The fortnightly Essential Research poll gives Labor its best result on voting intention in two months, their primary vote up two to 33%, the Coalition steady on 32%, the Greens up one to 14% and One Nation down two to 6%, with the undecided component down one to 5%. Their lead on the 2PP+ measure is out from 49-45 to 50-45. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1125.
Also featured are questions on COVID-19, including a finding that 52% consider Australia well prepared for future pandemics compared with 38% for not well prepared, and an unexpected foray on the “nature of reality”, which finds precisely equal proportions of Coalition, Labor and Greens voters alert to the fact that we are “living in a simulation”. The 301 Victorian respondents were asked to rate Daniel Andrews’ contribution to Victoria, with 37% opting for very good or quite good compared with 40% for very poor or quite poor.
Confessions says:
Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 8:41 pm
We can do this as well. It just may not happen this year.
At this rate it won’t happen in my lifetime.
____________
I would like to assure you that won’t be the case, but who knows?
Rockets fell into multiple cities and communities.
According to the Hagari, some 2,200 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. This included Tel Aviv, where initial reports by Israeli media said there was a direct hit to a home. Other cities where rockets fell included Rishon Lezion, Holon and Bat Yam. Sirens were also sounded in the West Bank, including Efrat.
How can a adversary in a neighbouring area accumulate 2,200 rockets? And be undetected
Ven says:
Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 7:44 pm
Watch: Hamas infiltrator uses motorized hang glider to enter Israel
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/video/watch-hamas-infiltrator-uses-motorized-hang-glider-to-enter-israel-2445780-2023-10-07
———————————————————————
And not the first time either.
On 25 November 1987, in which two Palestinian guerrillas infiltrated into Israel from South Lebanon using hang gliders to launch a surprise attack against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). While one was tracked down and killed by Israeli security forces before he could carry out an attack, another one managed to infiltrate an IDF base, killing six Israeli soldiers and wounding eight others before being shot dead.
Despite being subpoenaed to appear before the House select committee investigating the events of January 6, Jordan was a no show. Liz Cheney claimed he was up to his eyeballs in planning the attempted insurrection, in concert with his puppet master Trump. Now he’s being touted as the next House speaker. Only in America!
Video of Hamas drone hitting Israeli tank. Warfare has evolved extremely quickly, I’m sure our Colonel Blimps are on it.
https://t.me/noel_reports/3660
Israel air force bombing Hamas controlled Gaza. Will completely destroy the infrastructure, cause many deaths and put people into poverty and starvation. A huge loss for the Palestinians there.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1710592885798904219
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 8:46 pm
Rockets fell into multiple cities and communities.
According to the Hagari, some 2,200 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. This included Tel Aviv, where initial reports by Israeli media said there was a direct hit to a home. Other cities where rockets fell included Rishon Lezion, Holon and Bat Yam. Sirens were also sounded in the West Bank, including Efrat.
How can a adversary in a neighbouring area accumulate 2,200 rockets?
____________
Hezbollah has an estimate of more than 100k.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 8:46 pm
Rockets fell into multiple cities and communities.
According to the Hagari, some 2,200 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. This included Tel Aviv, where initial reports by Israeli media said there was a direct hit to a home. Other cities where rockets fell included Rishon Lezion, Holon and Bat Yam. Sirens were also sounded in the West Bank, including Efrat.
How can an adversary in a neighbouring area accumulate 2,200 rockets? And be undetected?
————————
My guess is through Egypt. Most corridors through Syria and Lebanon have been blocked by Israel over the past twenty years. Egypt has a border with the Gaza Strip and despite Israel’s best attempts, this route has never been properly secured.
In addition, the Palestinians have become great tunnellers over the decades and highly adept at smuggling though it’s fair to say that the scale of this attack very significant. Israel used to have very significant listening technology and humint and would often identify tunnels well before they reached Israeli territory so something must’ve gone terribly amiss. And as for bulldozers pulling up to and through border fences, I’m beyond bemused.
Oh cripes, that’s some shocking footage. Israeli Merkava tanks are no easy things to destroy. That Hamas are doing this seems to show that they are really serious about this attack.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 8:54 pm
Video of Hamas drone hitting Israeli tank. Warfare has evolved extremely quickly, I’m sure our Colonel Blimps are on it.
https://t.me/noel_reports/3660
—————-
It was inevitable and where there’s one there’s likely many more.
Also pondering if the LNP wins the next Queensland election if they’ll lobby to change the name of the district of Oodgeroo, seeing as they didn’t very much like that name in the redistribution that made it come about.
https://www.redlandcitybulletin.com.au/story/4567763/lnp-objects-to-oodgeroo-electorate/
Griff says:
Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 8:57 pm
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 8:46 pm
Rockets fell into multiple cities and communities.
According to the Hagari, some 2,200 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. This included Tel Aviv, where initial reports by Israeli media said there was a direct hit to a home. Other cities where rockets fell included Rishon Lezion, Holon and Bat Yam. Sirens were also sounded in the West Bank, including Efrat.
How can a adversary in a neighbouring area accumulate 2,200 rockets?
____________
Hezbollah has an estimate of more than 100k.
————————-
We used to undertake armed foot patrols with UNIFIL and UNDOF troops in the mountains bordering Lebanon and Syria in an attempt to prevent the smuggling of arms and rockets from Iran through Syria to Lebanon. I can confirm just by the sheer number of Katyusha rockets stocked and fired by Hezbollah that our success rate was limited. I suspect the situation is far worse now given the porosity of Syria’s borders.
sprocket_says:
Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 8:54 pm
Video of Hamas drone hitting Israeli tank. Warfare has evolved extremely quickly, I’m sure our Colonel Blimps are on it.
https://t.me/noel_reports/3660
—————
And that drone seems to then fly away unscathed.
What we know so far (the Guardian)
– Hamas militants entered Israeli territory in the early hours of this morning, appearing to take control of multiple communities in southern Israel.
– Fighting is still ongoing in areas of southern Israel.
– Hamas fired over 2,000 rockets toward Israel, according to the Israeli authorities.
– The death toll is Israel is at least 22, according to Israeli emergency services.
– Israel’s health ministry said at least 545 wounded have arrived in hospitals.
– Palestinian media is reporting the death toll in Gaza is 4.
– Israel launched strikes in Gaza.
– There are reports of Israeli hostages now in Gaza.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/oct/07/hamas-launches-attack-on-israel-with-5000-rockets-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-65211f6d8f08584119dd1b76#block-65211f6d8f08584119dd1b76
The Israeli military is in the process of evacuating its air bases as Gaza ‘s fighters draw near. The Palestinians are closing in on Israeli positions.
Cronus,
You speak of a failure of humint as far as detecting the tunneling of the Palestinians. Is it too much of a stretch to think that, post the resurrection of Netanyahu, that a faction of the Israeli military may have calculated that the only way to stop him was to allow this to happen? There will be tension between Netanyahu cracking down and the people rising up against him again, you would think. Especially if it all goes pear-shaped. Which is what some may have war-gamed.
Or have I watched too many Hollywood movies? 😀
Gaza being destroyed: https://twitter.com/i/status/1710603230361596131
You are watching too many Hollywood movies c@tmomma
Of course they didn’t.
–Holdenhillbilly @ #1169 Saturday, October 7th, 2023 – 8:32 pm
Looks like footage of a controlled demolition to me.
Trouble is no longer merely brewing across Israel – the top has blown right off the simmering pot:
“Unrest and violence is also being reported in Jerusalem, the eastern half of which is considered occupied Palestinian territory, as well as the West Bank.
Majd al Abassi, a resident of Silwan, a restive neighbourhood in East Jerusalem, said:
“There are young men marching with green flags, the flag of Hamas, after they heard the news this morning. The Israeli soldiers started firing tear gas everywhere and one house was burned.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/oct/07/hamas-launches-attack-on-israel-with-5000-rockets-live#top-of-blog
I think Hamas have obtained for themselves yet more hostages:
“Hamas said it captured Israeli soldiers near the Gaza border during its surprise attack Saturday morning. In videos published by the militant group, at least three men dressed in civilian clothing were seen held at gunpoint. Hamas said the men were Israeli soldiers. The Israel Defense Forces said it had no comment and CNN cannot verify Hamas’ claim.”
https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/index.html
What the Hell Just Happened?
No it not about
a) Ukraine war
b) Republican’ts implosion in US HOR
c) Israel – Hamas war
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/5/2197624/-What-the-Hell-Just-Happened?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Canada has had 6,400 wildfires since the beginning of 2023. -Mike Hudema
And Canada’s wildlife will struggle to come back from this season’s wildfire season – as will the forests themselves
Our climate is out of control. God knows what comes next.
Anyone who thinks net zero in almost 30 years time is in any way relevant to our current predicament is living in cloud-cuckoo land.
The planet is beginning to face storms that can literally wipe out civilisations. There’s no point in rebuilding if you’ll get the same in a matter of months. Nothing stays in the way of an incredibly pissed off Mother Nature
New York’s old rainfall record stood for 150 years until 2021, and has now been broken three times.
Confessionssays:
Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 5:24 pm
Just submitted my complaint to the AEC. I’ve asked them to give their staff the authority to have these abusive campaigners removed from the site, and to be more vigilant in monitoring their behaviour.
I suspect this is a portent of things to come in the final week and I can’t imagine what polling day will bring. I’d hate to see Australia having to go down the American route by putting police on site, but honestly, if people feel unsafe coming to a polling place because of the behaviour of the No campaigners, they might just have to.
================================================
Seriously?
While neither side has been immune, from my observations there has been far more aggression, abuse and inappropriate behaviour by yes campaigners than from the no side.
Perhaps it flows from their frustration and disappointment at their apparent failure to gain traction in their campaign. It really has been shameful.
E.g.w. Bullshit.
Examples? Sources?
@Steve777
I mean, don’t you just get it? Like for instance back in 2021 when all those innocent anti-vaxxer rioters were terrorized by all those evil drivers on the West Gate Bridge in Melbourne by their sinister plans to simply drive home to their families, they were forced to riot in protest of them doing that.
e.g.w. gaslighting Confessions’ lived experience today. Shameful.
Doesn’t provide any evidence to support his assertions about the ‘Yes’ campaigners either. Just a silly, back at ya, I’ve seen it too. Which we all know to be false because the ‘No’ campaigners would be onto anything like that in an instant, reporting it back to ‘No’ HQ and then onto the media. It’s how they roll.
So I call bullshit on the claims by e.g.w.
I find it hard to believe Israeli intelligence was caught off guard.
egw: ” inappropriate behaviour ”
An avalanche of lies, misinformation and dog whistling to racists is inappropriate behaviour, and it has been relentless. You just caĺl it abuse that it’s pointed out in order to paint yourself as a victim. Which is so on brand.
You stop propagating lies and misinformation, and dog whistling to racists, and I’ll stop calling you out on it. Deal? win-win.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 9:28 pm
Cronus,
You speak of a failure of humint as far as detecting the tunneling of the Palestinians. Is it too much of a stretch to think that, post the resurrection of Netanyahu, that a faction of the Israeli military may have calculated that the only way to stop him was to allow this to happen? There will be tension between Netanyahu cracking down and the people rising up against him again, you would think. Especially if it all goes pear-shaped. Which is what some may have war-gamed.
Or have I watched too many Hollywood movies?
————-
Hi C@T
And who doesn’t love a bit of conspiratorial thinking. 😆
I’m inclined to think however that this is more a screw up by Mossad and the IDF because intentionally allowing or abetting Hamas is probably a step too far for any Israeli under any circumstances.
”
Pisays:
Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 10:49 pm
egw: ” inappropriate behaviour ”
”
This is inappropriate behaviour with someone with initials egw.
3 powerful earthquakes hit Afghanistan in 30 minutes
Three earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.2, 6.1 and 5.9 struck within half the western part of Afghanistan on Saturday.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/earthquake-of-magnitude-61-hits-afghanistan-2445786-2023-10-07
Televised Fox News Speaker forum called off after candidates pull out
https://thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thehill.com/homenews/house/4242236-televised-fox-news-speaker-forum-called-off-after-candidates-pull-out/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16966813810605&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fthehill.com%2Fhomenews%2Fhouse%2F4242236-televised-fox-news-speaker-forum-called-off-after-candidates-pull-out%2F
“Plans for a televised Fox News forum with three contenders for House Speaker fell apart soon after they were announced.
Host Bret Baier was slated to have House Majority Leader Scalise (R-La.), House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Republican Study Committee Chairman Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) for a Monday event that Fox News billed as a “joint interview” rather than a debate.”
Cronus says Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 6:59 pm
Politically, this could go either way. I’m sure the right will try to use it to their political advantage. But, this is a massive screw up by the Israelis*. Someone’s going to have to take the blame, and the buck should be stopping with Netanyahu. If the Opposition are any good they’ll be telling people that’s he’s been too busy protecting himself to protect Israel.
* It’s obviously a tactical success for Hamas. Whether it turns into a strategic success is another question. No doubt Israel will be looking to send infantry into Gaza. I’m guessing Hamas have prepared for that. This will likely get very bloody.
You guys support Hamas. Congratulations. You have got what you wanted.
FUBAR:
What in the everliving fuck are you on about?
By “you guys”, he means the left.
World news roundup
Israel halts electricity supply to Gaza Strip: Energy minister: https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/10/07/Israel-will-cut-off-its-supply-of-electricity-to-Gaza-Energy-minister
Pentagon says it will support Israel after Netanyahu declares war: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4243366-pentagon-says-it-will-support-israel-after-leader-declares-war/
An Israeli airstrike has flattened a high-rise building in central Gaza City after Hamas launched a surprise attack: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/israeli-airstrike-flattened-high-rise-building-central-gaza-103807208
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran say Israel has only itself to blame for Hamas attack: https://thehill.com/policy/international/4243388-saudi-arabia-qatar-iran-blame-israel-hamas-attacks/
Hamas surprise attack a ‘historic failure’ for Israeli intelligence services: https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20231007-hamas-surprise-attack-a-historic-failure-for-israeli-intelligence-services
Hamas terror attack: Militants post videos of Israeli hostages including mother and baby: https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/hamas-claims-to-have-abducted-israelis-and-taken-them-back-into-the-gaza-1fHCn0t8CPSnFK4ksDmWkg
‘Sea of bodies’ in Israel, scores dead in Gaza as shock Hamas attack unleashes war: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/sirens-warning-incoming-rockets-sound-around-gaza-near-tel-aviv-2023-10-07/
Netanyahu offered Lapid and Gantz entry into a ‘broad emergency government’: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762161
UN Security Council to Meet Sunday over Attacks on Israel: https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/4591061-un-security-council-meet-sunday-over-attacks-israel
EU condemns Hamas attack on Israel as ‘terrorism in its most despicable form’: https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-ursulva-von-der-leyen-hamas-palestina-condemns-terrorism/
‘In Solidarity At This Difficult Hour’: PM Modi Expresses ‘Deep Shock’ Over Hamas Attack on Israel: https://www.news18.com/india/in-solidarity-at-this-difficult-hour-pm-modi-expresses-deep-shock-over-hamas-attack-on-israel-8607269.html
Ukraine’s accession would cost €186B, EU estimates: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-accession-cost-186-billion-eu-enlargement/
A Pennsylvania chocolate factory was fined more than $44,000 by the federal workplace safety agency on Thursday for failing to evacuate before a natural gas explosion that killed seven people: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/pennsylvania-chocolate-factory-fined-failing-evacuate-fatal-natural-103766636
Witnesses to FBI hunt for Civil War gold describe heavily loaded armored truck, signs of a night dig: https://apnews.com/article/civil-war-gold-fbi-dig-pennsylvania-6b5feca00ebf3e04638a8bbce992809d
Ex-soldier indicted for trying to pass U.S. defense info to China: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ex-soldier-indicted-passing-us-defense-info-china-joseph-daniel-schmidt/
Former Vice President Mike Pence tore into Donald Trump and pointed to isolationism in the Republican Party as complicit in the sweeping Hamas attack on Israel, decrying American “retreat on the world stage.”
In a scathing rebuke, Pence faulted “voices of appeasement like Donald Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis that I believe have run contrary to the tradition in our party that America is the leader of the free world.”
Pence’s comments in Iowa represented the first ripple in the Republican primary from the violence that erupted on Saturday — and effectively threw down a challenge to Republicans he said have “embraced the language of isolationism and appeasement.”
The role of the United States in maintaining global security is one of the most important points of friction between the Republican presidential candidates — one that could now erupt in a new way because of the violence in Israel. Pence’s criticism of Trump was uncharacteristically pointed. But it was even more remarkable for the break it represented in their previously lockstep approach to Israel. Once a signature priority of the Trump-Pence administration, the U.S.-Israel relationship Saturday was suddenly becoming a wedge issue between them.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/07/gop-presidential-hopefuls-reaffirm-support-for-israel-following-hamas-attack-00120481
New thread.
Nimby’s against Wind Power.
C@tmomma, these are the same people who oppose offshore oil & gas search.
A proposition which most of us living upon the Hunter/Central Coast would support.
However, following this campaign, loosely, the main argument against investigating the possibility of, and if viable the construction of offshore wind farms is that it will be aesthetically unpleasing.
Really! As the proposed site is from 10 – 14km offshore and over the horizon these people must have wonderful and superhuman eyesight.
If so, maybe they could be relocated to northern Australia and act as over the horizon eyes for the coastal defence of Australia.
The other alternative is that they are stooges for the Hunter Valley coal industry who have a vested interest in opposing alternative green energy processes.
The current situation in Israel is a bit like an air disaster in that a combination of factors have all come together to cause it.
A sizeable segment of the Israeli population continues to believe that Benjamin Netanyahu is a tough guy who will keep them safe: among older voters, some of this is still tied to the heroic efforts of his brother Yonatan, who died leading the rescue of the hostages at Entebbe in 1976.
This segment of the population is big enough to sustain Likud as a major player in Israeli politics but not big enough nowadays to enable it to govern in its own right. Some say that Netanyahu would do pretty much anything to be in government because that protects him from the various open criminal cases against him. I don’t understand the complexities of the Israeli legal system to be sure that this assertion is correct. But, for whatever reason, Netanyahu – who used to have some principles – now seems to be prepared even to do a deal with the devil in order to get into government and, before the 2022 election, he did just this by creating a coalition featuring pretty much all of the religious far right, even the pro-settler Religious Zionist Party.
The consequences were inevitably going to be something like this. The settler movement – now with the full backing of the government – is putting unbearable pressure on the Palestinian residents of the West Bank and some sort of lashing out was inevitable. But the attack was always going to come not from there but from Gaza, where it is much easier for the terrorists to stockpile weapons.
The aims of extremists such as the Religious Zionist Party is nothing less than to expunge all Palestinians from the occupied territories. This is, of course, an insane objective and no sensible major political figure would ever give its proponents any credence unless, as we have already noted, they were in desperate need of the support of those same extremists to hold government.
Netanyahu has comprehensively failed to keep Israelis safe: rather, he has allowed extremists to stir up the trouble that we are now seeing. It’s a mystery as to what went wrong with the usually excellent Israeli intelligence services, but blame for that has to be sheeted home to Netanyahu too. He should also be criticised for giving such a powerful role in his government to the “free rider” element of Israeli society: the orthodox groups who expect to be defended by the Israeli military but who refused to allow their young people to serve in that military.
Once the dust settles on this disaster, the honourable thing for the Likud Party to do would be to depose Netanyahu as leader, and then seek to form a government of national unity with the opposition. Israel’s future prospects would improve greatly. However, I fear that something like this can’t happen until more Likud voters – particularly the older more fearful ones – wake up to the risks they face from having extremists wielding power in their government. And that might take a little while longer.
BTW, the Israeli election system and the opposition parties also need to get some of the blame for what has happened. The rather silly electoral rule that means that voters for a small party squander their votes unless that party reaches 3.25 per cent of the vote (I think that’s what it is these days, it used to be less). While Netanyahu cleverly pulled together a unified coalition and thereby avoided the 3.25 per cent problem – the opposition allowed its votes to splinter and many votes were consequently squandered.
So, as I said at the start, Israel has experienced the political and governmental equivalent of an air crash. And it won’t be easy to fix. For its strong supporters around the world, among whom I number myself, it’s a horrific state of affairs.
Netanyahu’s chickens have come home to roost. His PMships have made a key objective of the destruction of the Oslo accords and a viable 2 state solution, successfully. He backed the settlers at every turn. His botched assassination on Khalid Meshal and its aftermath led to the Gaza takeover by Hamas. Extremists on both sides have thrived at everyone elses expense.