Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 28, Greens 13 in Victoria

Resolve Strategic’s bi-monthly Victorian poll records a narrowing in Labor’s still overwhelming lead.

The Age today brings us one of Resolve Strategic’s bi-monthly results on state voting intention in Victoria (click on the “VIC” button near the top of the page), which combine results from the state over two of its regular monthly national polls for an overall sample of 1047. This one has Labor down two points on the primary vote from the June result to 39%, with the Coalition up two to 28%, the Greens down two to 13% (they were up five last time, and down three the time before), a generic independent category up one to 13% and “others” up one to 7%. This implies a two-party result of something approaching 60-40 in favour of Labor, and compares with election results of Labor 36.7%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 11.5% on the primary vote and 55.0-45.0 on two-party preferred. However, there seems reason to believe this pollster has developed a fairly meaty house bias in favour of Labor.

In other findings, Daniel Andrews’ lead over John Pesutto as preferred premier has narrowed from 49-26 to 44-29. The text of the report (which is not yet available on the website) says Andrews’ “personal likeability ratings – positive views minus negative views” have “tumbled over the winter recess” to a net rating of minus seven, with Pesutto on minus ten. There are two further attitudinal questions, which I’m not sure encompassed both months’ samples or just the most recent. The cancellation of the Commonwealth Games has 35% in favour and 39% opposed, although this provides no indication of how many of those in favour are nonetheless aggrieved with the government for taking the event on in the first place. The ban on gas connections for new homes and developments finds only 30% in favour and 44% opposed.

Other notable state electoral developments:

• I have a guide up for next Saturday’s Warrandyte by-election, and will be running my live results feature on the night beyond. Notwithstanding Labor’s forfeit, the by-election has attracted a big field of twelve candidates, but there is no indication that I am aware of that any of them are likely to trouble Liberal candidate Nicole Werner.

• The state parliamentary Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (minus its former chair) has been conducting its inquiry into last November’s state election, with hearings held last week examining the question of group voting tickets at upper house elections, which only Victoria now retains following their recent abolition in Western Australia. Labor assistant state secretary Cameron Petrie told the inquiry the party was open to abolishing them “in principle”, but Daniel Andrews does not seem enthused, saying critics of the system (or seemingly any other) were “quite heavily motivated by wanting to get more of their people elected”. However, he “did indicate rules could be changed around the conduct of individuals doing deals”, no doubt in reference to the activities of Glenn Druery, which received elevated publicity during the election campaign when a video recording of his discussions was provided to the media.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

31 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 28, Greens 13 in Victoria”

  1. I do have to laugh at the pro coalition hack Annika Smethurst , thought this was something to gloat about for the media , which is actually showing the media failures
    The findings are contained in a survey by Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for The Age, which reveals the state government’s primary vote has slipped from 41 per cent to 39 since June.

    and this ,
    Over July and August, the Coalition recorded a rare two-point boost, appearing to capitalise on a chaotic few months for Labor, which included the cancellation of the Commonwealth Games, the release of an anti-corruption report and the resignation of a Labor MP over assault allegations.

    The Coalition’s primary vote is now 28 per cent, up from 26 per cent in June, but still 6 percentage points lower than the Coalition’s 34 per cent primary record at the November election.

  2. Good results for Vic Labor. Even with Resolve’s house effect results are still very good. Commonwealth games cancellation is a non issue in voter land. 3rd term government with same party in power federally and tougher than usual budget and still pulling landslide figures.

  3. I note in passing that most of the changes reported, including 2PP votes and major party primaries, are within the margin of error (3% for a sample size of 1047).

  4. “However, there seems reason to believe this pollster has developed a fairly meaty house bias in favour of Labor.”

    Hi William, could you please elaborate on this? At the State election Resolve was the pollster that most understated the Labor 2PP and they also went mildly under at the Federal election. I do think their previous Fed poll was a pro Labor outlier (and the most recent a correction rather than the swing back against Labor it is being interpreted as) but what’s the evidence they have a pro Labor house effect? Particularly without Newspoll in the field there’s not much to compare it to at the moment (I mean, Morgan?)

  5. @Scott: Yeah, “The Coalition’s primary vote is now 28 per cent, up from 26 per cent in June, but still 6 percentage points lower than the Coalition’s 34 per cent primary record at the November election.” says it all doesn’t it. The Coalition is still miles worse than it was at a historic drubbing of an election and major newspaper political editors are trying to sell this as Andrews in trouble. They can’t see their utterly rabid pursuit of Andrews is exactly what lets him treat journos with contempt.

  6. The AFR is an absolute joke. I don’t know anyone who reads it, conservative or progressive. How does it stay in business? It’s editor acts as of he is a Liberal MP.

  7. The herald sun and the age together with AFR and macro business devote so much column inches bagging the vic govt. yet. Here we are.

    And they tried a gotcha on a supposed branch stacking drama in Lily Dambrosio’s part of the world. Apparently two deceased names appeared on membership forms. The media could not actually explain what the alleged crime was and who did. But somehow Lily Dambrosio was in the frame. Cray cray stuff.


  8. Smethurst: great result for the LNP! They are only 20% behind Chairman Dan in Danistan!

    How about some actual reporting rather than Costello inspired barracking. Too much to ask?

    I’m a green with obvious Labor leanings, but seriously this is ridiculous. There is no viable alternative and the media have forgotten they are the fourth estate. Where is the analysis? All I see is spin.

    A 2% decrease is diabolical for Labor . A 2% gain for the LNP is the long awaited messianic arrival. Hint: Google margin of error.

    There is a by election this weekend. The alp are not running a candidate in a blatant tactical move (Labor can’t win and then hold the seat long term, and the libs have pre-selected a bigger thorn for the LNP than she is set to replace) and yet I can predict the headlines now:

    Momentum has shifted. Dan doomed. Alp on the ropes after historic drop in primary vote.

    Anything short of 70:30 2cp lnp v greens is bad for the libs. If the greens don’t make the 2pp that is a disaster for them.

    Exciting times in an election that has not caught the public attention.

  9. And the attempts to promote comm games 2026 being held in qld, (cos Victoria is mean) by the likes of Gina Reinhardt is also a big fat joke.

    Not that she is going to fund it.

    She is currently in court fighting against 3 of her children who claim she dudded them their rightful inheritance by grandad.

    Somehow she thinks this is a winning distraction,

    Horrible people abound.

  10. Commonwealth game cancellation has been a major stuff up. The Andrews government main selling point has been is they have been building things that are needed (road & rail projects, schools, hospital etc). The Comm Games were not needed when the were bid for but by cancelling them the government looks like it can’t be trusted.

    It was a stupid idea to attempt to host the games in multiple locations, especially when the majority of infrastructure still exists in Melbourne from 2006.

    Other than that there is little else going on with the government. There is the branch stacking stuff but really that is internal party corruption which should only annoy the faithful and is inside Spring st stuff. Andrews’ relationship with the Spring St press pack is extremely poor.

    If Dan last only 2 more months in the Job he becomes the 3rd longest serving premier. If he goes to the end of the term he becomes the 2nd longest.

  11. The only statistically significant number mentioned in William’s head article for this thread is the drop in Andrew’s preferred Premier figure by 5%, in which he still holds a thumping lead, as does his Government in voting intention, despite a fall of 2% (within margin of error).

    Yet the Age reports the poll findings in the only part of the report outside the pay wall ss follows:

    ” Andrews plummets into negative territory for first time: poll

    A string of polarising policy announcements and political scandals have wreaked havoc with the premier’s approval ratings.”

    This is obviously a desperate attempt to spin this as a favourable story for the State Opposition. The Age apparently has no more credibility than the Herald Sun.

  12. No one gives a stuff about Commonwealth games. Only people talking about it are already either rabidly anti Andrews or typical opinionated politics junkies, including us and those on comments sections of political stories.

  13. Shanahan levels of spin here from Smethurst.

    All things considered Andrews would be thrilled with these numbers. His internal Labor opponents not so much.

  14. Terrible result for the Victorian government. Instead of being rewarded with a nice four year holiday on the opposition benches at the next election, they are instead on track to win another landslide and will be forced to continue working.

  15. I thought the findings in the land rezoning matter identified Liberal Party identities including former Liberal Party MP’s and candidates

    Not that their affiliations with the Liberal Party were highlighted by media – instead referring to them as Councillors

    Ablett was a case in point, receiving money as described and a former Liberal Party candidate- as with others

    And that the attempts to gain favour with ALP MP’s failed

    Across business, businesses donate to both sides of politics albeit with traditionally more being donated to the Liberal Party

    So it is ok for the Liberals to receive these donations but not the ALP?

    Then you get to Guy and Liberal Party donors including the Gold Medal proprietor – has IBAC ever investigated that?

    Noting the Liberals sooky to IBAC on every matter – that being their only relevance

    Guy even referred himself!!!!

  16. Reasonable words from Max Chandler-Mather:

    … after compromising on all of our initial requests, all we’re asking for is an ongoing and guaranteed direct funding of $2.5 billion for public and genuinely affordable housing and for the Prime Minister to coordinate some kind of cap and freeze on rent increases. Exactly like they did last year for energy prices.

    I know many folks have been in touch with my office curious to know what our plan is on the Housing Australia Future Fund, so I wanted to step out what the past two weeks have been like and what some key upcoming dates are.

    Two weeks ago Labor reintroduced the exact same Housing Australia Future Fund as they did in February. That means they brought back a plan that doesn’t guarantee a cent in housing funding, gambles $10 billion on the stock market, does nothing for renters and will see the housing crisis get worse, just so they have the option for a double dissolution trigger. This bill includes no guarantee of even the $500 million per year.

    … The Greens remain ready to negotiate a plan that invests real money in public housing, coordinates national limits on rent increases and better renters rights.

  17. Herald Sun 17/08
    A former key minister and Daniel Andrews factional ally has landed another plum role, sparking criticism from the opposition over a “jobs for mates” culture within the Victorian government.

    Former health minister Martin Foley has secured a new role as chairman of the Melbourne Arts Precinct Corporation (MAP Co), scoring the retired MP up to $150,000 per year.

    The cushy new role comes less than two months after Mr Foley began in another board position, chair of Alfred Health, with a salary understood to be up to $133,000.
    $283 grand a year for doing stuff all.
    That would be handy.

  18. Taylormade says:
    Thursday, August 17, 2023 at 7:34 pm
    Herald Sun 17/08
    A former key minister and Daniel Andrews factional ally has landed another plum role, sparking criticism from the opposition over a “jobs for mates” culture within the Victorian government.

    Former health minister Martin Foley has secured a new role as chairman of the Melbourne Arts Precinct Corporation (MAP Co), scoring the retired MP up to $150,000 per year.

    The cushy new role comes less than two months after Mr Foley began in another board position, chair of Alfred Health, with a salary understood to be up to $133,000.
    $283 grand a year for doing stuff all.
    That would be handy.

    LOL Taylormade

  19. Hi William, could you please elaborate on this?

    Since the start of June, Resolve Strategic vote has on average had federal Labor leading the Coalition 38.7% to 31.0% on the primary vote compared with Newspoll’s 37.0% to 34.5% and Essential Research’s 33.9% to 33.0%. If Resolve Strategic’s implication of a 5-6% swing to Labor were an accurate read on the situation, I tend to think they would have done better in Fadden. Newspoll performed best in New South Wales and Victoria.

  20. Thanks William.

    If you take out the July Resolve as an outlier (or at least where they were within the margin of error but on the high side of it) the difference from Newspoll wouldn’t be so much though would it? Between the undecideds and the not very good results at the last election it’s harder to make a useful comparison to the Essential figures.

    Resolve’s methods didn’t have a house effect to the ALP at the last State or Federal elections as I noted (actually mildly the other way), so it is curious where such a thing would have come from if it exists.

  21. The Commonwealth Games cancellation settlement comes to $380 million. Expect to hear that figure used to beat over the head of the Andrews’ government from the opposition and the Victorian media. It is one of those “not great not terrible” situations. It works out to be about $60 per capita which in the context of $134 billion net debt is not huge.

    At the press conference this morning, Dan was not looking his best. He was missing the Northface jacket.

  22. BS Fairman

    Yeah and the govt kinda deserve to be reminded of this stuff up.

    Again I agree with the cancellation of this glorified sports event that Canada have already pulled out of for 2030.

    I don’t see why there should be this huge compensation bill for games that no one wants to host. And in fact Victoria only put their hand up cos no one else wanted to do it.

    This is a major stuff up by an otherwise productive govt.

  23. While one would expect the Liberals to win the Warrandyte by-election given the 8.4% 2pp margin over the ALP at 2022 Victorian State election, one wonders where the usual ALP voters will park their primary vote in the absence of any ALP candidate standing in the 26 August by election?
    At last year’s state election the ALP candidate received 33.2% of the primary vote.
    Ideologically, policy-wise the candidate running in Warrandyte on 26 August who would be closest to the ALP would be Tomas Lightbody, Deputy Mayor of Manningham Council, who is standing for the Australian Greens. At the 2022 state election the Australian Greens candidate polled 11.7%.
    The Victorian Socialists are also standing in the Warrandyte by-election – this will be their first time effort in a traditionally Liberal held state seat in the leafy eastern suburbs of Melbourne. However, going on past performances elsewhere the Victorian Socialists will probably only poll a few % in Warrandyte.
    Some usual ALP voters may decide to vote for one of the Independents running in the Warrandyte by-election. Two of these – Ranieri and Menadue, would seem (from their registered How To Vote cards) where they have preferenced the Greens ahead of the Liberals to identify with progressive policies. The so-called “Donkey Vote” of an estimated 1-2% of voters who just number their ballot paper with 1 from the top to the last number at the bottom of the ballot paper will go to the Sustainable Australia Party candidate.
    However, at least 5 of the 12 candidates in the Warrandyte by-election are decidedly on the right wing side of politics – Family First, Freedom, the independents Chou and Tesa – and therefore not likely to gain many votes from erstwhile ALP supporters. However, the right wing Democratic Labour Party may well benefit from their inclusion of the word “Labour” in their party name from some less politically engaged Warrandyte Labor voters.
    With a larger contingent of more right wing candidates running in Warrandyte, it seems likely that the Liberal Party primary vote may well take a hit and drop below their total of 47.3% at last year’s state election. However, the Liberals will benefit from the flow of preferences from the several micro right wing parties and independents.
    The combined ALP/Greens vote in Warrandyte at the 2022 state election totalled 44.9%. If something of this category (or even an increased primary vote for the Australian Greens candidate) could possibly endanger the Liberal Party’s hold on one of their long held seats in eastern Melbourne.

  24. Robert

    The commonwealth games stuff up could cause former ALP voters to give their vote to the liberals this time around. Especially as it will be fresh in their minds.

  25. I’M not sure anyone gives a rat’s about the Commonwealth games.

    Anachronistic festival of colonialism, that it is.

    Now get rid of the Grand Prix and I’ll be a happy camper!

    Not even King Charles is trying to save the games. Just saying. He can afford it.

  26. MABWM

    Agreed. But the compo figure seems a bit rich in the circumstances. Not a happy camper about that.

    The Grand Prix does boost the economy in real tangible ways.

  27. The Victorian tax payer has to cough up $380 million for absolutely nothing. The reports today show that the business case was rushed and fundamentally flawed. Both should cause political heads to roll as it shows fundamental mismanagement. Then adding Shepparton (held by an Independent) and the Latrobe Valley in ( a marginal before the last election) showed politics trumped any public policy. Andrews, Jacinta Allan and Harriet Shing as the relevant ministers have to answer for this colossal cock up.

  28. The only way something interesting will happen in Warrandyte next week is if the Liberals fall below 40% in the Primary Vote.

    Otherwise it’s pretty much a simple changing of MP in a safe seat like Polwarth 2015 was for the Liberals and Niddrie 2012 was for Labor.

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