RedBridge Group poll of state voting intention in Victoria has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, out from 51.5-48.5 at the last such poll in July, from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 37% and Greens 13% – in each case down a point on last time. The poll was conducted September 3 to 11 from a sample of 2005 – Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group relates further breakdowns via X.

Further Victorian electoral news:

• The Age reports Labor sources saying it is “increasingly likely” the government will move to abolish group voting tickets for the Legislative Council early next year, the state being the last holdout for a system that once prevailed in the Senate and all state upper houses. Most recently, a new system for the Western Australian Legislative Council took effect at the election in March which also abolished the previously existing system of six six-member regions, similar to Victoria’s system of eight five-member regions. The election of the entire chamber at large meant a low quota for election that allowed Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice to win seats: tellingly, the Victorian branches of these parties “support the abolition of group voting tickets only if accompanied by a bigger reform like replacing the eight regions with a single statewide electorate”.

• Former Liberal leader Michael O’Brien announced a fortnight ago that he will retire at the next election, creating a vacancy in his historically safe seat of Malvern. Rachel Eddie of The Age reports those named as possible successors include Jacquie Blackwell, chair of the state party’s women’s council, and an ally of the locally influential Josh Frydenberg; Amelia Hamer, the stock market analyst who ran unsuccessfully against Monique Ryan in Kooyong at the May federal election; Holly Byrne, a local business owner; Josh Fast, a “former corporate lawyer who now runs an education business” and Marcus Pearl, a former Port Phillip councillor.

• Shannon Deery of the Herald Sun reports the parliament’s longest serving current member, former Treasurer Kim Wells, has told Liberal colleagues he will retire at the next election, creating a preselection vacancy in his outer eastern Melbourne seat of Rowville. Another recently announced Liberal retiree is Croydon MP David Hodgett.

• The Australian reports Western Victoria region MLC Gayle Tierney has rejected suggestions she will retire at the next election, an eventuality that some in the party were pointing to as a potential lifeline for Dylan Wight should he face a preselection challenge in Tarneit. That possibility was in turn raised when the party’s national executive lifted a seven-year ban on Indian community powerbroker Jasvinder Sidhu from contesting preselections, imposed in 2020 after a party investigation alleged he had “engaged in branch-stacking and stoked ethnic resentment”. All concerned are members of the Socialist Left.

The Age reports on the first Resolve Strategic Victorian state poll since March, resuming the pollster’s practice of alternating between bi-monthly New South Wales and Victorian state polls from samples of 1000 that combine the relevant sub-samples from two of its monthly national polls. The results show a remarkable recovery in Labor’s fortunes, in common with Newspoll and RedBridge Group polls from July. Labor’s primary vote is up eight points from May to 32%, with the Coalition down by the same amount to 33% and the Greens down two to 12%. The size of the remainder, which consists of 9% independents and 13% others, makes two-party preferred hard to estimate, but it could be conservatively put at 53-47 in Labor’s favour. The change in preferred premier is relatively modest, Brad Battin maintaining a lead of 32-25 over Jacinta Allan, in from 36-23.

Two new Victorian state polls suggest Labor has re-established its dominance in the state, despite the evident handicap of Jacinta Allan’s unpopularity. Newspoll in The Australian has Labor leading the Coalition 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 35% and Greens 12%, compared with 2022 election results of Labor 37.0%, Coalition 34.4% and Greens 11.5% and 55.0-45.0 to Labor on two-party preferred. However, Allan records dire personal ratings of 30% approval and 61% disapproval compared with 35% and 40% for Liberal leader Brad Battin, who leads 41-36 as preferred premier. A question on confidence in the Coalition’s readiness to govern breaks 60-40 against. The poll was conducted June 23 to 30 from a sample size to be advised. While there have been numerous Victorian state polls since the last election, I believe this is the first from Newspoll.

The Herald-Sun reports a RedBridge Group poll crediting Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, reversing a 51-49 deficit in the last such poll in April. Labor is up four on the primary vote 33%, with the Coalition down three to 38% and the Greens up one to 14%. Twenty-seven per cent say the Allan government has the right focus and priorities, with 55% holding a contrary view, while 26% think the Coalition deserves to win the next election, 45% holding otherwise. The poll was conducted June 19 to 30 from a sample of 1183.

UPDATE (8/7): The Australian has further results from Newspoll, finding 59% support for the Suburban Rail Loop with 32% opposed, and asking if respondents were “worried” or “confident” in four different policy areas: state debt (78% worried, 13% confident), law and order (76% worried, 20% confident), hospitals (71% worried, 25% confident) and housing (78% worried, 16% confident).