Indigenous Voice polling round-up

With less than a fortnight to go, a slight narrowing in the no lead from Essential Research offers the closest thing to good news for the yes campaign.

As we enter day three of the two-week early voting period for the October 14 Indigenous Voice referendum, the latest poll findings are as follows:

• This fortnight’s Essential Research poll contains an Indigenous Voice referendum result that is unusual in not finding yes in decline — no leads 49-43, which is in from 51-41 a fortnight ago. No includes 42% hard no and 8% soft no, while yes includes 30% hard and 13% soft. A question on whether respondents felt well informed about the referendum found effectively no change over the past month, with yes steady on 49% and no up one to 29%. Forty-nine per cent expected the proposal would fail, compared with 26% who expected it would pass.

• A RedBridge Group poll of 1500 respondents conducted from September 13 to 21 had no leading 62-38. Breakdowns for the three biggest states had no leading 58-42 in New South Wales, 59-41 in Victoria and 68-32 in Queensland.

• A Roy Morgan poll of 1511 respondents conducted from September 18 to 24 had no leading 44-39. Based on small samples, no led 42-40 in New South Wales, 49-31 in Queensland, 46-30 in Western Australia, 48-36 in South Australia, while yes led 46-42 in Victoria. The negligible sample of Tasmanian respondents broke 56-43 to yes.

• With all the latest numbers added, the poll tracker being conducted by Professor Simon Jackman for the ABC currently has no leading 58-42. Jackman’s highly sophisticated methods are explained in detail here.

UPDATE: And now a poll from YouGov, which is no longer involved with Newspoll but from which I am told we can expect a fair bit of independently conducted polling in future, a finding that no leads 53-38. It comes, furthermore, with voting intention results showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1563.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

152 comments on “Indigenous Voice polling round-up”

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  1. I did my sad duty yesterday and voted NO at the pre-polling booth in camberwell.

    There were POSITIVE vibes and GREAT energy amongst the volunteers for both YES and No sides and also from the AEC staff on the floor.

    At a time when rockets are being fired into the only democratic nation in the middle east, I feel proud of this democracy and I tip my hat to those who post on this site, even those I disagree with ( especially Pi)

  2. The Resolve Poll tonight has Yes ahead only in Tasmania, and No leading in all other states. The biggest problem for the Yes camp is Victoria with a 54% NO vote and SA with a NO vote of 55.5%. Qld and WA were gone for Yes a long time ago. The only glimmer of light for Yes is a small improvement in NSW.

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