Three polling items on the Indigenous Voice have emerged in the past few days, none of which offer encouragement for the yes campaign:
• The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research has no leading yes by 47% to 43%, with small-sample breakdowns showing yes trailing in all mainland states but Victoria, where it leads 47-46. No leads 47-41 in New South Wales, 51-40 in Queensland, 48-39 in Western Australia and 48-45 in South Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1150 – its voting intention results should be along later today.
• The Australian yesterday had state breakdowns of Indigenous Voice voting intention aggregated from Newspoll from late May through to mid-July, which find yes leading by 45% to 42% in New South Wales and 48% to 42% in South Australia, tied at 44% apiece in Victoria, and trailing by 54% to 39% in Queensland, 52% to 39% in Western Australia and 48% to 43% in Tasmania. The overall national results across the period in question had no leading 46% to 43%, from a sample of 5417. Support was highest among high income earners, young people, those with university degrees, non-English speakers and women.
• A Redbridge Group poll, which has been published in very great detail has no leading 56-44, with leads of 56-44 in New South Wales, 55-45 in Victoria and 63-37 in Queensland. The poll was conducted July 21 to 27 from a sample of 1022.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The primary votes from the Essential Research poll have Labor up two to 33%, the Coalition down two to 30%, the Greens down two to 12% and One Nation up one to 8%, with Labor up two points on the 2PP+ measure to 52%, the Coalition down three to 42% and undecided steady on 6%. However, further findings from the poll find the government performing badly on a range of issues, doing best on international relations with 24% positive, 47% neutral and 29% negative, but floundering on the Indigenous Voice and climate change and doing particularly badly on cost of living (9% positive, 21% average, 70% negative) and housing affordability (8% positive, 25% neutral, 67% negative).
A regular question on the national mood finds a two point decrease for the proposition that Australia is on the “right track” to 32% with wrong track steady on 48%. Fifty per cent believed marijuana should be “regulated and taxed by the government in a similar way to tobacco or alcohol”, with 26% opposed, but results were far less favourable in relation to other illegal drugs.