It’s been three weeks since Newspoll, which more often than not means another one should be along tonight. On that note, academic Murray Goot writes in Inside Story that there has been an “unreported upheaval” at YouGov’s Australian operation, which conducts the poll, in which “virtually all of those working in the public affairs and polling unit” have left – including Campbell White, who had been its head since it took over Newspoll in the wake of the 2019 election.
Until then, here’s the usual weekly assembly of federally relevant preselection news:
• Paul Karp of The Guardian reports factional conservatives consider their preselection challengers “likely” to defeat Melissa McIntosh in Lindsay and a “good chance” against Sussan Ley in Farrer. Alex Hawke “may require support from moderate Liberals” in Mitchell, and the move against Paul Fletcher in Bradfield is “considered unlikely to succeed”.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Brendan Blomeley’s bid for the state presidency of the Tasmanian Liberal Party marks part of an effort by Eric Abetz’s conservative faction to gain control of the state executive with a view to placing Blomeley on the Senate ticket at the expense of Richard Colbeck, securing a political comeback for Abetz in state parliament, and potentially undermining the preselection of arch-moderate Bass MP Bridget Archer.
• Eli Greenblat of The Australian reports the front-runners for Liberal preselection in Higgins are William Stoltz, senior manager at cybersecurity firm CyberCX and associate at the Australian National University’s National Security College, and Marcus Pearl, Port Phillip councillor and former mayor and chief executive of financial advisory and consulting services firm QMV. Katie Allen, who lost the seat to Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah last year, is reportedly keen to run again, but faces resistance because she crossed the floor to oppose the Morrison government’s amendments to religious discrimination laws.
• Party sources cited by The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column report that a disputes committee of the Liberal National Party in Queensland is likely to rule in favour of Senator Gerard Rennick’s challenge to his narrow preselection defeat last month, resulting in the process being repeated.
By-election latest:
• Quicker than I would have expected, the Western Australian Electoral Commission has conducted its full preference count from last Saturday’s Rockingham by-election. This showed Liberal candidate Peter Hudson finished third behind independent Hayley Edwards, the latter overcoming a primary vote deficit of 17.7% to 15.9% on preferences to lead by 22.1% to 21.0% at the final exclusion. Labor’s Magenta Marshall went on to win at the final count with 13,412 votes (61.4%) to Edwards’ 8443 (38.6%).
• While the preference distribution is still to be conducted, the last remaining postal votes have been added for the Fadden by-election, confirming a two-party swing to the LNP of 2.72%. On Thursday, Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review related a bullish take on the result presented to the Coalition party room by Senator James McGrath, which noted an elevated swing of 9% in “booths where there was a high rate of mortgages”. However, this was selectively based on the LNP primary vote in two booths – taking the newly developed Coomera and Pimpama area in total, the two-party swing was 5.5%. Further, the suburbs in question are dominated not so much by mortgage payers (32.8% of private dwellings as of the 2021 census, compared with 35.0% nationwide) as renters (55.5% compared with 30.6%). McGrath also claimed a 3.5% drop in independent Stewart Brooker’s vote was a measure of how much Labor benefited from top position on the ballot paper, which at least triples more judicious estimates of the donkey vote effect. Overlooked was the fact that Brooker was part of a field of thirteen this time and seven last time, and went from being the only independent to one of three.
Steve777 says:
“It used to be compulsory to have Bill Hunter in every Australian movie but sadly he’s no longer with us…”
Before Bill Hunter, there was Chips Rafferty …
Which brings to mind a Mavis Bramston skit (going back a few years now) with the talented Ron Fraser playing a credible Chips.
First scene: Australian bush. Ron sips from a mug, and says to camera: “Strewth this creek water tastes beaut!”
Second scene: Australian bush. Ron sips from a mug, and says to camera: “Strewth this billy tea tastes beaut!”
Third scene: Studio. Ron in a full-length ball gown. Voiceover: “And now Chips is an international movie star, who uses Lux soap every day.”
Ron flourishes a bar of soap, takes a big bite, and says: “Strewth this Lux soap tastes beaut!”
They don’t write ‘em like that any more …
Bit of a sweary article, but one I mostly agree with.
https://theshot.net.au/general-news/murdochs-climate-denial-is-unhinged/
Ha, ha. England play for over 35 minutes with a player short and still beat Nigeria, who beat Australia comfortably. Suck it up Borewar and Team Katich
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And they say rent is expensive.
I notice moral victories now come with a side of stomping studs into someone prone. Very English.
Finally, the Kerr/Harder show.
Cronus @ Monday, August 7, 2023 at 7:03 pm:
“Enough Already
Once again I’ve been satisfied with Ukraine’s tactical successes over the past 72 hrs. The damaging of another three bridges further isolating Crimean supply routes from the remainder of occupied Ukrainian territory has virtually ceased rail logistics by Russia north or east in this area.
Additionally, the damaging of two Russian naval vessels during a simultaneous drone feint attack from the air also provides high payoff in terms of deterring Russian naval movement and causing the redeployment of defensive assets much needed on the frontlines.
IMO they’re maximising their returns in the context of the current scenario. Logistic and infrastructure targets are rarely sexy but always highly valuable with short and medium term ramifications that will increasingly weigh on Russian forces. Ukraine is maintaining the initiative, albeit incrementally.”
=============
Cronus, that’s how I see it too. I especially like how they have prioritised identifying and capturing particularly advantageous positions in terms of terrain (elevation, cover, interdiction of Russian GLOC’s) over flashy assaults.
Team Katich wrote, “I notice moral victories now come with a side of stomping studs into someone prone. Very English.”
She was stupid and deserved to be sent off, albeit being a love tap. Still a dumb thing to do and the right decision was made. Unlike you, I do have room to admit when my country is in the wrong. You ought to try it sometime ole One EYE.
Well done to the Matildas! A well deserved win. Took about 20 minutes in each half for the defence to settle under sustained attack. Both times they regained their shape and looked much better as time wore on. Not their best football but they are growing into this tournament. Go Matildas!
Matildas are in the quarter finals
I noticed that in the SMH comments, Enough is Enough was going for Denmark. Says a lot about conservative supporters.
Well one anyway.
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, August 7, 2023 at 7:09 pm
10 months ago Daniel Andrews stepped up when Gina Rinehart abandoned the Netball Australia.
Today the Diamonds sparkled winning the World Cup.
Good day to be a Victorian.
_____________________
Yawn.
Couldn’t care less.
Didn’t even know it was on.
Dutton bypassed Indigenous community safety for grants in Coalition seats
Labor has seized on new documents to turn the blowtorch on Dutton and his commitment to safety in remote communities over a Voice to parliament.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-bypassed-indigenous-crime-prevention-for-safety-grants-in-coalition-seats-20230806-p5du9d.html
______________________________
Peter Dutton blocked high-priority crime prevention grants for Indigenous communities as Home Affairs Minister in favour of less-worthy projects found to have favoured Coalition seats and which included protecting “expensive bowling greens”.
A high-priority crime prevention strategy is never voting for turds like this…
Well done Matildas! A really well organised game, never gave Denmark much of a chance at our goal.
Fowler, Foord and Raso were excellent.
Tailoredmerde @ #379 Monday, August 7th, 2023 – 10:37 pm
Yawn.
Couldn’t care less.
Sukkar!!
That was a fun match. A nervous start was followed by pure enjoyment from the first goal until the end.
Thank you Matildas, and thank you “Red and White” (Denmark).
Cat
Thanks for the mention of the piece on 7:30 report regarding infrastructure projects. I have spoken to all the expert speakers interviewed and they are highly credible.
IMO in Infrastructure we need to:
-REDUCE the level of spending; Scomo promised more stuff than industry can deliver
– REDIRECT the spending away from urban freeway projects to urban public transport and rural road safety and maintenance
– RESTART proper planning processes so we don’t get billion dollar decisions made off “back of the envelope” analysis.
It was a fun match except the first two minutes… Denmark could have scored!
Jeebus, if this is able to get some solid coverage, it could be very damaging for Dutton indeed.
I bet they are devastated.
Saw Mark Butler on the news tonight coming out swinging against the Pharmacy Guild, and stating in no uncertain terms that the government would shut down any attempt to pass on costs to aged care residents. I’m curious what options the government has to prevent this from happening?
The attacks on the government’s changes to prescriptions by the pharmacy guild is just disgraceful. Every pharmacy I’ve been to recently has just been plastered with scare campaigns about it. It is so transparently obvious that this has nothing to do with the costs potentially going up and everything to do with wanting to ensure more impulse buying from customers coming in your essential medications.
Kirksdarke:
Great stuff, and a subject where excessive swearing is entirely warranted.
It boggles my mind that anyone could still be a climate denier in this day and age, and the fact that there are people who can watch an absolute fucking clown like Rowan Dean while nodding along thinking “Yeah, this guy makes a good point!” might just be even more baffling.
Ashasays:
Monday, August 7, 2023 at 11:18 pm
It boggles my mind that anyone could still be a climate denier in this day and age
__________________
I think at this point the holdouts probably know they are wrong but stubbornness is a powerful trait.
Fortunately I learnt about the greenhouse effect on Venus before ever hearing about the Earth possibly going through a similar process.*
The science seemed fairly simple to follow after that.
* I was obsessed with The Planets in primary school.
Er. That was meant to read “customers coming in for essential medications.”
Nath:
Me too. Planets and dinosaurs.
Still am, too. Though the dinosaur obsession is probably more a fascination with deep time and the process of evolution in general these day.
The Pharmacy Guild need to publish their calculations that lead them to conclude that it will cost $800 per aged care resident to cut the packing and deliveries from six to twelve per annum or be called out as liars. Could they save $800 by delivering bimonthly?
Asha says:
Monday, August 7, 2023 at 11:13 pm
The attacks on the government’s changes to prescriptions by the pharmacy guild is just disgraceful. Every pharmacy I’ve been to recently has just been plastered with scare campaigns about it. It is so transparently obvious that this has nothing to do with the costs potentially going up and everything to do with wanting to ensure more impulse buying from customers coming in your essential medications.
__________________
It is primarily the reduction in dispensing fees. See: https://www.pbs.gov.au/info/healthpro/explanatory-notes/front/fee
Pharmacy owners receive a dispensing fee each time they or their pharmacist employee dispenses a PBS medication to put into a dose administration aid (blister pack) for aged care residents. It would add up to a non-insignificant sum if a pharmacy is servicing a facility. More if servicing multiple. There will be some owners that have bought in the last 10 years with an associated loan that would be hurting.
The backward rotation of Venus concerned me greatly. I was also probably too worried about the location of the closest black hole.
A very sensible argument against anthropogenic change presented to the Dáil
“God above is in charge of the weather”.
I suspect this is also the basis for many American denialists
https://youtu.be/f2e-gOeN3DM
OC:
Any chance they can ask God to ease up a little?
EDIT: Also, holy hell, the second-hand embarrassment from watching that clip was just… Wow.
Steve777 says:
Monday, August 7, 2023 at 11:32 pm
The Pharmacy Guild need to publish their calculations that lead them to conclude that it will cost $800 per aged care resident to cut the packing and deliveries from six to twelve per annum or be called out as liars. Could they save $800 by delivering bimonthly?
________________
It is potentially a calculation of the average loss in dispensing fees that is sometimes used for cross-subsidisation for packing and delivery, due to competitive nature of contracting by aged care providers.
Although the numbers may be somewhat loose 🙂
Asha
As a student of cultured parliamentary debate you will like this.
Danny Healy-Ray sits next to his brother Michael (“the cap”) in the Dáil.
Here they disrupt the sitting. Most of this is apparently in English and about who is going to speak next.
https://youtu.be/i3r8IBlVtys
OC:
Amazing! They don’t make them like that over here!
Oh, dear …
‘No vote overtakes yes in all states except Victoria, Guardian Essential poll shows’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/08/no-vote-overtakes-yes-in-all-states-except-victoria-guardian-essential-poll-shows
Essential poll:
‘… 47% did not approve of the voice, with 43% in favour and the remaining 10% unsure.’
‘… opponents outnumbered supporters in all states except Victoria …’
‘… a higher proportion of respondents described themselves as “hard no” compared with “hard yes”, with 38% to 31%.’
‘Support … was strongest among women, with 47% in favour compared with 40% opposed, and among people aged 18 to 34, with 62% in favour compared with 26% opposed.
‘Opposition … was strongest among men, 55% of whom said no, among people aged over 55, 65% of whom said no, and among supporters of the Coalition, minor parties and independents.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/08/no-vote-overtakes-yes-in-all-states-except-victoria-guardian-essential-poll-shows
New thread.
Griff @ #828 Monday, August 7th, 2023 – 11:40 pm
It’s a rort they’ve glommed onto since the Baby Boomer Bulge started moving into Aged Care Facilities and you know it, Griff. You would also know that a not-very-well-paid Dispensary Assistant, an Intern, or a not-very-well-paid Pharmacist-In-Charge, would be doing and overseeing the Webster Pack work in each pharmacy with a contract to supply an Aged Care Facility. With the Owner of the Pharmacy pocketing the Dispensing Fee.
I also note that the campaign by the Pharmacy Guild doesn’t reveal how they massively increased their profits under the Coalition government by being one of the industries that benefited from the influx of overseas-qualified skilled workers (pharmacists), which enabled them to drive down the hourly rate that they paid Pharmacists who qualified in Australia, as they just sourced a Pharmacist from overseas who was prepared to work for less than the going rate. To the extent that Pharmacists who were employed by a Pharmacy Owner, were paid not much more per hour than the top shop girl or Dispensary Assistant. Thus exponentially increasing their profit margin.
They don’t plaster that bit of information all over the shop walls, do they?
nath says:
Monday, August 7, 2023 at 11:24 pm
Ashasays:
Monday, August 7, 2023 at 11:18 pm
It boggles my mind that anyone could still be a climate denier in this day and age.
A lot of people go to church in Sunday. There are a lot of flat earth videos.
Aaron Pedersen is a wonderful indigenous actor.
Socrates @ 10.12am.
Vigil was a classic Brit drama.
In a similar vein to Cobra, for which a new series is due to be screened on SBS TV.
There is only one Free to Air station broadcasting quality, absorbing drama on television and that is SBS.
I will excuse the pathetic woke version of Anne Boylen – it was obviously one of those package dumps that channels receive when they purchase the rights to a number of programmes.
Has anyone gone beyound half of the 1st episode of that one?
It may seem strange that a Republican governor of a US state acknowledging Joe Biden won the 2020 election and that Donald Trump lost would be major headline news. But such is the US political climate that Trump has helped create. Overnight Ron DeSantis earned prominent mentions on the websites of The New York Times, The Guardian, CNN, the Associated Press and others for his admission that Trump “of course” lost the election.
He made the comments in an interview with NBC News, and only after DeSantis, a top Republican challenger for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination, was pressed on it. At first, when asked if Trump had lost, the Florida governor answered: “Whoever puts their hand on the Bible on Jan 20 every four years is the winner.” Asked if he wouldn’t give a yes or no answer, DeSantis said: ”No, of course he lost … Joe Biden’s the president.”
I’m putting 2 & 2 together & predicting Trump will be in gaol by christmas
First
Judge Limits Trump’s Ability to Share Jan. 6 Evidence
During a 90-minute hearing in Washington, Judge Tanya S. Chutkan also warned the former president against any attempt to intimidate witnesses or prejudice potential jurors.
Second
Mr. Bankman-Fried, 31, had been under house arrest at his parents’ home in Palo Alto, Calif., since he was arrested in December on fraud charges stemming from FTX’s implosion. But at Friday’s hearing, Judge Lewis A. Kaplan of Federal District Court in Manhattan said that arrangement would have to end, after prosecutors argued that Mr. Bankman-Fried had given documents to the media to intimidate a witness in the case.
“He has gone up to the line over and over again, and I am going to revoke bail,” Judge Kaplan said of Mr. Bankman-Fried after reading his ruling from the bench.
It’s there for Trump.. precedent.. cross the line & it’s porridge , he has crossed the line his whole life