Indigenous voice polling: Essential, Newspoll and Redbridge (open thread)

Three polling items on the Indigenous Voice have emerged in the past few days, none of which offer encouragement for the yes campaign:

• The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research has no leading yes by 47% to 43%, with small-sample breakdowns showing yes trailing in all mainland states but Victoria, where it leads 47-46. No leads 47-41 in New South Wales, 51-40 in Queensland, 48-39 in Western Australia and 48-45 in South Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1150 – its voting intention results should be along later today.

• The Australian yesterday had state breakdowns of Indigenous Voice voting intention aggregated from Newspoll from late May through to mid-July, which find yes leading by 45% to 42% in New South Wales and 48% to 42% in South Australia, tied at 44% apiece in Victoria, and trailing by 54% to 39% in Queensland, 52% to 39% in Western Australia and 48% to 43% in Tasmania. The overall national results across the period in question had no leading 46% to 43%, from a sample of 5417. Support was highest among high income earners, young people, those with university degrees, non-English speakers and women.

• A Redbridge Group poll, which has been published in very great detail has no leading 56-44, with leads of 56-44 in New South Wales, 55-45 in Victoria and 63-37 in Queensland. The poll was conducted July 21 to 27 from a sample of 1022.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The primary votes from the Essential Research poll have Labor up two to 33%, the Coalition down two to 30%, the Greens down two to 12% and One Nation up one to 8%, with Labor up two points on the 2PP+ measure to 52%, the Coalition down three to 42% and undecided steady on 6%. However, further findings from the poll find the government performing badly on a range of issues, doing best on international relations with 24% positive, 47% neutral and 29% negative, but floundering on the Indigenous Voice and climate change and doing particularly badly on cost of living (9% positive, 21% average, 70% negative) and housing affordability (8% positive, 25% neutral, 67% negative).

A regular question on the national mood finds a two point decrease for the proposition that Australia is on the “right track” to 32% with wrong track steady on 48%. Fifty per cent believed marijuana should be “regulated and taxed by the government in a similar way to tobacco or alcohol”, with 26% opposed, but results were far less favourable in relation to other illegal drugs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe