The Age today brings us one of Resolve Strategic’s bi-monthly results on state voting intention in Victoria (click on the “VIC” button near the top of the page), which combine results from the state over two of its regular monthly national polls for an overall sample of 1047. This one has Labor down two points on the primary vote from the June result to 39%, with the Coalition up two to 28%, the Greens down two to 13% (they were up five last time, and down three the time before), a generic independent category up one to 13% and “others” up one to 7%. This implies a two-party result of something approaching 60-40 in favour of Labor, and compares with election results of Labor 36.7%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 11.5% on the primary vote and 55.0-45.0 on two-party preferred. However, there seems reason to believe this pollster has developed a fairly meaty house bias in favour of Labor.
In other findings, Daniel Andrews’ lead over John Pesutto as preferred premier has narrowed from 49-26 to 44-29. The text of the report (which is not yet available on the website) says Andrews’ “personal likeability ratings – positive views minus negative views” have “tumbled over the winter recess” to a net rating of minus seven, with Pesutto on minus ten. There are two further attitudinal questions, which I’m not sure encompassed both months’ samples or just the most recent. The cancellation of the Commonwealth Games has 35% in favour and 39% opposed, although this provides no indication of how many of those in favour are nonetheless aggrieved with the government for taking the event on in the first place. The ban on gas connections for new homes and developments finds only 30% in favour and 44% opposed.
Other notable state electoral developments:
• I have a guide up for next Saturday’s Warrandyte by-election, and will be running my live results feature on the night beyond. Notwithstanding Labor’s forfeit, the by-election has attracted a big field of twelve candidates, but there is no indication that I am aware of that any of them are likely to trouble Liberal candidate Nicole Werner.
• The state parliamentary Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (minus its former chair) has been conducting its inquiry into last November’s state election, with hearings held last week examining the question of group voting tickets at upper house elections, which only Victoria now retains following their recent abolition in Western Australia. Labor assistant state secretary Cameron Petrie told the inquiry the party was open to abolishing them “in principle”, but Daniel Andrews does not seem enthused, saying critics of the system (or seemingly any other) were “quite heavily motivated by wanting to get more of their people elected”. However, he “did indicate rules could be changed around the conduct of individuals doing deals”, no doubt in reference to the activities of Glenn Druery, which received elevated publicity during the election campaign when a video recording of his discussions was provided to the media.