No news is no news (open thread)

Newspoll on hiatus, plus not much else to relate.

Four weeks now without a fresh Newspoll result from The Australian, making it clear that recent disruptions at YouGov have caused it to be suspended for the time being. This comes after Campbell White, head of YouGov Asia-Pacific’s public affairs and polling unit, and Simon Levy, its senior research manager, left the company to go it alone. It would thus seem that Newspoll will be on hiatus until either YouGov gets its house in order or The Australian finds someone else to conduct it. We are about due for a new Resolve Strategic poll from Nine Newspapers, which should probably be along tomorrow this so, likely to be followed one of its bi-monthly results on state voting intention in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

422 comments on “No news is no news (open thread)”

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  1. Cronus / Lars

    “ I would say the Russians could easily mobilise another 300,000 men in the next 6 months. Ukraine is already fully mobilised – it doesnt have another 300,000 to mobilise.”

    I don’t think this is right. Ukraine has mobilised most of its pre war reserves by now but both sides still have large populations with young people reaching military service age each year. New recruits will keep coming on both sides, depending how quickly they can be trained.

    Ukraine has a younger population than Russia, whose population is 2.5 times bigger. Let us say Russia’s recruiting age population is twice as big. But many Russians are avoiding military service and Putin is avoiding recruiting ethnic Russians, whereas Ukrainian recruiting is a matter of national survival. So we have read Ukraine is outnumbered in tanks, aircraft, artillery and ships, but not soldiers.

    For these and other reasons I discussed with Dr Doolittle a few nights ago, I think Russia now has zero prospect of defeating Ukraine in the battlefield or even wearing it down in a war of attrition. Russia cannot beat Ukraine militarily. I think that is why it resorts to economics and propaganda with the global south.

    Unfortunately though Ukraine does not have superiority in aircraft, tanks or artillery that it needs to kick Russia out. So I think we are stuck with a stalemate. Ukraine might slowly push Russia back, but it will take years.

  2. A final thought (for tonight) on Ukraine. If there is no sign of any quick advance then Australia should tailor support accordingly.

    Long wars are tests of logistics and morale more than weapons and tactics. Australia should keep sending Ukraine Bushmasters, trucks and ammo, not fighters and tanks.

  3. Confessions says:
    Monday, August 14, 2023 at 8:29 pm
    Whats the bludger view on the Qantas ‘yes’ announcement today. I genuinely think it will backfire.

    1. Qantas is joining a long list of corporate announcements in favour of the Voice.
    2. Most people won’t give it a second thought.
    3. It will be forgotten by the end of the week, if it was even remembered in the first place.

    Asha says:
    Monday, August 14, 2023 at 8:38 pm
    As someone who hates everything that Qantas has become… I agree with Confessions.
    I don’t think most people are that stupid that they would not wonder why an Icon of Australian
    industry/business has decided that it would ask not only it’s employees, but the Australian voting public, to vote YES in the upcoming referendum.
    Makes me proud to be a Queenslander, where Qantas started, to think that they are supporting the YES vote.
    At this stage I’m saying the Voice will get up.

  4. RP 10:45pm

    Thanks. Avoiding debates over AUKUS, subs and France, there is a political/ governmental need to reform large parts of defence, especially procurement. They need more in-house technical skills, and not just in nuclear propulsion.

    Labor also needs to insist on more transparent reporting of cost and progress from defence. Otherwise nobody can tell when a project is failing till its too late. This has nothing to do with military security. All the supply prices of most of the US equipment we order is public via reporting to US Congress.

  5. What is Georgia’s RICO Act?

    Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has a track record of using RICO charges in unconventional ways to achieve convictions.

    RICO stands for Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations. The RICO Act was passed in the Georgia General Assembly in 1980 and is used to prove that a business was being used for illegal means.

  6. Axios:
    Why Georgia’s case against Trump could be so damaging

    3. While the federal judiciary — and New York courts — are averse to televising criminal proceedings, Georgia courts are more transparent, Kreis notes.

    Georgia may end up being the only case that is broadcast to the world, potentially giving the public a better chance to digest the evidence — which could be politically damning for Trump.
    Between the lines: Willis is considered a RICO expert who successfully prosecuted a large criminal case over a test cheating scandal in the Atlanta Public School System in 2015.

    She’s also using the law to prosecute gang cases, including one centered on Atlanta rapper Young Thug.

  7. CNN:
    Georgia prosecutors have messages showing Trump’s team is behind voting system breach

    Atlanta-area prosecutors investigating efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia are in possession of text messages and emails directly connecting members of Donald Trump’s legal team to the early January 2021 voting system breach in Coffee County, sources tell CNN.

    Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is expected to seek charges against more than a dozen individuals when her team presents its case before a grand jury next week. Several individuals involved in the voting systems breach in Coffee County are among those who may face charges in the sprawling criminal probe.

    Investigators in the Georgia criminal probe have long suspected the breach was not an organic effort sprung from sympathetic Trump supporters in rural and heavily Republican Coffee County – a county Trump won by nearly 70% of the vote. They have gathered evidence indicating it was a top-down push by Trump’s team to access sensitive voting software, according to people familiar with the situation.

    Trump allies attempted to access voting systems after the 2020 election as part of the broader push to produce evidence that could back up the former president’s baseless claims of widespread fraud.

  8. Socrates says :
    It would be a much bigger deal if someone like Sam Kerr or Mary Fowler came out in support of Yes after the last WWCF game. The Matildas following is large and diverse.
    I wonder if anyone has asked them to ?
    Maybe after the final win they will be treated like Gods, if there are not already.
    A simple request from any or all of the Matildas for a YES vote would secure the
    passing of the referendum.
    Go the Matildas !

  9. Oh poor widdle Boerwar, doesn’t like the nasty people having a go at him online. He, like so many others on here, love to dish it out, but sure as hell, don’t like taking it.

  10. Qantas putting Yes campaign slogans on their planes – the optics of that are all bad, Aussies generally hate being lectured to by corporates, celebrities and sports stars. But knowing how desperate the Yes camp now is, I am sure Sam Kerr or other members of the Matildas will be recruited in coming weeks.
    Albo’s political judgement is usually pretty spot on, but with this Voice thing, he is way off the mark and tomorrow’s Resolve Poll would seem to confirm this.

  11. Resolve Poll on the Voice Referendum:
    Yes 46, No 54
    The Yes vote ahead only in Vic and Tassie, The No vote leads in NSW, QLD, SA and WA.

  12. Evan,
    I hope the Yes vote support improves.

    If No wins in the Referendum, the world will view Australia as a racist backwater.

  13. The trend is going one way, and it is not towards Yes.
    Yes, the Yes campaigners in this group will cling to the hope that 30% of the electorate are undecided and ready to be won over by chats at railway stations or shopping centres. Apparently waving around Yes posters is wildly effective.

  14. More from the Gina monologues:

    ‘He said the actions were “covered up” with a “false narrative to her children and the public generally that (Hancock Prospecting’s) and her personal success was simply a product of hard work rather than dishonesty”.’

    ‘Withers said Rinehart’s alleged fraud “increased her own shareholding at the expense of her children” and that she lied to them about it.

    ‘He also claimed that Rinehart, who was declared West Australian of the Year in 2023, threatened John Hancock and his lawyers when they attempted to investigate the matter.’

  15. The Perils of Pauline? ‘There is only one thing worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about’ …

    ‘… a party source told Guardian Australia the decision to sack Latham as leader came after it became clear that the “mainstream media” would not deal with him following his homophobic outburst towards Greenwich.

    ‘“No one has been interested in what he has had to say following the Greenwich matter,” the source said. “If Peter Dutton couldn’t do Sunrise … do you think he’d remain [Liberal] leader? There’s no point in having a leader that can’t get their message out.”

    ‘The insider claimed there was “no animosity” from Hanson’s side. “It’s purely based on a political decision,” they said.’

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