Weekend miscellany: Liberal preselection argybargy and by-election results (open thread)

Liberal preselection turbulence across four states, and a look at the final results from Fadden and Rockingham.

It’s been three weeks since Newspoll, which more often than not means another one should be along tonight. On that note, academic Murray Goot writes in Inside Story that there has been an “unreported upheaval” at YouGov’s Australian operation, which conducts the poll, in which “virtually all of those working in the public affairs and polling unit” have left – including Campbell White, who had been its head since it took over Newspoll in the wake of the 2019 election.

Until then, here’s the usual weekly assembly of federally relevant preselection news:

Paul Karp of The Guardian reports factional conservatives consider their preselection challengers “likely” to defeat Melissa McIntosh in Lindsay and a “good chance” against Sussan Ley in Farrer. Alex Hawke “may require support from moderate Liberals” in Mitchell, and the move against Paul Fletcher in Bradfield is “considered unlikely to succeed”.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Brendan Blomeley’s bid for the state presidency of the Tasmanian Liberal Party marks part of an effort by Eric Abetz’s conservative faction to gain control of the state executive with a view to placing Blomeley on the Senate ticket at the expense of Richard Colbeck, securing a political comeback for Abetz in state parliament, and potentially undermining the preselection of arch-moderate Bass MP Bridget Archer.

Eli Greenblat of The Australian reports the front-runners for Liberal preselection in Higgins are William Stoltz, senior manager at cybersecurity firm CyberCX and associate at the Australian National University’s National Security College, and Marcus Pearl, Port Phillip councillor and former mayor and chief executive of financial advisory and consulting services firm QMV. Katie Allen, who lost the seat to Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah last year, is reportedly keen to run again, but faces resistance because she crossed the floor to oppose the Morrison government’s amendments to religious discrimination laws.

• Party sources cited by The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column report that a disputes committee of the Liberal National Party in Queensland is likely to rule in favour of Senator Gerard Rennick’s challenge to his narrow preselection defeat last month, resulting in the process being repeated.

By-election latest:

• Quicker than I would have expected, the Western Australian Electoral Commission has conducted its full preference count from last Saturday’s Rockingham by-election. This showed Liberal candidate Peter Hudson finished third behind independent Hayley Edwards, the latter overcoming a primary vote deficit of 17.7% to 15.9% on preferences to lead by 22.1% to 21.0% at the final exclusion. Labor’s Magenta Marshall went on to win at the final count with 13,412 votes (61.4%) to Edwards’ 8443 (38.6%).

• While the preference distribution is still to be conducted, the last remaining postal votes have been added for the Fadden by-election, confirming a two-party swing to the LNP of 2.72%. On Thursday, Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review related a bullish take on the result presented to the Coalition party room by Senator James McGrath, which noted an elevated swing of 9% in “booths where there was a high rate of mortgages”. However, this was selectively based on the LNP primary vote in two booths – taking the newly developed Coomera and Pimpama area in total, the two-party swing was 5.5%. Further, the suburbs in question are dominated not so much by mortgage payers (32.8% of private dwellings as of the 2021 census, compared with 35.0% nationwide) as renters (55.5% compared with 30.6%). McGrath also claimed a 3.5% drop in independent Stewart Brooker’s vote was a measure of how much Labor benefited from top position on the ballot paper, which at least triples more judicious estimates of the donkey vote effect. Overlooked was the fact that Brooker was part of a field of thirteen this time and seven last time, and went from being the only independent to one of three.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

843 comments on “Weekend miscellany: Liberal preselection argybargy and by-election results (open thread)”

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  1. ‘… the move against Paul Fletcher in Bradfield is “considered unlikely to succeed”.’

    ‘… potentially undermining the preselection of arch-moderate Bass MP Bridget Archer.‘

    If Fletcher makes the arrows, Archer can fire them.

    (I’ll get me coat …)

  2. “Katie Allen … is reportedly keen to run again [in Higgins], but faces resistance because she crossed the floor to oppose the Morrison government’s amendments to religious discrimination laws.”

    Excommunicated from the ‘broad church’, eh?

  3. On Thursday, Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review related a bullish take on the result presented to the Coalition party room by Senator James McGrath……
    ———————————
    He was spouting this to his pal on ABC local radio Friday morning. After some encouraging displays of independent thought, he is back in their pocket and spreading their word like the good little soldier he is.

  4. ‘Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review related a bullish take on the [Fadden] result presented to the Coalition party room by Senator James McGrath, which noted an elevated swing of 9% in “booths where there was a high rate of mortgages”. However, this was selectively based on the LNP primary vote in two booths …’

    So, more a ‘bullshit’ take than a ‘bullish’ one.

    Phil’s stock in trade.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This collection is a big comedown from yesterday!

    Mark Kenny has some thoughts about the way the Voice referendum debate is going.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8297027/the-great-australian-shouting-match/?cs=14329
    Nino Bucci and Tamsin Rose tell us how a series of killings and gun violence have rocked Sydney, a city with an already bloody criminal history.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/06/sydney-gangland-shooting-killing-gun-violence-crime-criminal-cocaine-drug-bondi-marrickville-greenacre-alen-moradian
    “It’s important to get a grip: we haven’t actually seen Walter Sofronoff’s report yet”, writes Richard Ackland. He says DPP Shane Drumgold, who prosecuted the ACT trial of Brittany Higgins’ rape allegations against Bruce Lehrmann, has been blindsided without an opportunity for response
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/05/its-important-to-get-a-grip-we-havent-actually-seen-walter-sofronoffs-report-yet
    Murdoch media is to face scrutiny as Australians for a Murdoch Royal Commission works with expert researchers to monitor its Voice Referendum coverage. Leading researcher for the project, Dr Victoria Fielding reports.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/news-corp-bullies-to-be-held-accountable-over-one-sided-voice-coverage,17779
    Victorian state Labor MP Will Fowles has resigned from the parliamentary Labor Party amid assault allegations. Daniel Andrews said in a statement on Saturday evening that his office was advised of an “alleged incident” on Thursday afternoon.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/labor-mp-will-fowles-resigns-over-alleged-serious-assault-20230805-p5du7f.html
    Wayne Swan says that superannuation’s benefits continue to stack up as the ideologues attack.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/superannuation/2023/08/05/wayne-swan-superannuation-attacks/
    Labor is facing growing opposition from conservative and Christian groups against a plan to toughen social media self-regulation of misinformation, including fresh claims from the Australian Christian Lobby that the proposal will “cancel Christian posts online”. No, it just aims to attend to blatant misinformation. So, cut the bullshit and you’ll be alright.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/05/australian-christian-lobby-social-posts-labor-misinformation-campaign
    Kate McClymont and Benn Cubby write that more than $500 million worth of major Sydney housing development projects are poised to hit the market as fugitive Jean Nassif’s failed property empire is rapidly dismantled by major lenders seeking quick sales to recoup debt. They say thousands of anxious apartment owners living in Toplace buildings are concerned that nothing will be left over for them to fix serious defects as the big lenders move to offload Toplace assets to reduce their own losses.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/500m-fire-sale-lenders-begin-to-break-up-nassif-s-crumbling-empire-20230804-p5du1f.html
    Due more to the courts than politicians, native forest logging may be nearing an end. Recent court judgements in Victorian Supreme and Federal courts don’t augur well for the logging industry. Sue Arnold reports.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/native-forest-logging-may-be-near-the-end-thanks-to-historic-court-decisions-precautionary-principle/
    Australia’s environmental protection legislation needs all hands-on deck right now. City centre households have lower emissions than the suburbs. Northern hemisphere summers getting hotter, writes Peter Sainsbury.
    https://johnmenadue.com/environment-critical-months-ahead-for-australias-environmental-legislation/
    As the Minns government grapples with the fallout from Tim Crakanthorp’s sacking, a massive planned redevelopment in Broadmeadow has been put on ice, explains Michael McGowan.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/newcastle-redevelopment-plans-on-indefinite-hold-after-crakanthorp-referred-to-icac-20230804-p5du2o.html
    Tim Biggs tells us that sustainability experts have warned of a crunch ahead for the booming data centre industry, as increasing energy usage amid demand for new artificial intelligence-powered technologies crosses paths with a hotter, drier climate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/energy-hungry-ai-could-pose-a-challenge-for-data-centre-esg-20230802-p5dtad.html
    Bigoted, antisemitic, gross: Rudy Giuliani finds an even lower low, says Arwa Mahdawi who provides many examples to support her opinion.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/05/rudy-giuliani-court-audio-new-york-trump
    America needs to see the ex-president brought to justice, urges the Observer editorial which says Trump’s claims about the 2020 election have done great harm to US democracy. They must be exposed for the blatant lies they are
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/05/observer-view-donald-trump-trial-america-needs-to-see-ex-president-brought-to-justice
    US prosecutors fear former president Donald Trump may intimidate witnesses after he made a threatening social media post stating: ‘IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU’. Prosecutors flagged the post in a late-night court filing, arguing it suggested he might intimidate witnesses by improperly disclosing confidential evidence received from the government.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/08/06/donald-trump-threatening-truth-social-post/

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.20460081190798377%2C$multiply_2.2063%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_8/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/222ed9ca79d9478e78c052c0d22cee935e5e4142.jpg
    Peter Broelman
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/kDqE8LvSwvU8fyZkrZC97F/ad0221b9-3230-443f-bb9d-e926d0f8755a.jpg/r0_0_2362_1533_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg

    From the US

    https://image.cagle.com/277118/750/277118.png
    https://image.cagle.com/277114/750/277114.png
    https://image.cagle.com/277110/750/277110.png
    https://image.cagle.com/277108/750/277108.png
    https://image.cagle.com/277106/750/277106.png
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1691146360/gv080423dAPR.jpg
    https://mediacloud.theweek.com/image/upload/f_auto,t_single-media-image-desktop@1/v1691146230/mrz080423dAPR.jpg

  6. Here’s another one for Kirsdarke to sleuth. One of my ancestors was a Mayor of Balmain for a couple of years in the late 1800s. He has his painting in Balmain Town Hall.

    Sadly, to my eternal shame, he was the manager of a colliery. 😀

  7. Wat from last thread about Democrat primary….
    If Biden does pull out due to ill health (or worse) near the end of the primary, won’t it be up to the DNC to select a candidate? If Harris had taken over as President, it would look bad if they didn’t select her but If he pulls out just because he doesn’t think he can do another 4 years but stays on to complete his tenure, they might choose anyone.

    If he pulls out early enough – candidates (including Harris) will rush to announce a run and rack up primary wins.

    But another possibility is that a respectable candidate joins the race early and gets some wins, still well behind Biden but close enough to spook him into pulling out but staying on as president. That candidate will quickly be swamped by contenders but it may be too late in the process for anyone to rack up enough primaries to claim a clear victory. That could get messy.

  8. If Biden does pull out due to ill health (or worse) near the end of the primary, won’t it be up to the DNC to select a candidate?

    I recall this issue being discussed extensively leading up to the 2020 election. The DNC would select the new candidate, however depending on how close to the election it is, another problem would be changing the name on the ballot papers.

  9. This is the guy the insiders in the Democratic Party are getting excited about for 2028, if President Biden goes through to 2024:

    Westley Watende Omari Moore is an American politician, investment banker, author, television producer, and nonprofit executive serving as the 63rd governor of Maryland since 2023. Wikipedia
    Born: 15 October 1978 (age 44 years), Takoma Park, Maryland, United States
    Education: University of Oxford (2004), Johns Hopkins University (2001), Valley Forge Military Academy and College
    Office: Governor of Maryland since 2023
    Spouse: Dawn Moore (m. 2007)
    Parents: Joy Moore, Westley Moore
    Siblings: Shani Moore, Nikki Moore
    Party: Democratic Party

    https://assets3.cbsnewsstatic.com/hub/i/r/2023/01/14/186792ff-144b-4ddc-bbca-10e20221ebe5/thumbnail/640×480/a108ffc768a32a3ea9579d75a25587ec/wes-moore-1280.jpg

  10. ‘Labor has nominated lawyer and small business owner Tracey Price as its lord mayoral candidate for the 2024 Brisbane City Council election.’

    ‘… she was the only person within the party to nominate to run for Brisbane’s top civic job.‘

    ‘Ms Price, who comes from Labor’s Left faction, works as a lawyer and owns a sewing shop.’

    A photogenic young professional woman taking on the uphill battle to break the LNP’s two-decade stranglehold on Brisbane City.

    Well, in 1991 Labor regained the lord mayoralty with an ex-priest: so, best of luck, Tracey.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-05/labor-brisbane-mayoral-candidate-lawyer-tracey-price/102693176

  11. In the movie, as in life, Ken is an accessory who is paid little notice. Perhaps the outrage of Ben Shapiro and his brethren comes from the fact that while they have an intensity of emotion around Barbie, Barbie herself, and the girls who play with her, have no such intensity around Ken – masculinity’s sole representative and avatar in Barbieland.

    Ken is occasionally roped in for a wedding, or perhaps flung into the campervan for a holiday, but he’s not key personnel, a theme the movie explores to hilarious and poignant effect. It is a confronting vision, I suppose, to see a world represented in which your gender is relegated to a low-status accessory.

    This, in case my irony isn’t heavy enough, is a common experience for females who have consumed any popular or high culture, pretty much since humans began daubing hunting scenes on cave walls. Barbie is already one of the 100 highest-grossing films of all time, and the highest grossing film ever made by a female director.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/from-barbie-to-taylor-swift-why-are-men-so-afraid-of-girls-20230804-p5dtz5.html

    This.

    I haven’t seen the movie Barbie only because I’m waiting for the hype around it to die down a bit so there aren’t so many people in the movie theatre. But people I know who have seen it have been full of praise, so I am definitely going to see it.

    I too have wondered at the strong emotions coming largely from men about this movie. Surely, as with anything, if you don’t like Barbie or don’t ‘get’ Barbie or the reaction to the movie, don’t watch it?

  12. Donald Trump on Saturday lashed out at Mike Pence, who happens to also be a key figure in Trump’s criminal elections case, saying his former vice president went to the “dark side.”
    Trump, who is scheduled to speak later in the day, posted the rant on his own social media platform, Truth Social. Pence is also running against Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
    “WOW, it’s finally happened! Liddle’ Mike Pence, a man who was about to be ousted as Governor Indiana until I came along and made him V.P., has gone to the Dark Side,” he wrote on Saturday. “I never told a newly emboldened (not based on his 2% poll numbers!) Pence to put me above the Constitution, or that Mike was ‘too honest.’ He’s delusional, and now he wants to show he’s a tough guy. I once read a major magazine article on Mike. It said he was not a very good person. I was surprised, but the article was right. Sad!”

  13. ‘Labor has nominated lawyer and small business owner Tracey Price as its lord mayoral candidate for the 2024 Brisbane City Council election.’

    @Oliver Sutton

    Good luck to Tracey. I still think it’s likely Labor will be facing more cold winters on Brisbane City Council after the election. The fact long touted star candidate Kate Jones hasn’t thrown her name in the hat is an indication of that. One of the problems is Labor having to provide mayor candidates outside of council. Because more established councilors in council won’t put their name in the hat because they won’t have the safety net of remaining in their council ward if they lose.

    The back story of why you can’t run for Brisbane Lord mayor and be on council. Is then Premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen hated then Labor Lord mayor Clem Jones. Bjelke-Petersen then brought in a rule that you can’t be councilor and run for Lord Mayor. To try and force Jones out. It failed as Jones ran for Lord mayor and continued to win. But when the Goss government came into power it decided not to change the rule back because it didn’t want to cause a stir with the voters. Probably being influenced by being out of power so for so long.

  14. RUSSIA KILLS, WOUNDS PEOPLE AT BLOOD TRANSFUSION CENTRE

    “Russians struck a blood transfusion centre in Kupiansk hromada in Kharkiv Oblast with a guided aerial bomb, killing and wounding people [a hromada is an administrative unit designating a town, village or several villages and their adjacent territories – ed.].

    [President Volodymyr Zelenskyy]: “Russia’s guided aerial bomb against a blood transfusion centre in Ukraine. This evening, Kupiansk hromada in Kharkiv Oblast. Dead and wounded are reported. My condolences! Our rescuers are extinguishing the fire. This war crime alone says everything about Russian aggression. Beasts that destroy everything that simply allows [people] to live. Defeating terrorists is a matter of honour for everyone who values life.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/5/7414380/

  15. This is a very detailed article about what’s going on in the area between Poland, Lithuania and Belarus involving the Wagner Group and Belarus’ military:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-wagner-fighters-threaten-armed-chaos-on-polish-border-with-belarus

    And I’m starting to come to the conclusion that the Wagner ‘coup’ was a staged operation to insert the Wagner Group into Belarus, whilst maintaining the West’s admiration/sympathy.

  16. Plans by the federal government for Australia to generate more than four-fifths of its power from renewable sources by 2030 are coming under pressure amid claims the country is way off track.
    Renewable energy advisory Nexa has joined global analyst Rystad Energy in finding Australia’s green energy share is likely to be barely 60 per cent by the end of the decade under the current rate of progress. As part of ambitious plans unveiled last year, the federal government has set a renewable electricity target of 82 per cent by 2030.
    Australia currently generates between 30 and 35 per cent of its power from renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydro power.
    According to Mr Wood, delays holding up the construction of high-voltage power lines are at the heart of Australia’s slowing progress.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-06/australia-likely-to-fall-short-of-82pc-renewable-energy-target/102689392

  17. C@tmomma @ Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 7:59 am:

    “This is a very detailed article about what’s going on in the area between Poland, Lithuania and Belarus involving the Wagner Group and Belarus’ military:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-wagner-fighters-threaten-armed-chaos-on-polish-border-with-belarus

    And I’m starting to come to the conclusion that the Wagner ‘coup’ was a staged operation to insert the Wagner Group into Belarus, whilst maintaining the West’s admiration/sympathy.”
    ======================

    Not so sure the ‘coup’ was staged, but I am sure that it is supremely foolish of Moscow to threaten a NATO country like Poland so directly that it might actually drag them into an armed altercation.

  18. I had assumed my comment last night regarding a Democrat other than Biden being President at 12:01pm (US EST) on 20 January 2025 (most likely his VP) meant that, barring exceptional circumstances, Biden would be the Democratic nominee at next year’s general election. Apparently that wasn’t clear, so I’ll reiterate: barring exceptional circumstances, Joe Biden will be the 2024 Democratic nominee for President of the United States of America


  19. Scepticsays:
    Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 7:05 am
    Worth remembering where Trump learnt his stuff

    Former Mafia boss John Gotti, and President Donald Trump

    Just Remember: Roy Cohn Taught Him His ABCs

    https://slate.com/human-interest/2019/09/trump-mafia-behavior-analogy-ukraine-transcript.html

    Trump is just a crooked thug… the Klu Klux Klan act is an appropriate end for him.

    Mafia and KKK operated in shadows( atleast as far as know world). But Trump operates openly threatening people openly ‘IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU’.

  20. And, in case anyone thinks I am hedging my bets with the “exceptional circumstances” stuff, I’d like to say that, if we were having this conversation in August 1963, I’d be saying that John F. Kennedy will be the 1964 Democratic nominee for President of the USA.

  21. Enough Already @ #22 Sunday, August 6th, 2023 – 8:10 am

    C@tmomma @ Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 7:59 am:

    “This is a very detailed article about what’s going on in the area between Poland, Lithuania and Belarus involving the Wagner Group and Belarus’ military:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-wagner-fighters-threaten-armed-chaos-on-polish-border-with-belarus

    And I’m starting to come to the conclusion that the Wagner ‘coup’ was a staged operation to insert the Wagner Group into Belarus, whilst maintaining the West’s admiration/sympathy.”
    ======================

    Not so sure the ‘coup’ was staged, but I am sure that it is supremely foolish of Moscow to threaten a NATO country like Poland so directly that it might actually drag them into an armed altercation.

    Enough Already,
    I’ve read that Putin believes his only way to stave off the wolves is to stay involved in a war, of one kind or another. So it doesn’t surprise me that he would be fomenting another one. Even if it is with a NATO country. Maybe he believes he would then be part of a Coalition that would include China, which might give him a fighting chance?

  22. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 8:00 am

    According to Mr Wood, delays holding up the construction of high-voltage power lines are at the heart of Australia’s slowing progress.
    ….

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-06/australia-likely-to-fall-short-of-82pc-renewable-energy-target/102689392
    ——————————-
    Will nimbies and conservationists be the climate death of us? Will the Greens and the Coalition doing the grid wedge get the old win win: anastroturfed political wedge with global warming as a collarteral?

  23. I see that the Greens are still trying to persuade everyone else that a guaranteed half a billion a year in perpetuity buys you no houses. The Greens, having talked themselves into the bastard corner, are doubling up. Nobody else is buying their political schtick.

    Callous stuff if are you an Indigenous person living 20 to a house or car body luxe, a woman escaping domestic violence or a rough sleeper outside Bandt’s inner urban comfy architect-designed purpose-built sanctum.

  24. Shame about Fowles. I was kind of surprised he survived his earlier scandals. I have known him since before he was an MP and he’s a big personality and always has been, but gee the red flags have been there a long time too.

  25. Politcal Nightwatchman, Joh was indeed too clever by half in trying to prise away Clem Jones’s grip on the Brisbane Lord Mayoralty: but, as I recall, the sequence of events was the other way round.

    The Lord Mayor had been elected by popular vote, and Clem was overwhelmingly popular. So Joh (and his Liberal deputy Gordon Chalk) amended the City of Brisbane Act so that the Lord Mayor was elected by and from the aldermen (like a PM or Premier).

    At the following election, Labor campaigned on the message “If you want Clem as Lord Mayor, you have to vote for a Labor alderman”.

    Labor won 20 of the 21 wards. The Courier-Mail ran a Stewart McCrae cartoon of Clem, standing tall in his mayoral robes, bending back the barrels of a double barrel shotgun on Joh and Chalk, their faces blasted black.

    The voting process was later quietly restored to the status quo ante.

  26. Holdenhillbilly @ #21 Sunday, August 6th, 2023 – 8:00 am

    Plans by the federal government for Australia to generate more than four-fifths of its power from renewable sources by 2030 are coming under pressure amid claims the country is way off track.
    Renewable energy advisory Nexa has joined global analyst Rystad Energy in finding Australia’s green energy share is likely to be barely 60 per cent by the end of the decade under the current rate of progress. As part of ambitious plans unveiled last year, the federal government has set a renewable electricity target of 82 per cent by 2030.
    Australia currently generates between 30 and 35 per cent of its power from renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydro power.
    According to Mr Wood, delays holding up the construction of high-voltage power lines are at the heart of Australia’s slowing progress.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-06/australia-likely-to-fall-short-of-82pc-renewable-energy-target/102689392

    I don’t know if the bottleneck is transmission lines, but I do wonder why we are simply not seeing the massive wind/solar farm projects advanced enough that we would expect by now if this target were anything more than a political “aspiration”.

    There has always been a lot of talk about how massive the “pipeline” of new renewable projects is …

    Marija Petkovic, the boss of consultancy Energy Synapse, said the sputtering nature of Australia’s transition had nothing to do with investor enthusiasm.

    Ms Petkovic noted there was “massive” interest from developers keen to build generation, storage and transmission projects.

    She pointed to a pipeline of proposed wind and solar projects amounting to 150GW of capacity as evidence of the money “lining up” to be invested in Australia’s move to renewable energy.

    It was a similar story with batteries, with projects totalling about 50GW on the drawing boards.

    “Obviously, not all these projects will be built,” Ms Petkovic said.

    But I have always suspected that much of this pipeline is little more than the fevered imagination of some dodgy speculators trying to drum up investors to fleece, as the Sun Cable project so clearly was. If we were going to be able to build enough renewables by 2030, we should already know it, because enough of these projects would be sufficiently advanced to tell us so.

    Apart from transmission lines and approved projects in the early construction phases, another indicator would be whether enough of these projects had already placed forward orders in for the required (massive) numbers of Chinese solar panels and/or wind turbines they are going to need – because we sure won’t ever be able to make enough here to meet our needs. And it is not like you can just drop in to your local corner shop and buy these components off-the-shelf. They will have to be manufactured and shipped from China, very likely in the face of ever increasing worldwide demand as the world lurches ever closer to the climate cliff, so this indicator should be easy to verify. I wonder if anyone has done so?

    Call me cynical if you must, but I suspect the real situation – at least here in Australia – is more about this …

    In the absence of such measures, he said governments may be left with few other options than to delay the closure of coal-fired power plants such as Origin’s giant 2880MW Eraring, which is the country’s single biggest generator.

  27. Taylormade says:
    Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 9:15 am
    Will Fowles has always had a bit of the Belinda Neal’s about him.
    ‘Don’t you know who I am’

    ——————-
    LOL Taylormade

  28. Morning all. Thanks for the rundown BK. Slim pickings as you say.

    Cat
    “Enough Already,
    I’ve read that Putin believes his only way to stave off the wolves is to stay involved in a war, of one kind or another. So it doesn’t surprise me that he would be fomenting another one. Even if it is with a NATO country. Maybe he believes he would then be part of a Coalition that would include China, which might give him a fighting chance?”

    Putin may want to provoke something broader. But why would China get involved directly vs NATO? Many NATO countries like France and Germany have a lot of trade with China and have steered a middle course on issues like Taiwan. China getting involved against NATO would lock China out of European markets and vice versa and be a massive own goal.

  29. I have to wonder at Jack Smith’s skill or T****’s lack of it. However it sits, the imbalance is clear. T**** was warned by the judge at his arraignment to NOT intimidate witnesses in his upcoming trial, so he goes and does just that.

    I never told a newly emboldened (not based on his 2% poll numbers!) Pence to put me above the Constitution, or that Mike was “too honest.”” — T**** on Truth Social

    T**** has until 5pm Monday (7am Tuesday, AEST) to respond to yesterday’s request for a protective order by the DOJ. It gives him time for a few more missteps.

    Background
    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/trump-truth-social-smith-evidence-2020/index.html

    Detailed timeline and surprise link to Bannon
    https://www.emptywheel.net/2023/08/05/protection-racket-donald-trump-thinks-hes-more-special-than-steve-bannon/

    Partisan gloating: Smart Jack Smith
    https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/jack-smith-sticks-it-to-donald-trump-with-another-new-court-filing-and-judge-rules-in-smiths-favor/51462/

    Partisan gloating: Dumb T****
    https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/dipshit-donald-trump-begins-attacking-witnesses-after-judge-chatman-orders-him-to-respond-in-protective-order-filing/51461/

  30. Arky @ #35 Sunday, August 6th, 2023 – 9:16 am

    Shame about Fowles. I was kind of surprised he survived his earlier scandals. I have known him since before he was an MP and he’s a big personality and always has been, but gee the red flags have been there a long time too.

    More a shame for the alleged victim of the alleged assault.

    Should have been managed out if the ‘red flags have been there a long time’.

  31. Wat…
    no worries. I agree. Just shooting the breeze on complications that almost certainly wont arise. More a response to the betting odds list that was posted – I dont mind a flutter on a rank outsider if the odds are worth it. I note that Dean Phillips isnt even on the list of odds while possibly the only alternative electable politician considering a run in the primaries.

  32. Soc,
    Simple question. If China are not interested in war, why are they surreptitiously aiding Russia, who are obviously seeking to broaden out the conflict to include NATO countries?

    You would think that a country that was more interested in trade than war wouldn’t be encouraging Russia by supporting its efforts.

  33. There is a supposition that White Supremacists are attracted to and followers of Liberal party, National party and Pauline Hanson One Nation party.
    IMO, they are also attracted to and followers of ALP.
    For example, White Australia policy was supported by L-NP and ALP till it was dismantled. Where do you think white supremacists in ALP went? Some might have drifted to L-NP but a minority stayed with ALP.

    P.S. Former ALP MP Graeme Campbell of Kalgoorlie was a white supremacist.

  34. China is using the war to tighten its economic noose around Russia and to encourage the West to use up its military resources while deflecting attention from its promised destruction of Taiwanese democracy.

    The human costs? China does not do human costs.

    Costs to democracy? China loathes democracy.

    Win win for a megalomaniac.

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