The Age/Herald fills the Newspoll void with a Resolve Strategic poll on federal politics and the Indigenous Voice, and while it continues to record Labor well ahead, the margin is easily narrowest from this pollster since the election. Labor is down two from last month’s poll on the primary vote to 37%, with the Coalition up three to 33%. Labor’s previous narrowest lead out of twelve polls was seven points in two polls from September and October last year. The Greens are steady on 11% with One Nation down one to 5%. I make this out to be about 56-44 to Labor based on last election preferences, compared with around 58.5-41.5 in the last poll.
The narrowing is reflected in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, with approval down seven to 44% and disapproval up seven to 42%, comparing with his previous weakest numbers of 39% and 32% in September last year. Peter Dutton is steady on 31% and down three to 47%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 51-21 to 46-25. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.
The poll records no respite in the decline in support for the Indigenous Voice, with the no lead out from 52-48 to 54-46 nationally. State breakdowns that combine this poll with the previous one to produce presentable sample sizes have yes leading 51-49 in Victoria and 55-45 in Tasmania, and trailing 54-46 in New South Wales, 59-41 in Queensland, 56-44 in Western Australia and 54-46 in South Australia.
UPDATE: Further results from the poll published today find 33% rating housing policy important enough to call a double dissolution over, with 35% opposed. Given a choice between the government serving out a full term and an election being held early next year, 54% favoured the former and 20% the latter. I expect we will also have Victorian state voting intention results from Resolve Strategic fairly shortly.
The polling trend is running against the Yes vote, and stunts like yesterday’s Albanese/Alan Joyce event will not help to address the slide in its support.
Always with the naysaying about the ‘Yes’ side, Evan. Never with any commentary about the deceitful tactics of the ‘No’ case. Which are legion. And it’s all you can ever talk about these days.
It seems the honey moon still going for Labor , no sign of decline
If Labor primary vote of 37% ( swing to 4.4%) and lib/nats combined primary vote of 33% (swing against 2.7%) occurred on federal election day
Labor 85+ seats in the house of reps
Lib/nats 52 or below in the house of reps
No matter how much the corrupt media , tries to score political points for the lib/nats on the referendum vote which is suppose to be non-political
It is not going to the help the lib/nats combined primary vote to be competitive
“Albanese’s … approval down seven to 44% and disapproval up seven to 42%”
Ouch!
The lib/nats and thier media propaganda media units prediction of doom there will be state and nationwide blackouts did not occur during winter this year
From previous thread:
“We say the evidence that fraud was perpetuated by Gina on her children is overwhelming”
— Christopher Withers SC, to “a complex trial over mining assets and royalties”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/14/gina-rinehart-defrauded-her-children-over-iron-ore-assets-lawyer-alleges-in-court-battle
Oliver Sutton says:
Tuesday, August 15, 2023 at 6:25 am
“Albanese’s … approval down seven to 44% and disapproval up seven to 42%”
Ouch!
————————–
This is even bigger ouch for the lib/nats and their propaganda media units
Peter Dutton is steady on 31% and down three to 47%
They would have been hoping for much better than that
Jacinta Price is right on the money about these ridiculous, ‘Welcome to Country’ ceremonies. Why do I have to be welcomed to my own country? These ceremonies imply I’m a visitor here. Mine is the only name on my property title. If the ‘stolen land’ crowd really believe it then why don’t they sign over THEIR properties to the local indigenous people?
And they are not done as a gesture of goodwill. It’s a fee for service arrangement.
SLOVENIA THANKS UKRAINE FOR FLOOD DISASTER ASSISTANCE
“Tanja Fajon, Foreign Minister of Slovenia, has visited the locations where Ukrainian rescue workers came to help after the floods.
Source: This was reported by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, European Pravda writes.
Details: Fajon visited the riverbed of Savinja where Ukrainian emergency workers are operating. They have to change the direction of the channel, and then they will be engaged in shore fortification from the side of the settlement, where there are residential buildings.
Quote: “The country, which is in a very difficult situation, found an opportunity to come to help, for which Slovenia is very grateful to Ukraine,” Fajon said.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/14/7415570/
Ukraine also sent help to Türkiye after its devastating earthquake.
Thanks WB
“ I make this out to be about 56-44 to Labor based on last election preferences”
It’s hard not to be pretty happy with this result in the context of the times.
I wonder how Dutton will celebrate his big ‘No’ case win?
JCB: “… These ceremonies imply I’m a visitor here. Mine is the only name on my property title….”
=================
These ceremonies are happening on your property? That probably would be inconvenient.
I rand Qantas corporate yesterday in protest against their decision to back the racist ‘Voice’. By the tone of the poor receptionist, I wasn’t the only one.
So now it’s any airline except Qantas. And that includes Lion Air, the most unsafe airline in the world.
Jeremy: Welcome to Country, smoking ceremonies – all overdone, to the point that they have lost any meaning or mystique.
Oh, and if pointing out the polling trend in the Voice debate is uncomfortable for some in this group, so be it. Some of those voting No are Labor supporters by the way.
TROUBLING PETROL STATION EXPLOSIONS IN RUSSIA – DEAD, WOUNDED
“Explosions and fires were reported on Aug. 14 at an oil field in western Siberia and at a gas station in Russia’s Republic of Dagestan, Russian state media reported.
An explosion occurred at the Talinskoye oil field in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug in western Siberia, killing at least two people and injuring five others, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti said.
According to local officials, the explosion was reported at around 10:20 p.m. local time, causing a fire at an area of 100 square meters.
RIA Novosti reported that emergency services had arrived on site to put out the fire. All the injured have been hospitalized and are in serious condition, the news agency added, citing local health officials.
Another explosion was reported on the same day at a gas station in Makhachkala, Dagestan, head of the regional government Sergey Melikov said.
According to the Russian state news agency TASS, at least five people died and ten more were injured as a result. The explosion caused a fire covering 500 square meters, TASS said.”
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-claim-explosion-fire-at-oil-field/
Distance from Ukraine to Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug: over 1,900 km
Distance from Ukraine to Makhachkala, Dagestan: over 930 km
Casualties: 7 dead, at least 15 wounded.
Great leadership of your country, Putin. All your own work.
THANK YOU, GERMANY!
“Germany plans to provide Ukraine with 5 billion euros ($5.5 billion) in annual military aid until 2027, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said on Aug. 14, Forbes Ukraine reported.
The decision still needs to be approved by the German Parliament, Lindner said during a joint press conference with Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko in Kyiv.
The minister noted that apart from military support, Berlin’s aid for Ukraine has also included humanitarian assistance, support for Ukrainian migrants living in Germany, and the country’s contributions to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Germany’s support amounted to 22 billion euros ($24 billion), Lindner added.”
https://kyivindependent.com/german-minister-germany-plans/
And as Jeremy said above, the optics of that Albo/Joyce event were dreadful for the Yes camp. Funny that those on the left who have denigrated Alan Joyce over his corporate restructures are suddenly his best mates today. I wonder if the PM consulted the TWU before he rocked up to the lovein with AJ?
Regarding the increase in the national NO numbers from 52->54, it looks like the no vote has reached a sort of plateau in Qld.
To me, it looks like the other states like NSW and SA are catching up to Qld.
Evan says:
Tuesday, August 15, 2023 at 6:51 am
And as Jeremy said above, the optics of that Albo/Joyce event were dreadful for the Yes camp. Funny that those on the left who have denigrated Alan Joyce over his corporate restructures are suddenly his best mates today. I wonder if the PM consulted the TWU before he rocked up to the lovein with AJ?
————————–
Its not going to have impact or help the lib/nats come the 2025 federal election
JCB: “… So now it’s any airline except Qantas. And that includes Lion Air, the most unsafe airline in the world.”
====================
Your commitment to not just voting ‘No’, but also to trying to shut down anyone who wants to vote ‘Yes’, is very impressive, actually taking on greater risk to your personal safety like that. Pat on the head for you.
Evan @ #NaN Tuesday, August 15th, 2023 – 6:46 am
Like you? 😐
There’s an almost undisguised glee in voting ‘No’ for some. Like silly little children giving the finger to their teacher. 🙄
Racists punch down. It’s one of their defining characteristics.
No wonder SkyNews has Bogut on speed-dial – he’s a Pizzagate, COVID conspiracy nut.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Bogut#Political_views
Jeremy C Browne @ #NaN Tuesday, August 15th, 2023 – 6:32 am
* It’s not ‘your’ country. It was taken from the original inhabitants by force. Which I guess you approve of.
* Indigenous Australians don’t want to take it back. Your bigoted name can stay on your property title.
* Indigenous Australians simply welcome those who come to their lands. It has zip to do with them wanting it back. For example, when you take your dog to the park, you don’t own it but you are welcome to take it there. No one wants to disallow you from taking your dog there. Most especially the Indigenous people who for close on 65000 years, lived on that land.
* And good riddance to you on Lion Air.
Pueo @ #NaN Tuesday, August 15th, 2023 – 7:06 am
Funny how they never interview the Indigenous ‘Australian basketball legend’? 😐
Tough choices all round.
To persist with the Voice or to defer it? If Albo persists its another 2 months of talking about The Voice which is obviously not helping the Labor vote in a time of cost of living pressures, and to persist to a highly likely defeat in the hope that something changes?
For the Libs a leader with a -14 approval rating. When’s the right time to knife Dutton? A Christmas shanking still seems likely.
We are already an endorsed monarchy.
We are about to become a nation that votes to endorse our genocide too!
Such a great thing for our leader of the oppposition to aspire to.
I will be voting yes.
Nice consequence of Qantas Yes campaign, less likely to get your ears bent by a right wing nutter in the Qantas Lounge.
Almost as good as seeing Sky removed from the screens.
“When’s the right time to knife Dutton? A Christmas shanking still seems likely.”
Lars,
Did you think before choosing to express your thoughts in this way ?
Because some find this so triggering…
Lars there will be no shanking for some time as I look to the future. If there are any changes, it will be after an election.
Obviously a metaphor goll.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
David Crowe writes that Labor has lost support at a time of huge division over its pledge to find a new way to end Indigenous disadvantage.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voice-paradox-starting-to-take-political-toll-on-albanese-20230814-p5dwcb.html
Ever expanding western Sydney has exerted a huge influence in changing Australia society for at least three decades, and now it is shaping up to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the referendum on an Indigenous Voice to parliament, declares the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/western-sydney-may-prove-decisive-in-referendum-result-20230811-p5dvrj.html
Agents of News Corp have been propagating patently false information about The Voice, leaving us all worse off, writes Dr Victoria Fielding.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/murdochs-commentators-poisoning-voice-debate,17804
The Grattan Institute explains why it says that freezing rents would do more harm than good.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-freezing-rents-would-do-more-harm-than-good-20230814-p5dwde.html
Phil Coorey writes that national cabinet will ignore calls for market intervention and focus on ways to remove bureaucratic hurdles to new housing supply, in an approach not dissimilar to that of the housing accord the Rudd government struck with the states 15 years ago.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-homes-in-on-supply-to-fix-to-housing-crisis-20230814-p5dwee
Renters around Australia could benefit from a push at national cabinet to limit rent increases to once a year and ban no-fault evictions in all states and territories. The Guardian says that reforms proposed by the commonwealth would limit the frequency of rent increases and ban evictions without reason in jurisdictions that lag behind in renters’ rights, including Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/15/rental-crisis-national-cabinet-rent-price-hike-pause-no-fault-eviction-ban
Crispin Hull prepares his argument for saying that unless the world acts more drastically on climate change, insurance profits look about as secure as a Central Coast sea-cliff dwelling.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8307514/the-vicious-cycle-that-could-see-the-insurance-system-collapse/?cs=14258
The editorial in the AFR says that having held firm on freeing up the dispensing rules in patients’ interest, Labor should now call out the policy hypocrisy of the pharmacy lobby, pull the trigger and say that if chemists can prescribe, then supermarkets should be able to sell.
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/if-chemists-should-prescribe-let-supermarkets-sell-medicines-20230810-p5dvgs
The AIMN’s Rossleigh takes the mickey out of the way the Coalition so frequently use the term “mum and dad” in making their feeble points.
https://theaimn.com/the-coalition-hate-childless-people/
Recently we have heard the alleged victim in the Bruce Lehrmann case discuss how she felt herself, in effect, defiled again by her treatment by the justice system. Nothing Walter Sofronoff has written in his inquiry into the case could cheer her. Nor would it engender any confidence in future better treatment for any other woman who had been sexually assaulted. Sofronoff has essentially endorsed the status quo, writes Jack Waterford.
https://johnmenadue.com/sofronoff-endorses-the-status-quo-on-rape-cases/
If Lendlease tax whistleblower goes down in court while the Tax Office continues to dither for more than four years enforcing its ‘double dipping’ rules against the property giant, the question could well be asked, why would anybody do the right thing and blow the whistle again? Michael West reports.
https://michaelwest.com.au/not-too-quick-tax-office-dithering-on-lendlease-scam-puts-whistleblowers-at-risk/
The Age tells us that today the Andrews government will table its long-awaited reforms to the state’s bail laws after a coroner said earlier this year that the current system breached human rights.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/bail-reform-timeline-halved-as-new-bill-enters-parliament-20230814-p5dwgk.html
Imports of steel and cement from countries such as China, India and Vietnam could face a “green tariff” aimed at levelling the playing field for Australian producers that are being forced to slash carbon emissions under rules that took effect last month, writes Jacob Greber.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/bowen-s-green-tariff-to-shield-steel-cement-against-carbon-leakage-20230814-p5dwew
It’s looking increasingly likely that the PwC tax scandal will create a situation which regulators have long dreamt of achieving: a break-up of the big four accounting and consulting firms, writes Karen Maley who says they’ll be painfully conscious that their firms could find themselves slugged with Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ new $780 million fine for promoting tax avoidance schemes.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/why-the-big-four-could-decide-to-sever-their-tax-arms-20230814-p5dw8c
Australia Post is offering e-commerce retailers a new next-day delivery service in metro areas that aims to meet consumer demand for speed and certainty at a time when many are closing their wallets. The national postal carrier’s chief executive, Paul Graham, said the “Australia Post Metro” service would help retailers better compete with the fast delivery times from other retail marketplaces such as Amazon, reports Emma Koehn.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/australia-post-recognises-need-for-speed-with-new-parcels-offer-20230814-p5dwc4.html
High numbers of cancelled and delayed bus services in Sydney have been blamed largely on a shortage of drivers, which has prompted a taskforce to recommend a raft of ways to recruit and retain staff ranging from improved toilet facilities to free public transport, explains Matt O’Sullivan.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/driver-shortage-squarely-to-blame-for-cancelled-delayed-bus-services-20230814-p5dw9z.html
One Nation MP Mark Latham has defied party figurehead Pauline Hanson, claiming she acted without following due process when she declared his NSW leadership position vacant. A nice little cage match.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/mark-latham-pushed-out-as-leader-of-one-nation-nsw-division-20230814-p5dwcu.html
New religious discrimination legislation passed through NSW Parliament will likely do more harm than good for the LGBTQ+ community, writes John Card.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/lgbtq-discrimination-bills-keeping-bigotry-alive,17805
According to Paul Krugman, China’s economic problems could make it more dangerous.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-s-economic-problems-could-make-it-more-dangerous-20230814-p5dw7a.html
Donald Trump could be charged with a series of crimes in connection with his alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election result in the US state of Georgia, according to a document briefly published online yesterday. The filing said Trump had been charged by prosecutors with conspiracy to commit forgery, racketeering and false statements.
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/us-court-posts-trump-charges-then-takes-them-down-20230815-p5dwik
Trump has no serious first amendment defence in a court of law, argue prominent lawyers, Laurence H Tribe and Dennis Aftergut.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/14/trump-has-no-serious-first-amendment-defense-in-a-court-of-law-heres-why
A 13-year-old girl in Mississippi gave birth to a boy after she was raped as well as impregnated by a stranger – and then was unable to get an abortion, according to a Time magazine report published yesterday. The mother of the girl, who uses the pseudonym Ashley in the report, was looking to get an abortion for her daughter but was told the closest abortion provider was in Chicago – a drive of more than nine hours from their home in Clarksdale, Mississippi. America is f****d!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/14/mississippi-abortion-ban-girl-raped-gives-birth
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
David Rowe
Alan Moir
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
John Shakespeare
Glen Le Lievre
Andrew Dyson
Mark Knight
Spooner
From the US
Thanks BK
“ Over recent years, KPMG has dominated the defence and national security space in Canberra, but its latest contract win has been controversial as the firm helped design the ASD project and was then allowed to bid for its implementation.
This is known in consulting circles as “marking your own homework”, as KPMG would have gained intimate knowledge of what the ASD upgrade required, having spent the previous two years helping the agency design the project. ”
It’s time to end this once and for all.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-15/spy-agency-caught-up-in-kpmg-scandal/102728874
Lars, the Liberals genuinely have no one else capable of being leader in my view. Dutton has a coalition of right wing media acolytes who will not tolerate him being pulled down and will scream loudly if he is which would be fatal to any possible momentum the Liberals could get towards victory. I still think they have little hope in picking up seats this coming election and they may need to allow the Dutton crew to scratch their itch, lose, and then finally move on from him and his ilk.
Of course one way to get him out before the election would be for the yes campaign to succeed. That would be a sure fire way to end him politically. So if the Liberals want any chance of starting towards long term restoration now they should all vote yes.
As for the yes campaign it is sadly heading one way. I am not sure it can be saved at this point in time. The fact there is still no date is not helping to focus the mind either in my view. Obviously the thinking is announce the date on a tight and narrow run up to it but I am not sure that is going to assist turn it around as the no campaign, easy as it is, just fills the gaps which they are good at as most oppositions to change are.
When is the right time to knife Dutton?
Its an interesting question.
Whilst the surging NO vote seems to be dragging down Albo’s popularity, it doesn’t seem to be boosting Dutton’s.
Let’s see wranslide – Dutton is there because up until now who would want the job?
That will change – post Voice.
I just can’t believe Labor will slow walk to a voice disaster. This isn’t just another referendum – it’s the signature initiative for the term. If somethings not working you change tack – not double down?
Atm I’d say Labor is likely to be a minority govt post next election.
Confessions, I do not find it triggering but I also do not think it assists the yes campaign. It helps Qantas with both its PR and Government relations but that is not the point and should not be. It is whether it can assist the yes campaign and I am afraid I see more negatives than good with it for yes and I do not want that.
It is pretty essy for corps to support yes, the no case is all lies and racism and noone wants to associate with racists and liars.
Yes I realise there is very valid no – this is not enough of a first step.to be taken seriously, but that is not the no case, the no case is steeped in Pauline Hanson lies, children overboard lies and lets kill and torture refugees lies. It is not just the worst of Australia, it is the worst of human nature.
well ifhanson sacked latham because his media mates abandond him seems strange as hanson her self is mostly egnored and one nations other mmps have no public profile
Lars, genuine question, who would you see as a possible Dutton replacement?
Albanese is a political operative and will likely put his self interest ahead of the voice if it becomes clear it is terminal and it could be terminal for him. If, and I do not accept it is at this stage yet, then it might be better for all, including the Government and indigenous Australians, to pull back and come back at it a different way. But only if there is a cold analysis that it is all doomed which I do not accept yet. After an electoral defeat, especially if it is a heavy one, I have genuine fears about indigenous reconciliation and advancement in this country.
Do Joyce and QANTAS believe that people will forget their knuckle dragging work place policies? All they have to do is paint a sign on one of their planes and all will be forgotten and forgiven. Of course, Joyce is ‘progressive.’ What a joke!
Albanese is a political operative and will likely put his self interest ahead of the voice
Actually, it’s Peter Dutton who is doing that, in order to take paint off the PM and Anthony Albanese who is risking his political capital to do the Voice.
A very “ugly” Australia is being exposed by ‘the Voice” .
Colonial Australia is how much of Australia remains, poverty, disproportionate health services, poor education opportunities and lack of employment paths remain foremost in the lives of many Australians, both Indiginous and non-Indiginous.
Just imagine if the Indiginous sector of Australia withdrew their committment to sport !
Just imagine if Indiginous people decided to become proactive !
The national response to “recognition” of First peoples in this country is “fouled” for an eternity regardless of the outcome of the upcoming referendum.
My youngest son is going “bush” again next week, working on housing in remote areas.
Its only a small thing, but in every town and place the team visit, it gives the young people hope, as they see young Indiginous fella giving it a crack .
There exists is a wealth of opinion in Australia and very little “courage’ !
For those types despising “welcome to country”, have a wonder about “singing” foreign songs that takes place at functions at Government House!
Its a “paid” service after all !
I’m really glad that Alan Joyce and QANTAS are getting into the heads of all the mouthy gits when it comes to showing support for the Voice. 😀
The Coalition parties have taken Australia to successive Wars to cement racism, which along with tax cuts which entrench class division has won them election after election
The prosecution of Wars, be in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and wherever else we have engaged in War has not been in the National defence but to cultivate racism
This includes the demonisation of China
The irony is that the immigration policy has entrenched racism, courtesy of the Nazi right wing sentiments which remain across Europe, sentiments introduced to Australia thru immigration
Then you get to the Nation’s First People, their connection to the land relentlessly attacked by the right wing Coalition and their media, evidencing the very worst of the Island Nation which waa named by explorers as Australia
And they feed off Nationalism using a ladies soccer team, a ladies soccer team led by a First Nations person
Ironic, hey?
But that is racism
It delivers political results, witness this polling in Australia promoted by the Coalition and their media replicating the reasons for the Brexit vote in England
It will take generations to cleanse Australia of racism, the only saving grace being that a more pragmatic ALP would increase its majority in the Parliament on this polling, which must grate with media
The purpose of the Referendum question to me is to give an entrenched representation to our First Nations people, such that their voice can at the very least be considered
In an effort to improve their lives and their outcomes entrenching their history and culture – and not just hanging their art in Art Galleries wondering at the fabric and colour of that art
Last Resolve numbers for Labor were a frankly unbelievable lead so this feels more like a reversion to the correct position than an actual drop. Media narratives acting as if every poll has no margin of error and the movement between polls is holy writ (and no other polls exist) are irritating.
Should have left the yesterday’s post as the open thread for the ongoing PB civil war to continue there.
Morning all. I draw a distinction in what I believe about this article.
“ David Crowe writes that Labor has lost support at a time of huge division over its pledge to find a new way to end Indigenous disadvantage.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voice-paradox-starting-to-take-political-toll-on-albanese-20230814-p5dwcb.html
The Voice campaign is struggling as the current Resolve poll shows. Yet the 2pp result from that same poll is 56/44, still a thumping Labor win. So Labor has not lost support. Personally I’m still glad Albo stuck to his promise and proceeded with the Voice campaign, even if it has exposed all that is ugly in right wing politics.