Federally relevant developments of note from the past week that do not specifically relate to the Indigenous Voice referendum:
• As noted as a post-script to the Indigenous Voice post, YouGov has entered the polling game independently of its former status as the pollster behind Newspoll. Its debut federal voting intention result had Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday before last from a sample of 1563.
• This week’s Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 32.5%, Coalition 37.5% and Greens 13%.
• With the close of nominations on Wednesday, ten candidates came forward for the preselection to fill Marise Payne’s Liberal Senate vacancy in New South Wales. The long-presumed front-runner, former state government minister Andrew Constance, faces two high-profile late starters in Zed Seselja, who lost his ACT Senate seat to David Pocock at the last election, and Dave Sharma, who lost Wentworth to Allegra Spender. Max Maddison of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that a two-horse race is anticipated between Constance and Seselja, who are respectively likely to dominate the moderate and conservative blocs. Seselja is one of a number of conservatives to take the field following Nyunggai Warren Mundine’s withdrawal, the others including Monica Tudehope, former policy director to Dominic Perrottet, and Jess Collins, researcher for the Lowy Institute. Also in the field are Lou Amato, a former state upper house member; James Brown, Space Industry Association chief executive; and lawyers Ishita Sethi and Pallavi Sinha. UPDATE: Alexi Demaitriadi of The Australian further reports that the missing name is solicitor Nimalan Rutnam; that moderate support is solid behind Constance, leaving Sharma with no chance; and that “insiders with knowledge of the situation cautioned against underestimating Mr Amato’s numbers”. The vote will take place on November 26.
• The process for the federal redistribution in New South Wales, necessitated by its loss of a seat in the regular mid-term entitlement calculation, has advanced with the setting of October 27 as the deadline for suggestions and the publication of the enrolment data that will be used to make the determination. The latter and its implications have been examined by Antony Green and Ben Raue.
Watermelon says:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 9:28 pm
Gaza is a small reservation into which two million Palestinians have been herded and caged; the most tightly populated sliver of land on the planet, where the descendants of ethnically cleansed refugees have lived blockaded by land, air and sea for twenty years. A million children have grown up inside the walls of a deliberately malnourished ghetto, forbidden to leave and surrounded by armed checkpoints, as their prison guards truck in the barest minimum of calories calculated to prevent mass starvation, blocking luxuries such as fruit, shoes, shampoo, medicine, building materials and batteries; an open-air prison where two million prisoners, half children, have been placed behind walls to fester in abject poverty and rampant anemia with intermittent electricity and a water supply unfit for human consumption, for twenty years, rats in a cage, fish in a barrel, a boot stamping on a human face forever
………….. ……….
What an odd prison, no shampoo but 5000 missiles.
‘warmongering adjacent’. Lol lol lol lol lol lol. 🙄
I care about the country being able to defend itself successfully, if necessary, and that’s bent out of shape and into ‘warmongering adjacent’. Also, juvenile.
And no, I haven’t read every word of every post that either you or Socrates have made recently because they are becoming repetitive and predictable. When they say something worthwhile, for example about the frigates, then I read it closely. Have you heard me criticise them? No. So, does that make Socrates, ‘warmongering adjacent’, because I agree with him? 😐
Honestly, I’m beginning to think that you two would be more satisfied if the government decided to build canoes. From France, of course. At least they could be built quickly. 😆
Socrates @ #301 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 10:01 pm
So, can you at least acknowledge that they are doing the necessary reviews? And that they may just contain the answers you are looking for?
Andrew Earlwood
“ Socrates however was one of its biggest initial supporters on this blog, but has come to a different conclusion based on the available evidence.”
Thanks. I never believed Scomo but tried to accept what navy chiefs said about AUKUS in the first instance. But as you know the more I checked AUKUS claims, the more I felt they didn’t check out.
Best case, we will spend $368 billion, the international climate will become more benign, and it won’t matter. AUKUS proponents will say the deterrent worked.
”
Steve777says:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 8:32 pm
”AUKUS will be Australia’s Maginot Line. We should call it the Morrison Class SSN.”
By the time the things are delivered everyone will have forgotten who Morrison was…
”
Or he will still be MP in parliament in his 80s like Billy Hughes was. Who knows.
There is saying in Sanskrit translated in English “sinner lives long”.
Gorks @ #302 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 10:01 pm
Rent increases, mortgage repayment increases, and the Cost of Living, generally, are screwing people into the ground. That’s the elephant in the room and the federal government need to get back to their knitting about it.
$368 billion in military drones might have been better but Keating might be right that the real problem isn’t Australia being part of the sub deal but that its only a small number of subs.
We need Subs AND Drones and UAVs.
Newspoll says young people are turning to ‘No’. Resolve Strategic says they are turning to ‘Yes’. Who to believe?
Ghost who Votes has Newspoll’s TPP at ALP 53 (-1) L/NP 47 (+1)
Must have seen a PDF of the front page or the like, its not in the online article yet.
Slip slidin
Leroy says:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 10:17 pm
Ghost who Votes has Newspoll’s TPP at ALP 53 (-1) L/NP 47 (+1)
Must have seen a PDF of teh front page or the like, its not in the online article yet.
________
Thanks. I couldn’t find it either.
Slip sliding away ….
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 10:14 pm
Newspoll says young people are turning to ‘No’. Resolve Strategic says they are turning to ‘Yes’. Who to believe?
—————
Kos Samaras is confusing because he says the outer suburbs are going no but then says Craigieburn in Melbourne’s outer north is going yes.
@C@t… none. Just wait, honestly.
My gut feel of late is the undecideds are breaking to Yes, but there are fewer of them because No got out there and poisoned the well earlier.
On general polling? IT DOESN’T MATTER.
There were two reasons for the Liberals en masse to back in No – 1. a reactive hatred of change, ESPECIALLY if it involves minorities 2. an ability to politically injure Albanese – because they know damn well they haven’t got a hope at the next election without Albo being diminished.
Albo is a scumbag, keeps approving coal mines and runaway migration. At least he comes off more empathetic than Scomo I guess.
I note that this Newspoll TPP is 53-47, and the recent YouGov (below) TPP is also 53-47. The YouGov primaries were pretty close too. I guess that’s just where we are right now.
https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/47503-no-53-yes-38-in-voice-referendum-poll
Presumably there will be Resolve voting figures too, perhaps in The Age / SMH in a day or so.
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 9:54 pm
Socrates – and others – have laid out very detailed cases wrt to AUKUS, but C@t either hasn’t read those posts, or chooses to be wilfully obtuse. Hence this type of vignette:
“ That’s quite a few Panglossian statements there, Soc. You sound as if you’re trying to justify your pov to yourself! Not particularly laying out a case that will convince me.”
But don’t anyone ever call her out over her wilful stupidity or ‘warmongering adjacent’ POVs and general paranoia. Oh, no.
AUKUS – every aspect – is a trillion dollar dumpster fire that makes Australia – and the region – less safe. … but don’t just take it from me. … Google it.
Edited to add: I’m unashamadly jaundiced against AUKUS & have been since day one. Socrates however was one of its biggest initial supporters on this blog, but has come to a different conclusion based on the available evidence.
”
I’m unashamadly jaundiced against AUKUS & have been since day two.
Newspoll:
No 58
Yes 34
Channel 7 Poll:
No 61
Yes 29
jt1983 @ #318 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 10:22 pm
Exactly. 100%
This is a very good analysis of modern politics by Prof Daniel Ziblatt, Tom Nichols and Joy Reid:
https://youtu.be/OuzhwLmiOsg?si=8gUWLHW9Of4HjscK
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 10:14 pm
Newspoll says young people are turning to ‘No’. Resolve Strategic says they are turning to ‘Yes’. Who to believe?
_____________________
Well you have been gloating over the 54/46 Newspoll continously for the past fortnight so you have to stick with them.
William, I was just looking back through today’s posts and at 1.37 pm Watermelon did actually use the term ‘final solution’ in exactly the same context as I used it.
Still, you’re the boss.
Lars Von Trier
Slip sliding away ….
What is? Your right hand?
Taylormade @ #323 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 10:31 pm
Yep. After all the chum the Coalition have thrown into the water to muddy it over the referendum, it’s still 53-47. 🙂
Shogun @ #325 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 10:31 pm
I was going to more politely observe that the only thing slipping and sliding is the oleaginous, Lars Von Trier. 🙂
Precious chance of AUKUS being able to help australia defend itself for 16 years C@t: and then and only then if the Americans do actually transfer three Virginia class subs and they enter RAN service as planned by 2039. … but that goes to the nub of the problem with this aspect of ‘the plan’: if implemented it would leave America weaker in regards to a key capability for at least half a decade: and that’s ‘even if’ they spool up submarine production from 1.2 boats a year to 2.5 boats a year by 2030 (which is the most optimistic ‘best case’ scenario being projected).
The present US administration may talk a big game about AUKUS, but future administrations – and not just the terrible awful republican ones – will get mugged by reality: there is simply no way the Americans will allow their SSN fleet slip below 40 boats in service. … and yet that is the consequence of their promise to provide ‘interim capability’ by way of Virginia class boast to the RAN.
As for the brits: ‘the plan’ now tolls the bell – no SSN-AUKUS submarines for Australia until 2043 at the earliest. right now there is no SSN-AUKUS sub. It’s not even on a design board anywhere. BAE have a terrible track record and are still struggling with both the Astute class and the new Dreadnaught class. …
This is all just fucked. IF australia really does need nuclear submarines to defend itself, then why not start acquiring french ones from next year? They are the most modern, capable, perfectly suited to both patrolling through Indonesia and other parts of our archipelagic north (where any threat to Australia MUST come through) and the deep water, oceanic ‘Hunter-killer’ work that the AUKUS ‘plan’ promises as a capability? Also only half (maybe only even a third) of the incls. Costs of AUKUS. Fat Pie Shop Pat can have his Australian nuclear submarine workforce being recruited NOW, and not ina decade’s time (if ever) under AUKUS.
And, bald as brass, you keep incarnating that there is no alternative to AUKUS. Well clearly there is.
Further, given that any threat to australia must come through our archipelagic northern approaches, then another feasible ‘interim’ capacity for Australia to pursue is new conventional subs – one’s that can ambush threats in strategic pinch points, but still have enough kenetic heft to transverse vast distances. Like those Attack class subs we cancelled.
What you AUKUS enthusiasts fail to admit is this basic truth: the French subs were canceled and France’s government humiliated so that ‘the message’ could be massaged onto the Australian public that the only option available was an American-British deal. If we either committed to 6 Attack class subs to replace the Collins class – so as to avoid the obvious capability gap – while a proper nuclear sub appraisal process was undertaken then the outcome would have been clear: it would be a very firm NO to BAE and a yes to French nuclear subs. The knots that you and the likes of pie shop Pat and the perfumed warlord go to avoid this obvious point is simply astonishing. Why to you love Britain so much C@t? Especially the dregs of the Tory party that are equally behind this shit-show as ScoMo?
Missed that. My apologies for suggesting Watermelon might be smarter than you.
I think quite a few cabinet ministers wish this referendum was over and done with. And why does this PM seem to spend all his time promoting something that is clearly going to lose badly next Saturday?
The government hopefully has a post referendum strategy
Putting aside AUKUS subs this is a video by a NZ analyst that looks at the Russo Ukrainian naval war and the technological changes that appear to be making a fleet of small numbers of large ships obsolete. This is one thing I think the DSR got right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adc4bu0RgO0
On this logic building 9 large, costly ASW Frigates without much air defence doesn’t make much sense. The hard bit will be cutting or cancelling the Hunter contract without creating another “valley of death” for the ASC workforce.
“Albo is a scumbag, keeps approving coal mines and runaway migration. At least he comes off more empathetic than Scomo I guess.”
@Burty
I would even think some of the Labor baggers on here who have been critical of Albanese would even suggest characterising Albo as a ‘scumbag’ goes too far.
After watching the replay of Insiders today, I fully agree with Peter van Onselen about Lidia Thorpe’s shrieking brainfart about the referendum enforcing genocide. He said it was probably one of the stupidest things he’d heard so far about the referendum and questioned why it was ever put to air in the first place.
New thread.
FUBAR @ #209 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 5:47 pm
Didn’t Israel’s corrupt PM-for-life just demand than some ~2 million civilians in Gaza “leave” (to where?), because the Israeli army is liable to raze the entire strip?
That may not be quite the same as “deliberately targeting civilians”, but given the obvious impossibility of that many people leaving a place that’s got a Sea on one side and Israel on almost all others it’s practically the same thing.
I guess they’re all expected to go flooding into Egypt. Did Israel clear that with Egypt? Will Israel provide safe harbor to refugees fleeing into its territory? Or sufficient naval capacity to transport the entire population by sea? All of those seem quite doubtful.
Indeed. It’s not like they take time, money, and resources to produce. Or complex logistics to deploy and operate. Just throw them out there and who cares if they all start exploding.
“Israel has not been deliberately targeting civilians nor kidnapping them.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-probes-video-of-troops-cheering-as-sniper-shoots-palestinian-near-gaza-fence/
Yah?? 🙁
Shogun @ 3.15pm
After the 1967 (& Day War) Jordan allowed a huge number of Palestinian refugees to enter and settle in the Kingdon of Jordan, as they were considered Bedouin brothers.
A few years later these refugees attempted to repay the Jordanian people by launching an armed uprising to overthrow the state of Jordan.
I have severe doubts as to whether the current State of Jordan will welcome a tiny or huge number of Bedouin brothers to settle in Jordan, this time.
During my journey through the Middle East in 2010, months before the disaster of the Arab Spring spread across the Arab world, I was staying at the Red Sea port of Jordan.
Israel shares a port virtually alongside that of its Jordan neighbour.
It wasn’t uncommon for small rockets, launched towards the Israeli port, to miss, and strike Jordan.
There is little love between Jordan and Palestine, despite sharing a large Bedouin culture.