Federally relevant developments of note from the past week that do not specifically relate to the Indigenous Voice referendum:
• As noted as a post-script to the Indigenous Voice post, YouGov has entered the polling game independently of its former status as the pollster behind Newspoll. Its debut federal voting intention result had Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday before last from a sample of 1563.
• This week’s Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 32.5%, Coalition 37.5% and Greens 13%.
• With the close of nominations on Wednesday, ten candidates came forward for the preselection to fill Marise Payne’s Liberal Senate vacancy in New South Wales. The long-presumed front-runner, former state government minister Andrew Constance, faces two high-profile late starters in Zed Seselja, who lost his ACT Senate seat to David Pocock at the last election, and Dave Sharma, who lost Wentworth to Allegra Spender. Max Maddison of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that a two-horse race is anticipated between Constance and Seselja, who are respectively likely to dominate the moderate and conservative blocs. Seselja is one of a number of conservatives to take the field following Nyunggai Warren Mundine’s withdrawal, the others including Monica Tudehope, former policy director to Dominic Perrottet, and Jess Collins, researcher for the Lowy Institute. Also in the field are Lou Amato, a former state upper house member; James Brown, Space Industry Association chief executive; and lawyers Ishita Sethi and Pallavi Sinha. UPDATE: Alexi Demaitriadi of The Australian further reports that the missing name is solicitor Nimalan Rutnam; that moderate support is solid behind Constance, leaving Sharma with no chance; and that “insiders with knowledge of the situation cautioned against underestimating Mr Amato’s numbers”. The vote will take place on November 26.
• The process for the federal redistribution in New South Wales, necessitated by its loss of a seat in the regular mid-term entitlement calculation, has advanced with the setting of October 27 as the deadline for suggestions and the publication of the enrolment data that will be used to make the determination. The latter and its implications have been examined by Antony Green and Ben Raue.
Tasmania, our most progressive state
“ Groom a boomer to vote yes”
You better tell Rewi
Previous battles between Hamas/PLO fighters and the IDF resulting in Israel entering Gaza have resulted in deadly pitched battles with many losses on both sides due to the urban warfare environment. This situation will be no different only worse given the large number of hostages.
The planning displayed so far by Hamas in attack would, I imagine, be replicated for the defence of Gaza. Every door, window, rock and piece of rubbish will likely be a potential RSB/IED and alleys, and streets will form deadly funnels for attacking IDF forces. Even if Hamas are pushed back within their boundaries today, this ugly war is very far from over.
Fubar: “Israel has not been deliberately targeting civilians nor kidnapping them. ”
Of course they have.
https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/06/israel-opt-civilian-deaths-and-extensive-destruction-in-latest-gaza-offensive-highlight-human-toll-of-apartheid/
FUBAR says:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 6:30 pm
…
Did they just randomly kill 200 innocent Palestinians who were doing nothing but going about their daily lives?
…’
——————–
In some cases armed ‘settlers’ do just that.
Socrates,
The question of Tank kills isn’t necessarily about the loss of the tank but whether the crew survived. In Ukraine at least 5 Leo 2s and 1 Challenger have been destroyed- without the loss of life of any crew members. That’s why the Ukrainians love the Bushmaster. A number have been destroyed but with very low casualty rates. Verification of Ukrainian casualty claims are difficult but I trust the sources that I have that information from. Apart from blue on blue kills that is the first combat loss of a Challenger 1 or 2. The Turks lost a few Leo 2s in Syria but their employment of them was tactically very poor.
There are a range of options for combating drone operations but resources are always constrained and the fog of war means shit happens.
The idea that loss of armoured vehicles in combat should be alarming is ridiculous. Unfortunately the Gulf Wars generated a public perception that committing armours vehicles to a conflict should be very low vehicle kills situation.
‘Socrates says:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 6:31 pm
There are some interesting tweets from Gaza showing late model fully equipped Israeli tanks (Merkava 4s) being taken out by cheap drones.
This one is suggesting seriously that any army that can’t defend vs drones is now vulnerable. Are we still sure buying more Abrams is a good idea?
https://twitter.com/MidOfficer/status/1710654991013150836‘
——————————————————
Interesting but not convincing AVs, IMO.
I would rather have a thousand Merkavas in the Gaza v Israel War than none.
Dailykos
Why Hamas Attacked Israel Now?
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/7/2198043/-Why-Hamas-Attacked-Israel-Now?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
1. Hamas wants to show its strength( generic)
2. Hamas wants hostages.(generic)
3. Hamas wants to disrupt Israeli-Saudi Arabia negotiations. (Specific)
4. Hamas wants to mark the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago. (Specific)
Amnesty International has shown itself to not be an impartial group. Their analysis and application of the Law of War is fundamentally flawed.
Where are the ICC Charges? There aren’t any because Israel operates within the rules of the Law of War.
It’s estimated that about 20,000 French civilians were killed by the Allies in the liberation of France. War is an inherently very messy business that isn’t always fair.
Fubar: “Amnesty International has shown itself to not be an impartial group. ”
The rejection of evidence is one of the primary characteristics of people of your ilk. Indeed, it is your inability to process information that defines you. That’s how you’ve been programmed.
fubar: “Allies”
Red herring. Yet another example of your programming. That isn’t your argument. You’re parroting someone else’s.
‘FUBAR says:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 6:51 pm
Amnesty International has shown itself to not be an impartial group. Their analysis and application of the Law of War is fundamentally flawed.
Where are the ICC Charges? There aren’t any because Israel operates within the rules of the Law of War.
It’s estimated that about 20,000 French civilians were killed by the Allies in the liberation of France. War is an inherently very messy business that isn’t always fair.’
———————————
FUBAR’s gish gallops are getting loonier and loonier.
Out: Macarthur
In: FUBAR
🙁
Boringwar
Israel applies the law – unlike their adversaries:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/world/middleeast/israel-amiram-ben-uliel-guilty.html
Fubar you show yourself to be grossly ignorant which is of course your right.
Your binary tribal approach to a complex and nuanced issue blinds you and severely damages your credibility. Best you just hush.
The failure of commenters to adhere to purely Israeli propaganda does not render them as Palestinian apologists. It merely proves that this situation has long and deep seated roots and deserves far more research and understanding than your posts display.
Major crap going on in Israel, none of it good.
Big strategic mistake by Hamas i think to give that bastard Netanyahu something so basic to rally Israelis around, but we are there now. 🙁 How anyone is going to orgainise any kind of cease fire and negotiation out of this i have no idea. 🙁
Interesting the armor losses. From the pics at least 1 full tricked out (Trophy APS) got done by a drone. But yup the crew survived even as it seems the fuel burnt off. Merkava was though, fully designed from the outset to emphasize crew survivability. Huge, basic difference in design parameters as compared to Russian and Russian derived designs.
Where Hamas go from here i dont know. But the Israelis will of a certainty lash out against civilians in Gaza, like they always do, and create the next generation of Palestinians that are willing to die to kill Israelis.
FUBAR says:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 6:51 pm
Amnesty International has shown itself to not be an impartial group. Their analysis and application of the Law of War is fundamentally flawed.
———
More examples of jumping sharks by one so inexpert.
Shellbell @ #202 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 6:32 pm
I know this is a little in jest, but when I moved to Qld I could see the gulf between what politics was like in Tasmania and my new home.
Coming from the state where the conservation movement was born, that inculcated in to large sections of the population that it was ok to vote for progressive conservation parties. That first Labor/Green accord in 1989 did actually change the place, with Bob Brown and Christine Milne in as state parliamentarians. What they learnt there they took on to form the Australian Greens and replaced the Democrats as the balance of power party in the Senate.
Having effectively 100% renewable power from way back in the 1940s/50s (first in 1916) also put a different slant on things, mining was about tin, zinc, silver and gold, not about coal.
I recall when I joined the Greens in Brisbane back in 2007 what a completely different beast they were to the Tasmanian Greens, so city focused and far removed from the front line of conservation activism.
Coming back to Tasmania has been a breath of fresh air, not without its challenges and the rose tinted glasses are certainly off, but I’d rather be in this progressive state than Queensland.
“This one is suggesting seriously that any army that can’t defend vs drones is now vulnerable.”
All armies are already vulnerable to all sorts of weaponry. Infantry use anti-tank missiles can obliterate a tank from 8+ kilometres away depending on the model. Air launched weapons like the Maverick can turn tanks into scrap metal from 25km away.
A drone dropping an RPG warhead is just a question of cost, scale & availability rather than any significantly new threat. Small drones are imo, more impactful on the very small unit scale with infantry attacks on infantry, working as immediate close air support and tactical recon.
Tasmania is the definition of socialism – spending other people’s money getting 185% of their GST.
Only the NT are worse at 400% and aren’t they doing a smashing job of it.
FUBAR
War is an inherently very messy business that isn’t always fair.
Wow. What a pearl of wisdom. It is like sitting at the feet of Winston Churchill. War is messy and unfair. Who knew?
I have the urge to embroider it on a tea towel, so I can never forget it.
FUBAR @ #221 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 7:11 pm
Got an actual nose snort out of me.
The real tragedy was the NT rejecting the fireman.
With the benefit of hindsight it all went downhill from there.
‘FUBAR says:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 6:56 pm
Boringwar
Israel applies the law – unlike their adversaries:
….’
————————————-
Except when armed civilian settlers shoot people up.
‘FUBAR says:
Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 6:47 pm
Socrates,
The question of Tank kills isn’t necessarily about the loss of the tank but whether the crew survived. …’
——————————
Nearly as dopey as the Greens Peace Studies 101 bullshit.
Fubar: “socialism”
Stop using big words you don’t understand.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBXUBYYEHhk
Dopey but what would these guys know?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/01/tanks-west-russia-ukraine-armour/
Pi,
Not a fan of Thatcher?
BK @ #211 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 5:49 pm
Brilliant!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pat-dodson-on-the-comeback-from-cancer-gives-his-voice-to-the-voice-20231006-p5ea7k.html
And maybe just in time to be our next GG? Although Megan Davis would be an excellent choice given her qualifications.
“Israel applies the law – unlike their adversaries:”
Only when it suits them, and a lot of the recent civil unrest in Israel has been about the Right wing of politics there making changes such that they can better ignore the laws they do have. 🙁
I have oft seen it written about Israel that we should support them as they are a democracy with the rule of law. On some important levels, they just aren’t in any actual practical sense. 🙁
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/confusion-over-the-voice-keeps-the-no-vote-in-front-despite-a-late-gain-for-yes-20231005-p5ea45.html
It’s going to be a very sad day on October 15 in my view.
Fubar: “Thatcher”
Red Herring. I was quoting Chomsky on the subject of socialism. Chomsky is arguably the greatest living intellectual. If you’re ignoring what he says on subjects that you want to engage in, you’re shooting yourself in both feet.
You’re coming across as a bit of a loud mouthed dummie.
Confessions
Do you reckon Noel Pearson could put up with all the religious crap that goes with the G-G gig?
And the graph in that article I just linked to shows precisely when the No case gained traction: when the Liberal party announced its formal opposition to the Voice.
I’ve said right from the get go that this is a hard sell in any case, historically impossible without bipartisan support.
And the evidence is in front of us.
Dutton and Littleproud targeted the racists, and they answered the call.
I’m still waiting for some way of separating out the racists from the no voters. All the racists are no voters after all. None of the no voters know how to do it. It’s almost like there’s nothing that separates them.
Israel has long term problems.
To understand the division.
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2016/03/08/israels-religiously-divided-society/
To understand the demographics.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/haredim-are-fastest-growing-population-will-be-16-of-israelis-by-decades-end/
To understand the division over military service.
https://themedialine.org/top-stories/military-service-exemption-bill-threatens-to-further-divide-israel/
To understand the conflict. This is the view expressed by locals when I did some work for secular Jews.
https://www.cejiss.org/water-and-the-palestinian-israeli-conflict
BK:
I don’t think he could put up with the crap generally that goes with the GG. He’s pretty good at calling people’s shit and you just can’t do that when you are the Governor General.
Pi says:
Chomsky is arguably the greatest living intellectual. If you’re ignoring what he says on subjects that you want to engage in, you’re shooting yourself in both feet.
________
A middle of the road Labor stooge championing a libertarian socialist as the GOAT? What would Chomsky say about S3 tax cuts?
Sorry, I don’t speak twerp.
The sample size in Tasmania is going to very small. The best that can be taken from such a small sample size is that there is some division (that is neither side is 100% winning in the state). Although I have tipped Tassie as being the only state to vote Yes.
I am still tipping the overall vote to go about 45-55.
LVT
The fireman’s problem was that once you meet him, you would never vote for him. Fong Lim only has 5000 electors, so it is very easy to be unelectable.
imacca 7pm
Deja vu again in the ME.
I’m surprised Victoria and SA aren’t Yes states. Both have (or will soon have?) their own versions of the Voice, and nobody’s hair has caught fire or homeowners having to pay rent to Aboriginal people.
Looking at the SMH/Resolve polling, YES has a late swing, and SA, NSW and Victoria are within reach to add to the Taswegians already in the bag.
Front what I understand of the ‘ground game’, the YES team has ten times the resources than the NOs – and this may be closer than some are wishing for.
I’m in agreement with the overall result having the Yes vote at 40-45% overall.
While of course I don’t think all No voters are racists, I think it can be considered as a given that those dancing in the streets next week at its expected victory most certainly are.
Of course Chomsky has been against U.S tax cuts since the Reagan era. We can only speculate what he would think about the S3 tax cuts, but I’m guessing he would not approve.
Chomsky endorsed Corbyn. Why are Labor partisans shooting themselves in both feet by not listening to him?
Confessions @ #232 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 7:26 pm
He’s had Non Hodgkin Lymphoma:
Key Points. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma is a disease in which malignant (cancer) cells form in the lymph system. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma can be indolent or aggressive. Older age, being male, and having a weakened immune system can increase the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma.
Though, with treatment, the chances of recovery are pretty good (US stats):
The 5-year survival rate for NHL in the United States is 74%. The survival rates for NHL vary based on several factors. These include the stage and subtype of cancer, a person’s age and general health, and how well the treatment plan works. For stage I NHL, the 5-year relative survival rate is more than 86%.
So, he could conceivably go on to be GG. I’m unsure whether he’d want to. Honestly, I’d pick Ken Wyatt, Mick Gooda or Tom Calma. Younger, less controversial, Indigenous men that would appeal to both sides of politics.
Sprocket_ @ #247 Sunday, October 8th, 2023 – 7:45 pm
I think the ‘No’ campaign have made a strategic mistake with their corflutes too. They are very dark and dingy and it’s hard to read them as you walk by to the polling place.