Federally relevant developments of note from the past week that do not specifically relate to the Indigenous Voice referendum:
• As noted as a post-script to the Indigenous Voice post, YouGov has entered the polling game independently of its former status as the pollster behind Newspoll. Its debut federal voting intention result had Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday before last from a sample of 1563.
• This week’s Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 32.5%, Coalition 37.5% and Greens 13%.
• With the close of nominations on Wednesday, ten candidates came forward for the preselection to fill Marise Payne’s Liberal Senate vacancy in New South Wales. The long-presumed front-runner, former state government minister Andrew Constance, faces two high-profile late starters in Zed Seselja, who lost his ACT Senate seat to David Pocock at the last election, and Dave Sharma, who lost Wentworth to Allegra Spender. Max Maddison of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that a two-horse race is anticipated between Constance and Seselja, who are respectively likely to dominate the moderate and conservative blocs. Seselja is one of a number of conservatives to take the field following Nyunggai Warren Mundine’s withdrawal, the others including Monica Tudehope, former policy director to Dominic Perrottet, and Jess Collins, researcher for the Lowy Institute. Also in the field are Lou Amato, a former state upper house member; James Brown, Space Industry Association chief executive; and lawyers Ishita Sethi and Pallavi Sinha. UPDATE: Alexi Demaitriadi of The Australian further reports that the missing name is solicitor Nimalan Rutnam; that moderate support is solid behind Constance, leaving Sharma with no chance; and that “insiders with knowledge of the situation cautioned against underestimating Mr Amato’s numbers”. The vote will take place on November 26.
• The process for the federal redistribution in New South Wales, necessitated by its loss of a seat in the regular mid-term entitlement calculation, has advanced with the setting of October 27 as the deadline for suggestions and the publication of the enrolment data that will be used to make the determination. The latter and its implications have been examined by Antony Green and Ben Raue.