Federally relevant developments of note from the past week that do not specifically relate to the Indigenous Voice referendum:
• As noted as a post-script to the Indigenous Voice post, YouGov has entered the polling game independently of its former status as the pollster behind Newspoll. Its debut federal voting intention result had Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday before last from a sample of 1563.
• This week’s Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 32.5%, Coalition 37.5% and Greens 13%.
• With the close of nominations on Wednesday, ten candidates came forward for the preselection to fill Marise Payne’s Liberal Senate vacancy in New South Wales. The long-presumed front-runner, former state government minister Andrew Constance, faces two high-profile late starters in Zed Seselja, who lost his ACT Senate seat to David Pocock at the last election, and Dave Sharma, who lost Wentworth to Allegra Spender. Max Maddison of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that a two-horse race is anticipated between Constance and Seselja, who are respectively likely to dominate the moderate and conservative blocs. Seselja is one of a number of conservatives to take the field following Nyunggai Warren Mundine’s withdrawal, the others including Monica Tudehope, former policy director to Dominic Perrottet, and Jess Collins, researcher for the Lowy Institute. Also in the field are Lou Amato, a former state upper house member; James Brown, Space Industry Association chief executive; and lawyers Ishita Sethi and Pallavi Sinha. UPDATE: Alexi Demaitriadi of The Australian further reports that the missing name is solicitor Nimalan Rutnam; that moderate support is solid behind Constance, leaving Sharma with no chance; and that “insiders with knowledge of the situation cautioned against underestimating Mr Amato’s numbers”. The vote will take place on November 26.
• The process for the federal redistribution in New South Wales, necessitated by its loss of a seat in the regular mid-term entitlement calculation, has advanced with the setting of October 27 as the deadline for suggestions and the publication of the enrolment data that will be used to make the determination. The latter and its implications have been examined by Antony Green and Ben Raue.
nath,
This is one ‘Labor partisan’ that doesn’t think Gnome Chomsky is the bee’s freaking knees.
Looking at well-known Telegram Russian Kremlin-fed outlets, they appear to be cheerleading for HAMAS.
In part, this is to demonstrate the uselessness of the US alliance and dependence Israel has on them.
Also, the use of Iranian drones by HAMAS seems to tickle the fancy of the Russian-aligned mil-bloggers.
sprocket:
Nobody will be happier than me if the referendum succeeds. But you can’t honestly think that with polling the way it is at this stage in the campaign that the ‘late swing’ will be enough to push through the double majority?
And as to the ground game for Yes, I’ve been told that their campaign in Western Sydney with those multicultural religious communities was so disastrous that they had to redesign a special t-shirt for volunteers because the white one with the multi colours reminded voters of the marriage equality vote and was an instant turn off. Before volunteers could even get into their schtick.
Surely those sorts of details should’ve been something on radar from the beginning?
C@t:
They’d all be excellent choices too.
C@t
The NO tee-shirts are also confusing, draped in traditional Indigenous sovereignty colours, with the word NO included.
Just don’t talk to the whackers.
I attended an event today where I caught up with several old friends, a number of whom are current or former RAN or DSTO staff in Adelaide.
Serving people could not comment, but several retirees expressed concerns about AUKUS, its high cost, and its dubious means of introduction and delivery.
Nobody believed the story about why French subs were dismissed, and most put the real reasons down to Anglophile navy top brass, egotism (we have to have the best!), and inter-service rivalry (this way the navy gets to be top dog). Lobbying was also mentioned as a big part of the problem.
Several expressed skepticism that SSN AUKUS subs would ever be delivered, and saw it as a lost decade.
Fess
Yep. The ‘rainbow’ colours may well excite some, but it don’t play well in Haldon st, Lakemba.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 7:43 pm
LVT
The fireman’s problem was that once you meet him, you would never vote for him. Fong Lim only has 5000 electors, so it is very easy to be unelectable.
-_________________________
a mere hurdle of media management.
Imagine the fireman leading troubled indigenous youth in compulsory calisthenics outside the NT Parliament, would have been an enormous vote winner.
Socratessays:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 7:58 pm
I attended an event today where I caught up with several old friends, a number of whom are current or former RAN or DSTO staff in Adelaide.
Serving people could not comment, but several retirees expressed concerns about AUKUS, its high cost, and its dubious means of introduction and delivery.
Nobody believed the story about why French subs were dismissed, and most put the real reasons down to Anglophile navy top brass, egotism (we have to have the best!), and inter-service rivalry (this way the navy gets to be top dog).
Several expressed skepticism that SSN AUKUS subs would ever be delivered, and saw it as a lost decade.
__________________________
Scorates, you know this kind of defeatist talk in wartime would have you as a minimum arrested and possibly shot as a defeatist / agent provocateur.
Egyptian policeman shot and killed two Israeli tourists in Alexandria.
sprocket_,
‘No to division’ sounds exactly to me like the number one reason to vote ‘Yes’. As in, the ‘No’ side is trying to divide us, so that means you need to vote ‘Yes’.
Late swing…
Holdenhillbilly @ #262 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 8:06 pm
Egypt got caught trying to send arms to Russia recently. As observed by sprocket_, Russian milbloggers are supporting Hamas on Telegram. Join the dots.
I find this sort of thing very disturbing about AI. Lack of ability to discriminate:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/10/07/amazon-alexa-news-2020-election-misinformation/
wondering is okeshot country that fire man they seem very close okay he did not get lindsay preselection because Roozendaal David bradbury gave him a seat in nt where he repayed labors loilty buy joining former liberal terry mills short lived party because he could not get a cabenit spot maybi nsw labor machine were corect in aposing him
One of the great advantages for those trying to promote AUKUS is that most of those in the navy and DSTO who know enough about submarines to know why AUKUS is a colossal waste of money are not allowed to say anything about it.
This leaves the way clear for the lobbyists, careerists and political apparatchiks to make up what lies they like knowing most listeners will not know any better.
AUKUS will be Australia’s Maginot Line. We should call it the Morrison Class SSN.
The most recent posts on Rybar, the leading Russian mil-blogger channel on Telegram – authorised by the Kremlin
On the official channel of Kataib Izz ad-Din al-Qassam (military wing of Hamas ), a video of the use of the Shehab kamikaze UAV (a copy of the Iranian Ababil-2 drone) appeared.
Shehabs have been used since 2021 (the Hamas military wing officially confirmed their use only in 2022). The drone can fly 250 km and carry a combat load of up to 30 kg. Two years ago, the presence of such drones came as quite an unpleasant surprise to the Israelis. Now it is the same “horse of war” as many other types of weapons.
#Israel #Palestine
Lebanese Hezbollah continues to troll the Israelis: on the slope of Har Dov (the western spur of Mount Hermon ) a Lebanese flag was hung on a tent. This territory is a constant subject of border disputes between the Israelis and the Lebanese.
There is no continuous fence there, so the Lebanese visit there with enviable regularity, hang flags and cause other disturbances.
So now, in media terms, Hezbollah is engaged in its favorite thing – provoking the Israel Defense Forces.
#Israel #Lebanon
Apparently, yesterday’s attempt to land in the west of Ashkelon from sea and air ended with the expected result: the groups of Palestinians were scattered. But fighting continues in the city (of all the settlements that appeared in the reports, Ashkelon is the largest city).
Now there are reports of aggressive shooting in the city, but it’s already in the east: advancing from the northern border of the Gaza Strip, the Palestinians spotted a captured (or stolen) military vehicle in Maw’akim.
The goal is still the same – to take the Ashkelon prison, multiplying the number of militants ready to fight. From the eastern border of the city and Highway No. 4, along which the militants are advancing, it is about 800 meters.
#Israel #Palestine
But this is shooting at the intersection on Emunim, 3 km south of another large city, Ashdod.
Coordinates: 31.753063, 34.662858
The Israel Defense Forces, apparently, have not yet blocked this section of Highway No. 4 (despite video reports available on the Internet). Therefore, separate groups of militants at high speed, together with the civilian population, are slipping north. From the northern border of the Gaza Strip to this point is 25 km.
And if the area up to the eastern entrance to Ashkelon (13 km of travel) still fits within a war zone, and there is partial control of Palestinian forces there, then Palestinians freely roaming so far to the north is downright criminal negligence and professional incompetence.
#Israel #Palestine
While the polling is depressing news, it’s not like Indigenous people are going to disappear if the result is “No”.
It would suck for them, that’s true, and those of us who are sympathetic to them should do all we can to support them in this difficult time.
But the most important thing to do is to come up with a new plan to close the gap. If the referendum fails, come up with a new plan.
And, at the very least, if that’s the case, most people can look at Anthony Albanese and say “He does what he says”. He promised this referendum and he carried it out, despite calls from his allies and opponents to call it off. That should be the number one virtue a politician could have.
”AUKUS will be Australia’s Maginot Line. We should call it the Morrison Class SSN.”
By the time the things are delivered everyone will have forgotten who Morrison was…
Ukraine has come out in support of Israel, condemning the Palestinians for fighting back attack against their illegal occupiers and oppressors. The hypocrisy is jaw dropping.
Ukraine will do or say anything to make themselves appear more western. They even changed their Christmas Day to make themselves appear more like the west and less like their Eastern Orthodox heritage.
It’s a pity the Palestinians can’t just make themselves look more white.
By the time the things are delivered everyone will have forgotten who Morrison was…
_______________
We are trying very hard !
I think Ukraine are well within their moral rights to be against the side that are reportedly murdering and kidnapping civilians.
While the Israel-Palestine conflict over time has both sides being murky in morality, in this case, such an outrageously aggressive move to target civilians cannot be defended.
Hamas is not Palestine.
“Will you, won’t you….”
“Will you legislate a Voice, Albo?????”. I’m sick of another example of the media’s creating artificial headlines which only play into Dutton’s hands.
An issue yes, a question worth asking, yes, needing answering. And it has been, many times. As often as it’s been brought up. But here we go again.
https://youtu.be/SMSQXWfs0mY?si=pxPKAOqUXEYHKiax
An interesting conversation about American politics between Rick Wilson and Bill Clinton’s former political adviser.
I believe that one thing the constant critics of AUKUS are failing to realise is that, like democracy, it is better than any of the alternatives. Nitpicking is essentially meaningless, when the meta perspective from 30000 feet is that it is necessary if you are considering what we need to prepare for in the future.
Large overdose Palmer and other NO ads spoiling the cricket viewing. Needs a YES ad saying “if you don’t like negativity messing up your cricket viewing, vote YES to send them a message”.
Cat
I think that depends what alternative AUKUS is compared to. Compared to doing nothing it is marginally better (although we are doing virtually nothing for the next decade).
Compared to doing something more immediate and efficient, AUKUS is far from the best alternative.
AUKUS allows government to spend less in the short term, while still looking tough on defence to the right wing voters.
Rainmansays:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 8:32 pm
Ukraine has come out in support of Israel, condemning the Palestinians for fighting back attack against their illegal occupiers and oppressors. The hypocrisy is jaw dropping.
Ukraine will do or say anything to make themselves appear more western. They even changed their Christmas Day to make themselves appear more like the west and less like their Eastern Orthodox heritage.
It’s a pity the Palestinians can’t just make themselves look more white.
———————-
If Hamas were attacking military and government assets they might get some support but they have chosen to rape and murder women and children.
Spencesays:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 9:15 pm
Large overdose Palmer and other NO ads spoiling the cricket viewing. Needs a YES ad saying “if you don’t like negativity messing up your cricket viewing, vote YES to send them a message”.
———–
For some reason the yes campaign has not run ads during live sport.
Socrates says:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 7:58 pm
I attended an event today where I caught up with several old friends, a number of whom are current or former RAN or DSTO staff in Adelaide.
Serving people could not comment, but several retirees expressed concerns about AUKUS, its high cost, and its dubious means of introduction and delivery.
Nobody believed the story about why French subs were dismissed, and most put the real reasons down to Anglophile navy top brass, egotism (we have to have the best!), and inter-service rivalry (this way the navy gets to be top dog). Lobbying was also mentioned as a big part of the problem.
Several expressed skepticism that SSN AUKUS subs would ever be delivered, and saw it as a lost decade.
——————
Hard to disagree with that overall sentiment.
Gaza is a small reservation into which two million Palestinians have been herded and caged; the most tightly populated sliver of land on the planet, where the descendants of ethnically cleansed refugees have lived blockaded by land, air and sea for twenty years. A million children have grown up inside the walls of a deliberately malnourished ghetto, forbidden to leave and surrounded by armed checkpoints, as their prison guards truck in the barest minimum of calories calculated to prevent mass starvation, blocking luxuries such as fruit, shoes, shampoo, medicine, building materials and batteries; an open-air prison where two million prisoners, half children, have been placed behind walls to fester in abject poverty and rampant anemia with intermittent electricity and a water supply unfit for human consumption, for twenty years, rats in a cage, fish in a barrel, a boot stamping on a human face forever
Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 8:06 pm
Egyptian policeman shot and killed two Israeli tourists in Alexandria.
———————
Clearly this is quickly reaching a boiling point across the entire ME.
Alexandria is an old stomping ground of mine and would normally be referred to as somewhat liberal, relatively speaking.
Watermelonsays:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 9:28 pm
Gaza is a small reservation into which two million Palestinians have been herded and caged; the most tightly populated sliver of land on the planet, where the descendants of ethnically cleansed refugees have lived blockaded by land, air and sea for twenty years. A million children have grown up inside the walls of a deliberately malnourished ghetto, forbidden to leave and surrounded by armed checkpoints, as their prison guards truck in the barest minimum of calories calculated to prevent mass starvation, blocking luxuries such as fruit, shoes, shampoo, medicine, building materials and batteries; an open-air prison where two million prisoners, half children, have been placed behind walls to fester in abject poverty and rampant anemia with intermittent electricity and a water supply unfit for human consumption, for twenty years, rats in a cage, a boot stamping on a human face forever
——————
They have a border with Egypt so they are not totally blocked off and international law does not make excuses for raping and murdering unarmed women and children.
Support for the Indigenous voice to parliament and executive government has weakened further heading into the final week of the campaign, with just a third of voters now backing the proposed constitutional change amid a critical loss of support among younger voters.
The Albanese government has also suffered electorally, with Labor’s primary vote slipping to its lowest level since the election and Anthony Albanese’s personal approval rating dipping to a new low as his lead over Liberal leader Peter Dutton narrows to its tightest margin.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows support for the voice falling a further two points in the past fortnight to 34 per cent as Australians prepare to cast their vote this coming weekend.
The latest Newspoll survey of 1225 voters nationally, taken between October 3 and October 6 – a two-week gap since the previous poll – shows a concurrent decline in support for the government and Mr Albanese, with cost-of-living pressures also showing no sign of easing.
Labor’s primary vote fell a point to 34 per cent – its lowest level since the election result, which delivered it victory on a primary vote of 32.6 per cent. It is now four points down since mid-June.
Mr Albanese has also suffered a decline in personal support, with his approval rating dipping back into negative territory for the second time. Satisfaction with his performance dropped two points to 45 per cent – the lowest level recorded for Mr Albanese since becoming prime minister.
Those dissatisfied with the job he was doing as leader rose two points to 46 per cent, delivering a net negative satisfaction rating of minus one.
The Coalition’s primary vote was unchanged at 36 per cent which remains consistent with its election result but is five points up on its lowest level recorded in this electoral cycle.
However, the gap has narrowed in the head-to-head contest between the two rivals, with Mr Albanese’s lead reducing to the tightest margin since the election at 17 points.
Mr Dutton approval ratings recovered from a record low in the last survey, rising five points to 37 per cent with a two-point fall in those dissatisfied with him to 50 per cent. He remains firmly in negative territory on minus 13.
The Greens primary vote lifted a point to 12 per cent in line with its election result. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation fell a point to 5 per cent while other minor parties and independents lifted two points to 13 per cent. This was still down, however, on the 14.5 per cent of the vote secured among this group at the last election.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Flabors-stocks-fall-as-support-for-the-indigenous-voice-hits-new-low%2Fnews-story%2F598ba848d91a9954766affb18fedee2c&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-groupb-test-noscore&V21spcbehaviour=append
Socrates @ #280 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 9:18 pm
That’s quite a few Panglossian statements there, Soc. You sound as if you’re trying to justify your pov to yourself! Not particularly laying out a case that will convince me.
‘Compared to doing nothing it is marginally better’. Hmm, talk about damning with faint praise! I aver to say that it is a whole lot better than doing nothing. Then you say, (compared to doing nothing for the next decade)’. Well, thank you Coalition governments of the last decade …who did nothing. Except tear up the French Diesel Sub contract and complain about canoe building. I think that, if you weren’t so jaundiced against AUKUS in general, you might concede that a government who has been in power for < 2 years may have had to get up to speed first, which you are characterising as doing nothing. And it actually looks to me like they are initiating a thoroughgoing review and reorientation of all of Defence's programs. Even if it is all too slow for your liking, at least there is now a clear direction that we are heading in.
Then you caustically say that, 'this allows the government to spend less in the short term'. Well, duh, of course! And maybe there's a very good reason for that that you just can't bring yourself to acknowledge? Something along the metaphorical lines of turning the ship around before it can go full steam ahead will take time.
Finally, the juvenile spit that the government is 'trying to look tough on defence to the right wing voters'. Well, how's this for a novel idea? The government is trying to build a capable Defence Force, with appropriate hardware and materiel, for the defense of Australia? It's a novel idea, I know, but one I think you should consider.
Analysis | Netanyahu’s Recklessness Has Brought War Upon Israel
Hamas, a ‘small’ terror organization exposed the nakedness of Israel, a regional superpower. While the failure is first and foremost that of the Military Intelligence and the Shin Bet security service, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be able to wash his hands of this travesty.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-08/ty-article/.premium/netanyahus-recklessness-has-brought-war-upon-israel/0000018b-0b9f-dae9-adcb-abbf348c0000
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
·
7m
#Newspoll Indigenous Voice Referendum: Yes 34 (-2) No 58 (+2) #auspol
The Egyptian – Gaza border is closed to all trade and there is limited movement of people. Gaza imports can only come through Israel
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 9:45 pm
The Egyptian – Gaza border is closed to all trade and there is limited movement of people. Gaza imports can only come through Israel
—————————–
if that border was open Gaza could ignore Israel.
Intersting week ahead. Either Newspoll is going to be an outlier and the new owners of the brand lose a lot of credibility, or this thing is turning into a disaster for Albo
Am I being blocked William? My last post basically just said the same as what Watermelon said above.
Nice one, holdenhillbilly, many thanks
Watermelon is smart enough not to invoke the “final solution”.
Socrates – and others – have laid out very detailed cases wrt to AUKUS, but C@t either hasn’t read those posts, or chooses to be wilfully obtuse. Hence this type of vignette:
“ That’s quite a few Panglossian statements there, Soc. You sound as if you’re trying to justify your pov to yourself! Not particularly laying out a case that will convince me.”
But don’t anyone ever call her out over her wilful stupidity or ‘warmongering adjacent’ POVs and general paranoia. Oh, no.
AUKUS – every aspect – is a trillion dollar dumpster fire that makes Australia – and the region – less safe. … but don’t just take it from me. … Google it.
Edited to add: I’m unashamadly jaundiced against AUKUS & have been since day one. Socrates however was one of its biggest initial supporters on this blog, but has come to a different conclusion based on the available evidence.
Ok William. I’m sorry. But just so other posters don’t confuse the context, I did not use that term in any way to be applied about the Jewish people. I was actually implying that some extreme right wing Israeli politicians might feel that way about the Palestinians.
Still, I won’t do it again.
Looks like the Australian Cricketers are being inspired by the Wallabies performance at the World Cup.
Cat
We’ll have to agree to disagree on this one. I’m not going to try to convince you of anything, just as you can’t read my mind for motive.
I was just posting what I experienced today. I didn’t plan it. Adelaide is a small world, the engineering field here even more so. I regularly run into people who know something about these topics. AUKUS came up. Its the elephant in the room here.
I never said Labor created this mess. Equally, Labor hasn’t fixed it yet either.
Marles has not yet laid out a clear plan. The cuts have been identified, but not what replaces them in the navy. That is still up to the second review, which was delivered last week, but will not be released for five months. I hope its good.
Seems 53-47 from primaries. I bet government can’t wait for this referendum to be over.
Mexican
I understand the border is effectively closed by an Israeli buffer zone, of a 100 metres or so, between Gaza and Egypt