As we enter day three of the two-week early voting period for the October 14 Indigenous Voice referendum, the latest poll findings are as follows:
• This fortnight’s Essential Research poll contains an Indigenous Voice referendum result that is unusual in not finding yes in decline — no leads 49-43, which is in from 51-41 a fortnight ago. No includes 42% hard no and 8% soft no, while yes includes 30% hard and 13% soft. A question on whether respondents felt well informed about the referendum found effectively no change over the past month, with yes steady on 49% and no up one to 29%. Forty-nine per cent expected the proposal would fail, compared with 26% who expected it would pass.
• A RedBridge Group poll of 1500 respondents conducted from September 13 to 21 had no leading 62-38. Breakdowns for the three biggest states had no leading 58-42 in New South Wales, 59-41 in Victoria and 68-32 in Queensland.
• A Roy Morgan poll of 1511 respondents conducted from September 18 to 24 had no leading 44-39. Based on small samples, no led 42-40 in New South Wales, 49-31 in Queensland, 46-30 in Western Australia, 48-36 in South Australia, while yes led 46-42 in Victoria. The negligible sample of Tasmanian respondents broke 56-43 to yes.
• With all the latest numbers added, the poll tracker being conducted by Professor Simon Jackman for the ABC currently has no leading 58-42. Jackman’s highly sophisticated methods are explained in detail here.
UPDATE: And now a poll from YouGov, which is no longer involved with Newspoll but from which I am told we can expect a fair bit of independently conducted polling in future, a finding that no leads 53-38. It comes, furthermore, with voting intention results showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1563.