The Age/Herald fills the Newspoll void with a Resolve Strategic poll on federal politics and the Indigenous Voice, and while it continues to record Labor well ahead, the margin is easily narrowest from this pollster since the election. Labor is down two from last month’s poll on the primary vote to 37%, with the Coalition up three to 33%. Labor’s previous narrowest lead out of twelve polls was seven points in two polls from September and October last year. The Greens are steady on 11% with One Nation down one to 5%. I make this out to be about 56-44 to Labor based on last election preferences, compared with around 58.5-41.5 in the last poll.
The narrowing is reflected in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, with approval down seven to 44% and disapproval up seven to 42%, comparing with his previous weakest numbers of 39% and 32% in September last year. Peter Dutton is steady on 31% and down three to 47%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 51-21 to 46-25. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.
The poll records no respite in the decline in support for the Indigenous Voice, with the no lead out from 52-48 to 54-46 nationally. State breakdowns that combine this poll with the previous one to produce presentable sample sizes have yes leading 51-49 in Victoria and 55-45 in Tasmania, and trailing 54-46 in New South Wales, 59-41 in Queensland, 56-44 in Western Australia and 54-46 in South Australia.
UPDATE: Further results from the poll published today find 33% rating housing policy important enough to call a double dissolution over, with 35% opposed. Given a choice between the government serving out a full term and an election being held early next year, 54% favoured the former and 20% the latter. I expect we will also have Victorian state voting intention results from Resolve Strategic fairly shortly.