Indigenous voice polling: Essential, Newspoll and Redbridge (open thread)

Three polls record mixed signals on the Indigenous Voice from Victoria, and negative ones everywhere else.

Three polling items on the Indigenous Voice have emerged in the past few days, none of which offer encouragement for the yes campaign:

• The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research has no leading yes by 47% to 43%, with small-sample breakdowns showing yes trailing in all mainland states but Victoria, where it leads 47-46. No leads 47-41 in New South Wales, 51-40 in Queensland, 48-39 in Western Australia and 48-45 in South Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1150 – its voting intention results should be along later today.

• The Australian yesterday had state breakdowns of Indigenous Voice voting intention aggregated from Newspoll from late May through to mid-July, which find yes leading by 45% to 42% in New South Wales and 48% to 42% in South Australia, tied at 44% apiece in Victoria, and trailing by 54% to 39% in Queensland, 52% to 39% in Western Australia and 48% to 43% in Tasmania. The overall national results across the period in question had no leading 46% to 43%, from a sample of 5417. Support was highest among high income earners, young people, those with university degrees, non-English speakers and women.

• A Redbridge Group poll, which has been published in very great detail has no leading 56-44, with leads of 56-44 in New South Wales, 55-45 in Victoria and 63-37 in Queensland. The poll was conducted July 21 to 27 from a sample of 1022.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The primary votes from the Essential Research poll have Labor up two to 33%, the Coalition down two to 30%, the Greens down two to 12% and One Nation up one to 8%, with Labor up two points on the 2PP+ measure to 52%, the Coalition down three to 42% and undecided steady on 6%. However, further findings from the poll find the government performing badly on a range of issues, doing best on international relations with 24% positive, 47% neutral and 29% negative, but floundering on the Indigenous Voice and climate change and doing particularly badly on cost of living (9% positive, 21% average, 70% negative) and housing affordability (8% positive, 25% neutral, 67% negative).

A regular question on the national mood finds a two point decrease for the proposition that Australia is on the “right track” to 32% with wrong track steady on 48%. Fifty per cent believed marijuana should be “regulated and taxed by the government in a similar way to tobacco or alcohol”, with 26% opposed, but results were far less favourable in relation to other illegal drugs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,858 comments on “Indigenous voice polling: Essential, Newspoll and Redbridge (open thread)”

Comments Page 36 of 38
1 … 35 36 37 38

  1. Mavis and other people interested in American judiciary especially Judge Cannon who is presiding over Trump Documents case in Florida.

    Judge Cannon Reportedly Gifted Luxury Trip

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/12/2186871/-Judge-Cannon-Reportedly-Gifted-Luxury-Trip

    https://accountable.us/judge-cannon-gifted-luxury-trip-by-leo-backed-scalia-law-school/

    “WASHINGTON, DC – Today, new reporting from The Guardian revealed that U.S. district court Judge Aileen Cannon, currently presiding over former President Trump’s criminal case for mishandling classified documents, is part of conservative kingpin Leonard Leo’s right-wing network. Cannon was gifted a luxury trip by the Leonard Leo-backed Scalia Law School — raising new questions about Leo’s decades-long efforts to curry favor with members of the American judiciary.
    “

  2. Andrew Earlwood

    Your obsession with French subs has blinded you to the needs of BAE shareholders and the former Liberal ministers they employ.

    At least Macron has a sense of humour.

    It would be wonderful if an Australian sub could sink England.

  6. imacca 12:59 pm

    “Watched Insiders today, Nats seem very keen on slowing things down and taking our time on renewable energy. Which is code for put things off for another 10 years so our donors can make better return on their sunk assets, and profit from grant $ when we are back in our rightful place. FFS, it is just so transparently fwarking stupid.”
    —————

    I might have some sympathy for companies losing out somewhat on sunk costs except for the fact that many of them have had years to prepare for this situation, to mitigate their losses or even join the disrupters.

    Instead they and certain political parties were either lazy or chose to fight against progress therefore my sympathy is greatly diminished. They simply chose not to adapt and must pay the price.

  7. Regarding the GOP outrage at the special counsel being appointed to look into the President’s son, the give me an inch and I’ll take a mile approach to politics might be another explanation. This is especially so if outrage is the essence of your politics. But I accept that the GOP do not want to resolve their “what-about-Biden” talking points, and that that would be a stronger motive. They’re going to have to conspire up some theories.

  9. ““LOL! “Please try and get more than 10 of those brain cells buzzing at any one point”.”

    A bit harsh perhaps when addressed at MSM types who probably cap out at 5.

    I was thinking more about some of the posters here on PB. I wonder if they would even reach 5.”

    I’m trying to be a little bit nicer, even when the harsh characterisations are entirely objectively fair and accurate.

  10. Boerwar 3:48

    Did you mean to post that particular link about Chinese coal demand?
    The article is dated 2012 and I doubt proves very much in the current context.

  12. ‘Socrates says:
    Sunday, August 13, 2023 at 3:51 pm

    Boerwar 3:48

    Did you mean to post that particular link about Chinese coal demand?
    The article is dated 2012 and I doubt proves very much in the current context.’
    ———————————–
    The forecasts were fairly accurate. China now burns half the world’s coal and is increasing new coal fired at six times the rest of the world combined.

    Still, with 32,000 houses being destroyed in the recent floods and increasing anxieties about their food crops for this year maybe even the Chinese might connect the dots.

  14. WeWantPaul says:
    Sunday, August 13, 2023 at 3:49 pm
    ““LOL! “Please try and get more than 10 of those brain cells buzzing at any one point”.”

    A bit harsh perhaps when addressed at MSM types who probably cap out at 5.

    I was thinking more about some of the posters here on PB. I wonder if they would even reach 5.”

    I’m trying to be a little bit nicer, even when the harsh characterisations are entirely objectively fair and accurate.

    _______________

    Statler & Waldorf come to mind 🙂

  15. I consider myself the Matilda’s #1 fan, but I think a public holiday is a bit OTT and just Albanese going for a bit of cheap politics.

  16. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 13, 2023 at 4:10 pm

    I consider myself the Matilda’s #1 fan, but I think a public holiday is a bit OTT and just Albanese going for a bit of cheap politics.’
    —————————
    Obviously missed Littleproud’s sordid performance on Insiders this morning.

  17. Late Riser @ #1757 Sunday, August 13th, 2023 – 3:35 pm

    Regarding the GOP outrage at the special counsel being appointed to look into the President’s son, the give me an inch and I’ll take a mile approach to politics might be another explanation. This is especially so if outrage is the essence of your politics. But I accept that the GOP do not want to resolve their “what-about-Biden” talking points, and that that would be a stronger motive. They’re going to have to conspire up some theories.

    Wouldn’t it be better for the Dems and the country if Joe took the issue off the table by retiring and allowing a fresh leadership team step up …?

  19. “Wouldn’t it be better for the Dems and the country if Joe took the issue off the table by retiring and allowing a fresh leadership team step up …?”
    —
    It would amplify/underline the issue. So … no.

  20. I note the fossil fuel cartel is currently flooding tv and radio with pro gas propaganda.

    I consider it as harmful and destructive as the sports betting advertising.

  21. Cracks in the NO alliance:

    Nationals leader David Littleproud has rejected calls for legislating an Indigenous voice, despite it being at odds with the model for the body proposed by coalition colleagues.

    While the Liberal Party has come out against the voice referendum, slated to be held later this year, the opposition has urged it be legislated rather than have the body enshrined in the constitution…

    The divisions within the coalition on its voice position come as federal Liberals hit out at NSW Liberal leader Mark Speakman’s decision to support the voice.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8306244/littleproud-rejects-calls-for-legislated-voice-model/?cs=14264 (AAP article not paywalled)

  23. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 13, 2023 at 4:29 pm

    I note the fossil fuel cartel is currently flooding tv and radio with pro gas propaganda.

    I consider it as harmful and destructive as the sports betting advertising.’
    ============================================
    Advertising promoting Dutton as a national leader is worse.

  24. I notice industry and business lobbyists are out and about being Henny Penny on the idea of a public holiday for a major sporting event win. I suggest if they are so worried that celebrating, what would probably be the biggest Aussie sporting event win in 30years, with time off is so bad for business then perhaps we should scrap all private boxes and business perk tickets so all these businesses execs and their lobby group reps get the f back to working whatever their f’ing day job is, rather than swanning around hobnobbing at these events. Force them into pleb seats like everyone else.

    No doubt they think drinking grange in a box with VIPs is hard work and part of their 60h week. Fatcat f’ers.

  28. citizen @ #1770 Sunday, August 13th, 2023 – 4:30 pm

    Cracks in the NO alliance:

    Nationals leader David Littleproud has rejected calls for legislating an Indigenous voice, despite it being at odds with the model for the body proposed by coalition colleagues.

    While the Liberal Party has come out against the voice referendum, slated to be held later this year, the opposition has urged it be legislated rather than have the body enshrined in the constitution…

    The divisions within the coalition on its voice position come as federal Liberals hit out at NSW Liberal leader Mark Speakman’s decision to support the voice.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8306244/littleproud-rejects-calls-for-legislated-voice-model/?cs=14264 (AAP article not paywalled)

    Therefore, as Jacinta Price caucases with The Nationals, she is out of step with the policy of the Opposition Leader. Does that not mean she should resign from the Opposition Front bench and her Shadow Ministry, like Julian Leeser?

  29. Glass manufacture contributes around 100 million tons of CO2 a year.

    The important question for eco resort poseurs is whether to install double glazing or triple glazing.

    After all, if China, India and Indonesia are all powering up their coal consumption by massive amounts, every bit counts.

    Per capita, that is.

  30. Price was totally exposed by Littleproud this morning.

    Not that that would worry Littleproud.

    Will Price experience an epiphany on the road to Tjoritja?

  32. A strong case can be made against impromptu public holidays, but it isn’t specifically the impact on businesses big or small.

    Unexpected public holidays disrupt many people’s important long-term plans: people with bookings for important surgery, people who have arranged for tradesmen to come to fix something urgent in their home, schools and universities which had guest speakers or other special events planned for a particular day, people making interstate trips for a particular work activity, etc.

    I think they create far more trouble than they are worth.

  33. Late Riser @ #1781 Sunday, August 13th, 2023 – 4:44 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1772 Sunday, August 13th, 2023 – 4:31 pm

    Late Riser @ #1769 Sunday, August 13th, 2023 – 4:24 pm

    “Wouldn’t it be better for the Dems and the country if Joe took the issue off the table by retiring and allowing a fresh leadership team step up …?”
    —
    It would amplify/underline the issue. So … no.

    But it would remove it from the Presidential election.

    No it wouldn’t. And why take the spotlight off T****?

    How is the Hunter Biden investigation a Presidential election issue if Joe Biden is retired and gone from the White House ..?

    All the criminal spotlight goes to Trump.

  34. Boerwar says:

    The important question for eco resort poseurs is whether to install double glazing or triple glazing.
    ____________
    You’re such a gentleman towards P1.

  36. If unexpected public holidays are something a business or person can’t handle they need serious resilience coaching. The idea society so lacks flexibility and resilience is an absurd suggestion, more so if it is true.

    Perhaps we need to start having 5 random public holidays per year so people and business can learn basic skills.

  42. I support a PH if the Matilda’s win the World Cup – but it seems pretty clear for some on here even this is connected to politics – the same people supporting one now would be the first to oppose it had Dutton proposed it first.

  43. Lars Von Trier @ #1792 Sunday, August 13th, 2023 – 5:11 pm

    I support a PH if the Matilda’s win the World Cup – but it seems pretty clear for some on here even this is connected to politics – the same people supporting one now would be the first to oppose it had Dutton proposed it first.

    If it was Morrison down on the sidelines photobombing the Matilda’s there’d be outrage on PB.

  44. nath @ #1784 Sunday, August 13th, 2023 – 4:54 pm

    You’re such a gentleman towards P1.

    We don’t fit Boerwar’s criteria, so I don’t take that stuff personally. It actually makes him look obsessive and deranged, so more power to his quivering chin.

    But I do get annoyed at the “But China …” stuff, which is an attempt to derail criticism of Australia’s own inadequate climate policies.

    We difference of course is that we can’t do much about China’s policies (well, we could stop shipping them our coal and also stop importing their manufactured goods – but neither of those is very likely, since the cost would be non-trivial). However, we can easily do something about Australia’s policies, and at very little cost to ourselves. Indeed, we might even save ourselves some money, since fossil fuels are now more expensive than renewables.

    But of course this is the last thing that people who use the “But China …” technique want to see happen.

  46. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 13, 2023 at 5:14 pm
    …

    If it was Morrison down on the sidelines photobombing the Matilda’s there’d be outrage on PB.

    We have already had outrage from you without the photo bombing.

  47. Rex Douglas
    If it was Morrison down on the sidelines photobombing the Matilda’s there’d be outrage on PB.

    This is because as Prime Minister, Morrison was supposed to be running the country at least some of the time. But all he did was spin and self-promotion.

    Albanese is doing what he is paid to do: be Prime Minister. Very different to Morrison.

    Your hatred of Albo blinds you to this fact.

  49. If we are getting a Newspoll tonight, it’s time for predictions.
    Here are mine: Labor 54, Coalition 46. Albo preferred PM.
    The Voice: No 51, Yes 49.

Comments Page 36 of 38
1 … 35 36 37 38

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *