As we enter day three of the two-week early voting period for the October 14 Indigenous Voice referendum, the latest poll findings are as follows:
• This fortnight’s Essential Research poll contains an Indigenous Voice referendum result that is unusual in not finding yes in decline — no leads 49-43, which is in from 51-41 a fortnight ago. No includes 42% hard no and 8% soft no, while yes includes 30% hard and 13% soft. A question on whether respondents felt well informed about the referendum found effectively no change over the past month, with yes steady on 49% and no up one to 29%. Forty-nine per cent expected the proposal would fail, compared with 26% who expected it would pass.
• A RedBridge Group poll of 1500 respondents conducted from September 13 to 21 had no leading 62-38. Breakdowns for the three biggest states had no leading 58-42 in New South Wales, 59-41 in Victoria and 68-32 in Queensland.
• A Roy Morgan poll of 1511 respondents conducted from September 18 to 24 had no leading 44-39. Based on small samples, no led 42-40 in New South Wales, 49-31 in Queensland, 46-30 in Western Australia, 48-36 in South Australia, while yes led 46-42 in Victoria. The negligible sample of Tasmanian respondents broke 56-43 to yes.
• With all the latest numbers added, the poll tracker being conducted by Professor Simon Jackman for the ABC currently has no leading 58-42. Jackman’s highly sophisticated methods are explained in detail here.
UPDATE: And now a poll from YouGov, which is no longer involved with Newspoll but from which I am told we can expect a fair bit of independently conducted polling in future, a finding that no leads 53-38. It comes, furthermore, with voting intention results showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1563.
Pisays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 5:14 pm
Mexb: “I’m saying it will advise.”
It’s an advisory body. What the fuck else do you think it would do?
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Research issues and offer advice.
Pisays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 5:14 pm
Mexb: “I’m saying it will advise.”
It’s an advisory body. What the fuck else do you think it would do? The ACCC would advise. So would the productivity commission. So would the Business Council.
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They are not advisory bodies.
I’m not going to waste my time with your irrelevant pedantic bullshit mexb. Your argument seems to boil down to: “What happens if they have an opinion I don’t like?”. Which is as useless an opinion as it sounds.
Pisays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 5:19 pm
I’m not going to waste my time with your irrelevant pedantic bullshit mexb. Your argument seems to boil down to: “What happens if they have an opinion I don’t like?”. Which is as useless an opinion as it sounds.
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I’m telling you how it will work from the actual question we are voting on.
No you’re not. You’ve gone off on an irrelevant tangent, and frankly, I don’t care where you’re headed with it. The only thing you’re bringing to this discussion is irrelevance.
Pisays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 5:23 pm
No you’re not. You’ve gone off on an irrelevant tangent, and frankly, I don’t care where you’re headed with it.
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Its okay if you don’t understand the referendum question and how advisory bodies work.
What we talking about was whether the voice has anything to do with land rights, and it does not. Land rights has a specific judicial underpinning in the Mabo decision and specific legislation related to it. The voice has nothing to with either of those things. THAT was what was being discussed when you decided to chuck in your irrelevance. We’re done.
Pisays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 5:30 pm
What we talking about was whether the voice has anything to do with land rights, and it does not. Land rights has a specific judicial underpinning and specific legislation related to it. The voice has nothing to with either of those things. THAT was what was being discussed when you decided to chuck in your irrelevance. We’re done
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It is not irrelevant at all because the voice can advise on any matter relating to Aboriginal Australians and that covers any treaty and any treaty might discuss land rights.
But it has no power to affect land rights. So it is irrelevant to that discussion.
Which has been explained to you about 10 times.
Pisays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 5:37 pm
But it has no power to affect land rights. So it is irrelevant to that discussion.
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What part of give advice don’t you understand because earlier you said it would have no role at all but it does.
But it has no power to affect land rights. So it is irrelevant to that discussion.
Which has been explained to you about 11 times.
Pisays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 5:37 pm
But it has no power to affect land rights. So it is irrelevant to that discussion.
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The power to advise gives it a say on land rights.
But it has no power to affect land rights. So it is irrelevant to that discussion.
Which has been explained to you about 12 times.
Pisays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 5:47 pm
But it has no power to affect land rights. So it is irrelevant to that discussion.
Which has been explained to you about 12 times.
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Having a say gives it the power to affect land rights.
But it has no power to affect land rights. The government wouldn’t even need to actually consult ANYONE in the production of ANY legislation, whether it’s land rights or ANYTHING, if they didn’t want to. So it is irrelevant to that discussion.
Which has been explained to you about 13 times.
And now we’re seriously done.
Pisays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 5:52 pm
But it has no power to affect land rights. The government wouldn’t even need to actually consult them in the production of any legislation if they didn’t want to. So it is irrelevant to that discussion.
Which has been explained to you about 13 times.
And now we’re seriously done.
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You have explained nothing because we already know it will only advise but you said it and a treaty have nothing to do with land rights.
I wonder what effect if any the Palmer ads will have, going out to all states and territories from tomorrow.
FUBAR
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 4:27 pm
“goll – interesting that you are so comfortable supporting the Tamil Tiger parents – if they aren’t racist then I don’t know who is – the Khmer Rouge war criminals of Sri Lanka”
You have problems, get some help.
What a silly back and forth over land rights. The Voice has no power over any area. So it has just as much, or as little, to do with land rights as it has to do with anything else.
“What comes after the Voice? The invoice. Don’t think you won’t be forced to ‘pay the rent’. It’s already happening in Western Australia”
I guess these millions of dollars worth of flagrant misinformation is allowed to be pumped out in the final days of the referendum campaign because of the “Freedom of Speech” principle? When you see how much easier it is to produce than refute bullshit, you realise that YES never really stood a chance. I will not be surprised if these ads make a painful result even more painful.
goll – you are the one with the problems – denying the facts doesn’t change the parents from being Tamil Tigers.
Briggs, in what is effectively the “Google it, mate” moment of the campaign.
Brilliant
https://x.com/Briggs/status/1709423617686274091?s=20
Ray Martin – the No campaign thanks you for your contribution. Another arrogant “I know better than you plebs” moment.
Love that Briggs clip
I reckon YES needs to run some “former PMs for YES” ads in the final week.
Albo needs to steer clear for obvious reasons, but that doesnt hold for ex-PMs.
Rudd and Turnbull together would make a great bipartisan team, folks. And great copy. And/or Gillard. Keating too. You could add Ken Wyatt to the mix.
Bipartisanship is available, you just have to shift back a few years !
It’ll get some of the Labor voters back in the fold as well.
Tomorrow’s Financial Review – the No vote polling much better in Teal seats than you might expect.
Beemer, having a say is not a power, giving advice is not a power. Anyone in Australia can offer an opinion on land rights, so too will the Voice, but to say it has a “power” over land rights as a result is scaremongering misinformation.
We saw some Yes ads tonight featuring Senator McCarthy and Ken Wyatt and seriously, if these were running 6 months ago…
It feels like the feedback has finally got through to Yes headquarters and with some positive results but almost certainly too late unfortunately.
Instead of respectful persuasion, engagement and making a good case, the yes campaign went down the moral bullying, insulting and arrogant instruction Road. They will deserve losing this referendum.
Dallas: “moral bullying”
How come racists always complain about being bullied? Projection, that’s why. And a crushing desire to be victims in order to justify it. Which is exactly why every single one of them wants to talk about land rights.
Dallas Morgansays:
Friday, October 6, 2023 at 5:38 am
[Instead of respectful persuasion, engagement and making a good case, the yes campaign went down the moral bullying, insulting and arrogant instruction Road. They will deserve losing this referendum.]
Instead we are offered low information fear mongering, fear diversions, lies, racism and lack of integrity from the “no” camp.
Thanks for the disigenerous claptrap from the “no” vote lemmings following the “pied piper” leader of the opposition, humiliated at the most recent election, together with his then leader Morrison, for the extent of their dishonesty, unfairness and lack of transparency.
You expose bleating hypocrisy with complete lack of self awareness.
Palmer’s invoice… would that be the $360B he’s suing us for?
“moral bullying”
Nah, that’s a focus-group tested meme from camp No, designed to foster a sense of victimhood so you won’t have empathy with a less fortunate group.
Hasn’t actually happened.
Democracy Sausage,
How can that be? This is supposed to be a disaster for the LNP in Teal seats. Don’t tell me the denizens of this site have NFI.
Didn’t manage to make it into any round up. Strange that.
It is a disaster for the LNP. The poll numbers in Teal seats are incredibly close, much closer than the general polls for YES/NO elsewhere.
It highlights how Dutton’s position on the referendum will make it very difficult to reclaim those seats, and therefore government, at the next general election.
Briggs’ skit has been viewed by millions. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-06/australian-rappers-yes-voice-skit-goes-viral/102937176
I confidently predict YES will be closing hard on NO over the last 8 days.
Will it be enough? That is the question now. Hang on to your hats, folks.
Groom a boomer to vote yes
https://vimeo.com/871363071
Lefty_e:
I’m always very sceptical about whether stuff like this is actually cutting through the unengaged and undecided rather than just preaching to the choir. In any case, now that we’re nearly halfway through prepolls, that would have to be one seriously potent video to substantially turn things around at this point.
Hope I’m wrong!
As usual, a well-considered discussion from Grattan, this time focusing on Leesor and Price:
https://citynews.com.au/2023/is-there-a-way-back-for-campaining-leeser/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Without saying so directly, it is possible to develop a view that Price is Dutton’s Thorpe.
Apropos of nothing, Leeser has been a good advocate for the Voice at least in Liberal circles.
He was hamstrung by his own contradictions when he was in shadow cabinet but appears to have proselytised the case well in the broadsheets and various think tank speeches.
A shame he may very well be out of Parliament at the next election with Berowra high on the chopping block post-AEC redistributions and NSW losing a seat.
Got my vote done today. Quick in and out. Nice to see the polls tightening, but I doubt it’ll be enough this late in the game. Hopefully at least this might start to spell the end for ‘simple messaging’. General comment here, but people want real information, not to be treated like simpletons. We’re sick and tired of ads that tell us nothing except ‘go to the website’, then when you get to the website, there’s no information there either, and you have to spend hours hunting through legislation to try to find the answers yourself. It was extreme arrogance to go to a referendum not giving us the detail we need to make an informed decision. It opened the door for so much scaremongering, and all over something as simple as an advisory body. An advisory body that will soon be ignored, just like they ignore every other indigenous advocacy group. That Dutton and Hanson are about to get their way is just awful. The thought of that woman gloating on election night…
“The thought of that woman gloating on election night…”
“The Gloating Woman” as a portrait to be hung in a gallery for….
It somehow characterises the referendum in all its inglorious display, warts and all.
I expect the Briggs video is killing off any so-called “Progressive No” support in the under 35 bracket, Asha.
Just negated FUBAR’s “no” vote !
On the way back to the bush tomorrow to drop off some materials for an Indigenous housing project.
Front page of today’s West had a poll of WA (for/by Fair Australia, the no side): no is up 59-36. Broken down, 54% hard no and 31% hard yes, so only 5% soft on each side. Looks like it’s cactus here, then.
I shall be looking forward to Albos Address to the Nation from behind his desk on Sunday 22 October.
He will need to be Prime Ministerial, admit his shortcomings on this issue, reach out to Yes and No voters, to indigenous women and men and, initially, commit to simply rewriting the constitution so that it recognises the original people’s who occupied this Island.
You wreck it, you own it.
Team Australia, the natural habitat of racist bogans, insulated by a veneer of wealth and aquistions, an addiction to destroying sclerophyll forests, damming perennial streams and rivers, to grow cotton and almonds while excavating huge holes in the ground to “get lucky” with natural “lotto” minerals, gems and carats all of the ornamental variety.
Like slow race horses, the majority of the most unatural inhabitants, wear blinkers to go faster and keep their minds fixed on their pipe dreams of unfairness and inequality.
As with all the feral pests introduced to the wide brown land, the apex feral white pests are intent on recreating the “inland sea” through a combination of contributing “above their weight” to global warming by removing every natural piece of eucalyptus melliodora, pauciflora, nicholii and the plethfora of other eucalpt varieties, unique to the wide brown land and replace them with vast holes now known as gigantic “waste repositories of wisdom” or just wastelands.
What First Australians, they cried with glee?
No-ones taking our petrol burning, four on the floor, black and white televisions, our user pay tollways to no-where and poker machines galore, they responded with “an agree”.
“They’re are a weird mob” in “poor fellow my country” so apt where “sunday is too far away” and “all the rivers (don’t) run.
That great philosopher once proclaimed “such is life” (unfortunatly as it came to be!)
No doubt one of News, the 9 papers, the Thin Review will have a Monday poll. Maybe Morgan and Essential will deliver something Thursday and Friday.
SMH on X – “A clear majority of Australia is against the Voice despite a small swing to Yes with almost every state projected to vote No, exclusive polling shows”
Paywalled.
How’s that grooming going?