I don’t believe there will be any voting intention polling this week, apart from the usual Roy Morgan – and if you’re really desperate, Kevin Bonham has discovered a trove of its federal polling in a dark corner of its website. Other than that, there’s the following:
• The regular mid-term calculation of population-based state and territory seat entitlements for the House of Representatives was conducted last week, and it confirmed what anyone with a calculator could have worked out in advance, namely that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, Western Australia will gain one, and the size of the chamber will go from 151 to 150 (assuming the government doesn’t go the nuclear option of seeking to increase the size of parliament, which is under active consideration by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters). Antony Green has detailed blog posts on the looming redistributions for New South Wales, suggesting Sydney’s North Shore as the area most likely to have a seat abolished), Victoria, which is harder to call. Western Australia’s existing fifteen seats all have similar current enrolments, making it difficult to identify exactly where the sixteenth will be created, except that it is likely to be in an outer suburban growth area.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick, who is appealing his recent Liberal National Party preselection defeat, has offered legal advice that Peter Dutton was wrongly told by party headquarters that he could not vote unless he attended the ballot, where other party notables were allowed to cast votes in absentia. Rennick lost the final round of the ballot to party treasurer Stuart Fraser by 131 votes to 128. The party’s disputes committee is likely to make a recommendation this week as to whether the preselection should be held again, which a party source is quoted describing as a “real possibility”.
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that a comprehensive internal poll conducted by Labor earlier this month from a sample of 14,300 found 48% in favour of an Indigenous Voice and 47% opposed, with yes leading in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Further, yes voters were more likely to be firmly resolved in their choice, with 40% saying they would definitely vote yes compared with 30% for a definite no.
• A survey encompassing 24 countries by the Pew Research Centre found Australia tying with Japan for having the least favourable attitudes towards China, with 87% expressing an unfavourable view.
• Labor has formally decided against fielding a candidate in Victoria’s Warrandyte by-election on August 26. The three official nominees thus far are Liberal candidate Nicole Werner, Greg Cheesman of the Freedom Party and Cary De Wit of the Democratic Labour Party. Endorsed Greens candidate Tomas Lightbody’s paperwork is evidently still on its way.
• In other by-election news, I can offer the following contribution to the debate as to how Labor in Western Australia should feel about the result in Rockingham on Saturday: they scored 67.6% of the two-party preferred vote in ordinary election day booths, which was hardly different from their 68.8% in the corresponding booths at last year’s federal election. This means Labor almost matched a result it achieved in the context of an election where the statewide two-party result was 55-45 in its favour.
98.6 @ #2496 Saturday, August 5th, 2023 – 9:36 pm
Good choice. That will play well with the suburban midwest voters that his left nut is struggling with.
HH:
I’ve been reading through some of Ramaswamy’s positions recently, and holy hell, the man makes Trump look like a reasonable, consensus-driven moderate. Dude’s a genuine fascist, in the classical sense.
Why is no one considering JFK Jr?
He has now outed himself and is ready to be the Donald’s veep
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/qanon-jfk-jr-alive-trump-b1995594.html
Strangely Jon-Jon now seems to be about 18cms shorter than when he was last seen. I guess he underwent orthopaedic surgery as part of the disguise
The mentality of Americans will never surprise me.
>I’m no Biden stan. I actually think he’d be quite vulnerable if a decent candidate were to run against him in the primaries. Luckily for him, he instead has RFK Jr and Marianne Williamson, two people who – if their public statements are any indication – are either completely insane, sociopathic con artists, or some combination of the two. Marianne Williamson’s polling numbers are terrible, and yet they are still only as high as they are because there’s a cohort of Democrats desperate to vote for someone – anyone – who isn’t Biden. Were Biden facing a progressive challenger who actually had some political experience and credibility and didn’t go about saying crazy shit about diverting hurricanes with positives vibes, Williamson would be lucky to get 1% of the vote.
As an aside, in an attempt to keep some interest in the race, the pollsters do occasionally do polls of Biden against a laundry list of more prominent alternative candidates and in those contests RFK jrs vote drops to around 3% and Williamson drops to 1%. So their support is indeed ‘anybody but Biden’ support.
One day a French mother and Belgian father and other day English mother and Irish father.
And no bullshit.
Simon:
The fact that Williamson is coming third in a three horse race when the guy in second place is a total crackpot like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. should tell a person all they need to know about her electability.
Urgh, Will Fowles, what a stupid thing to do. Especially when he had a similar incident in 2019 related to substance addiction.
He should book himself into rehabilitation right away. That sort of behaviour is just unacceptable.
While watching the Garma Festival on Friday, Ms 98.6 asked me why haven’t Albo and Jodie married.
I said I would ask the PBs they would know.
So ?
Ven, you do realise Nath isn’t actually Dr. Evil, right?
98.6 @ #2508 Saturday, August 5th, 2023 – 9:59 pm
Because they don’t want to (at least not at this point) and it’s not 1950?
RFK has shorter odds than (Gitmo lawyer) DeSanctimonious, according to Sprocket’s list. Now that’s funny(and disturbing – 3rd and 4th)
98.6:
I presume it’s because they don’t want to get married yet.
Ashasays:
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 10:35 pm
98.6:
I presume it’s because they don’t want to get married yet.
………………………………………………………………………………………………..
I’ll pass that on to Ms 98.6.
Anyone else have an opinion ?
The Age 05/08
Victorian state Labor MP Will Fowles has resigned from the parliamentary Labor Party amid assault allegations.
Premier Daniel Andrews said in a statement on Saturday evening that his office was advised of an “alleged incident” on Thursday afternoon.
_____________________
The hits just keep coming for the Andrews govt. The Libs would fancy themselves in a by-election for Ringwood.
By the way, I hate to say i told you so but this is the guy i mentioned a while back here on PB saying a planned junket he was leading to China had disaster written all over it.
I was definitely on the money with that one.
@98.6
Also a major factor would probably arise from Albanese’s previous marriage to Carmel Tebbutt, which led to an unhappy divorce.
I’m guessing that with Albo being Prime Minister that he would prefer to not make big moves like marriage be distractions like that, especially when he’s been through a divorce only a few years ago.
On that topic, it is nice that we seem to have finally reached the point where a person’s marital status isn’t considered an important qualification for the Prime Ministership. It was just over ten years ago when Gillard copped all sorts of appallingly misogynistic attacks for daring to be in *checks notes* a long-term monogamous relationship with a man she wasn’t married to.
Admittedly, Albo being a dude may have a little influence on the near total lack of interest in his personal life, but still… it’s something.
Wat Tyler says :
Because they don’t want to (at least not at this point) and it’s not 1950?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Thanks Wat. Now we’re getting somewhere.
”
Arkysays:
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 9:08 pm
@Ven: Old wealthy barristers are generally pretty conservative, and conservatives wouldn’t see anything wrong with Albrechtson and The Australian or expect them to flagrantly breach an embargo.
I think that’s the entire end of the story for Sofronoff – he gave the media an embargoed copy because he wanted them to be able to report in full once the government released the report, and he gave copies to the ABC and News Corp, no doubt representing both ends of the spectrum to him and thus politically even handed. And there it would have ended but for the basic untrustworthy nature of News Corp hacks which he failed to anticipate.
I don’t think he’s intentionally sought to hand ammunition to News and turn the inquiry into a circus. I think he’s guilty of being very naive though.
”
I don’t think he should have have a copy to media at all before the report is released for public consumption by ACT government. If he found out that the government was selective in its release then he can hand over the copies of the original to media. There is nothing naive about his actions.
He was a retired judge and knows how system works.
TM:
Er, considering that the drunken incident happened in the parliamentary bar, I’m not sure what on earth it has to do with his trip to China?
”
Nicholassays:
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 9:30 pm
Marianne Williamson has about as much chance of becoming the next president as I do.
You’d have to be delusional to think that, Asha. Very caught up in the mainstream media bubble. The Young Fogey energy is strong with you.
”
Asha
May the Force ( I mean Fogey) be with you.
Why would not the ACT Labor/Greens government not release the Report in full?
After considering it and responding to any recommendations contained in it
This Report is about the process of law and the administration of law
There is separation of powers
Remember that no less than the (then) prime minister of the Nation offered a public apology to the lady making the allegation
That action, to my mind anyway, was inappropriate and introduced the defence that a fair trial could not be had
And I would offer, deliberately
For some to introduce that the (apparently) highly regarded jurist did not trust the ACT Government to release the Report in full therefore released it to Murdoch (representing the Right Wing) and the ABC (representing the Left Wing) is abject nonsense of the first order
And what we have come to expect from the Liberal Party and their supporters in this matter
This is a matter of the Liberal Party, exclusively
And who says the ABC is Left Wing?
Which is another illustration of who is offering that defence of the (apparently) highly respected jurist and the abject nonsense of such a presentation
More to the point is why the footage is not available and why the Minister’s Office was cleaned
Given 3rd parties discovered what they discovered you would expect that alarm bells would have gone off automatically and the lady counselled and supported – under immediate advice to the Minister (who was the line management and who should have appropriately responded including by referring the matter to the police ahead of any formal complaint being made by the lady)
She was found on a Saturday morning by people going about their responsibilities within Parliament House in the state of undress reported no less
And the Office was cleaned and the tape destroyed
Tell that to the Right Wing Murdoch
And the Left Wing ABC
have to disagree so he released the report to news corp so it could be diistorted buy them being pro lehrmann to avoid the opposit spin buy the government so the news papper that cheared on the disgraced somyurek because he had no real labor values justinterested in power and is triying to distroy higgins wants to attack andrews over some asult claim from someback bencher no one has heard of yet want to cover up aledged crimes in a ministers office if renalds has nothing towhiy suddinly found a jurer misconduct to stop the trial
not to mention the constant leaks to news corp from somebody thatsofrinoff would allow renalds to use the inquiry to get rid of drumgold its erilevent what happind in 1996
lol tayler made what happind to the investergation in to tayler martin bullying and David van he is still in senate and media has dropped its reporting news corp is basickly the media arm of the lnp keating made a big mistake in allowing murdock to control our media
”
Ashasays:
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 10:30 pm
Ven, you do realise Nath isn’t actually Dr. Evil, right?
”
Honest answer?
I don’t know. 🙂
”
98.6says:
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 10:38 pm
Ashasays:
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 10:35 pm
98.6:
I presume it’s because they don’t want to get married yet.
………………………………………………………………………………………………..
I’ll pass that on to Ms 98.6.
Anyone else have an opinion ?
”
Who knows and who cares in this day and age?
When Canadian PM can separate from his wife after 18 years in marriage and TRUMP can allegedly pay hush money to a call girl to coverup when his wife was pregnant and again allegedly pay money during 2016 Presidential campaign and BOJO allegedly marries his girlfriend while being in office, anything apparently is acceptable.
Ven @ #2527 Saturday, August 5th, 2023 – 11:55 pm
One of those things is not like the others.
”
Kirsdarkesays:
Saturday, August 5, 2023 at 10:41 pm
@98.6
Also a major factor would probably arise from Albanese’s previous marriage to Carmel Tebbutt, which led to an unhappy divorce.
I’m guessing that with Albo being Prime Minister that he would prefer to not make big moves like marriage be distractions like that, especially when he’s been through a divorce only a few years ago.
”
Albanese and Tebbutt were allegedly power couple before Payne and Ayres were.
Nicholas is just trolling for Putin.
I can accept that people genuinely supported Bernie. If you squinted hard enough, his policies made sense. But Williamson is just a total nut job, and I’m sure Nicholas knows that.
And those betting companies that have RFK Jr as 3rd favourite (!!!) are just trolling the mugs.
Ven, did you seriously just compare the Trudeaus’ separation to Trump cheating on his pregnant wife with a porn star?
Relationships break down sometimes. That’s just humans being humans. Better to accept when things are no longer working and move on than to remain in a loveless, miserable marriage just to save face, like so many politicians do.
Are we expecting a Newspoll tomorrow? If we are would think Labor’s fortunes have declined. Maybe a DD is a good option as there isn’t looking like much upside with this government.
”
Ashasays:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 12:43 am
Ven, did you seriously just compare the Trudeaus’ separation to Trump cheating on his pregnant wife with a porn star?
Relationships break down sometimes. That’s just humans being humans. Better to accept when things are no longer working and move on than to remain in a loveless, miserable marriage just to save face, like so many politicians do.
”
Trudeau statement said that they will remain good friends after separation.
“This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and the planet began to heal”
-Obama (2008) (watch the video)
https://twitter.com/AbhishBanerj/status/1687831488191229952?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Ven:
Scandalous! 😮
If another Labor woman became Prime Minister, her marital status, motherhood experience, her deviation traditional female roles, her partners since high school, who tiled her bathroom 30 years ago, her shoe-heel breaking, the colour of her school socks in junior primary school and the length of her hair would suddenly become topics of national security discussed in every medium from a blog with 4 followers to national television to Question Time in Parliament, amid scrutiny equal to the Hubble Telescope targeting a new galaxy.
Asha @ #2535 Sunday, August 6th, 2023 – 1:12 am
IKR! That’s in the same league as (allegedly) using campaign money to pay hush money to a mistress!
New thread.
Ven @ #2632 Sunday, August 6th, 2023 – 1:29 am
My sister-in-law recently separated from her partner. In her words, she and the person she’s had 3 kids with “realized that they work better as friends”.
Sometimes when a relationship breaks down, people say things that aren’t remotely plausible or true.